lance armstrong
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It might help if you say what you expect Lance to win, and if you say everything, don't forget there are lotteries out there too. I'm guessing you mean a bike race because that's been his game for quite a while now, but he does play golf too. I'm pretty sure I know what you're talking about, but I think you ought to spell it out for us.
I can't even imagine a podium without Lance and Jan next year.
A Beloki-style incident aside, this is all but a guarantee.
My hope for Lance is to finally take Liege or the Amstel Gold. Liege makes more sense now that it sits in the appropriate spot on the calendar for his yearly preparation. He has earned a 2nd place finish in both races (Boogerd did the "dirty" on him in Amstel 1999 by sitting on for last kilometre) and, though it is hard to be such a marked man and win a Classic, I think he is capable of, and deserves, a win.
A Beloki-style incident aside, this is all but a guarantee.
My hope for Lance is to finally take Liege or the Amstel Gold. Liege makes more sense now that it sits in the appropriate spot on the calendar for his yearly preparation. He has earned a 2nd place finish in both races (Boogerd did the "dirty" on him in Amstel 1999 by sitting on for last kilometre) and, though it is hard to be such a marked man and win a Classic, I think he is capable of, and deserves, a win.
There are a couple of external factors which could dramatically lower Lance's prospects for the Tour:
1. He seems to have finally entered a post cancer survival mode--he's largely returned to the personality he had before cancer, meaning less intense, less focused.
2. He's less hungry. He has little to prove at this point, and tons of other interesting things to be doing. He recently announced that he would rather spend Spring in Texas with his kids then win a sixth Tour. Doesn't sound like the old Lance, does it?
3. He doesn't have his personal support network--he just went through a divorce. Sheryl Crow, his new girlfriend, is definitely NOT the retiring, selfless companion that his wife had always been to him.
4. He's skipping much of his Spring racing schedule in Europe in favor of training in Texas.
All of these things are negatives as far as winning a sixth Tour goes.
1. He seems to have finally entered a post cancer survival mode--he's largely returned to the personality he had before cancer, meaning less intense, less focused.
2. He's less hungry. He has little to prove at this point, and tons of other interesting things to be doing. He recently announced that he would rather spend Spring in Texas with his kids then win a sixth Tour. Doesn't sound like the old Lance, does it?
3. He doesn't have his personal support network--he just went through a divorce. Sheryl Crow, his new girlfriend, is definitely NOT the retiring, selfless companion that his wife had always been to him.
4. He's skipping much of his Spring racing schedule in Europe in favor of training in Texas.
All of these things are negatives as far as winning a sixth Tour goes.
It's a very interesting question that you pose.
My head says that he is the favourite to win.
My heart dearly wishes that he's beaten.
I'm not a psychologist but from what I know of Armstrong, I believe that he will be super motivated to win the 2004 TDF.
Given the fact that he has solely concentrated each season since 1998, upon winning this event every year to the exclusion of every other race each season, I would think that if he failed to win it in 2004, this would be a calmity for him.
The reason why I think this is because he (Armstrong) seems to equate winning solely the TDF each year, as being a successful season.
Armstrong, I believe, considers if he wins his sixth successive TDF,
that this will accord him the respect that he feels he deserves.
If he doesn't win in 2004, this would be most certainly a calmity for him because, even with his narrow focus each year on the TDF since 1998, it will validate the greatness of the other Big 4.
The other Big 4 as well as winning 5 T'sDF, had the ability to win other races in the seasons when the won their T'sDF.
Therefore, i believe that he will be supermotivated to win in 2004.
My head says that he is the favourite to win.
My heart dearly wishes that he's beaten.
I'm not a psychologist but from what I know of Armstrong, I believe that he will be super motivated to win the 2004 TDF.
Given the fact that he has solely concentrated each season since 1998, upon winning this event every year to the exclusion of every other race each season, I would think that if he failed to win it in 2004, this would be a calmity for him.
