If Lance doesn't ride, who wins 2005 TdF???

[Brian Cotgrove]

G'day all' everybody seems to think it's a Lance and Jan show?

Wrong?

There are as many other riders more capable of winning the tour, although a strong team is essential, there is more than one team/teams also capable of getting their top rider over the line.

Lance or Jan do not have all the answers, and although I would not wish missfortune on any rider, both Lance and Jan are subject to crashes too.

A sustantial crash could put all the favourites out in one foul swoop.

I will throw a cat amongst the pidgeons here and say, watch out for "Brad McGee", not only can he time trial and has worn the yellow jersey with his ability, when it comes to the mountains he has concentrated on that part of his game for this year.

As a rider he is maturing at the right time in his career, he also has a good support team, e3xcellent management, a number of other riders including other Australians, who will work for him, just as the others do for their respective leaders?

For my money I say go "Brad McGee", show 'em how it's done mate?

Keep the wheels in motion, and dont Look back, unless it's to see who you dropped on the last climb? TBC

 

[micron]

I don't have any strong opinions, just hope we get an open and interesting Armstrong-free Tour.

I think it'll do the race good not to be dominated by one team and their strategy - maybe we'll get a hint of post-Armstrong racing where several riders and teams compete instead of one team getting it all their own way and the rest just giving in.

 

[limerickman]

I'd like to see a competitive TDF, regardless of whatever LA decides to partake.

I would like to see riders attack more - I thought Basso was very disappointing in the 2004 TDF, he appeared to settle for second place and in doing so could have lost out to Kloden in the end.
He should have tried to attack LA - he may not have succeeded but at least he would have negated the Kloden threat.

The 2005 event will hopefully be a better competition.
I think Vino will make a big impression - for me he has been the best cyclist for the past couple of seasons.
I will be curious to see if Cunego tries to go for a podium spot.
Kloden might well consolidate and could be a threat.

Others to watch for will be Beloki, Sastre, Chavenal, Menchov, De Galdeano.

As ever I would like to see Jan win it - for me he's the most gifted cyclist of
this era.
However if LA decides to defend - he's got to be favourite.

 

[gntlmn]

I'd give it less than 1% probability that Lance doesn't ride the 2005 Tour. This makes the conversation pretty much a moot point as to who would win if he didn't show. The odds are just too remote. There are events perhaps more remote, like the following: 2nd Bubonic plague striking Europe, fire burning entire country of France, earthquake tearing Europe apart and submerging entire countries to form a new coastline along the Russian border, or that the average speed of the peloton will exceed 70 kph, rendering all attacks futile except in the mountains. I still wouldn't put money on Lance not showing.

 

[MJtje]

Haha I give it 1% probability that lance doesn't win the tour

I'd give it less than 1% probability that Lance doesn't ride the 2005 Tour. This makes the conversation pretty much a moot point as to who would win if he didn't show. The odds are just too remote. There are events perhaps more remote, like the following: 2nd Bubonic plague striking Europe, fire burning entire country of France, earthquake tearing Europe apart and submerging entire countries to form a new coastline along the Russian border, or that the average speed of the peloton will exceed 70 kph, rendering all attacks futile except in the mountains. I still wouldn't put money on Lance not showing.

 

[meehs]

I'd give it less than 1% probability that Lance doesn't ride the 2005 Tour. This makes the conversation pretty much a moot point as to who would win if he didn't show. The odds are just too remote. There are events perhaps more remote, like the following: 2nd Bubonic plague striking Europe, fire burning entire country of France, earthquake tearing Europe apart and submerging entire countries to form a new coastline along the Russian border, or that the average speed of the peloton will exceed 70 kph, rendering all attacks futile except in the mountains. I still wouldn't put money on Lance not showing.

Yeah but when this thread originated (last July!) it wasn't as obvious that Armstrong would be riding the TdF this year.

 

[gntlmn]

Yeah but when this thread originated (last July!) it wasn't as obvious that Armstrong would be riding the TdF this year.

That's for sure. Furthermore, it wasn't until quite a while later that it became widely known that Lance had been suffering from tendonitis during the latter part of the 2004 Tour. That was enough information to cast more than a 1% doubt he would show in 2005, without even considering the retirement question. We don't hear him complaining about tendonitis anymore. It must be healed.