The field's much deeper this year than in recent years. All of a sudden lots of people are coming of age/finding their form. Hamilton, Vino, Heras, Ullrich, Beloki etc. It will be abnormally tough and close because of the way the Tour will be weighted towards the last week, and so Lance will have to be watching all the contenders at the same time. And they will all be targeting him.
It'll probably be a damn close run thing, and probably between more than two people, but it'll be a damn good show, and I'll definitely be rooting for no. 6!