Good time trialers give themselves a few miles to establish their gear and pace. They also have splits around 50/50 with calm winds. It is best to go out at 49% of elapsed time and 51% on the return. This works out to 98% of TT pace on the way out and 102% on the return. So if you are trying to hold 25 mph for the distance, go out at 24.5 on the way out and 25.5 mph on the way back. Again, this is for calm winds.
If you have strong tail/head winds, your splits will be radically different, but your power output should still be 98% on the way out and 102% on the way back. If you can hold 300 watts for the 25 miles, go out out at 294 watts and 306 on the way back.
One of the best stories I have heard about TT pacing is from an article written Kris Tilford from Topeka, Kansas.
"Malcohn Firth's 10 mile TT pacing suggestions agree with my thinking very much. I arrived at my conclusions over a lifetime of poor time trial riding (and a wish to improve), and much close observation of great time trial riders. In the 80s I worked for several professional teams, and was able to observe many great riders in person. The key observation for me personally was a Tour de France yime trial of more than an hour in which Bernard Hinault was one of the favourites. Hinault rolled off the start ramp, and when he hit the transition to the pavement, his sunglasses were knocked off his face. He somehow caught them in his hand, and then sat up and rode no handed, calmly placing the sunglasses back on his face, even looked around at the crowd for a moment. I was amazed, many of the others had started so seriously, some almost sprinting away. But the finish was completely different. On the run into the finish, Hinault came in like a freight train, his eyes totally focused. This was 110% riding, nothing but pure power."
"From this moment onward, I vowed to 'Start easy, Finish hard'. It has been the single most important insight in time trial riding. I'm 42 years old now, so I would have been a little over 30 then. My best 25 mile (40k) time then would have been around 58 minutes. Last weekend I rode 52:45, a personal best for me. I've never been a morning person, and all our time trials are very early morning. I never sleep beforehand, and never warm up correctly, so this time was pretty much from a cold start. It would appear that I might ride even faster if I could find a time trial that started in the afternoon or evening."
So there you have it Powermad. Go out easier and come back harder. You can even stay up late and not warm up (just kidding)!!!
Good Luck!!!