Is Ris' Strategy of Waiting for LA Weakness Flawed?

[musette]

Cyclingnews reports: "Although Basso and Armstrong were inseparable on La Mongie and Plateau de Beille, Basso said that he will attack if he sees the opportunity. 'It's possible to win the Tour de France in one attack,' Basso said. 'Last year at Luz Ardiden, Armstrong won the race in one attack. I don't know if Armstrong will have a bad day. If he does, we will be ready. It's not worth it to attack just to gain 10 to 20 seconds.' Team director Bjarne Riis agreed, saying, **'We will attack Armstrong only if he shows weakness. We are waiting for that...First, we will ride to protect Ivan. I believe he can finish on the podium. If he can follow Armstrong in the next few stages, that will be very important.'"

Does this mean Ris is not going to affirmatively go for #1 on the podium, unless LA shows weakness (which he won't), that he's willing to settle for #2 for Basso?

 

[mitosis]

Cyclingnews reports: "Although Basso and Armstrong were inseparable on La Mongie and Plateau de Beille, Basso said that he will attack if he sees the opportunity. 'It's possible to win the Tour de France in one attack,' Basso said. 'Last year at Luz Ardiden, Armstrong won the race in one attack. I don't know if Armstrong will have a bad day. If he does, we will be ready. It's not worth it to attack just to gain 10 to 20 seconds.' Team director Bjarne Riis agreed, saying, **'We will attack Armstrong only if he shows weakness. We are waiting for that...First, we will ride to protect Ivan. I believe he can finish on the podium. If he can follow Armstrong in the next few stages, that will be very important.'"

Does this mean Ris is not going to affirmatively go for #1 on the podium, unless LA shows weakness (which he won't), that he's willing to settle for #2 for Basso?

Since Plateau de Beille I've been really looking forward to seeing if Basso can shake Armstrong in the Pyrenees. Even if he gains only 20 or 30 seconds in the next stage, the psychological effects could be enough to tip things Basso's way.

Or, possible but unlikely, if Ullrich somehow finds form and picks up a minute or two, it would sure make an interesting last few days.

 

[Morpheus]

I was very surprised to hear that coming from the man that dethroned the previous 5-time winner. I guess a podium finish would still be a big result for CSC, however it's disheartening. If Basso won't attack, and will mostly try to ride to defend second, then who will? Is the victory parade already on?

Hopefully Ullrich goes nuts, but he also seems to be just looking to make it to the podium.

 

[MidBunchLurker]

I was very surprised to hear that coming from the man that dethroned the previous 5-time winner. I guess a podium finish would still be a big result for CSC, however it's disheartening. If Basso won't attack, and will mostly try to ride to defend second, then who will? Is the victory parade already on?

Hopefully Ullrich goes nuts, but he also seems to be just looking to make it to the podium.

I think he's being realistic. Riis can't see Basso beating Armstrong in a head-to-head, which isn't very suprising. If Basso tries that and fails he could end up losing his 2nd place. Better to play the cautious game and only attack at a sign of LA weakness. That way he guarantees his 2nd spot. Riis has longer-term goals for Basso too. 2nd would be a great result for Basso. Next year he'll go for the win, and he'll probably get it too, especially if LA isn't there.

 

[luke1972]

I think he's being realistic. Riis can't see Basso beating Armstrong in a head-to-head, which isn't very suprising. If Basso tries that and fails he could end up losing his 2nd place. Better to play the cautious game and only attack at a sign of LA weakness. That way he guarantees his 2nd spot. Riis has longer-term goals for Basso too. 2nd would be a great result for Basso. Next year he'll go for the win, and he'll probably get it too, especially if LA isn't there.

Just because they say they will not attack Lance this does not mean that they will not try (you do not give away all your secrets). It is also likely that Lance will have to attack Basso to ensure a safer lead over the younger rider, should Basso be capable of sticking with him in the remaining climbs.