Ignore if you are not interested in Israel/Lebanon Ceasfire...

[darkboong]

Just keeping score... The "provocations" (as the apologists for Israel would call them) so far are :

August 13th
Ceasefire commences.
Two hours later an IDF patrol kills 3 militants (or so they claim)

August 19th
IDF conducts a "commando" raid near Baalbek (60 miles from the Blue Line).
IDF conducts airstrikes in the area.

August 21st
IDF claims that it shot dead 3 suspected Hezbollah fighters in south Lebanon.

All sourced from the BBC which in turn sourced them from the Israeli authorities. I have not seen any reports of Hezbollah attacking the IDF or Israel since the ceasefire took hold, if anyone has seen reports, let me know times dates and sources.

 

[limerickman]

The incursion in to the Bekaa Valley by the IDF - under the pretence of trying to prevent arms shipments - was the breaking of the ceasefire.

The problem for the Zionists is that Hezbollah's resistance in Lebanon during the Israeli 34 day invasion, has seriously rattled Israel.

The presumption was that the IDF would easily rout Hezbollah.

Obviously the Zionists have short memories : Hezbollah escorted Israel out of Lebanon following a long protracted engagement which finished in 2000.

The Zionists will try to aggrevate the situation - in order to try to engage Hezbollah.
Hezbollah would be correct to resist for as long as possible.
By staying intact - they have won the battle thus far.

 

[2FAST4U]

The incursion in to the Bekaa Valley by the IDF - under the pretence of trying to prevent arms shipments - was the breaking of the ceasefire.

The problem for the Zionists is that Hezbollah's resistance in Lebanon during the Israeli 34 day invasion, has seriously rattled Israel.

The presumption was that the IDF would easily rout Hezbollah.

Obviously the Zionists have short memories : Hezbollah escorted Israel out of Lebanon following a long protracted engagement which finished in 2000.

The Zionists will try to aggrevate the situation - in order to try to engage Hezbollah.
Hezbollah would be correct to resist for as long as possible.
By staying intact - they have won the battle thus far.

Sorry to disagree…but I must. Your post is mere opinion. Hezbulla didn’t escort anyone out as they hid like frightened little girls behind women and children. The only thing responsible or acted as the impetus to send Israel back home was a little thing called “public opinion” doctored photos and pressure from other world leaders. I assure you, if left to do the job…Israel would mop up hezbulla, Syria and ahem…the powerhouse of Ireland as well….

 

[limerickman]

Sorry to disagree…but I must. Your post is mere opinion. Hezbulla didn’t escort anyone out as they hid like frightened little girls behind women and children. The only thing responsible or acted as the impetus to send Israel back home was a little thing called “public opinion” doctored photos and pressure from other world leaders. I assure you, if left to do the job…Israel would mop up hezbulla, Syria and ahem…the powerhouse of Ireland as well….

Fact is Israel was escorted out of Lebanon in 2000.

In addition, Israel assumed that their latest invasion of Lebanon would have resulted in a "quick victory" against Hezbollah.
Fact is Hezbollah is still intact.

Reminds one of Vietnam.
My friend.

 

[2FAST4U]

Fact is Israel was escorted out of Lebanon in 2000.

In addition, Israel assumed that their latest invasion of Lebanon would have resulted in a "quick victory" against Hezbollah.
Fact is Hezbollah is still intact.

Reminds one of Vietnam.
My friend.

Ok...you can think whatever you want...Your fact is misrepresented. I don't think they were looking for quick victory so much as exposing hezbozo's for what they are. Hezbozo is not intact....and if they attempt to launch more of those **** ant missiles, there will be more fighting. Does not remind me of vietnam in the least...I think Iraq would be closer to that example than this latest round with the hezbozo's...

Sorry to say but we must agree to disagree...

BTW aren't you going to follow my expert technical advice?

 

[limerickman]

Ok...you can think whatever you want...Your fact is misrepresented. I don't think they were looking for quick victory so much as exposing hezbozo's for what they are. Hezbozo is not intact....and if they attempt to launch more of those **** ant missiles, there will be more fighting. Does not remind me of vietnam in the least...I think Iraq would be closer to that example than this latest round with the hezbozo's...

