More Rabobank fun and games



Scott wrote:
> I don't know if it'll happen tomorrow, but I imagine Sastre will
> overtake Pereiro on Saturday.


Sastre is not exactly renowned as TT specialist. If anything Evans is a
better TTist at least on recent (giro and tour of romandie) form.
 
Donald Munro wrote:
> Scott wrote:
> > I don't know if it'll happen tomorrow, but I imagine Sastre will
> > overtake Pereiro on Saturday.

>
> Sastre is not exactly renowned as TT specialist. If anything Evans is a
> better TTist at least on recent (giro and tour of romandie) form.


It all depends on if the gaps change tomorrow and how much
they have left in the tank for Saturday.

I went all Dan Connelly and made an extrapolation. Suppose
there were no changes on the Joux-Plane, somebody else
takes the time bonuses, and they all ride the stage 19 TT with
the same gaps as the stage 7 TT. (Actually stage 19 is probably
a bit flatter which would favor the bigger motors.)

st.16 GC st.7 TT sum rank
1 Pereiro 0:00 2:41 2:41 1
2 Sastre 1:50 2:11 4:01 2
3 Kloden 2:29 1:43 4:12 3
4 Dessel 2:43 3:42 6:25 6
5 Evans 2:56 1:49 4:45 4
6 Menchov 3:58 1:44 5:42 5
7 Rogers 6:41 1:24 8:05 7

Among Sastre, Kloden and Evans it's really too close to call.
Somebody's virtually guaranteed to have a better/worse day on
Saturday, but who? Those three all have to try to put time on
Pereiro on Thursday; they mustn't wait for Saturday.
 
Bob Martin wrote:
> in 515084 20060719 200155 "Scott" <[email protected]> wrote:
>
> >I don't know if it'll happen tomorrow, but I imagine Sastre will
> >overtake Pereiro on Saturday.

>
> Why? They were 16th and 18th in the last ITT, only 30 secs between them.


It sort of like the warning you see associated with investment
products: past performance is no guarantee of future returns.

While it could just as easily apply to Sastre as to Pereiro, I think
Sastre will turn in a much better TT due to nothing more than his
association with DZ, BJ, and that doper guy. Team CSC is noted as
being TT crazy and some of it will rub off on Sastre.

The fact that Sastre barely beat him last time is merely history.

Scott

Disclaimer: I'm just pulling this out my a.. I don't know
who's going to win, I just hope Sastre does. Besides, it would be a
great irony if Pereiro were to win the overall, considering how he got
back into contention. That said, I think in future tours we'll see
lot's more "no hopers" try crazy breaks. Hey, if it worked for
Pereiro, it could work for them!
 
Scott wrote:

> While it could just as easily apply to Sastre as to Pereiro, I think
> Sastre will turn in a much better TT due to nothing more than his
> association with DZ, BJ, and that doper guy. Team CSC is noted as
> being TT crazy and some of it will rub off on Sastre.


Is this the introduction of a new rbr doping theory known as the rub-off
theory ? It does have some potential given that is has both doping
and sexual connotations and Lafferty could even apply it to the
LANCE/Postal/Discovery dominance in past years.
 
bjw wrote:
> It all depends on if the gaps change tomorrow and how much
> they have left in the tank for Saturday.
>
> I went all Dan Connelly and made an extrapolation. Suppose
> there were no changes on the Joux-Plane

<snip>

If there are no changes tomorrow over the Joux Plane, I will eat
Andouilette...which is to say, no way!! It will be a war.
 
Donald Munro wrote:
> Scott wrote:
>
>>I don't know if it'll happen tomorrow, but I imagine Sastre will
>>overtake Pereiro on Saturday.

>
>
> Sastre is not exactly renowned as TT specialist. If anything Evans is a
> better TTist at least on recent (giro and tour of romandie) form.
>


Cadel Evans will win the Tour.
 
Stu Fleming wrote:
> Donald Munro wrote:
> > Scott wrote:
> >
> >>I don't know if it'll happen tomorrow, but I imagine Sastre will
> >>overtake Pereiro on Saturday.

> >
> >
> > Sastre is not exactly renowned as TT specialist. If anything Evans is a
> > better TTist at least on recent (giro and tour of romandie) form.
> >

>
> Cadel Evans will win the Tour.


You may be on to something. Or, you may be on something.
 
On 19 Jul 2006 14:36:34 -0700, "Scott" <[email protected]>
wrote:

>
>Stu Fleming wrote:
>> Donald Munro wrote:
>> > Scott wrote:
>> >
>> >>I don't know if it'll happen tomorrow, but I imagine Sastre will
>> >>overtake Pereiro on Saturday.
>> >
>> >
>> > Sastre is not exactly renowned as TT specialist. If anything Evans is a
>> > better TTist at least on recent (giro and tour of romandie) form.
>> >

>>
>> Cadel Evans will win the Tour.

>
>You may be on to something. Or, you may be on something.


That would be #2, either that or our friend hasn't seen Cadel struggle
to keep up each day, tomorrwo I predict he pulls off a Giro'2002, i.e.
loses 15 minutes, let's settle for 10.
 
Mark Fennell wrote:
> bjw wrote:
> > It all depends on if the gaps change tomorrow and how much
> > they have left in the tank for Saturday.
> >
> > I went all Dan Connelly and made an extrapolation. Suppose
> > there were no changes on the Joux-Plane

> <snip>
>
> If there are no changes tomorrow over the Joux Plane, I will eat
> Andouilette...which is to say, no way!! It will be a war.


Yeah, that was sort of my point - it's all up for grabs, so there
has to be a war. T-Mobile has the biggest army, but are their
generals up to it? All the GC guys have to go for it tomorrow
if they can.

Dessel is hanging on pretty damn good, you know. He'd
probably blow to pieces if he attacked tomorrow, but it would
be fun to see just to hear the crowd, JM Leblanc, Sandy, and
everybody in the Tour organization go apeshit.
 
On Wed, 19 Jul 2006 22:15:30 +0200, Donald Munro <[email protected]>
wrote:

>Scott wrote:
>
>> While it could just as easily apply to Sastre as to Pereiro, I think
>> Sastre will turn in a much better TT due to nothing more than his
>> association with DZ, BJ, and that doper guy. Team CSC is noted as
>> being TT crazy and some of it will rub off on Sastre.

>
>Is this the introduction of a new rbr doping theory known as the rub-off
>theory ? It does have some potential given that is has both doping
>and sexual connotations and Lafferty could even apply it to the
>LANCE/Postal/Discovery dominance in past years.


Sort of a contact high but with PEDs?

Osmosis?

Ron
 
[email protected] wrote:
> Among Sastre, Kloden and Evans it's really too close to call.
> Somebody's virtually guaranteed to have a better/worse day on
> Saturday, but who? Those three all have to try to put time on
> Pereiro on Thursday; they mustn't wait for Saturday.


That is exactly the situation Zoetemelk faced in 1978, the first
time the Tour went over the Joux-Plane. It was the last day in
the mountains and his last chance to make time on Hinault before
the final time trial.

Bob Schwartz
 
Mark Fennell wrote:

> Yeah, that was sort of my point. And just a nit, but what is this 15 seconds
> you're talking about?


I screwed up, I was reading off the stage results of stage 16 instead
of stage 17. On stage 17, somebody had to attack and Sastre did,
he gained about 1:30 on Pereiro/Kloden/Evans, who all came in
close to together. But it looks like Floyd made that irrelevant.