Is this normal? CTL, FTP and what now?

[Hoghunter]

This year I again got off my ass, dropped major weight and started riding a bunch. The below shows that I went from zero to a CTL of 126 in early July. I plugged in a FTP of 250 at the start (I did some running and elliptical work over the winter but no cycling) and last week I tested at 300FTP.

I really didn't do any structured interval training until a couple weeks ago since I was always trying to slim down (finally down to 70kg) I have been riding over the last few years but I have NEVER kept it up over the winter. Always the same, ride like crazy starting in the spring, get up to around 300FTP, then burn out by fall and stop riding till next spring. Next year I want to do the NY Gran Fondo so I bought a Kickr and hopefully it will be enough to keep me motivated.

So what the hell am I asking here? I am wondering how important is it to keep fitness up over the winter? Am I really starting from zero or does something carry over? Of course I would love for someone to tell me how much I can keep improving if I don't hang it up over winter. Oh yeah and how much should I let my CTL fall over the off season? I know it all kind of varies but any input would be greatly appreciated! Thanks so much...
-ALex
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[JibberJim]

Originally Posted by Hoghunter
So what the hell am I asking here? I am wondering how important is it to keep fitness up over the winter? Am I really starting from zero or does something carry over? Of course I would love for someone to tell me how much I can keep improving if I don't hang it up over winter.

I think you'll see a big gain, but it's impossible to really know for sure, as it may be that you do get to hit your realistic max performance in that time, but I really doubt it.

I live in the UK, where obviously most people get to continue doing quite a lot of winter training, and the average rider appears to be considerably stronger than in places where winter shuts down riding, and I do attribute this to the continuous riding, even if you don't train hard over winter (although a lot of people actually increase intensity over winter because the long slow club run isn't so nice in the cold wet) then simply having a higher CTL lets you train more once it warms up.

I wouldn't aim for a CTL reduction target / cap whatever, I'm sure with the less opportunity to ride and the breaks you get from the "holiday season" you'll see a drop anyway and that will be enough. Before kids and when I cared about training, I would only drop to 80 or 90 in winter.

My bet would you be adding at least another 10% to your peak with a decent winters training, but we can't know for sure until you do it.