Sorry to say but we must agree to disagree...

BTW aren't you going to follow my expert technical advice?

Hezbollah is intact.

As regards your technical advise, we discussed this before.
Maybe you can't remember that far back.
Still I'm sure it'll be interesting this time round.

 

[darkboong]

Ok...you can think whatever you want...Your fact is misrepresented. I don't think they were looking for quick victory so much as exposing hezbozo's for what they are.

The stated aims (as declared by Olmert) were (roughly in chronological order) :
1) Recover the two soldiers.
2) Prevent Hezbollah firing artillery into Israel (note : This occurred after the IDF had attacked Lebanese civillians some 80 miles away from the border).
3) Destroy Hezbollah.
4) Destroy everything that could remotely be used by Hezbollah, including schools, hospitals, playing fields, apartment blocks, petrol stations, bridges, airports and ports.
5) Destroy UNIFIL observation posts (preferably with UNIFIL dudes inside)
6) Destroy 10 civillian apartment blocks for every rocket fired (Dan Halutz came up with that one).
7) Establish a buffer zone by taking and controling of all Lebanese turf up to the Litani.
8) Plan 7 failed so hand it off to a UN force - but keep on shelling the area anyway.
9) Kill the Hezbollah Leadership while under ceasefire.

Hezbozo is not intact....and if they attempt to launch more of those **** ant missiles, there will be more fighting.

The IDF is attacking regardless of the ceasefire, so that condition is clearly irrelevent. So far Hezbollah appear to have been very restrained in the face of repeated provocation, although I don't expect that to last. My best guess is that the next round of fights will be kicked off after massive airstrikes by the IDF. The retaliation will probably take the form of the destroying every last IDF unit on Lebanese turf that can't run away quick enough.

Quite frankly if 60,000 troops can't defeat 3000 irregulars I don't see much hope for the IDF achieving any of the stated goals in Lebanon. The bigger issue for the IDF is tha they've been shown up, they are no longer "invincible". Decades of attacking kids throwing rocks and unarmored men firing small arms with Main Battle Tanks has led to complacancy and this debacle. The only goal the IDF can adequately fulfill is the systematic destruction of every last soft (civillian) target Lebanon, which I am sure they will resume before September is out.

The IDF relied upon Wehrmacht Blitzkreig tactics, using massive airstrikes and MBTs to advance quickly. The problem is that they aren't attacking the Maginot line, they're attacking a bunch of volunteers with RPG-7s. The fact of the matter is that MBT's are only really useful for scaring people, attacking soft-targets (eg: kids throwing rocks or firing small arms) and other MBTs. Tough break that they found out the hard way, let's hope they draw the sane conclusion that they can't win through violence.

 

[BillM]

The insanity is running rampant in this thread.

Lebanon has been bombed back into the dark ages.

Hezbollah...while intact....is in tatters.

Israel is going home to a normal life while "Hezbollah" will be cooking over a campfire and crapping in the woods for years. No power, no water, no electricity, no food, nothing. Yeah....what a victory.....woohoo....let's celebrate.

When you measure victory by simply surviving then you can count every defeated nation in the history of time as "victors".


Hezbollah bit off a lot more than it expected....they never dreamed Israel would retaliate the way they did. I bet they won't be kidnapping any Israeli citizens again in the near future.

If they do...I hope Israel doesn't stop until Lebanon is as flat as a prairie.

 

[darkboong]

The insanity is running rampant in this thread.

Lebanon has been bombed back into the dark ages.

Hezbollah...while intact....is in tatters.

Well, if that means that you don't endorse further strikes on Israel so be it. OTOH, here in the real world, Hezbollah are still very much alive.

Israel is going home to a normal life while "Hezbollah" will be cooking over a campfire and crapping in the woods for years. No power, no water, no electricity, no food, nothing. Yeah....what a victory.....woohoo....let's celebrate.

The IDF estimated Hezbollah's fighting strength in Southern Lebanon to be ~3000 volunteers. The IDF have destroyed the homes of ~750,000 civillians, by the IDF's own estimations the people they've ****ed over most are civillians. If their goal was to destory Hezbollah they've failed, if their goal was to wipe out all viable habitation south of the Litani river they have succeeded.

