odds for TDF

[Andre]

Cadel Evans 1.45 @
Alejandro Valverde 2.10 @
Denis Menchov 2.20 @
Damiano Cunego 3.25 @
Andy Schleck 3.75 @
Carlos Sastre 4.25 @
Stijn Devolder 6.75 @
Juan Mauricio Soler Hernández 8.50 @


This is reasonably accurate...except I don't think Cunego and Sastre
will place that high. And I would replace A. Schleck with Kirchen. And
move Valverde ahead of Evans the wheel sucker.

So it could look like this:

Valverde
Evans
Menchov
Devolder
Kirchen
Soler
Sastre
A. Schleck
F. Schleck
Monfort

Andre

 

[ronaldo_jeremiah]

On Jun 22, 12:05 pm, Andre <[email protected]> wrote:
> Cadel Evans 1.45  @
> Alejandro Valverde 2.10  @
> Denis Menchov 2.20  @
> Damiano Cunego 3.25  @
> Andy Schleck 3.75  @
> Carlos Sastre 4.25  @
> Stijn Devolder 6.75  @
> Juan Mauricio Soler Hernández 8.50  @
>
> This is reasonably accurate...

The accuracy of these odds cannot be assessed. You mean it looks good
to you.

> except I don't think Cunego and Sastre
> will place that high.

These are win odds, so it doesn't really have that much to do with how
high a guy will place. Perhaps the person who set these odds thinks
Cunego is a good prospect to win, but will DNF otherwise. the odds
don't have to reflect consistency.

> And I would replace A. Schleck with Kirchen.

Not after Saturday, you shouldn't.

> And
> move Valverde ahead of Evans the wheel sucker.

Wheelsucking can win races, if you suck the right wheels.

-rj

 

[Mike Jacoubowsky]

> This is reasonably accurate...except I don't think Cunego and Sastre
> will place that high. And I would replace A. Schleck with Kirchen. And
> move Valverde ahead of Evans the wheel sucker.

No, I think they have the Evans/Valverde thing correct. Evans has a very
cool head on his shoulders, and he'll do what needs to be done. Valverde is
far more likely to overdo it and blow up. Give Valverde a year or two. For
the time being, Evans is the "safe" bet, and this is a betting line, after
all.

--Mike Jacoubowsky
Chain Reaction Bicycles
www.ChainReaction.com
Redwood City & Los Altos, CA USA



"Andre" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:846e9f9c-df03-412f-b00f-1ab5b4e4608e@d77g2000hsb.googlegroups.com...
Cadel Evans 1.45 @
Alejandro Valverde 2.10 @
Denis Menchov 2.20 @
Damiano Cunego 3.25 @
Andy Schleck 3.75 @
Carlos Sastre 4.25 @
Stijn Devolder 6.75 @
Juan Mauricio Soler Hernández 8.50 @


This is reasonably accurate...except I don't think Cunego and Sastre
will place that high. And I would replace A. Schleck with Kirchen. And
move Valverde ahead of Evans the wheel sucker.

So it could look like this:

Valverde
Evans
Menchov
Devolder
Kirchen
Soler
Sastre
A. Schleck
F. Schleck
Monfort

Andre

 

[Kurgan Gringioni]

On Jun 22, 10:59 am, ronaldo_jeremiah <[email protected]>
wrote:
> On Jun 22, 12:05 pm, Andre <[email protected]> wrote:
>
> > Cadel Evans 1.45  @
> > Alejandro Valverde 2.10  @
> > Denis Menchov 2.20  @
> > Damiano Cunego 3.25  @
> > Andy Schleck 3.75  @
> > Carlos Sastre 4.25  @
> > Stijn Devolder 6.75  @
> > Juan Mauricio Soler Hernández 8.50  @
>
> > This is reasonably accurate...
>
> The accuracy of these odds cannot be assessed.  You mean it looks good
> to you.





Dumbass -


They set odds based upon how they think people will bet. It doesn't
necessarily have anything to do with how the oddsmakers think the
riders will actually perform.

