Odds Armstrong is dropped on Alpe d'Huez?

Discussion in 'Road Cycling' started by Timbenz, Jul 10, 2003.

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  1. Timbenz

    Timbenz Guest

    Okay, I'll get out in the open: I give even odds that Armstrong is dropped on L'Alpe d'Huez, and 5-2
    odds he is dropped in the Pyrenees. Why?

    1) Because other cyclists say he doesn't look as strong this year
    2) Because Armstrong doesn't look good in photos this year, both in the Daupine and now -- he looks
    gaunt and suffering
    3) Because he is about the same age as Indurain when he lost his climbing form. And the route that
    year (1996), like this one, entered the Alps early.
    4) Because the quality of the field this year is much better than recently and Armstrong will be
    harassed relentlessly by climbers.
    5) Because everyone is waiting for him to do "The Look, Pt. 2" on Huez
    6) Because he says he isn't pedalling well. Yes, I know this could be psy ops, but combine that with
    his prologue results and it seems ominous

    Color me cheerfully looking forward to a great few days of cycling this weekend ....

    T.
     
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  2. Shawn Jelley wrote:
    > btw, indurain only won his first tour when he was 31, he won his fifth when he was 35, so that
    > means he 'lost' his climbing form around his 36th year.

    This is incorrect.
     
  3. Doug Taylor

    Doug Taylor Guest

    "Shawn Jelley" <[email protected]> wrote:

    >regardless, the race looks to be much closer this year than it was the last 4, which i think is a
    >good thing, a very good thing. you know what i think ? if LA blows apart in the mountains, it is
    >Heras's race to lose. Roberto is really one of the few climbers left who can put irrecoverable time
    >gaps into people during the mountains, a.l.a. pantani. and Heras may not be a TT demon but he is
    >probably one of the better climbers TT-wise out there today.

    That didn't hold for last years Vuelta (though maybe there's more climbing in this years TDF) If
    Armstrong blows, odds are still in favor of Ullrich and Belocki as better TT'ers climbingwise. Or a
    healthy Tyler. --dt
     
  4. Corey Green

    Corey Green Guest

    TimBenz <[email protected]> wrote in message
    news:<[email protected]>...
    > Okay, I'll get out in the open: I give even odds that Armstrong is dropped on L'Alpe d'Huez, and
    > 5-2 odds he is dropped in the Pyrenees. Why?
    >
    > 1) Because other cyclists say he doesn't look as strong this year

    They were saying that last year when he didn't win the first time trial. How did he look in the
    mountains last year?

    > 2) Because Armstrong doesn't look good in photos this year, both in the Daupine and now -- he
    > looks gaunt and suffering

    He looks thin - how do you get suffering out of the photos of him? On the interviews on OLN he looks
    fine and actually cracks a smile now and then.

    > 3) Because he is about the same age as Indurain when he lost his climbing form. And the route that
    > year (1996), like this one, entered the Alps early.

    I don't believe you can even compare the two on climbing form. I don't know if I remember ever
    seeing Indurain out of the saddle for more than a moment, while Indurain was who helped Lance learn
    that spinning was the way to go, Lance's spin seems to be at a higher cadence than Indurain's was.

    > 4) Because the quality of the field this year is much better than recently and Armstrong will be
    > harassed relentlessly by climbers.

    Luckily three of those other competitive climbers are on his own team (Heras, Rubiera, Beltran).
    You'll have to look hard for a team with four good climbers. Landis and Hincapie were also
    instrumental last year by keeping the pace high early in the climbs to prevent early attacks. The
    rest of his team climbers kept the pace later in the climbs to help prevent and react to attacks. As
    much as the other riders want to say it is ONE ON ONE, it isn't.

    > 5) Because everyone is waiting for him to do "The Look, Pt. 2" on Huez

    Is this really a reason to think he will be dropped?

    > 6) Because he says he isn't pedalling well. Yes, I know this could be psy ops, but combine that
    > with his prologue results and it seems ominous

    2002 - 7.3km - Lance won by 2 seconds 2001 - 8.2km - Lance lost by 4 seconds 2000 - 16.5km - Lance
    lost by 2 seconds 1999 - 6.8km - Lance won by 7 seconds

    I see no pattern that says the prologue should be any indicator of anything. Besides, in a race of
    this length your form will probably change several times over the length of the race.

    >
    > Color me cheerfully looking forward to a great few days of cycling this weekend ....
    >

    Yes, it will be interesting to see what happens, but as one of last year's doubters I came to
    realize there is more to the race than how Lance feels. As long as he avoids a Santiago Botero type
    implosion from last year, his team will keep him in the hunt, even if he isn't up to absolutely
    perfect form.

