Slightly off topic - but here is a pertinent article from David Walsh in todays Times newspaper :
December 23, 2007
Stuck records
A report claims that no world records will be set after 2060. Could this be the year athletics shakes off its dodgy past?
September 1988 was Florence Griffith-Joyner’s month to leave us the memories. With her flowing stride, painted fingernails and outrageous running suits, she was the star turn at the Seoul Olympics. The gold medals she won in the 100m, 200m and sprint relay were merely confirmation of what was so wonderfully obvious in the performance. Flo-Jo, as she was affectionately known, was the fastest, most graceful woman athlete we had ever seen.
Earlier in the summer she had run an extraordinary 10.49sec for the 100m at the US Olympic trials in Indianapolis. Not so much a world record as a time that looked imperiously down on every other time in the event. Then at Seoul came a performance even more mind-boggling. In the quarter-final of the 200m, Flo-Jo cruised clear of the opposition and when qualification for the next round was assured, she decelerated. It wasn’t an abrupt slowing down but a gradual easing back on the throttle. Most favourites do the same when running heats. The difference was that her time in that quarter-final was a world record. Flo-Jo remains the world record-holder at 100m and 200m. There were suspicions that she must have taken drugs, but, at the time, little evidence that she did.
Her death in 1998 was reported by her husband, Al Joyner, and when Orange County deputy coroner Leslie Meader began her investigation, she found Flo-Jo lying in a bedroom of the couple’s house on Bluejay Street in Mission Viejo, California. The 38-year-old Griffith-Joyner was lying face-down into the pillow. Her arms were bent at the elbows, with the hands near the shoulders; one of the trademark fingernails was broken. Another would break during fingerprinting.
The coroner found that Griffith-Joyner suffocated during a severe epileptic seizure. Some experts cast doubt on this, saying that death through asphyxiation was an extremely unlikely complication after an epileptic seizure. Speculation that her death was somehow connected to her athletic career and possible steroid abuse continued long after the coroner’s office concluded its investigation.
Kristina Rebelo, a journalist who covered the coroner’s investigation and continued to ask questions about Griffith-Joyner, spoke to two doctors who admitted giving banned drugs to the athlete. She also spoke to a woman at a gymnasium who said she had given human growth hormone to Griffith-Joyner. Many fans refuse to believe the evidence that points to doping.
The likelihood is that as long as athletics exist, so the name of Florence Griffith-Joyner will endure. According to a study conducted at France’s biomedical and epidemiological institute of sport (Irmes), which analysed 3,260 world records going back to the first modern Olympics in 1896, humans have reached their physiological limits, and after the year 2060, there will be no more world records.
Jean-Francois Toussaint, head of Irmes, says: “We could see there was a common pattern for all the events we analysed and that our mathematical model is able to predict the development of world records. It is extremely accurate when correlated to world record values throughout the Olympic era.” Based on its analyses, Toussaint’s team predicts that in most of the quantifiable Olympic sports, the era of world records is drawing to a close. “We started our study in 1896, when we estimate people were operating at 75% of their physiological capacity. We are now at 99%. When we say there will be no more world records after 2060, it should not be forgotten that in about half of the events, there will be no world records after 2027.”
Athletics is the sport in which world records will first become set in stone. Then weightlifting. They will be followed by sports more affected by technique and technology, such as swimming and rowing.
Many people believe some of today’s athletic records will never be broken.
Griffith-Joyner’s time for the 100m remains untouched. Only one other woman has run under 10.7sec. That was Marion Jones, who has since confessed to doping; her time no longer counts. That leaves Christine Arron’s 10.73sec as the second fastest of all time, but the 0.24sec, difference between her time and the world record is a lifetime in sprint racing.