They want an even distribution of betting dollars relative to the odds
so that they make money no matter who wins.


thanks,

K. Gringioni.

 

[Keith]

On Sun, 22 Jun 2008 17:37:34 -0700, "Mike Jacoubowsky"
<[email protected]> wrote:

>> This is reasonably accurate...except I don't think Cunego and Sastre
>> will place that high. And I would replace A. Schleck with Kirchen. And
>> move Valverde ahead of Evans the wheel sucker.
>
>No, I think they have the Evans/Valverde thing correct. Evans has a very
>cool head on his shoulders, and he'll do what needs to be done. Valverde is
>far more likely to overdo it and blow up. Give Valverde a year or two. For
>the time being, Evans is the "safe" bet, and this is a betting line, after
>all.

Based on the Dauphiné, Valverde has either made big ITT progress or
he's in excellent shape, he's a better climber than Evans too.

That Kreunzinger guy who just won the TDS is pretty impressive too,
might be a big surprise if he can last in the race.

 

[Andre]

On Jun 22, 1:59 pm, ronaldo_jeremiah <[email protected]>
wrote:
> On Jun 22, 12:05 pm, Andre <[email protected]> wrote:
>
> > Cadel Evans 1.45  @
> > Alejandro Valverde 2.10  @
> > Denis Menchov 2.20  @
> > Damiano Cunego 3.25  @
> > Andy Schleck 3.75  @
> > Carlos Sastre 4.25  @
> > Stijn Devolder 6.75  @
> > Juan Mauricio Soler Hernández 8.50  @
>
> > This is reasonably accurate...
>
> The accuracy of these odds cannot be assessed.  You mean it looks good
> to you.
>
> > except I don't think Cunego and Sastre
> > will place that high.
>
> These are win odds, so it doesn't really have that much to do with how
> high a guy will place.  Perhaps the person who set these odds thinks
> Cunego is a good prospect to win, but will DNF otherwise.  the odds
> don't have to reflect consistency.
>
> > And I would replace A. Schleck with Kirchen.
>
> Not after Saturday, you shouldn't.
>
> > And
> > move Valverde ahead of Evans the wheel sucker.
>
> Wheelsucking can win races, if you suck the right wheels.
>
> -rj

Actually these were top ten odds.

 

[ronaldo_jeremiah]

On Jun 22, 7:48 pm, Kurgan Gringioni <[email protected]> wrote:
> On Jun 22, 10:59 am, ronaldo_jeremiah <[email protected]>
> wrote:
>
> > On Jun 22, 12:05 pm, Andre <[email protected]> wrote:
>
> > > Cadel Evans 1.45  @
> > > Alejandro Valverde 2.10  @
> > > Denis Menchov 2.20  @
> > > Damiano Cunego 3.25  @
> > > Andy Schleck 3.75  @
> > > Carlos Sastre 4.25  @
> > > Stijn Devolder 6.75  @
> > > Juan Mauricio Soler Hernández 8.50  @
>
> > > This is reasonably accurate...
>
> > The accuracy of these odds cannot be assessed.  You mean it looks good
> > to you.
>
> Dumbass -
>
> They set odds based upon how they think people will bet. It doesn't
> necessarily have anything to do with how the oddsmakers think the
> riders will actually perform.
>
> They want an even distribution of betting dollars relative to the odds
> so that they make money no matter who wins.
>
> thanks,
>
> K. Gringioni.


Dumbass -

I know that. (Still, it's a good point.)

Presumably, the bettors' mental models of who should win are based in
reality; therefore, the betting lines based on how people would bet
should approximate the odds one would create if one was simply
intending to model reality.

So, my point is still the same - to say the odds "look accurate" is
technically imprecise. One can only compare them to one's own mental
model of the odds, because the actual probabilities are unknown and,
in this case, unknowable.

-rj

 

[ronaldo_jeremiah]

On Jun 22, 8:27 pm, Andre <[email protected]> wrote:

> Actually these were top ten odds.- Hide quoted text -
>

Andre -

No way those are top ten odds. They look like win odds. Besides,
what bookmakers offer top ten odds? (That's not to say they couldn't,
just that it would be unusual.)

What is your source for these?