    > T.

    Corey
     
  5. "Shawn Jelley" <[email protected]> wrote in message
    news:e%[email protected]...
    > btw, indurain only won his first tour when he was 31, he won his fifth
    when
    > he was 35,

    Indurain won his last tour when he was 31. Check out:

    http://www.angelfire.com/realm/cvccbikers/tour/tour_age.html

    > ullrich really shouldn't speak too loudly about others considering his
    lack
    > of anything over the past year,

    As much as I'm a fan of Lance, I have a great deal of respect for Jan. For the amount of "talent" he
    has, He is probably one of the more softspoken GC contenders, unlike Pantani, Simoni, etc.

    <Snip>

    I tend to agree with the rest of your comments. Depending on his form, I would not be surprised if
    Lance attempted to "Destroy" the field this year in the mountains. With Ullrich in top form next
    year, I think the chances of
    #6 a very slim and this would be Lance's way of putting his mark in Tour
    history - The last time there was more than a ten minute margin was 1984.

    -T
     
  6. Goulot

    Goulot Guest

    > Luckily three of those other competitive climbers are on his own team (Heras, Rubiera, Beltran).
    > You'll have to look hard for a team with four good climbers.

    sweet mighty dollars
     
  7. Shawn Jelley

    Shawn Jelley Guest

    oops. i could have sworn...

    "Daniel Connelly" <[email protected]> wrote in message
    news:[email protected]...
    >
    >
    > Shawn Jelley wrote:
    > > btw, indurain only won his first tour when he was 31, he won his fifth
    when
    > > he was 35, so that means he 'lost' his climbing form around his 36th
    year.
    >
    >
    > This is incorrect.
     
  8. Brian P

    Brian P Guest

    Wow. Where to begin...could this be a troll? "TimBenz" <[email protected]> wrote in message
    news:[email protected]...
    > Okay, I'll get out in the open: I give even odds that Armstrong is dropped on L'Alpe d'Huez, and
    > 5-2 odds he is dropped in the Pyrenees. Why?
    >
    > 1) Because other cyclists say he doesn't look as strong this year
    They were saying the same things before Dauphine.

    > 2) Because Armstrong doesn't look good in photos this year, both in the Daupine and now -- he
    > looks gaunt and suffering
    Are you stoned? He looks smooth as silk in the TTT. I completely disagree.

    > 3) Because he is about the same age as Indurain when he lost his climbing form. And the route that
    > year (1996), like this one, entered the Alps early.
    I may be wrong, but I thing Inurain was older and not in nearly as good of shape in 96.

    > 4) Because the quality of the field this year is much better than recently and Armstrong will be
    > harassed relentlessly by climbers.
    these same climbers were chirping just as loud last year, only to be beaten again, and again...

    > 5) Because everyone is waiting for him to do "The Look, Pt. 2" on Huez
    get off the pipe.

    > 6) Because he says he isn't pedalling well. Yes, I know this could be psy ops, but combine that
    > with his prologue results and it seems ominous
    Remember that this is the same guy who played lame 2 years ago and the leaders bit it hook line
    and sinker.

    > Color me cheerfully looking forward to a great few days of cycling this weekend ....
    The only thing you've said that I agree with.

    I will say that it is possible that LA loses the TDF, but he wont get dropped.
     
  9. Troy

    Troy Guest

    TimBenz <[email protected]> wrote in message
    news:<[email protected]>...
    > Okay, I'll get out in the open: I give even odds that Armstrong is dropped on L'Alpe d'Huez, and
    > 5-2 odds he is dropped in the Pyrenees. Why?
    >
    > 1) Because other cyclists say he doesn't look as strong this year
    > 2) Because Armstrong doesn't look good in photos this year, both in the Daupine and now -- he
    > looks gaunt and suffering
    > 3) Because he is about the same age as Indurain when he lost his climbing form. And the route that
    > year (1996), like this one, entered the Alps early.
    > 4) Because the quality of the field this year is much better than recently and Armstrong will be
    > harassed relentlessly by climbers.
    > 5) Because everyone is waiting for him to do "The Look, Pt. 2" on Huez
    > 6) Because he says he isn't pedalling well. Yes, I know this could be psy ops, but combine that
    > with his prologue results and it seems ominous
    >
    > Color me cheerfully looking forward to a great few days of cycling this weekend ....
    >
    > T.

    It seems there's a crack in his armor this year. If he doesn't ride away from the field what might
    be wrong? Nobody's mentioned the possibility that he might be ill again... We'll all see in the next
    little while.
     
