Assuming that nobody gets expelled due to doping (whoops, there's that
word again ;-)) my projections are as follows, and note the complete
lack of candy-assing
. I'll also explain why I think these guys are
in their respective slots.
1. Ullrich - Given his rapid improvement, the big question I have is,
given the layout of this TdF, who is going to put more time on him in
the mountains than he can make up in the TT's? 2004 he was sick at the
start of the Tour, and in 2005 he couldn't keep the rubber down so I
think his first-day losses those years were more than they would have
otherwise been. In the Giro, with barely 16 or 17 days' racing in his
legs he blitzed a 50-km TT. And in the Tour de Suisse he was always in
the front in the mountains. I just don't see him coughing up 5 or more
minutes to Basso in the mountains this year. 2 to 3 minutes, yes. But
not 5 or 6.
2. Basso - the second best rider in this field. Nobody of GC
consequence will put ANY time on him in the mountains and he won't lose
enough time on the other strong-TT'ing GC contenders (Evans, Landis,
Leipheimer) to lose his place. The question is, can he put enough time
on Ullrich in the mountains (only 3 mountaintop finishes, and only one
of them in the steeper Pyrennes) to offset his inevitable TT losses?
Doubtful, IMO.
3. Cadel Evans - My 'surprise' pick. He showed up a bit short of
form in the first 2 weeks of last year's TdF but came through big-time
in the 3rd week. He's stronger this year and the only GC contender who
can *definitively* out-TT him is Ullrich. I think he's more consistent
and less prone to bad days than any of the other serious podium
candidates. He'll probably be Ullrich's equal in the mountains but
won't be able to make enough time gains on Basso in the TT's to beat
him.
4. Mancebo - I think this place is his ceiling. His TT'ing is too
weak to place him higher but he's more consistent in the mountains than
Landis or Leipheimer. There's a quantum level of difference in ability
between someone who can finish 4th in Paris and someone who can make
the podium. Ask Charly Mottet and Luc LeBlanc.
5. Landis - Eddy Merckx himself says Landis can win the TdF. However
Floyd has yet to prove to me that he can go 3 weeks without a bad day
in at least one mountain stage. He's a tremendous talent and clearly
at another level compared to last year...but until he proves the bad
days won't happen any more, I can't place him higher than this.
6. Leipheimer - Another American fan favorite...my question is
whether his TT'ing is really of sufficient caliber to match Ullrich and
Evans. Like Landis, the past has shown that while he does a good job
limiting his losses in the mountains he just can't quite stay with the
podium contenders in the TT's. Also - he may have gone deep into the
well to win the Dauphine - we'll see whether he still has something
left for the TdF. Remember, Lance himself dug deeper than he'd planned
in order to win the Dauphine in 2003, and if you read "Lance
Armstrong's War" Chris Carmichael himself said that race hurt Lance
more than helped him...and it showed at the TdF that year.
7. Valverde - He showed an awful lot of promise until his knee hurt
him last year; his first Tour of Spain showed he can go 3 weeks without
bad days. However his TT'ing is still VERY suspect, and I question
whether he'll be able to put enough time on Landis and Leipheimer in
the mountains to hold off his eventual losses in the approximately 110
km of individual time trials in this TdF.
8. Iban Mayo - I think, based on his Dauphine, he's BACK. However,
his TT'ing will still relegate him to the lower half of the top 10. I
can see him being allowed to go up the road and gain 3 - 5 minutes on a
mountain stage and maybe do what Rasmussen did last year.
9. Menchov - The winner by default of the Tour of Spain after Roberto
Heras was DQ'd. A win in the Vuelta is usually worth a top 5 in the
Tour. Since he was really second, that's worth 9th place here.
10. Hincapie - When he's on form, his TT'ing is around the level of
Cadel Evans. To me, the big question marks are whether (a) he can
handle the pressure of leading the team, and (b) like it is with Floyd
and Levi, the bad days now that he has to ride every stage with the GC
in mind. If his form improves from where it was in the Dauphine and he
goes without bad days, he could place a LOT higher than i've got him
here. But I just don't see it in his first GC assault. Yes, he won a
mountain stage...but that was also from a group that was allowed to go
20 minutes up the road and he did it without taking a single pull that
day.
******
Names I've left out:
Vinokourov: Manolo Saiz's track record of preparing specifically for
the TdF is abysmal. Whether it was Laurent Jalabert in '96, or Roberto
Heras in 2003 and 2004...he seemed to always get it wrong. I know, I
know - Saiz is no longer on the scene but I think he still had too much
of an impact and this is a case where an incompetent director stifles
the terrific athlete. Too bad for Vinokourov, as I LOVE his
aggressive, never-say-die attitude. And I hope that, if there's one
pick on which I miss the boat, this is the one.
Popovych: My own opinion is that he's been, as Paul Sherwen says, "A
bit of a deception." A podium placing in the Giro is all well and
good...but there's a world of difference between that and doing it at
the TdF. Just ask Simoni. Plus, he's probably going to wind up being
a worker for Hincapie.
Azevedo: Getting on in years and I can't see him being given priority
in the Disco food chain above Hincapie and Popovych.
Rasmussen: Can he repeat last year's effort? His stage win came as a
result of a solo - perhaps he can do it again, but he won't be given
the relatively long leash he was last year. His form this year hasn't
been noteworthy and while he could pull a rabbit out of the hat, I
don't see him being a major player in this TdF.
******
J Jones wrote:
> Enough of this doping, 'he threatened my life', 'he said, she said' stuff...
>
> Who do you think will win Le Tour this year?
>
> 1. Basso
> 2. Ullrich
> 3. Levi
>
> Dark horses include:
> 1. 'Eventual' Disco leader - I can't bet completely against Johan and the
> boys. We'll see...
> 2. Floyd (not sure of his form, and not sure his team is strong enough)
>
> Jeff