The reason why I think this is because he (Armstrong) seems to equate winning solely the TDF each year, as being a successful season.
Armstrong, I believe, considers if he wins his sixth successive TDF,
that this will accord him the respect that he feels he deserves.
If he doesn't win in 2004, this would be most certainly a calmity for him because, even with his narrow focus each year on the TDF since 1998, it will validate the greatness of the other Big 4.
The other Big 4 as well as winning 5 T'sDF, had the ability to win other races in the seasons when the won their T'sDF.
Therefore, i believe that he will be supermotivated to win in 2004.
Sounds very similar to what I read but that's not quite what he said. He said that April was too early to be training hard in the mountains anyway and he could imagine going 2 months without seeing his kids.
He addressed the change in his training regimen by saying, "If it costs me the Tour, then I lose." I don't interpret that to mean that he'd rather spend time with his kids than win. To me he's saying that he thinks training in the U.S. at that point in the season should still allow him to be fit for the Tour but if the change in training has adverse affects, he's willing to accept that.
You're probably right on the exact wording of these quotes. I think I saw these references on Reuters Sports, which almost certainly would have picked them up third hand.
Nevertheless, there are other indicators that Lance's opportunity cost for past levels of focus and training may be higher this year, and his resulting motivation somewhat less.
First of all, I don't think he needs to spell it out at all. Lance plays golf very poorly, he couldn't be refering to that. He also waterskis, but I haven't seen him in any x-game promos. Heck, except for the TDF, he apparently doesn't even intend to do much cycling. I prefer to pull for a bike racer who actually races and hope this cherry-picking doesn't become too much of a trend. If Ulrich were to race one race a year, he'd kill Armstrong on any course.
In 2004, Ulrich is just better, simple as that. He's younger, stronger, more talented, and has a better team. I used to drink cappucino with Lance in '91-'92 when I first moved to Austin. I always thought he was a great guy even before cancer. But he's old.
In 1999-2001 Lance got stronger every year. In 2001 the only person who could beat Lance wore a cape. 2002-2003 he has gotten progressively weaker every year. Meanwhile Ulrich is set for a career year. He never intended to do that well in the TDF last year. It was '04 he'd had circled on his calendar all along. LOOK OUT!!!
Then again, Jan might be worse if he only did one race a year. Some riders need competition to hone that fine edge they don't get with training. Lance seems to be able to do it on his own during training. That doesn't mean others would be capable of such internal motivation.
I agree that Ullrich is the man to beat this year. And he may not be beatable.
I kind of wonder whether Ullrich would have had a better showing in the more current Tours if he had not come on so strong when he was young in 1997. Look how long he has taken to be considered the Tour favorite. From weight problems to recreational drug problems to knee problems, and finally he is at the top of his game again.
I think there is a point to be made about being more conservative with your talents in your early 20's to prepare for late 20's consistency. At least Jan has shown the perseverance of a true champion. He's still in the game. I hope all these contenders: Ullrich, Armstrong, Beloki, Hamilton, Heras are at top form for the TdF. It will be an exciting tour.
The obverse side of this arguement is that the really genuine
contenders show their mettle in their early 20's :
Here are some facts :
Hianult and Merckx won their first TDF at the age of 23.
Fignon won his first TDF at 24.
Coppi won his first Giro at 21 years of age.
Anquetil won his first TDF at 23.
Bartali won his first Giro at 22.
Ullrich won his first TDF at 23.
BigMig was slightly older when he won his first TDF at 26.
Armstrong was older still whn he won his first TDF at 28.
I have to chuckle at all the comments about Ullrich being the man to beat and being better than Armstrong.
Armstrong had difficulty last year mostly because Armstrong was weak, not because Ullrich was so strong. Several riders were giving Armstrong trouble, not just Ullrich.
Ullrich may indeed do well in 2004. How well he does remains to be seen. Of course, the same can be said of Armstrong. For those who don't seem to notice, Armstrong has beaten Ullrich every time they've raced together in the Tour de France since 2000. People who like Ullrich seem to be pretty handy at forgetting that.