Hezbollah bit off a lot more than it expected....they never dreamed Israel would retaliate the way they did. I bet they won't be kidnapping any Israeli citizens again in the near future.

They have already taken more IDF soldiers prisoner in Southern Lebanon during the past 30 days.

If they do...I hope Israel doesn't stop until Lebanon is as flat as a prairie.

Why don't you go and tell that to the face of the survivors of Qana ?

 

[limerickman]

The insanity is running rampant in this thread.

Lebanon has been bombed back into the dark ages.

Hezbollah...while intact....is in tatters.

Israel is going home to a normal life while "Hezbollah" will be cooking over a campfire and crapping in the woods for years. No power, no water, no electricity, no food, nothing. Yeah....what a victory.....woohoo....let's celebrate.

When you measure victory by simply surviving then you can count every defeated nation in the history of time as "victors".


Hezbollah bit off a lot more than it expected....they never dreamed Israel would retaliate the way they did. I bet they won't be kidnapping any Israeli citizens again in the near future.

If they do...I hope Israel doesn't stop until Lebanon is as flat as a prairie.

Quite.

The Zionists stated that the 34 day war was with Hezbollah - not Lebanon and not with the Lebanese people.

If we take the Zionists statement at face value (personally I would never take any statement from any Zionist at face value) - then the objective of the 34 day war was to rout Hezbollah.
In this objective, Israel failed.

Hezbollah are still intact and are playing a crucial role in the repatriation of people back to South Lebanon and they're providing funds and accomodation for people who have been displaced.

If the Zionist objective was to destroy the infrastructure of south Lebanon, to displace thousands of Lebanese citizens - then the Zionists achieved victory.

So this brings us back to the Zionists stated objective at the outset of the 34 day war.
Either the war was against Hezbollah or it was against the South Lebanese people.
In either case, Hezbollah gained in substantial credibility by withstanding the Zionists and remaining intact - and by assisting the Lebanese citizens in their repatriation.

 

[BillM]

Yeah....you guys are good at spinning.


Israels goal was to create a buffer zone and push Hezbollah back far enough to nearly eliminate the rocket attacks.

They did so.

As for the Lebanese citizens....they allowed Hezbollah to operate freely within their country....and they unfortunately have paid the price....but if you lie down with dogs...then you get fleas.

You can spin this all you want....but if the world had not protested so vehemently then Israel would have and could have destroyed Hezbollah.....the difficulty is that Hezbollah hides behind women, children and aid workers making it very difficult.

Everything that happened lies SQUARELY on the shoulders of Hezbollah...they are responsible for every civilian death imo....if they had not decided to enter Israel, kill 8 Israelis while kidnapping 2 soldiers then this action would not have happened.

Simple.

 

[limerickman]

Israels goal was to create a buffer zone and push Hezbollah back far enough to nearly eliminate the rocket attacks.

They did so.

If you look at the chronology of events - you'll see that the world did nothing to prevent Israel invading Lebanon.
So to assert that the world stopped Israel is conjecture.

The fact of the matter is that the Token on her trip to the Middle East never endorsed a ceasefire until it became apparent that Hezbollah were not going to be removed by Zionist/IDF.
In fact the Token repeatedly stated that the USA would allow the IDF time to engage and dismantle Hezbollah's operation in Southern Lebanon.
Those engagements happened and Hezbollah remained in situ.

It is interesting to note the frequency and range of Hezbaollah attacks on Israel increased as the duration of the war extended.
After 21 days of fighting - Hezbollah launched 160 rockets in to Northern Israel.
The rate of increase in the volume of rockets fired shows that IDF offence and their creation of a buffer zone was ineffectual.

As for the Lebanese citizens....they allowed Hezbollah to operate freely within their country....and they unfortunately have paid the price....but if you lie down with dogs...then you get fleas.

Hold on sec.

There were democratic elections in Lebanon in June 2005 - your country cited Lebanon as a haven for democracy within the Middle East, as result of this vote. Your country commended the fact that it was the first election in 29 years in the Lebanon.

