No farking idea who is going to win...

[whiteboytrash]

Did post this at the end of a stage thread but now on the second rest day think it warrants its own discussion point;

I still have no idea who is going to win. Evans looks ok but he is vulnerable. Mechov now and then shows some strength but then drops off ever so slightly. F-Shleck looks like he really wants to win it but you get the feeling something is holding him back. His TT'ing maybe or maybe just his head. Sastre is there but spends way too much time at the back of the lead group and Valverde has shown us he can put in a top performance for a day then drops back. Kohl looks strong but I don't think he's ready to win a Tour and everyday looks to be his last before he blows. So with all that I still have no idea who is going to win. Along with all of that CSC are far stronger than any other team but it doesn't help them a hell of a lot. Yes they shell a load of riders out the back before the last climb of the day but it doesn't gain their guys minutes over their main rivals. This sure beat doped up riders kicking off the front of packs gaining 4-5 minutes on everyone else. I like the real Tour.

So who is going to win ?

 

[Klodifan]

had oscar not crashed out, I'd say Alejandro could make a comeback. Now? doubtdul. The rest of the field just look like they could crack at any moment, or all have a bad day opening the door for a ****** like VandeVelde.

If I was forced to pick, id pick denis

 

[ad9898]

F Schleck now looks a good bet, maybe Menchov, Evans lost 30-40 secs in the last few k's today, not a good sign but he has to be attacked further down the climb.

 

[whiteboytrash]

F Schleck now looks a good bet, maybe Menchov, Evans lost 30-40 secs in the last few k's today, not a good sign but he has to be attacked further down the climb.

problem being no one has enough juice (literally) to attack further down. Shleck was only able to do it on the Hautacam stage because he dragged along by a couple of old time users...... he aint going to do that on his own.

and what the good is A-Shleck ? He does the same. Drags everyone up till 3km to go....

 

[ad9898]

I really think Frank was on a good day today, Sastre is team leader though and when he went Frank couldn't go, as he would have dragged Evans up with him, Frank put the required seconds into Evans in the last 300 metres to take yellow. Evans definately needs a re-think if he wants to take the tour, it doesn't help his team being shite.

I think CSC are strong enough to isolate Evans on say the penultimate climb of the day, instead of the last one, this way they could crack him quite easily and take many minutes from him.

I know we are going back to a "doped" tour here but in '96 on that stage to Pamplona, this is what Festina and Telekom did to Indurain, putting 8+ minutes into him, same with Pantani on the Galibier in '98, Ullrich was isolated and then cracked right at the bottom of Les Deux Alpe, losing over 9 mins.

I think this is the best way to dislodge a rider with a weak team.

 

[Klodifan]

I really think Frank was on a good day today, Sastre is team leader though and when he went Frank couldn't go, as he would have dragged Evans up with him, Frank put the required seconds into Evans in the last 300 metres to take yellow. Evans definately needs a re-think if he wants to take the tour, it doesn't help his team being shite.

I think CSC are strong enough to isolate Evans on say the penultimate climb of the day, instead of the last one, this way they could crack him quite easily and take many minutes from him.

I know we are going back to a "doped" tour here but in '96 on that stage to Pamplona, this is what Festina and Telekom did to Indurain, putting 8+ minutes into him, same with Pantani on the Galibier in '98, Ullrich was isolated and then cracked right at the bottom of Les Deux Alpe, losing over 9 mins.

I think this is the best way to dislodge a rider with a weak team.

excellent points. send memo to riis.

 

[Andrija]

Very tight.

F.Schleck looks fine with his team. If Riis can explain him how to TT 50+ km., then - he's the man. More realistic option is to use the team on Restefond and d'Huez to attack Evans and Menchov and try to make 3 minutes on them.
Same goes for Sastre.

Evans and Menchov have to limit their loses on climbs and then to make up lost time in TT.

For some reason (TT for sure), I don't see Kohl in this heavyweight mix.

VandeVelde could be huge surprise, but I doubt... There's something with his performance this year that doesn't fit in.

So, 4 men for the overall, in my opinion... And they all know, as we all know, what should they do.

 

[Malkmus]

Sastre

 

[earth_dweller]

money still on menchov

but would love it if Sastre won.