-rj

 

[Fred Fredburger]

ronaldo_jeremiah wrote:
> On Jun 22, 7:48 pm, Kurgan Gringioni <[email protected]> wrote:
>> On Jun 22, 10:59 am, ronaldo_jeremiah <[email protected]>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> On Jun 22, 12:05 pm, Andre <[email protected]> wrote:
>>>> Cadel Evans 1.45 @
>>>> Alejandro Valverde 2.10 @
>>>> Denis Menchov 2.20 @
>>>> Damiano Cunego 3.25 @
>>>> Andy Schleck 3.75 @
>>>> Carlos Sastre 4.25 @
>>>> Stijn Devolder 6.75 @
>>>> Juan Mauricio Soler Hernández 8.50 @
>>>> This is reasonably accurate...
>>> The accuracy of these odds cannot be assessed. You mean it looks good
>>> to you.
>> Dumbass -
>>
>> They set odds based upon how they think people will bet. It doesn't
>> necessarily have anything to do with how the oddsmakers think the
>> riders will actually perform.
>>
>> They want an even distribution of betting dollars relative to the odds
>> so that they make money no matter who wins.
>>
>> thanks,
>>
>> K. Gringioni.
>
>
> Dumbass -
>
> I know that. (Still, it's a good point.)
>
> Presumably, the bettors' mental models of who should win are based in
> reality; therefore, the betting lines based on how people would bet
> should approximate the odds one would create if one was simply
> intending to model reality.

You are assuming a well informed, dispassionate betting public.

That is not a good assumption. People bet for many reasons, some of them
ignorant and emotional. Name recognition plays into these odds at least
as much the likelihood of winning.

 

[Kurgan Gringioni]

On Jun 22, 8:18 pm, Fred Fredburger
<[email protected]> wrote:

>
> You are assuming a well informed, dispassionate betting public.
>
> That is not a good assumption. People bet for many reasons, some of them
> ignorant and emotional. Name recognition plays into these odds at least
> as much the likelihood of winning.




Dumbass -


I agree.

Anecdote: a friend of mine actually makes money at gambling, most of
it on college football. He'll make value bets vs. the teams that have
the most passionate, most numerous fans (pre-2007 Notre Dame for
instance), waiting till they go against a quality unknown opponent
with a small fanbase and Notre Dame will get something like 5
touchdowns in the spread. The reason he's able to beat the bookies'
take over time is self-evident.

He's not taking money from the bookies though. The bookies just want
an equal amount of money on both sides of any spread. He's taking it
from the overly rabid fans of the big school.


thanks,

K. Gringioni.

 

[Andre]

On Jun 22, 9:48 pm, ronaldo_jeremiah <[email protected]>
wrote:
> On Jun 22, 8:27 pm, Andre <[email protected]> wrote:
>
> > Actually these were top ten odds.- Hide quoted text -
>
> Andre -
>
> No way those are top ten odds.  They look like win odds.  Besides,
> what bookmakers offer top ten odds?  (That's not to say they couldn't,
> just that it would be unusual.)
>
> What is your source for these?
>
> -rj

http://www.betbrain.com/oddsOvervie...ing_Rider__Yellow_Jersey_/tn/102751737/site/0

Of course Rogers is out.

 

[Ted van de Weteringe]

Andre schreef:
>> No way those are top ten odds. They look like win odds. Besides,
>> what bookmakers offer top ten odds? (That's not to say they couldn't,
>> just that it would be unusual.)
>>
>> What is your source for these?
>
> http://www.betbrain.com/oddsOvervie...ing_Rider__Yellow_Jersey_/tn/102751737/site/0

If you click on the TopX link, you'll those are podium odds.

 

[Donald Munro]

Mike Jacoubowsky wrote:
> No, I think they have the Evans/Valverde thing correct. Evans has a very
> cool head on his shoulders, and he'll do what needs to be done. Valverde
> is far more likely to overdo it and blow up. Give Valverde a year or two.
> For the time being, Evans is the "safe" bet, and this is a betting line,
> after all.

A few weeks ago I would have said Valverde can't TT. I seem to
recall "Who would have thought x could TT like that" was a rbr
code.

 

[Donald Munro]

Ted van de Weteringe wrote:
> If you click on the TopX link, you'll those are podium odds.

