How many TdF Lance will win?

Discussion in 'Professional Cycling' started by allgoo19, Oct 12, 2003.

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Will Lance win more titles?

  1. 5 meaning he won't win again.

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. 6

    39 vote(s)
    28.1%
  3. 7

    76 vote(s)
    54.7%
  4. 8

    24 vote(s)
    17.3%
  1. jtfleming

    jtfleming New Member

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  2. werner24

    werner24 New Member

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    I do like Tyler Hamilton, he is a great rider. He will at the top again this year. Lance does have alot to work for, everyone will be out after him again this year. Especially after all of the problems he had last year.
    Also, he said in his book, there is the curse of the 6th win. Few have succeeded. One I think. Bad luck always follows a winner, someone always wants a piece of you. I know to me, that must makes me work even harder. So I stand by my prediction...Lance winning the 2004 Tour de France!!
     
  3. Roy Gardiner

    Roy Gardiner New Member

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    Merckx 7 Milan-San Remo, Kelly 7 (consecutive!) Paris-Nice, but 5 is max for TdF.

    And the very best to him.
     
  4. werner24

    werner24 New Member

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    yeah, i remember there were a couple, one was back in the 60's right?
     
  5. Roy Gardiner

    Roy Gardiner New Member

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    Anquetil '57 (1st tour) then '61/2/3/4 the last by 55sec then the closest ever finish.

    retd ill 58, beaten 59, did not ride 60 (won Giro), led from 1st day all the way through 61, did not ride 65, retd ill 66.

    Then Merckx, Hinault, Indurain, Armstrong
     
  6. werner24

    werner24 New Member

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    Cool! Thanks for the insite. It is always nice to know a little bit of history!!:p
     
  7. Madone

    Madone New Member

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    5 is the magic number fot the TdF, when it's busted every thing previoulsy will loose its magic too, I watched for over 20yrs, I ridden while pretending to be any one of the 3-5 time winners, and would like to see the 5 unsurpassed, but I'm a LA supporter (oh and Welsh not American hope thast allowed) I want him to do it as I think he is the best of the best of racing cyclists of his era, thats all any one can be, he's beaten the competion when they have been at their best and him at his worst, he's hammered them when he's been at his best, and they (or at least one or two) have been found guilty of doping.
    Jan U. imho was at his best this year, but agree with this form and a stronger team will make the 04TdF another classic, but USPS will also strength the team for the battle, Tyler to will benefit from a new team and injury free will be a challenger, Beloki I doubt will ever win the race while those named above still ride.
    So no claims of racing pedigree from me, no accusations of current doppers, just a wish to witness a dream and see LA do 6 and 7 but if he fails, I dont think we have yet seen a rider amongst the peleton who is capable of reaching 5 for a long time yet, JU and TH are to old to achive it, Beloki not lucky enough.
    The one thing that many people also over look is that 5 may be the number that only a few have achived (Anquetil, Merckx, HinULT) but a straighT 5 has only been done by two Indurain and Armstrong, I feel privallaged to have wittnessed both, (if only on TV)
    wHILE I'M ABLE TO FOLLOW THIS SPORT AND lA RIDES A BIKE I'LL WANT HIM TO WIN
     
  8. Roy Gardiner

    Roy Gardiner New Member

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    JU is 28 this year, approaching his best two best years (historically TdF men are best in late twenties, generally). LA and TH are indeed older and will be starting to lose strength. JU has the talent; he lost in '98 in one disastous hour and has self-defeated since then. He's my tip for next year - especially back with a really top team and 12 full months preparation.

    Anquetil did not start in '65 when still at the peak of his strength; bearing in mind he had then won 5, 4 straight, with the Giro/Tour double in '64. The previous record was 3 (Bobet, 53/4/5 IIRC). Anquetil was so dominant that he argued that a 6th win would not increase his earning power! He made his mark that year with the incredible Dauphine/Bordeaux Paris double.
     
  9. Memphmann

    Memphmann New Member

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    Yet more evidence to prove my point. LA may be one of the greatest TdF riders, but not overall. In the last five years, has he won any other MAJOR race? Like some of the greats from years past. He has the ability to win the TdF, but not another....

    Memph
     
  10. davidbod

    davidbod New Member

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    Who else among the top five finishers in the last 5 TDFs has made a mark of winning a MAJOR race. That's just the nature of the competition these days, take it or leave it. The level of competition is so high you can only win if you train all out for the TDF and nothing else. Gone are the days when Eddie was a mad man on every race he rode in all season long. You can compare the two, but they are apples and oranges.

    As far as Lance and USPS goes, I think he will win his 6th and then either retire or help another USPS rider win. Don't forget that when Roberto and USPS won the Vuelta it was the first time in many years that a team had placed 2 different riders on the top podium of 2 major stage races. To say they are deep is an understatement.

    As for me the fan, I think it has been amazing watching Armstrong mature over the past 5 TDFs. Through his foundation, I am also aware of what he has done off of the bike. personally I can't wait to see what he does when he retires.
     