“When you apply our model to the records,” says Toussaint, “you will end up with records that are logical and ones that are illogical. Some that are coherent and some records that are epidemiological deadends. The women’s 100m record is an example of an epidemiological deadend.” Is the scientist saying that there is nowhere for this record to go because it already represents a female sprinter competing beyond her physiological limits? Something she achieved through doping? “You may suspect doping, and you may be right, but these records have their own logic,” he responds. “We have to believe them because they were measured in numerical terms. Griffith-Joyner ran the 100m in 10.49sec, that is exactly what she did, a woman from our own species. The next question may be, ‘How did she do it?’ We analyse all these causes and see if these conditions can be repeated. And it seems they cannot be any more.”
Toussaint prefers to see the bigger picture: “The creation of world records is very related to the external environment. We see precisely the impact of world wars, a time when world records were much less numerous. After the second world war, there was a very important increase in the number of world records. Then, after the Mexico Games in 1968, there is a constant decline in the number of world records. Doping was a big factor in the sport in the 1970s, but that coincided with a time when mankind was starting to reach his limits anyway. It should also be said that doping has always been part of the landscape, not only in the 20th century, but back in the ancient Olympics. And its presence doesn’t change the global pattern at all.”
A simple question remains to be resolved: how should we react to Griffith-Joyner’s place in the record books? Every time there is an Olympic or world championship final, the women’s 100m world champion will glance up at the electronic screen to review her run and check on her time. At the top of the screen, in small writing, will be Flo-Jo’s 10.49.
Should it be seen as a reminder of the sport’s troubled past or as the summit of female athleticism? John Hoberman, head of Germanic studies at the University of Texas, has devoted much time to understanding the question of doping in sport. He has read what has been written about the French study and admits to being impressed by the amount of data the team analysed. He agrees with the overall conclusion that there will be few world records in the future. “The Age of Exhaustion has already set in,” he says.
Hoberman’s reservation about scientific studies and the contribution of intellectuals to sporting questions is that they often don’t understand the extent and the impact of doping; consequently, they underestimate its influence. “I would question using Florence Griffith-Joyner’s 10.49sec as a valid data point. And there is no doubt that doping has allowed athletes to perform beyond their natural physiological capacities. Three of the five men who have run under 9.80sec in the 100m [Ben Johnson, Tim Montgomery, Justin Gatlin] have tested positive for anabolic steroids. Look at the all-time performance list in the shot put – it’s virtually wall-to-wall dopers at the top.”
World records were once considered the crown jewels of sport, especially in athletics and Olympic sport. From Roger Bannister to Sebastian Coe, generations of British sports followers were nurtured on world-class performances by the country’s middle-distance runners. When Bob Beamon smashed the world long jump record by almost 2ft at the 1968 Olympics, those who witnessed the feat had a memory that could never be forgotten.
Beamon nearly missed the final, fouling on his first two jumps in qualifying before getting through on his last attempt. For the next day’s final, the Welsh athlete Lynn Davies was one of the favourites. Beamon was fourth to jump. After the first three jumpers had fouled, he stood on the runway, muttering over and over to himself, “Don’t foul, don’t foul.” He was a sub-10sec athlete for 100 yards, and when he hit the take-off board, he seemed to fly into orbit. Observers estimated that he sailed 5½ to 6ft into the air, and he hit the sand so hard, he bounded straight back up and landed outside the pit.
“That’s over 28ft,” said American long-jumper Ralph Boston to Davies. “On his first jump,” replied Davies, “it can’t be.”
They moved closer to the pit to get a better view as officials slid the marker of the measuring device down its rail to the point where Beamon’s back foot had landed. Before it got there, the marker slid off its rail. It didn’t go that far. Turning to Beamon, the nearest official said, “Fantastic, fantastic.” An old-style steel tape was called for and the distance was measured twice before the result was flashed up on the electronic scoreboard. “8.90m”, which was 29ft 2½in, shattering Boston’s old mark of 27ft 4Çin.
The new world record-holder didn’t understand metric measurements and asked Boston how he had done. “Bob,” said his teammate, “you’ve jumped over 29ft.” “What do I do now?” asked Beamon. He took one more jump, which was almost 3ft short of his first, then passed on his remaining four opportunities. Davies was beaten before he started. “I can’t go on,” he said to Boston, “What is the point? We’ll all look silly.” The record went from 27 to 29ft, and a further 12 years would pass before any athlete managed to produce a 28ft jump.
