More people riding ==) less bike theft rate?

If local cycling were to significantly increase (uh, by magic?), I feel confident that there would
be more bike theft, but I suspect that the rate per (1,000 cyclists) might go down.

I figure those with the skills/means to steal bikes are a limited number, so although they may
steal more bikes, if the ridership increase were large enough (50-100% increase) they would not be
able to keep up with all the new opportunities to steal, and so the theft rate per 1,000 riders
would go down.

OTOH, theives are by nature opportunists, and the higher number of bikes might entice some who pass
by bicycles to take up a new profession. So I don't think the improved theft rate would be sustained
over time. Also, the increase in number of riders would probably increase the size of the black
market, so fencing the goods would not be an issue.

Of course, this assumes that the new cyclists use the same care in securing their bikes as the
existing population, not necessarily an accurate scenario.

Just a thought.

Austin

 

The experience in the Netherlands might be indicative--that's a hugely velo-borne society...

A Dutch friend took one look at my (admittedly primitive) U-lock here in London and said "might work
here in England. In Holland, your bike would be gone in 10 seconds."

Bicycle theft there, then, seems to be a problem--one whose importance to most people is vastly
increased because of their reliance on the bicycle as basic transportation.

If you're in any doubt, rent "Ladri di biciclette" someday...Postwar Italy. But note utter
dependence on the bicycle as a means to securing livelihood...

-Luigi