 

[thoughtforfood]

Sastre

There are 6 riders with a chance of winning now. I prefer that to one guy beating the dog **** out of everyone emincely. THIS is a race.

On a side note, is it just me, or do the doping positives just not hold the drama they did in years past? The only time I thought of the positives today was when P&P brought it up. The rest of the time, I was concentrating on the race and posting....well, and the guido stuff on FID. But I watched from 6:30 am on, and it was fun to watch.

 

[earth_dweller]

There are 6 riders with a chance of winning now. I prefer that to one guy beating the dog **** out of everyone emincely. THIS is a race.

On a side note, is it just me, or do the doping positives just not hold the drama they did in years past? The only time I thought of the positives today was when P&P brought it up. The rest of the time, I was concentrating on the race and posting....well, and the guido stuff on FID. But I watched from 6:30 am on, and it was fun to watch.

agreed, I was up too at 6:30 am to watch it this morning. Had muted versus on, english eurosport video streaming (muted too), and french audio eurosport playing. almost perfect.

and tonight as a plus we get to see if they put Bruyneel & Andreu in the room at the same time. I usually don't watch the evening coverage but I might have to tune it just to see what they do.

 

[Bro Deal]

I have no idea. No one looks great. I can see any one of the contenders blowing it. Evans looks like he could crack in the mountains. Just watching him climb floods my legs with lactic acid. F. Schleck cannot time trial for ****. Sastre is not much better. Vande Velde's performance is unexplainable. Et cetera.

On an individual rider basis, it looks like it is between Evans, Vande Velde, and Menchov. Menchov looks really promising in both the climbing and time trialing department. But teamwise, CSC has come strapped and Riis is no dummy, If there is a way for Riis to put Sastre or Schleck into yellow in Paris, Riis will probably find it.

Evans' team is a joke. I posted this before, but it is his own fault. There is no way Armstrong would allow his fate to rest on a weak ass team like the one that Evans has. Horner is laughing his ass off right about now.

I think I will bet on Menchov.

 

[Malkmus]

There are 6 riders with a chance of winning now. I prefer that to one guy beating the dog **** out of everyone emincely. THIS is a race.

On a side note, is it just me, or do the doping positives just not hold the drama they did in years past? The only time I thought of the positives today was when P&P brought it up. The rest of the time, I was concentrating on the race and posting....well, and the guido stuff on FID. But I watched from 6:30 am on, and it was fun to watch.

Yeah. There is no suspense in the doping positives. Its too easy to spot the guys doing it.

BTW. My sister and my nephew were both on TV on the Hautacam. Weird. My sister says that there were virtually no Americans on the mountain. Lance years are over.

 

[oely]

Evans' team is a joke. I posted this before, but it is his own fault. There is no way Armstrong would allow his fate to rest on a weak ass team like the one that Evans has. Horner is laughing his ass off right about now.

I think I will bet on Menchov.

What could Evans of done more? He is still a foreigner on a Belgian team and he had no bargaining power when he joined them. Joined a team without a huge budget, and little to no GC ambitions. After some time he got some people he wanted, Cioni (close personal friend) and that italian coach to came on board, and he helped Horner get on the team in the first place.

Evans was ****** at the Lotto management last year letting Horner go, and quite rightly. Each year they **** up by screwing over their valuable riders (previous year it was Steegmans). Evans would of done all he could to keep Horner im sure, they rode well together and Horner would turn himself inside out to help him. Cant compare Evans position to one of Armstrongs.

 

[Capt.Injury]

excellent points. send memo to riis.

IF i recall right wasn't Riis one of the guys that dragged Ulrich up the mountain that day Pantani won?

I actually think Tuesday will be a bigger day then more people think. Because once you top that biggest climb is 27 K downhill. So if maybe 3 or 4 guys can cross the top together with Evans behind, they can pull away on teh descent, and create a massive gap.

QUestion: HOw technical is the downhill section of the Restorford (I believe is the name of the climb)

 

[stilesiii]

Okay, I'll be a homer. Sign me up on the Vande Velde bandwagon.

