Originally posted by Marty & Michael
"
> > Is there any chance whatsoever that Jan will attack and try to
break-away
> > tomorrow? I realize the tradition, but the tradition just seems silly
to
> > me - it's a stage for cryin' out loud, why wouldn't the guys race?
> >
> > Would it be unprecedented in Tour history for Jan to try to break-away tomorrow?
>
> Sure, he can try.
> --
> Marty
Consider one of the best breakaways in recent history by someone high in the GC -- Tyler Hamilton.
Even though he performed beautifully in a stage
(16) with mountains (not a flat stage, where a breakaway would have even less a chance of success),
he could only put 1:55 minutes on the rest of the riders.
Furthermore, Ullrich no longer has a full team, so even if he tried to turn it into a team time
trial, the Posties have a decided edge.
M.
A cross post of mine from Cyclingforums.
If stage 20 were a "real" stage and the teams were willing to try something crazy....
... then Ulrich could be in a fight for the jersey and potentially could succede if he engineered a break, followed with the ride of his life. There is a 2.4 km category 4 climb at the 23.5 km marker. As good as spot as any on this course for a break.
And a smart rider would work together in that break with another rider that is equally motivated for a betterment of their final standing, riders like Vinokourov, Mayo, Zubeldia or Hamilton would be a good choice to have in that group. Get one of these riders in the break, set up a team time trial and Ulrich could hold onto and make up the 1' 16".
It would really force USPS to catch the group to return Lance to top position, and it would cost any of the other riders in the top 5 positions nothing if the attempt failed and they did get caught. They don't race Monday, and as long as they finish in the peltoton or the bridging group with Armstrong they basically maintain current standings. What a race that would be.
If USPS's manager was a chess player though, maybe he'd see this crazy possibility occuring, (it has been one of the craziest, most riveting tours ever) and perhaps devise a counter attack plan.
Perhaps something along the line of a discussion with Hamilton, who is yearning for a top 3 position, and is one of the strongest time trialers on the tour; combined with his ability to stave off pain like no-one's business... Being a former USPS rider, Tyler's probably easy enough for USPS to get in touch with tonight to discuss such crazy plans...
Anyway, at that same cat 4 climb, Lance and Tyler attack off the front, with the bulk of the USPS and CSC teams holding the peloton in check. They get into the flats and pull off a killer team time trial (I think they've particed that a few times together); they build a gap better than 5' 16", securing Tyler the number 2 position over Ulrich, cementing Lance's yellow jersey, and Lance being the gentleman and friend of Tyler's that he is, let's Hamilton take a second stage victory.
With the relationship between Hamilton and Armstrong as it is, and the risk for something else as crazy to happen, maybe a plan like one of these makes sense in a weird sort of way. That said, it's unlikely, as the unwritten rule is that the last stage is a parade.
What if the crazy could happen though... That would be a suitably amazing finish to the hundredth anniversary of the tour. Now where did I put Tyler's cell phone number ;-)
Cheers,
Steve Cooper
