No farking idea who is going to win...

[Anticyclone]

This idea interests me. Though it's hard for me to imagine it.

I dont mean anything pre-planned but maybe something ad hoc if they are both in a similar situation, ie if Sastre burns off and Evans' team cant chase him down then Menchov wont want to see his hopes disappear up the road as well. I dont think it would apply on a final climb as the stronger rider would want to take time off the weaker one.

 

[classic1]

This idea interests me. Though it's hard for me to imagine it.

Superman and Batman tried it in the old 'Justice League of America' days. It didn't really work then either.

 

[fscyclist]

And quite rightly so - legends grab the Tour by the scruff of the neck, tear off the front and put time into their rivals. They get remembered forever...

Tour winners that finish between 6th and 12th on every stage might win the Tour but will only be remembered for about 72 hours.

+1.

 

[fscyclist]

I want two people to win:

1) Schlek
2) Anybody except Evans

I was a huge Ullrich fan and haven't really warmed to anybody until now. I'm loving the Schlek one-two with strong CSC support from Cancy/Voight/Sastre (who can go on the win the thing himself!).

Above all of that though - the top six riders within ONE minute of each other after 64 hours of racing? Fantastic!

To quote the old yellow arches "I'm loving it!". This is the most exciting Tour in some years.

Here's to Schlek gaining a big enough buffer in the mountains on Evans to stay ahead of him after the final TT.

Oh and Zabel to win a stage. Now that Cavendish is out he has better chance of dragging that old body over the line first...

I've always like CSC under Riis' direction. I didn't like Riis as a rider, but think he is the best DS around and I love the way he manages his team. I still haven't seen a rider in this tour that is of the 'legend' making but am pulling for Schleck at this point.

 

[fscyclist]

On Tuesday CSC need to attack on the first climb, send Sastre off from the group and let Schleck sit in and watch how the others respond. If they wait til Alpe D then Evans and Menchov will be able to do enough to hang on.

I agree... I think tomorrow will be the decider and Alpe D'huez will probably be won by a climber out of GC contention. Riis knows what he's doing, and I expect something big tomorrow, as long as his riders have it in them.

 

[earth_dweller]

This idea interests me. Though it's hard for me to imagine it.

yeah but will Evans let Menchov touch his ... lion


Okay I agree that CSC needs to split up their GC guys and make the other contenders suffer. But I think that they will sacrifice Schleck for Sastre.

 

[Anticyclone]

yeah but will Evans let Menchov touch his ... lion


Okay I agree that CSC needs to split up their GC guys and make the other contenders suffer. But I think that they will sacrifice Schleck for Sastre.

It might be a case of who is lucky enough to make the decisive attack rather than being pre-planned. Maybe they might have Sastre in mind though - he's 33 and shouldnt be at the top in a few years time. Schleck should be around for years yet.

 

[whiteboytrash]

It might be a case of who is lucky enough to make the decisive attack rather than being pre-planned. Maybe they might have Sastre in mind though - he's 33 and shouldnt be at the top in a few years time. Schleck should be around for years yet.

If only Slipstream could launch TommyD off the front of the peleton.

 

[TheDarkLord]

yeah but will Evans let Menchov touch his ... lion

I don't think Evans will let anyone touch his lion. But he probably ain't gonna get another lion unless he works with him. To his credit, he hasn't really sucked his wheel that much.

Okay I agree that CSC needs to split up their GC guys and make the other contenders suffer. But I think that they will sacrifice Schleck for Sastre.

Do you think they will try something tomorrow or will they wait until Wednesday?

 

[earth_dweller]

I don't think Evans will let anyone touch his lion. But he probably ain't gonna get another lion unless he works with him. To his credit, he hasn't really sucked his wheel that much.


Do you think they will try something tomorrow or will they wait until Wednesday?

I think they'll wait til Wednesday but will strike if someone else attacks and detonates the race

 

[hawkeye87]

If only Slipstream could launch TommyD off the front of the peleton.

LOL! His phantom would be more effective than the real thing! ;-)

 

[teetopkram]

LOL! His phantom would be more effective than the real thing! ;-)

My gut tells me either on Tuesday or Wednesday, more likely the latter, Sastre is just going to slay up the hills and gain enough time to cover his TT losses. If Evans performance on Sunday was just a one-time bad day, then I think he can hang close enough to limit his losses such that he can make it up on the TT. However, if he's fading in general, then Sastre is the man.

 

[Rolfrae]

If only Slipstream could launch TommyD off the front of the peleton.

From a cannon?

 

[Crankyfeet]

And quite rightly so - legends grab the Tour by the scruff of the neck, tear off the front and put time into their rivals. They get remembered forever...

