If Lance really is doping....



Chris wrote:
> "Tim Lines" <[email protected]> wrote in message
> news:b_UOc.191819$%_6.160553@attbi_s01...
>
>>Chris wrote:
>>
>>
>>
>>>No. These assumptions are reasonable only if you buy in to other

>
> assumptions
>
>>>about using results as an indication of doped vs. clean riders.

>>
>>You misunderstood. My assumption is that by the end of the TdF, the GC
>>contenders have been frequently enough tested that they've been dope
>>free for 3+ weeks. That assumption might be wrong. I'd be interested
>>in hearing why you think that's the case.
>>
>>Another assumption is that the effects of whatever drug would decrease
>>over a 3+ week period.
>>
>>Bottom line is that I theorize that the final time trial of the TdF this
>>year was about as free from the influence of doping as anything we're
>>likely to see.

>
>
> That is interesting since the last ITT of the 2003 Tour was probably won by
> a cheater that did not test positive. That is the claim of several witnesses
> against David Millar, and he may have already conceded that he did dope *for
> that stage*. I could be wrong on the cofession though.


I've read very little about the specifics of Millar's confession. If
that's what he confessed, it would be interesting to know how he cheated
and beat the tests. Everything I've said is absolute **** if A) there
exists a usable way of fooling the tests and B) the cyclists trust that
method enough to risk their careers on it.
>
> In any case, being drug free for 3 weeks and free from the effects of drugs
> are 2 *entirely different* issues and that is what my point was. In fact,
> cyclists can use EPO for the entire pre-season and have some benefit through
> the entire year. It may not show up in HCT, but training with EPO will allow
> at the very minimum a much fresher mental state while in competition.


Your argument for a psychological benefit after the physical affects
have worn off is new to me. It makes some sense, although I can also
make sense of someone making a large deal out of a slight reduction in
physical ability. I'm thinking that guys who can't deal with that don't
last very long at the pro level anyway, though. That reduction would be
just another thing to fight through or ignore as suits the individual taste.

> Those
> that have to compete may be at a disadvantage simply because they had to
> work so much harder to get their fitness. It may not even make a difference
> in the results but it is still a factor to consider. My point in all of this
> is that the rules need to be enforceable and consistent. As of now they are
> not.


Sounds like a good idea to me. A good first step would be to determine
whether holes in enforcement exist and what they are.


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Chris wrote:

> "Tim Lines" <[email protected]> wrote in message
> news:NUUOc.194115$IQ4.126926@attbi_s02...
>
>>Howard Kveck wrote:
>>
>>
>>>In article <91GOc.55265$8_6.37804@attbi_s04>,
>>> Tim Lines <[email protected]> wrote:
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>>Howard Kveck wrote:
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>> Well, there is a test now for EPO, but it will only detect it in the
>>>>>test subject a few days after the EPO has been taken. But the benefits

>
> of
>
>>>>>the EPO appear (and stay much) later.
>>>>
>>>>So, if I understand what you're saying, the guy who's strongest towards
>>>>the end of the TdF ought to be the guy who's LEAST reliant on EPO.
>>>
>>>
>>> I'd say that sounds fairly reasonable - either it's that or he's the

>
> guy
>
>>>who has figured out his timing and dosages to result in max hct towards

>
> the
>
>>>end of the race. And just to make it clear, I'm not one of the "they're

>
> all
>
>>>doping" crowd. I don't know, but there is evidence that *some* are using
>>>illegal substances.

>>
>>Is it possible that someone could time their dosages to result in max
>>hct 3+ weeks after the dosages have stopped? I assume that the last
>>dosage would occur a couple days prior to the start of the tour, but the
>>precise amount of time is not critical. That's where I'm getting 3+

>
> weeks.
>
> No, but you would still have benefit from being fresher through the previous
> stages. EPO improves recovery, and how long do you think the effects would
> last if you could make your training seem to be about 25% easier? I think
> that benefit could last an entire season without ever running the risk of a
> positive test or "health test failure". Look at Virenque before he was
> entangled in the Festina affair. He was able to go out at attack his way to
> a second place against Ullrich in the '97 Tour and he had other good GC
> results prior. After he was put under investigation (and eventually
> confessed) he was never really able to mount an effective GC campaign and
> does not even try any longer. One or two stages and the KoM jersey are all
> he can dream hope for.


Excellent example. Thanks.

>
>
>>>
>>>>True? Especially if he's been finishing toward the front and getting
>>>>consistently tested, you'd know at a minimum that he hasn't doped since,
>>>>say 3 days before the start. Presumably his competition hasn't either.
>>>> The effects of EPO should have been at their minimum during that final
>>>>time trial this year.
>>>
>>>
>>> Again, these seem like reasonable assumptions to make, if you believe
>>>riders are using EPO.
>>>

>>
>>
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> > Is micro-dosing of EPO impossible to detect? If it is, it would also

seem
> > impossible to get a benefit from, or that the testing techniques are

very
> > poor.

>
> I don't know. I've just seen it suggested on the internet as a means
> to avoid detection, so it must be true.


I know you do not know, but I just want to point out that out-of-competition
testing would make it difficult for the athlete. As a result, the very
little use of EPO would leave its effects minimal, I would think. I say
"little use" because they would have to stop or risk getting caught during a
surprise testing.

> > So you think there's a possibility that athletes like Lance and others

are
> > getting a heads up about upcoming suprise tests?

>
> Well, if you take the most pessimistic view of professional athletics
> and drug testing, I would say definitely. The govorning bodies want
> thier sport to look clean. Lots of negative tests with an occasional
> positive serves that purpose (or it may be the case that only 5% are
> doping, and 1% are getting caught).


No, I do not believe this is the case. At least I hope not.

Dave