The Lebanese people voted for the Hezbollah party in Southern Lebanon.
That's democracy.

Everything that happened lies SQUARELY on the shoulders of Hezbollah...they are responsible for every civilian death imo....if they had not decided to enter Israel, kill 8 Israelis while kidnapping 2 soldiers then this action would not have happened.

Simple.

Simplistic.
And revisionist.

Israel has been aggitating in that region for quite some time.
You seem to forget that it is Israel which invaded Lebanon on July 12th.

In addition, israeli actions in Gaza were further acts of provocation.
The Israeli's deliberately shelled Gaza beach on June 9th - killing innocent civilians.

 

[2FAST4U]

Hezbollah is intact.

As regards your technical advise, we discussed this before.
Maybe you can't remember that far back.
Still I'm sure it'll be interesting this time round.

Nope...you are not stating facts here my friend.

As far as our "discussion" other than you offering your thanks, I do not recall and extended conversation. However, I am curious why you haven't acted on my friendly advice......

 

[limerickman]

As far as our "discussion" other than you offering your thanks, I do not recall and extended conversation. However, I am curious why you haven't acted on my friendly advice......

Advice can be taken ......or not taken.
Maybe you'll take my advice, this time?


Your memory isn't as good as it used be.

 

[Carrera]

I agree, more or less. Darkboong can argue about this till the cows come home but, specifically, it boils down survival of the fittest.
You can analyse a fight or an argument indefinitely, quibbling over who is right or who is wrong. However, at the end of the day, all disputes at some point have to be decided by conflict.
The cold, harsh reality is that there is doing to be some kind of actual conflict between Israel and Iran and people will have to accept the outcome of that dispute when it does finally boil over.
Either Israel will learn from its recent confrontation with Hizbollah and modify its tactics or Israel will sink and be squeezed out of the Middle East altogether, as happened centuries ago. Or Israel will face Iran head on and inflict decisive military defeat the way the Romans were forced to put Carthage out of action to ensure their survival.
Whether Darkboong is aware of the survival of the fittest in the natural world, I have no idea. However, even in cycling it's a reality. You can't spend life complaining if you get dropped in a bike race but your team will expect you to be a winner and beat the opposing team.

Sorry to disagree…but I must. Your post is mere opinion. Hezbulla didn’t escort anyone out as they hid like frightened little girls behind women and children. The only thing responsible or acted as the impetus to send Israel back home was a little thing called “public opinion” doctored photos and pressure from other world leaders. I assure you, if left to do the job…Israel would mop up hezbulla, Syria and ahem…the powerhouse of Ireland as well….

 

[Carrera]

"The fact of the matter is that the Token on her trip to the Middle East never endorsed a ceasefire until it became apparent that Hezbollah were not going to be removed by Zionist/IDF."
Israel performed badly in this conflict - no denying it. I'm not going to waste my own time defending a botched operation. Most Israelis seem aware they need to get their ship in order.
However, it took Russia at leat 2 years to crack Chechnya with many setbacks. The first assault on Grozniy was a disaster.
Where are the Chechnyan terrorists now though? Did Russia listen to the U.N. as Israel has been doing or did Russia decided to finish the job?
It took some 2 years but Chechnya is no longer a terrorist state and a threat to Moscow.

If you look at the chronology of events - you'll see that the world did nothing to prevent Israel invading Lebanon.
So to assert that the world stopped Israel is conjecture.

The fact of the matter is that the Token on her trip to the Middle East never endorsed a ceasefire until it became apparent that Hezbollah were not going to be removed by Zionist/IDF.
In fact the Token repeatedly stated that the USA would allow the IDF time to engage and dismantle Hezbollah's operation in Southern Lebanon.
Those engagements happened and Hezbollah remained in situ.

It is interesting to note the frequency and range of Hezbaollah attacks on Israel increased as the duration of the war extended.
After 21 days of fighting - Hezbollah launched 160 rockets in to Northern Israel.
The rate of increase in the volume of rockets fired shows that IDF offence and their creation of a buffer zone was ineffectual.