Tour winners that finish between 6th and 12th on every stage might win the Tour but will only be remembered for about 72 hours.

That's about 71.5 hours longer than they would be remembered if they tried to be a hero... rode outside their capability level... and finished 5th-10th.

I'd take an ugly smart TdF victory over a dumbarsed 7th trying to be attractive to the fans.. any day.

 

[TheDarkLord]

That's about 71.5 hours longer than he would be remembered if they tried to be a hero... rode outside their capability level... and finished 5th-10th.

I'd take an ugly smart TdF victory over a dumbarsed 7th trying to be attractive to the fans.. any day.

Eldron's point is that a person who wins the Tour by riding aggressively is remembered more than one who wins Cadel style. Since the hypothetical rider in your situation doesn't win the yellow jersey, he is irrelevant to this discussion. Now, I'm not sure I agree with Eldron's point although I do see that there is probably "more fame and glory" with such a win. But, since the age of racing being doped to the gills seems to be over (and that does not mean that the riders now are riding clean), I'm also not sure if such a dominant person exists today. I personally prefer the race as it is this year.

 

[Crankyfeet]

Eldron's point is that a person who wins the Tour by riding aggressively is remembered more than one who wins Cadel style. Since the hypothetical rider in your situation doesn't win the yellow jersey, he is irrelevant to this discussion. Now, I'm not sure I agree with Eldron's point although I do see that there is probably "more fame and glory" with such a win. But, since the age of racing being doped to the gills seems to be over (and that does not mean that the riders now are riding clean), I'm also not sure if such a dominant person exists today. I personally prefer the race as it is this year.

Eldron's point only makes sense from the point of view of the observer. Given two winners... obviously the aggressive rider who dominates with style is seen more as a hero, and preferable to watch compared to the passive "wear 'em down" type.

From the perspective of the individual rider though... you adopt the best strategy to win. Trying to be be pretty and ride with attacking panache if it risks you losing the race is just insecure vanity to me... and dumb. It takes a lot of guts to ride ugly and win... it is far easier to cave to pressure and try to be glamorous IMO at the expense of possibly blowing up and losing chunks of time. If you are dominant enough however, or you are stronger as a climber than as a TT'er... sticking it to your opponents and attacking on mountain stages would be your best strategy.

 

[phillop]

evans wont win, he wont tt much faster (if at all) than vandevelde and menchov, and he is clearly not climbing any where near as well as them.
csc should send andy schleck clear from the start of the first climb to see how the other team reacts when he takes the virtual lead.
if the dont frank and sastre go together and csc has 3 men off the front. vandevelde menchov evans and kohl (unless hes good enough to go with csc) dont have any team mates to chase. then if they need to they can make the choice of frank scleck or sastre on the road.

 

[Capt.Injury]

evans wont win, he wont tt much faster (if at all) than vandevelde and menchov, and he is clearly not climbing any where near as well as them.
csc should send andy schleck clear from the start of the first climb to see how the other team reacts when he takes the virtual lead.
if the dont frank and sastre go together and csc has 3 men off the front. vandevelde menchov evans and kohl (unless hes good enough to go with csc) dont have any team mates to chase. then if they need to they can make the choice of frank scleck or sastre on the road.

Talking about men off the front, Silence needs to desperately do that, since they prove to not be able to protect Evans. Maybe sends Aerts off the front, (I dont know how far back Popo is, but i doubt they will give him that much leeway).

Gerolsteiner needs to do the same for Kohl, give him a man up the road and may be attack on the Croix de Fer and bridge up to him.

These other contenders need to try something to break the stranglehold that CSC has.

As far as this stage, If he can stay with the main group of contenders which he did for most of the last stage, i really like Sammy Sanchez for the win with the way he can descend.

 

[hard boiled]

I'm hoping that the top five GC are still more or less drawn after the ITT and Etampes-Paris is the tie-breaker. The green jersey's already decided, so this would save a wasted stage.

 

[Anticyclone]

Evans claimed on cyclingnews that he lost time on the final climb because he was worried he might fall off if he tried sprinting given that Menchov had and Pereiro had had his crash early in the stage. Hmmm. Might be some truth in there perhaps, especially as Evans isnt very practised at sprinting up climbs.

I dont agree that you only remember people who dominated a tour. The stage that got me interested in cycling was the stage where Stephen Roche staged an amazing comeback on the climb up to La Plagne (although he was helped by Delgado cracking). Maybe we could see a similar situation unfold in the next few days where a climber knows they need x minutes on someone in the final tt and ends up pushing too hard?