  10. Brian P wrote:
    >
    > I may be wrong, but I thing Inurain was older and not in nearly as good of shape in 96.
    >

    Indurain won Dauphine Libere in 1996, then went on to win the Olympic Time Trial in Atlanta.

    Dan
     
  11. Goulot

    Goulot Guest

    "Shawn Jelley" <[email protected]> a écrit dans le message de
    news:e%[email protected]...
    > btw, indurain only won his first tour when he was 31, he won his fifth
    when
    > he was 35, so that means he 'lost' his climbing form around his 36th year.

    He was born on jully 16th 1964, and won his last tour the 23rd of jully
    95....
     
  12. Goulot

    Goulot Guest

    July, I mean, you know... "goulot" <[email protected]> a écrit dans le message de
    news:[email protected]...
    >
    > "Shawn Jelley" <[email protected]> a écrit dans le message de
    > news:e%[email protected]...
    > > btw, indurain only won his first tour when he was 31, he won his fifth
    > when
    > > he was 35, so that means he 'lost' his climbing form around his 36th
    year.
    >
    > He was born on jully 16th 1964, and won his last tour the 23rd of jully
    > 95....
     
  13. Keith

    Keith Guest

    >3) Because he is about the same age as Indurain when he lost his climbing form. And the route that
    > year (1996), like this one, entered the Alps early.
    No one year younger. The "bad" age is 32, that's when Merckx failed to win his 6th tour in 1977 and
    Hinault in 1986.
     
  14. Keith

    Keith Guest

    On Fri, 11 Jul 2003 16:56:42 GMT, "Shawn Jelley" <[email protected]> wrote:

    >btw, indurain only won his first tour when he was 31, he won his fifth when he was 35, so that
    >means he 'lost' his climbing form around his 36th year. now being that armstrong is nearly 32,
    >according to your age theory he should have his climbing form until about 2006-7 ?
    >
    >ullrich really shouldn't speak too loudly about others

    I think you should apply this type of advice to yourself. The fact that you're off a good 4 years on
    Indurain's age when he won the tour doesn't give a lot of credit to your assertions...
     
  15. K. J. Papai

    K. J. Papai Guest

    "Shawn Jelley" <[email protected]> wrote in message
    news:<e%[email protected]>...
    > btw, indurain only won his first tour when he was 31, he won his fifth when he was 35, so that
    > means he 'lost' his climbing form around his 36th year. now being that armstrong is nearly 32,
    > according to your age theory he

    BULLSHIT. Miguel Indurain was born in 1964. He was 27 years old in 1991. I looked it up.

    > should have his climbing form until about 2006-7 ? oh and indurain was also overweight at the
    > start of the '96 tour, unfortunately for him the weather wasn't very good over the first week and
    > he couldn't drop the extra 1-2 kilos he needed. i doubt armstrong is lugging around 2 extra kilos
    > on his frame, even if he was stages like the TTT surely went a long way toward losing it. could it
    > also be ullrich shat himself when he beat lance in the prologue ? its been so long since ullrich
    > really beat lance in anything that immediately armstrong isn't at the same level of fitness. maybe
    > he is, maybe he isn't, surely we will know by the time the race reaches Huez on sunday.
    >
    > ullrich really shouldn't speak too loudly about others considering his lack of anything over the
    > past year, anyone who has ever raced a bike knows the stark difference between racing and
    > training. even this year, how many days has ullrich raced ? even though jan looks to be in
    > excellent form, can a man with probably 3 weeks of racing in the last year and a half be expected
    > to hold form all the way thru the mountains of Le Tour ? i have my doubts about him just as well.
    >
    > and i somehow doubt that armstrong would be this forthcoming about issues with his form, when a
    > man who is never that forthcoming about that kind of information all of a sudden is, you have to
    > wonder what his motives are. i wouldn't even be saying that if it weren't for 'The look' in 2001.
    >
    > lastly, armstrong shouldn't really have to fear the pure climbers all that much unless he blows
    > spectacularly early in a mountain stage. you know and I know that most pure climbers cannot time
    > trial if their life depended on it, mayo is an exception but he claims that he doesn't care about
    > the GC. simoni may put up a good fight this time around, just as he might of last year, but even
    > with his gains in the mountains can he really hope to make up 3+ min on armstrong with LA's TT
    > skills ? i don't know.

    " Lance (Armstrong) is the best climber in the world. Our job is to protect Lance as long as
    possible for him to do his job. We're feeling confident " — U.S. Postal teammate George Hincapie,
    July, 2003

    There are no "pure climbers" who can go up a mountain better than Lance. Lance is a Pure Climber
    *and* a Pure Time Trialist. He's also a primo bike handler.