  11. Roy Gardiner

    Roy Gardiner New Member

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    We have 2 threads converging, who's the greatest ever and TdF wins for Lance, but I expect everyone follows both :)

    Very good point. However, 5 time winners Indurain, Hinault, Merckx, Anquetil all did the Giro/tour double, as have Roche and Coppi (is that the full set?), covering the entire post-WWII period. Lance hasn't tried, which IMO disqualifies him for consideration as 'greatest ever'.
    No winner has ever continued as a helper. I don't mean within one race after his chance has gone (e.g. Poulidor/Pingeon) but for an entire tour. More usual is treachery (e.g. Hinault/Lemond). He wouldn't earn much money, but the respect would be huge.

    But I don't think so; both USPS and LA will quit cycling after Lance finishes off the podium next year. The USPS budget is already coming in for intense criticism, without Lance they won't be able to sustain the team. But I wouldn't mind being wrong on all counts.
     
  12. Roy Gardiner

    Roy Gardiner New Member

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    If LA decided to ride the Tour not to win but to help others - young USA riders coming up, for instance - and USPS continues, LA might still be riding the tour when he's 40.

    Chances? Zero. But what a thought! :) :eek:
     
  13. Memphmann

    Memphmann New Member

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    You made the same point as I in the other thread. LA is one of the greatest TdF riders, but not the geatest overall rider. His lack of winning other major races while TdF wins are his downfall. If he is so talented and strong, he would win other. He knows his weakness. He is a 3 week rider and not an entire season.

    He has not won a TdF ITT in years and shows his weakness. I tuly do not see him winning next year. Unless USPS hires JU to pull his arse to victory......

    Memph
     
  14. Madone

    Madone New Member

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    Maybe he needs you as a coach Memph, you talk the talk, and sure seem to know all about his weakness, hope LA never has to ride against you, you'd rip his legs of man, what is it you think maybe LA was a Bear in a former life who bit the head of a wolf, give the guy a break, think about what he's done not what you think he should have done.
     
  15. Roy Gardiner

    Roy Gardiner New Member

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    I think Memph is just saying LA is perhaps not the greatest ever, maybe one or two guys are better, perhaps Merckx and erm, er...

    Lance is a great rider and I think all here agree on that.
     
  16. davidbod

    davidbod New Member

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    I quess you forgot about 2002 when he won the Prologue and then the stage 19 ITT by almost a minute.

    As far as JU goes, when he is racing Armstrong he is riding for second and he knows it. You can see it in his face. Even if he were the physical equal of Armstrong he does not have the team tactics nor the drive to win over Armstrong.
     
  17. Memphmann

    Memphmann New Member

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    I could only wish to be as good as LA. Then again, I would not have his same goals. I would ride for the points championship more then the TDF.

    He has done well, just not as well as the TRUE greats of the sport...

    Memph
     
  18. chrisl

    chrisl New Member

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    All your posts have been a great read but I must say, I don't think Lance will do it again next year.

    I'm pretty sure it'll be Ullrich. He now has the 'family' behind him with the recent birth of his daughter. Few would argue against his talent and nowhe has the team. Lance on the other hand has Sandra...

    Whether it's completely true or not, I'm sure there is something in it and I can't imagine a relationship like that won't interfere with the incredible discipline required to be the best in the TDF.

    Don't get me wrong, I've been a huge fan of LA since his tour in '99 and his achievements are simply astounding but I think his new personal life will take it's toll...we'll see...

    CL
     
  19. Roy Gardiner

    Roy Gardiner New Member

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    I reckon Ullrich, too, because of the reasons you give, meaning a 12 month clear run at it, which he's not had for a while.

    But perhaps you underestimate LA. He has shown that he has two speeds, 0% and 100%. He's stuck 100% with everyone who supported him through cancer, the others are gone. Dave Millar famously called him up whilst he - Dave - was on the beer and LA was out training. In November. I think that nothing will stand in his way in his preparation, as his separation (much more stressful than anyone new, even Sandra!) didn't.
     
  20. yayaya

    yayaya New Member

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    I bet if you asked 20 Euro cyclist if they could win either the points championship or the TDF I'm willing to bet the greater percentage would chose the TDF. The tour is in a league of its own in regards to other races, the racers themselves say so. However you may be one of the ones who would say no to the tour and that your opinion and I respect that, I just think the majority would chose the Tour. He has won a couple of major races pre- tour years, lets see,Midi Libre - 1st
    Dauphine - 1st -2002,
    - Jun 19-28 Tour of Switzerland: GC Winner-2001,Aug 27 GP Eddy Merckx, Belgium: 1st (teamed with teammate Viatcheslav Ekimov of Russia), Sep 16 GP Des Nations, France: first-2000,Winner, Fleche Wallone-1996, ok not a win but 2nd place, Liege-Bastogne-Liege -96,Winner, Classica San Sebastian-1995 1993-Winner, World Championships ,2nd place, Championship of Zurich 1992 -first year as a pro.

    The guy has never really foused on any races other than the tour since 99, thats the one he wants. Do you really think if the guy focused on other races like say San Sebastion or other classics races every year that he wouldn't have won a least some percentage of them? No, I dont think he is the greatest cyclist ever, imho Mercx is in a league by himself. Do I think LA is the best Tour rider ever?, maybe its hard to compare differnt eras, defineatly one of the top 3 I would say. Just my humble opinion.
     
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