Finally, Armstrong has acknowledged the fact that he doesn't compete in a lot of races the way the other 5-time winners did. He's also made the prediction that this will be the continuing trend for consistent winners of the Tour de France due to increased pressures to win, the constant "raising of the bar" in terms of what it takes to win, etc. Time will tell whether he is wrong or right. In the mean time, he's winning the Tour de France because that's what he's setting out to do. How many other races he does or does not compete in is his choice and, in my opinion, takes nothing away from his Tour de France wins.
Armstrong had difficulty last year mostly because Armstrong was weak, not because Ullrich was so strong. Several riders were giving Armstrong trouble, not just Ullrich.
Ullrich may indeed do well in 2004. How well he does remains to be seen. Of course, the same can be said of Armstrong. For those who don't seem to notice, Armstrong has beaten Ullrich every time they've raced together in the Tour de France since 2000. People who like Ullrich seem to be pretty handy at forgetting that.
Finally, Armstrong has acknowledged the fact that he doesn't compete in a lot of races the way the other 5-time winners did. He's also made the prediction that this will be the continuing trend for consistent winners of the Tour de France due to increased pressures to win, the constant "raising of the bar" in terms of what it takes to win, etc. Time will tell whether he is wrong or right. In the mean time, he's winning the Tour de France because that's what he's setting out to do. How many other races he does or does not compete in is his choice and, in my opinion, takes nothing away from his Tour de France wins.
Originally posted by Beastt
I have to chuckle at all the comments about Ullrich being the man to beat and being better than Armstrong.
Armstrong had difficulty last year mostly because Armstrong was weak, not because Ullrich was so strong. Several riders were giving Armstrong trouble, not just Ullrich.
Ullrich may indeed do well in 2004. How well he does remains to be seen. Of course, the same can be said of Armstrong. For those who don't seem to notice, Armstrong has beaten Ullrich every time they've raced together in the Tour de France since 2000. People who like Ullrich seem to be pretty handy at forgetting that.
Finally, Armstrong has acknowledged the fact that he doesn't compete in a lot of races the way the other 5-time winners did. He's also made the prediction that this will be the continuing trend for consistent winners of the Tour de France due to increased pressures to win, the constant "raising of the bar" in terms of what it takes to win, etc. Time will tell whether he is wrong or right. In the mean time, he's winning the Tour de France because that's what he's setting out to do. How many other races he does or does not compete in is his choice and, in my opinion, takes nothing away from his Tour de France wins.
I think that the gap has closed between Ullrich and Armstrong.
Based on the evidence of 03 TDF, Armstrong wasn't at the same level as in previous years.
I don't know why this was the case - I do know that it gets harder and harder to try to maintain the winning form, year after year.
Ullrich was a revelation in 03 : his performance was astonishing given the fact that he had a relatively poor team supporting him,
he was up against a fully commited team supporting Armstrong,
he wasn't assured of his team being given a chance to race in the TDF as well !
His performance was astonishing given all these factors.
But Armstrong, even though he was going as well as he has done
in prior years, still won the TDF !!
I think 2004 will be very interesting.
I think Ullrich can overcome Armstrong - I guess it's a case of how strong Armstrong will be this year.
If he isn't at his best, I think Ullrich can (and will) beat him.
But even saying this, I still wouldn't beat against the Texan.
Roll on 04 !
I don't agree that the gap has closed. I just think that Armstrong had a very poor year. Armstrong and many of the other riders also felt that Lance wasn't at his usual form. That said, it's an unknown whether he will ever be at his old form again or not. I think he learned from his over-confidence but we can't know until we see what 2004 holds.