Beamon’s jump may have been the most glorious feat in Olympic history. It was certainly sport’s greatest world record. There weren’t any suspicions about Beamon, and all the evidence pointed to one moment of almost freakish brilliance – that second when a great athlete produces a performance that defies rational explanation. But it is also a performance from the past that will not be repeated, because man no longer has the capacity to improve by that amount.
With the widespread doping of the past 3½ decades, records have been set that puzzled as much as thrilled, that led to questions rather than celebrations. Sport has picked up the tab for its inability to deal with doping. “Doped record-holders have devalued the world record list,” says Hoberman. “In athletics, the IAAF hasn’t lifted a finger to do anything about it.”
Removing tainted records from the books is not straightforward. More than two years ago, the former East German sprinter Ines Geipel asked that her name be removed from the list of four athletes who had set the German club record for the 4 x 100m. Geipel was part of the SC Motor Jena team that set the record in 1984, and as she and her fellow athletes had been part of the GDR’s state-sponsored doping programme, she did not want to be associated with the record.
Having her name deleted from the list was much more complicated than it might have been, and Geipel suffered criticism from her former teammates because of her renunciation of the record. Eventually her name was removed but the record remains, a national 4 x 100m record that is credited to three athletes. Now, according to Toussaint and his Irmes team, the problem of world records is about to fade away.
After spending so much time on the records of Olympic and world champions, Toussaint knows what kind of sport he prefers. “There is that very nice image from the 800m at the Highland Games in Scotland last summer. I loved the race, with the rain and four athletes, and the way they were running for the pleasure of running. It is a very nice image of sport, of people competing for the fun, for the physical expression of just running round a field.”
Beaten at last ...
PIETRO MENEA, MEN’S 200m In 1979 the Italian set a best for the distance of 19.72sec. He was the last white athlete to hold a sprint record. Despite the subsequent efforts of Carl Lewis, a steroid-boosted Ben Johnson, Frankie Fredericks and other leading runners, it was not until June 1996 that the record was broken, when Michael Johnson ran 19.66sec. He then lowered the mark to 19.32sec at the Atlanta Olympics five weeks later. No sprinter has come close to matching that
SEBASTIAN COE, MEN’S 800m In July 1997 the Kenyan-turned-Dane Wilson Kipketer equalled Coe’s 800m record of 1min 41.73sec, set in Florence in 1981. The next month he beat the time twice, bringing the record down by more than half a second. Coe described Kipketer’s run as ‘phenomenal’. The Briton had also set a world 1,000m record in Oslo in 1981. That was not beaten until 1999, when Kenyan Noah Ngeny took more than a quarter of a second off the mark
BOB BEAMON, MEN’S LONG JUMP Defending Olympic champion Lynn Davies told Beamon that he had ‘destroyed this event’ after his 8.90m record at the Mexico Games in 1968. It was 55cm longer than the previous best. Twenty-three years later, at the world championships in Tokyo, American Mike Powell beat that mark by 5cm, with silver medallist Carl Lewis also surpassing Beamon’s jump that night
... but still going
JANET EVANS, 800M FREESTYLE The longest held current record in the pool was set by Evans in 1989. She also held 400m and 1500m records, lasting 18 and 19 years respectively.
How they fell
First record - Now
100m
Men 10.6 (1912) 9.74
Women 11.7 (1934) 10.49
200m
Men 20.6 (1951) 19.32
Women 24.1 (1932) 21.34
400m
Men 47.8 (1900) 43.18
Women 57.0 (1957) 47.60
800m
Men 1:52.8 (1908) 1:41.11
Women 2:16.8 (1928) 1:53.28
1500m
Men 3:56.8 (1912) 3:26.00
Women 5:18.4 (1927) 3:50.46
5000m
Men 15:01.2 (1908) 12:37.35
Women 15:41.4 (1977) 14:16.63
10000m
Men 31:02.4 (1904) 26:17.53
Women 32:17.19 (1981) 29:31.78