Hold on sec.

There were democratic elections in Lebanon in June 2005 - your country cited Lebanon as a haven for democracy within the Middle East, as result of this vote. Your country commended the fact that it was the first election in 29 years in the Lebanon.

The Lebanese people voted for the Hezbollah party in Southern Lebanon.
That's democracy.



Simplistic.
And revisionist.

Israel has been aggitating in that region for quite some time.
You seem to forget that it is Israel which invaded Lebanon on July 12th.

In addition, israeli actions in Gaza were further acts of provocation.
The Israeli's deliberately shelled Gaza beach on June 9th - killing innocent civilians.

 

[darkboong]

Yeah....you guys are good at spinning.

I am pretty awful at it to be honest, I just post reports with sources, and when I am wrong I say so. Spinners (like yourself) never admit they are wrong, they just pretend the world revolves around them..

Israels goal was to create a buffer zone and push Hezbollah back far enough to nearly eliminate the rocket attacks.

IF that is the case how come alleged Hezbollah militants are being shot just 3km from the border, hmm ?

They did so.

Got any evidence to prove it from any source other than the IDF, or a source that is quoting the IDF, or a source that is affiliated to the IDF ?

You can spin this all you want....

No need to spin it, let the facts speak for themselves. Ifs/Buts & Maybes are just that, they don't reflect reality.

but if the world had not protested so vehemently then Israel would have and could have destroyed Hezbollah.

Within Israel the blame is being laid with Olmert/Halutz/Peretz.

....the difficulty is that Hezbollah hides behind women, children and aid workers making it very difficult.

Attacking indiscriminately, killing, wounding and destroy civillian infrastructure simply because they happen to be living there is dumb, immoral and illegal. The fact that Israel (and you) recognise the problem, yet persist in attacking indiscriminately confirms that Israel (and you) are dumb, immoral and criminal.

For the record the IDF operates in exactly the same way as well. All those border towns have barracks, artillery posts, amunitions dumps and the like in them or nearby. All those IDF reservists were hiding behind their wives and children...

The fact of the matter is that invading armies will *always* find it nigh-on impossible to distinguish between hostile and friendly on enemy turf. The reason being that just about everyone is hostile *because* the invaders have been breaking stuff and killing people.

The days of agreeing on a field to fight on went out with plate mail armor, it is time you and your IDF chums got used to the harsh realities of war rather than whinge about it.

Everything that happened lies SQUARELY on the shoulders of Hezbollah...they are responsible for every civilian death imo....

In your opinion every last square inch of Lebanon should be destroyed (and by implication that will lead to the deaths of the majority of Lebanese).

I hope Israel doesn't stop until Lebanon is as flat as a prairie.

People who do not take responsibility for their actions are cowards and liars. When you say it's all Hezbollah's fault that the IDF attacked civillians in the very towns where they lived, you are simply making a liar and a coward out of the IDF.

their homes must be destroyed.

Steady on Adolf.

if they had not decided to enter Israel, kill 8 Israelis while kidnapping 2 soldiers then this action would not have happened.

The IDF and Olmert both claimed that the abduction happened on Lebanese turf. It was only after they had killed a few hundred Lebanese that they changed their story to fit their claims of provocation. At the start of this thread I outlined three incidents of the IDF breaking the Ceasefire with lethal consequences. By your very own calculus of revenge the entire state of Israel must be bombed "flat as a prarie".

 

[darkboong]

It took some 2 years but Chechnya is no longer a terrorist state and a threat to Moscow.

Realistically speaking Chechnya was never a threat to Russia, terrorist or otherwise.

The vast majority of the fighting occurred on Chechnyan turf because the Russian army effectively *invaded* Chechnya. Given the vast imbalance of casualities it is clear that Russia is more of a threat to Chechnya than the other way around.

The same point stands with regard to Israel and Lebanon, and Israel and the Palestinians. You can try to claim otherwise but the facts will always be against you.