Can you get podium girl odds like whats the chances of the
podium at a particular stage tapping a stage winner.

 

[ronaldo_jeremiah]

On Jun 22, 10:36 pm, Kurgan Gringioni <[email protected]> wrote:
> On Jun 22, 8:18 pm, Fred Fredburger
>
> <[email protected]> wrote:
>
> > You are assuming a well informed, dispassionate betting public.
>
> > That is not a good assumption. People bet for many reasons, some of them
> > ignorant and emotional. Name recognition plays into these odds at least
> > as much the likelihood of winning.
>
> Dumbass -
>
> I agree.
>
> Anecdote: a friend of mine actually makes money at gambling, most of
> it on college football. He'll make value bets vs. the teams that have
> the most passionate, most numerous fans (pre-2007 Notre Dame for
> instance), waiting till they go against a quality unknown opponent
> with a small fanbase and Notre Dame will get something like 5
> touchdowns in the spread. The reason he's able to beat the bookies'
> take over time is self-evident.
>
> He's not taking money from the bookies though. The bookies just want
> an equal amount of money on both sides of any spread. He's taking it
> from the overly rabid fans of the big school.
>
> thanks,
>
> K. Gringioni.


You guys are dumbasses, and are just making my point. If the odds are
off, someone with knowledge of that fact will come along and exploit
it, and the odds will have to be adjusted. Given sufficient time and
bettors, the odds should become a good model of 'reality,' even if
they aren't that in the first place. But, they probably will be that
in the first place, because the bookies who set the original odds have
good information and are in the business of making good odds. If they
couldn't do that, they'd be out of business before very long, since
they're competing with other bookies who are attempting to do the
exact same thing. Ergo, the odds offered by bookies will tend to be a
good model of the actual probabilities.

Of course, I'm a bigger dumbass than either of you for taking the time
to correct the original poster's message to make a finer point about
his personal assessment of the odds on offer, when we all probably
knew what he meant in the first place.

-rj

 

[ronaldo_jeremiah]

On Jun 23, 3:58 am, Ted van de Weteringe
<[email protected]> wrote:
> Andre schreef:
>
> >> No way those are top ten odds.  They look like win odds.  Besides,
> >> what bookmakers offer top ten odds?  (That's not to say they couldn't,
> >> just that it would be unusual.)
>
> >> What is your source for these?
>
> >http://www.betbrain.com/oddsOverview/Cycling_France_Tour_de_France_20...
>
> If you click on the TopX link, you'll those are podium odds.

That makes sense.

-rj

 

[Fred Fredburger]

ronaldo_jeremiah wrote:
> On Jun 22, 10:36 pm, Kurgan Gringioni <[email protected]> wrote:
>> On Jun 22, 8:18 pm, Fred Fredburger
>>
>> <[email protected]> wrote:
>>
>>> You are assuming a well informed, dispassionate betting public.
>>> That is not a good assumption. People bet for many reasons, some of them
>>> ignorant and emotional. Name recognition plays into these odds at least
>>> as much the likelihood of winning.
>> Dumbass -
>>
>> I agree.
>>
>> Anecdote: a friend of mine actually makes money at gambling, most of
>> it on college football. He'll make value bets vs. the teams that have
>> the most passionate, most numerous fans (pre-2007 Notre Dame for
>> instance), waiting till they go against a quality unknown opponent
>> with a small fanbase and Notre Dame will get something like 5
>> touchdowns in the spread. The reason he's able to beat the bookies'
>> take over time is self-evident.
>>
>> He's not taking money from the bookies though. The bookies just want
>> an equal amount of money on both sides of any spread. He's taking it
>> from the overly rabid fans of the big school.
>>
>> thanks,
>>
>> K. Gringioni.
>
>
> You guys are dumbasses, and are just making my point. If the odds are
> off, someone with knowledge of that fact will come along and exploit
> it, and the odds will have to be adjusted. Given sufficient time and
> bettors, the odds should become a good model of 'reality,' even if
> they aren't that in the first place. But, they probably will be that
> in the first place, because the bookies who set the original odds have
> good information and are in the business of making good odds. If they
> couldn't do that, they'd be out of business before very long, since
> they're competing with other bookies who are attempting to do the
> exact same thing. Ergo, the odds offered by bookies will tend to be a
> good model of the actual probabilities.