I don't think he has the team, but no focus is on him. I think CSC tries to isolate Evans and Menchov allowing Vande Velde to move ahead of Both in the GC. Then on the TT easily beats Schleck, Sastre and Kohl.

Schleck and Kohl will be under pressure to put at least 4 minutes into Menchov, Evans and Vande Velde.

Maybe the TT riders band together and try to hold off the goats. Considering Evans, Menchov and Vande Velde don't have much team support, maybe we see some cooperation.

This Tour is great. I don't think booting the dopers hurts the Tour, I think it helps. To hell with the dopers, the peleton moves on.

 

[Drongo]

I really think Frank was on a good day today, Sastre is team leader though and when he went Frank couldn't go, as he would have dragged Evans up with him, Frank put the required seconds into Evans in the last 300 metres to take yellow. Evans definately needs a re-think if he wants to take the tour, it doesn't help his team being shite.

I think CSC are strong enough to isolate Evans on say the penultimate climb of the day, instead of the last one, this way they could crack him quite easily and take many minutes from him.

I know we are going back to a "doped" tour here but in '96 on that stage to Pamplona, this is what Festina and Telekom did to Indurain, putting 8+ minutes into him, same with Pantani on the Galibier in '98, Ullrich was isolated and then cracked right at the bottom of Les Deux Alpe, losing over 9 mins.

I think this is the best way to dislodge a rider with a weak team.

Good analysis.

This is what happened to Valverde/Cunego on Stage 10, but the opportunity to do it in the Alps is much better.

That said, I think Menchov is the favourite at this stage, unless Evans can improve. Menchov must be cursing the 40" he gave away at the start of the Tour.

 

[sonicman]

Good analysis.

This is what happened to Valverde/Cunego on Stage 10, but the opportunity to do it in the Alps is much better.

That said, I think Menchov is the favourite at this stage, unless Evans can improve. Menchov must be cursing the 40" he gave away at the start of the Tour.

Rabobank is not much stronger than Lotto, though. He'd be glad to be 30 seconds closer to the yellow jersey, but I don't think he's that sad about not wearing the jersey now. His job now should be putting 1:30 into Evans and Vandevelde in the next 2 stages, and not losing significant time to Kohl, Schleck and Sastre. Then he'd be 1 minute ahead of the biggest TT threats, what should be enough for his win. One thing I wonder, after being 5th at the Giro and now pushing hard at the Tour, won't he crack at some point?

Probably one of those six will TT for his life Saturday. I'd say Vandevelde, no one would ever bet he'd be there, plus, at 32 this should be the chance of his life. Sastre fits in this category too, but he's a regular TTer and no more.

 

[confusedfan]

What could Evans of done more? He is still a foreigner on a Belgian team and he had no bargaining power when he joined them. Joined a team without a huge budget, and little to no GC ambitions. After some time he got some people he wanted, Cioni (close personal friend) and that italian coach to came on board, and he helped Horner get on the team in the first place.

Evans was ****** at the Lotto management last year letting Horner go, and quite rightly. Each year they **** up by screwing over their valuable riders (previous year it was Steegmans). Evans would of done all he could to keep Horner im sure, they rode well together and Horner would turn himself inside out to help him. Cant compare Evans position to one of Armstrongs.

Agreed. Seems to me that the Omega Pharma people (ie. Marc Coucke) are more concerned about how little money they can spend on riders in contrast to how much they can make on their new Silence product (they're already rolling out the product in Australia as well to capitalize on publicity from the yellow jersey - they even painted employee cars yellow apparently last week...) - I can't think of any other sponsor who's changed the team name/colours/jerseys/etc to promote different products and not just once but twice in the last 2 years. Unfortunately for Evans, I'm not sure he had much choice in teams when he was looking for a new contract in 2004 (for the 2005 season), sounds like McEwen was a big influence in getting the team to take Evans on. Evans has said (and even signed some sort of preliminary thing IIRC) that he's likely signing with them again for next year, but I don't think anything's 100% official yet.

 

[Grater]

None of these main contenders have cracked yet, Kirchen has. I still reckon Kirchen time trials himself onto the podium on Saturday and I still reckon he will regroup to get some time back on stage 17 when everyone else crumbles.

As to who wins. Kohl.