If Lance doesn't ride, who wins 2005 TdF???

[meehs]

Oops, I forgot to answer the original post! I guess if Armstrong's not there next year for some odd reason, I'd still say Ullrich has the best chance. Provided he escapes from T-Mobile somehow! The guy has all the talent in the world.

 

[gntlmn]

I think there might be quite a bit of truth to that actually. I doubt the American media will play it up to the extent that they did this year because (like you said) the record has already been broken.

Remember the year when Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa were chasing Roger Maris' 61 home run record? The media made a big deal about it. But then when Barry Bonds broke McGwire's record, the media didn't make much of a to do about it. The key is that the 61 HR record had stood for such a long time, around 40 years.

I think you might have a point on this one.

 

[gntlmn]

All I have to say is Basso is way overrated. Sure, he stayed with Armstrong in the mountains, but he still lost to him by 6:40 (and with only 1 long time trial). The Ullrich, Vinokourov, and Hamilton of last year would have owned him this year. Basso also lacks that winning instinct that characterizes champions (I believe Basso's Tour stage win this year was his first pro win ever). His podium spot this year was a reflection of poor competition, not personal excellence. Bjarne Riis is a brilliant team director, but Basso is only due for disappointment next year.

Armstrong wasn't a very good TT man in his early 20's either. He improved a lot later. I have a feeling you may be right about Basso though. He should be at about his best now for TT--if not his best, at least very close. By the time Armstrong was 26, he was recovering from cancer and en route to his first Tour win a year later.

I'm contradicting myself with regard to Basso. I'm beginning to realize that indeed, he may be overrated at this point. If he can't TT better, he will not be a Tour winner.

 

[Powerful Pete]

Hhhm, beat on Basso thread. But what about Basso showing regular improvements - 11th, 7th, 3rd. Last year he was not able to stay with the attacks in the mountains, this year he was able to. His TTing has improved, although everything is relative...

As for the lack of competition, dunno. Not trying to tick anyone off, but we have Jan who continues to excel in screwing up his training. Tyler cannot stay on a bike long enough to finish a stage (IMHO, he will never win anything, he seems to have the bike handling abilities of a toddler). Of the current bunch, Vino would be the most credible threat... but then again, we have a reasonable chance on counting t-mobile to screw things up again (you know, two kinda captains, if not three with Kloden, Zabel, and the whole training thang). Then of course we are not even looking at the 'outsiders' - people like Mayo and all that gang. Don't know whether this year was a fluke for them, or last year was...

I agree with everyone that Basso does not have the killer instinct. Just have to see if Bjarne can make him meaner over the coming year.

And we can look forward to senseless discussions on this matter for a WHOLE YEAR!

 

[derKaiser]

Hhhm, beat on Basso thread. But what about Basso showing regular improvements - 11th, 7th, 3rd. Last year he was not able to stay with the attacks in the mountains, this year he was able to. His TTing has improved, although everything is relative...

As for the lack of competition, dunno. Not trying to tick anyone off, but we have Jan who continues to excel in screwing up his training. Tyler cannot stay on a bike long enough to finish a stage (IMHO, he will never win anything, he seems to have the bike handling abilities of a toddler). Of the current bunch, Vino would be the most credible threat... but then again, we have a reasonable chance on counting t-mobile to screw things up again (you know, two kinda captains, if not three with Kloden, Zabel, and the whole training thang). Then of course we are not even looking at the 'outsiders' - people like Mayo and all that gang. Don't know whether this year was a fluke for them, or last year was...

I agree with everyone that Basso does not have the killer instinct. Just have to see if Bjarne can make him meaner over the coming year.

And we can look forward to senseless discussions on this matter for a WHOLE YEAR!

Yeah, as far as Mayo and Zubeldia go, it's hard to say which year was the fluke. I think Zubeldia's total lack of results this year points to his 5th place finish being a fluke, but I think Mayo just hit poor form at the wrong time this year. His Mt. Ventoux time trial at the Dauphine, though, should put to rest this argument.

If Armstrong doesn't ride next year, here's my podium:

1) Ullrich
2) Hamilton
3) Vino

My dark horse, though, is Vladimir Karpets. He's going to win the Tour someday.

 

[mocka58]

Ullrich's got what it takes once he's free of Lance's shadow

I was having Tour withdrawal so I watched my 2003 Tour dvd and I had forgotten just how well Jan rode last year. He is definitely the best of the rest by a fair distance. He probably has at least a couple of big TDF performances left in him. BUT HE MUST TRAIN PROPERLY.