Apply that reasoning to Kurgan's ND example. Explain why ND is favored
over the higher quality opponent with the small fanbase.

Bookies aren't interested in "actual probabilities", only in how bettors
perceive them.

These are not the same things. Your mistake is in confusing mass
perception with reality. It is not true that enough people believing ND
will win makes it so. Straightening the perception/reality difference
out for you is a bigger job than I feel up to at the moment.

 

[Keith]

On Mon, 23 Jun 2008 11:11:00 +0200, Donald Munro
<[email protected]> wrote:

>Mike Jacoubowsky wrote:
>> No, I think they have the Evans/Valverde thing correct. Evans has a very
>> cool head on his shoulders, and he'll do what needs to be done. Valverde
>> is far more likely to overdo it and blow up. Give Valverde a year or two.
>> For the time being, Evans is the "safe" bet, and this is a betting line,
>> after all.
>
>A few weeks ago I would have said Valverde can't TT. I seem to
>recall "Who would have thought x could TT like that" was a rbr
>code.

Actually that was my topic "Contador can ITT"...well there you go,
Valverde and Contador the two guys who would be out of a job if they
raced in Germany or Italy courtesy of Fuentes...

 

[[email protected]]

> That Kreunzinger guy who just won the TDS is pretty impressive too,
> might be a big surprise if he can last in the race.


Appears surprised by his TdS form and is only planning on doing half
the Tour before pulling out. But one would assume if he is high in
the GC he won't pack up early.

 

[Kurgan Gringioni]

On Jun 23, 7:45 am, Fred Fredburger
<[email protected]> wrote:
> ronaldo_jeremiah wrote:
> > On Jun 22, 10:36 pm, Kurgan Gringioni <[email protected]> wrote:
> >> On Jun 22, 8:18 pm, Fred Fredburger
>
> >> <[email protected]> wrote:
>
> >>> You are assuming a well informed, dispassionate betting public.
> >>> That is not a good assumption. People bet for many reasons, some of them
> >>> ignorant and emotional. Name recognition plays into these odds at least
> >>> as much the likelihood of winning.
> >> Dumbass -
>
> >> I agree.
>
> >> Anecdote: a friend of mine actually makes money at gambling, most of
> >> it on college football. He'll make value bets vs. the teams that have
> >> the most passionate, most numerous fans (pre-2007 Notre Dame for
> >> instance), waiting till they go against a quality unknown opponent
> >> with a small fanbase and Notre Dame will get something like 5
> >> touchdowns in the spread. The reason he's able to beat the bookies'
> >> take over time is self-evident.
>
> >> He's not taking money from the bookies though. The bookies just want
> >> an equal amount of money on both sides of any spread. He's taking it
> >> from the overly rabid fans of the big school.
>
> >> thanks,
>
> >> K. Gringioni.
>
> > You guys are dumbasses, and are just making my point.  If the odds are
> > off, someone with knowledge of that fact will come along and exploit
> > it, and the odds will have to be adjusted.  Given sufficient time and
> > bettors, the odds should become a good model of 'reality,' even if
> > they aren't that in the first place.  But, they probably will be that
> > in the first place, because the bookies who set the original odds have
> > good information and are in the business of making good odds.  If they
> > couldn't do that, they'd be out of business before very long, since
> > they're competing with other bookies who are attempting to do the
> > exact same thing.  Ergo, the odds offered by bookies will tend to be a
> > good model of the actual probabilities.
>
> Apply that reasoning to Kurgan's ND example. Explain why ND is favored
> over the higher quality opponent with the small fanbase.
>
> Bookies aren't interested in "actual probabilities", only in how bettors
> perceive them.
>
> These are not the same things. Your mistake is in confusing mass
> perception with reality. It is not true that enough people believing ND
> will win makes it so. Straightening the perception/reality difference
> out for you is a bigger job than I feel up to at the moment.



Dumbass -


Thanks for taking the time to do even that. I didn't feel like
pointing out what he missed.


K. Gringioni.