    -Ken

    > regardless, the race looks to be much closer this year than it was the last 4, which i think is a
    > good thing, a very good thing. you know what i think ? if LA blows apart in the mountains, it is
    > Heras's race to lose. Roberto is really one of the few climbers left who can put irrecoverable
    > time gaps into people during the mountains, a.l.a. pantani. and Heras may not be a TT demon but he
    > is probably one of the better climbers TT-wise out there today.
    >
    > allez lance !
    >
    > shawn
     
  16. Corey Green

    Corey Green Guest

    "Troy" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:[email protected]...
    > TimBenz <[email protected]> wrote in message
    news:<[email protected]>...
    > > Okay, I'll get out in the open: I give even odds that Armstrong is
    dropped
    > > on L'Alpe d'Huez, and 5-2 odds he is dropped in the Pyrenees. Why?
    > >
    > > 1) Because other cyclists say he doesn't look as strong this year
    > > 2) Because Armstrong doesn't look good in photos this year, both in the Daupine and now -- he
    > > looks gaunt and suffering
    > > 3) Because he is about the same age as Indurain when he lost his
    climbing
    > > form. And the route that year (1996), like this one, entered the Alps early.
    > > 4) Because the quality of the field this year is much better than
    recently
    > > and Armstrong will be harassed relentlessly by climbers.
    > > 5) Because everyone is waiting for him to do "The Look, Pt. 2" on Huez
    > > 6) Because he says he isn't pedalling well. Yes, I know this could be
    psy
    > > ops, but combine that with his prologue results and it seems ominous
    > >
    > > Color me cheerfully looking forward to a great few days of cycling this weekend ....
    > >
    > > T.
    >
    >
    > It seems there's a crack in his armor this year. If he doesn't ride away from the field what might
    > be wrong? Nobody's mentioned the possibility that he might be ill again... We'll all see in the
    > next little while.

    What is the "crack" in this armor? I have yet to see anything that resembled such a thing. If you
    have something to say, say it. Don't post this bullshit without some sort of opinion.
     
  17. Pappy gushed:

    > There are no "pure climbers" who can go up a mountain better than Lance. Lance is a Pure Climber
    > *and* a Pure Time Trialist. He's also a primo bike handler.
    >
    > -Ken

    You forgot to mention how dreamy he is.
     
  18. On 7/11/03 10:56 AM, in article e%[email protected], "Shawn Jelley"
    <[email protected]> wrote:

    > btw, indurain only won his first tour when he was 31, he won his fifth when he was 35, so that
    > means he 'lost' his climbing form around his 36th year.

    Dude ... You're talking completely out of your ass.

    Indurain was born on 16 July 1964 ... He won his first tour in 1991, when he was 27, and his 5th in
    1995, when he was 31.
     
  19. On 7/11/03 4:17 PM, in article [email protected], "Keith"
    <[email protected]> wrote:

    >
    >> 3) Because he is about the same age as Indurain when he lost his climbing form. And the route
    >> that year (1996), like this one, entered the Alps early.
    > No one year younger. The "bad" age is 32, that's when Merckx failed to win his 6th tour in 1977
    > and Hinault in 1986.

    Hinault turned 32 in November 1986 ... In fact he retired ON his 32nd birthday. So he failed to win
    his 6th Tour when he was 31.
     
  20. "TimBenz" <[email protected]> wrote in message
    news:[email protected]...
    > Okay, I'll get out in the open: I give even odds that Armstrong is dropped on L'Alpe d'Huez, and
    > 5-2 odds he is dropped in the Pyrenees. Why?
    >
    > 1) Because other cyclists say he doesn't look as strong this year

    They wish.

    > 2) Because Armstrong doesn't look good in photos this year, both in the Daupine and now -- he
    > looks gaunt and suffering

    Whilst winning.

    > 3) Because he is about the same age as Indurain when he lost his climbing form. And the route that
    > year (1996), like this one, entered the Alps early.

    Tell that to Joop, Francesco or Mario who are/were winnning riders way into their 30s.

    > 4) Because the quality of the field this year is much better than recently and Armstrong will be
    > harassed relentlessly by climbers.

    Always been plenty of good climbers. Only reason Lance will be dropped on Alpe is some Spaniard or
    Colombian having a super day who rides away while Lance keeps an eye on his rivals.

    > 5) Because everyone is waiting for him to do "The Look, Pt. 2" on Huez
    > 6) Because he says he isn't pedalling well. Yes, I know this could be psy ops, but combine that
    > with his prologue results and it seems ominous

    A prologue ridden on cobbles over 6km means nothing.

    Lance by 6-8 mins in Paris.

    Hamish Ferguson (Ullrich fan, Jan to win in 2004-5!!!)

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