 

[mutu]

I was having Tour withdrawal so I watched my 2003 Tour dvd and I had forgotten just how well Jan rode last year. He is definitely the best of the rest by a fair distance. He probably has at least a couple of big TDF performances left in him. BUT HE MUST TRAIN PROPERLY.

He will definitelly win '05 without LA, although that will substract from the weight of the win somehow !!! I'm JU fan, and I would like him to win, preferably with LA in. JU winning will be a record if you think about it, the most far apart wins ever !!!
However, I'm 100% positive LA will be there next year or he's done with TDF... a year off sounds to me like over, he won't be back.

 

[patch70]

I posted this question elsewhere but interested in opinions:
Looking towards future tour winners, there doesn't really seem to be anyone on the immediate horizon with Lance's skills as both a climber and a time trialler. If the future stars can only have one of these, which is better?
Do you think it is better to start as a good climber and then train yourself to be able time trial? eg Cunego, Basso, Mayo.
Or, is it better to be a good time trialler and then train yourself to climb? eg Popovych, Gontchar, McGee, Rogers (okay, I am Australian!)

 

[drebro]

My dark horse, though, is Vladimir Karpets. He's going to win the Tour someday.[/QUOTE]
I think he could do big things in the future too. He is only 23, I think. I think he may be a Russian Indurain, with the TT ability, the height, and the remnants of the same team. Does Illes Beleares (sp?) /Banesto still have Echavarri (sp?) as directeur sportif/manager as when Indurain rode?
I have to side with the folks defending Basso, though perhaps only because I like him as a rider. I admit he does not have the panache, perhaps, but his consistency may be enough for him to ride to victory like Indurain did, in a manner some said was boring. Only Basso would leave the bunch behind in the mountains and hang tough in the TTs, opposite what Big Mig did.

 

[mitosis]

Kloden was sick? or something last two years right?
What happened and will it affect him long term?

I read somewhere that Ullrich had a virus during this years tour. Saying it after the race always sounds like an excuse but if it affected his performance much he might win in 2005 even if Lance races.

 

[Powerful Pete]

JU winning will be a record if you think about it, the most far apart wins ever !!!

Then he would have to win in 2007. If I am not mistaken, the record in time between wins is with Gino Bartali, who won the Tour in 1938 and in 1948 (I may be wrong, so, all you cycling history buffs, give us the story!).

 

[paris_boy]

Then he would have to win in 2007. If I am not mistaken, the record in time between wins is with Gino Bartali, who won the Tour in 1938 and in 1948 (I may be wrong, so, all you cycling history buffs, give us the story!).

Bartali was the first rider to win the Tour de France overall title and mountains jersey in one year, 1938. He repeated the same feat ten years later in 1948, the year in which he won seven stages. These were the only years in which he won the Tour de France.

http://www.cyclinghalloffame.com/riders/rider_bio.asp?rider_id=21

BTW, Bartali presented the trophy to me at a race I won in Toronto. (sorry for blowing my own horn!)

 

[mocka58]

Bartali was the first rider to win the Tour de France overall title and mountains jersey in one year, 1938. He repeated the same feat ten years later in 1948, the year in which he won seven stages. These were the only years in which he won the Tour de France.

http://www.cyclinghalloffame.com/riders/rider_bio.asp?rider_id=21

BTW, Bartali presented the trophy to me at a race I won in Toronto. (sorry for blowing my own horn!)

Don't worry about blowing your own horn! It's fantastic that you got to meet one of the great legends of the sport.

 

[paris_boy]

Don't worry about blowing your own horn! It's fantastic that you got to meet one of the great legends of the sport.

actually I didn't know at the time about his greatness. just a stupid kid new to cycling.

 

[davidbod]

I think you guys are all forgetting about Vinokourov. After all it was he who caused the most trouble in the 2003 TDF. I can only imagine how it would have been this year if Vino had made the tour.

 

[chisa1234]

it would be a shame for armstrong to bow out and not defend 2005. i feel that a champion should pull the yellow off the current champ.

as to a winner i think basso prob if he gets a good enough team or hamilton if he can stay on his bike

 

[meehs]

I think you guys are all forgetting about Vinokourov. After all it was he who caused the most trouble in the 2003 TDF. I can only imagine how it would have been this year if Vino had made the tour.

Good point! Vino is defintely a legitimate threat.

 

[J.Burns]

Was very impressed by Basso and Voekler. Ulrich will always be there to finnish second!!

 

[mocka58]

Good point! Vino is defintely a legitimate threat.

I don't see Vino as a winner. He's a terrific rider but I think he just lacks that little bit of class at the top end which would enable him to unseat the likes of Ullrich and Armstrong.

 

[chisa1234]

please stop talking about Ullrich. he is the Mike Tyson of cycling.