 

[Carrera]

The IDF has been following bad avice for far too long. Even the U.S. has shown itself to be too reluctant to really give Israel a free hand to sort this situation out.
Sadly, Israel isn't in the same situation as Russia where it can take its own course of action. Soon as the U.N. begins to seriously wring its hands, the U.S. gets cold feet and Israel is forced to back down.
If the IDF really wanted to destroy Hizbollah it could do it - it's just the degree of force it could use without causing excessive international outrage. Clearly it would involve massive civilian casualties as Hizbollah is hidden in urban areas. It would also take possibly six months of constant pounding till the organization fell or fled.
The job is half-done but that's the U.N.'s fault.

The stated aims (as declared by Olmert) were (roughly in chronological order) :
1) Recover the two soldiers.
2) Prevent Hezbollah firing artillery into Israel (note : This occurred after the IDF had attacked Lebanese civillians some 80 miles away from the border).
3) Destroy Hezbollah.
4) Destroy everything that could remotely be used by Hezbollah, including schools, hospitals, playing fields, apartment blocks, petrol stations, bridges, airports and ports.
5) Destroy UNIFIL observation posts (preferably with UNIFIL dudes inside)
6) Destroy 10 civillian apartment blocks for every rocket fired (Dan Halutz came up with that one).
7) Establish a buffer zone by taking and controling of all Lebanese turf up to the Litani.
8) Plan 7 failed so hand it off to a UN force - but keep on shelling the area anyway.
9) Kill the Hezbollah Leadership while under ceasefire.



The IDF is attacking regardless of the ceasefire, so that condition is clearly irrelevent. So far Hezbollah appear to have been very restrained in the face of repeated provocation, although I don't expect that to last. My best guess is that the next round of fights will be kicked off after massive airstrikes by the IDF. The retaliation will probably take the form of the destroying every last IDF unit on Lebanese turf that can't run away quick enough.

Quite frankly if 60,000 troops can't defeat 3000 irregulars I don't see much hope for the IDF achieving any of the stated goals in Lebanon. The bigger issue for the IDF is tha they've been shown up, they are no longer "invincible". Decades of attacking kids throwing rocks and unarmored men firing small arms with Main Battle Tanks has led to complacancy and this debacle. The only goal the IDF can adequately fulfill is the systematic destruction of every last soft (civillian) target Lebanon, which I am sure they will resume before September is out.

The IDF relied upon Wehrmacht Blitzkreig tactics, using massive airstrikes and MBTs to advance quickly. The problem is that they aren't attacking the Maginot line, they're attacking a bunch of volunteers with RPG-7s. The fact of the matter is that MBT's are only really useful for scaring people, attacking soft-targets (eg: kids throwing rocks or firing small arms) and other MBTs. Tough break that they found out the hard way, let's hope they draw the sane conclusion that they can't win through violence.

 

[Carrera]

The BBC reports another foreign kidnapping in Gaza today. This is why I draw the comparison with Chechnya. Chechnya and Gaza, so far as I'm concerned, are the same - hotbeds for Jihadist fanatics.
Israel needs it's own version of Vladimir Putin, I think. Under Yeltsin, little progress was made in the Chechnyan war. The Russians did it all wrong and tried to fight Chechnyan militants house to house and they lost a lot of conscripts.
Still, Putin was more decisive. When the U.N. started to kick up a fuss and scream over terrorists human rights, I recall Russia fired one of its ICBM's as a warning to the U.N. to stay out of the situation. It was just a strong diplomatic gesture.
Then Putin hit Chechnya hard. The U.N. wasn't allowed any access in fact. The result is Chechnyan terrorism is a spent force where it used to be an unstable breeding ground for bombers and fanatics.
That's what Israel needs, I believe. Possibly Netanyahu would sort things out. The IDF has been too soft for too long and negotiation has only made matters worse and they should ignore the U.N. - the U.N. has let us down again, so it seems.

Realistically speaking Chechnya was never a threat to Russia, terrorist or otherwise.

The vast majority of the fighting occurred on Chechnyan turf because the Russian army effectively *invaded* Chechnya. Given the vast imbalance of casualities it is clear that Russia is more of a threat to Chechnya than the other way around.

The same point stands with regard to Israel and Lebanon, and Israel and the Palestinians. You can try to claim otherwise but the facts will always be against you.