Regarding Ullrich; Man! He was in fantastic form and put himself into a strong 2nd place despite, as you say, the fact that his team seemed to have left him out in the cold to fend for himself. I've even heard that Ullrich was fighting a stomach bug and suffering a fever up to and through l'Alpe d'Huez. That makes his performance even more impressive. It may well be fair to say that Lance won the 2003 event on tactics since his strength was not what we're used to seeing from him. Having said that, when I go back and watch tapes of the 2003 Tour, Armstrong's strength was still formidable. He answered a steady stream of attacks from multiple riders and kept his head above water, though waves were lapping at his lower lip on several occassions.
I hope that Armstrong comes back to his form of the 4 years prior to 2003. I'd love to see him take a sixth Tour win and I say that with a slight sense of saddness for Ullrich. How does one cope with knowing that they were born a few years too soon or a few years too early? If not for Armstrong, Ullrich would likely be looking to be in contention to break the 5-win barrier. I suppose there must always be a second place but to have been there so many times and to always be looking at the same man's back wheel on the Champs Elysees must wear at one's psyche and the desire to keep trying.
Of course, you are right : even though LA wasn't at that 100%
top form - he was still able to win.
Look at the discussion we had about Luz : he falls, he gets up, his foot slips out ofhis pedal - yet he was still able to catchup with Mayo and Ullrich - then he went past them - he catches the young French rider and wins the stage !
This is great, great cycling.
His 'champions' mentality kicked in - he had the confidence and the grit to win : and that is irreplaceable in my view.
You can never - ever - bet against this man because he has such resolve to win.
Tactically, no one can touch him at the moment.
He reads his races very well - I suspect that Bryneel plays a big part in this as well.
LA was always cagey but I think he has really improved in this aspect.
He reminds me of Hinault in that regard : they were both fighters, they both played mind games and when they were cornered they come out and win.
Having said that Ullrich needs to try to replicate LA's focus.
I think Ullrich has matured a lot : he now refers to wanting to cycle for his girlfriend and daughter.
He talks about the fact that he sees that time is running out.
I do think that he was careless in prior years in his preparation.
Like a lot of people who function solely on talent alone, they
presume they can win regardless.
Whereas I think LA assumes that he won't win unless he does
the work, prepares his way, sticks to a tried and trusted routine.
No, LA's approach and his attitude to winning the TDF has been nothing but professional.
But I do think that it gets harder and harder to replicate that level of performance year after year.
If he wins the TDF this year - I would be the first to commend him
for it.
Whatever my misgivings about him - to win six in a row would be a great achievement.
For me it would signify that he was able to do this year after year
and that for me is what impresses me about LA.
He would have proven that he was able to withstand the corrosive physical and mental stresses of having to keep winning and winning - and this for me would be his real claim to greatness.
I still think that it is cyclings loss that LA never tried to expand his palmares to include an attempt at the double.
Even a crack at the hour record would be interesting.
I think in time he might rue the fact that he never tried to do more
because I believe he had the talent to do a double.
I do too. But please... there are just so many amazing riders and quite a few are contenders.
You know it all comes down to the best team. US POSTAL looks really strong . But Hamilton is sitting pretty on a nice new team. ULRICH is back on his old team with some BIG names backing him up. hmm who else. that little spaniard who pulled Lance all last year. He has his own team.
I'd love to live in spain. wow. ((tangent sorry)
ALL I know is.......its going to be SOME RACE . that is all I can say. SOME race. My heart is pounding already just thinking about it.
I am just praying that all the big riders stay healthy and train well so the race is amazing and the winner truly worthy.
that being said...
GO LANCE!!!!!!! GO TYLER!!!!
limerickman,
You would be wise to NEVER, EVER bet against a Texan...
As far as I can see, at that point, in that race, it was all about mental toughness. Ullrich, one way or the other, let the pressure get to him. Lance seems to thrive on that pressure, and a great many champions are at there best when chaos rules around them. It was a fantastic tour, and when I saw Ullrich fall in the TT, I knew that his body was there for him, but the mind was NOT on focus.
I hope he finishes second again this year.
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