beerco said:
Where do you get this idea from? I'm pretty sure that someone with average genetics can probably make it up to cat 2 or 1, but someone with substandard genetics as a domestic pro? Do you have any examples?
Using Coggan's charts, we're talking about an FT of around 350w for a 150lb rider at the bottom end of domestic pro. A 350w FT is certainly not a product of substandard genetics, and being at the bottom end of domestic pro is a very hard life indeed.
Well lets look at a pretty much average racer. Cat 3 150 lbs- doesn't consider themself to be genetical blessed and generally have to work for what they get. FTP= 270 or about 4/kg- Not much of a sprint. They reached this level on an average of about 9-12 hours per week. Lets say they started young enough to have a chance at pro. I firmly believe that with another three- five years of training, Increasing up towards the 20-25 hrs/ week that most pros are capable of that this person could attain the 5.15 w/kg or higher. This is not including the benefits from treating training as your full time job, time at altitude, etc.
If a person has a good sprint then they probably don't need 5.15 w/kg either. It's not that hard to suck wheels. For example IIRC erik saunders has some results as a domestic pro and his FTP is 4.75.
Also, there is really not that much of a difference between a cat 1 or 2 and a lower level domestic pro. Just look at the TT results of any big p12 stage race and there are always amatuers mixed right in. That said, the pros usually take the top 5.
beerco said:
If you look at successful pros, they do indeed kick butt right out of the gates, especially in time trailing (even the road sprinters) at the lower levels. You may be right that someone with domestic pro-pack fill potential will not slaughter them right out of the gates but in my opinion, if that's the hand you were dealt, you'd be much better off working for a living and being a weekend warrior cat 1 for the reasons you outlined in your last paragraph
Still, no JR is going to win their first races in even a remotely competitve area. In most any decent sized area there very well may be a cat 2 Jr and a handful of 3s thrown in the JR field. The newbie is simply not going to beat JRs of that caliber no matter how geneticall gifted he is. Fitness takes time and to boot the newbie simply doesn't know how to race at all. The newbie is also a few years younger then the JRs he is competing against and that is a further disadvantage.
The "genetically gifted" rider might progress faster but individual differences are present in that respect too. Some riders progress incredibly fast but level out earlier and some riders seem to never stop improving.
Basically, what I am saying about the genetic situation is that too often it is used as an excuse by people who aren't even close to the edge of their envelope. The genetic excuse is used too often to diminish great achievements and justify poor ones. Another problem in the situation is that a person may follow the exact same training program as someone else and not get the same results. They say that it is genetics but it is probably either mental or their physioogy would simply adapt much better to a different program.
One program would produce two different results in riders with the same potential. The difference lies in the fact that some people simply adapt to different formats. in different ways.
Also, according to "physiology of sport and exercise" genetics account for 25-50% of the variation in vo2max so 50 is on the high end. Also of interest is the diagram of a study (Brouchard) they did with mono and dizygous twins was that there was a correlation but some monozygous twins had differences of 15 ml/min/kg between them. Some dizygous twins had differences of 20 points between them. If they are twins then they should have much smaller differences then that.
More importantly to the OP. From what I have read
most of the variation due to genetics was in the response to training not in the untrained state where the differences where much smaller.
13 year olds taking v02 tests to determine life choices is a bad idea.
Greg