Only 40 years of gas left!

Discussion in 'The Bike Cafe' started by JTE83, May 9, 2006.

  1. JTE83

    JTE83 Member

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2004
    Messages:
    1,390
    Likes Received:
    9
    My brother once worked for Citgo Oil refinery as a Process Engineer. He got tired of the job and quit to start his own computer / server sales business. Anyway, he said to me that there was only about 40 years of crude oil in the ground left for us. So that means we should get conservative now and not waste much gas any more. More cars should be hybrid.

    So when the gas runs out, how well off will you be?

    Me - I live in the city of Chicago in Wicker Park, and everything I need is a bike distance away (but not most of my jobs). So I can survive pretty well without a car. If fact, I save a few dollars by biking to most places instead of using my car or minivan. Saved $57 in gas last year and $16 so far this year.

    I think when crude oil runs out we might be using ethanol for airplanes? It would be terrible I we couldn't fly in the future. And maybe the future might be full of mopeds going to work?
     
    Tags:


  2. mopar

    mopar New Member

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2006
    Messages:
    105
    Likes Received:
    0
    Hybrids are for losers. If a car company builds a 12-mile-per-gallon car, it's okay. Cars are meant to drive, even if you are going to your dreaded job. So have fun with your car. It won't take scientists (or someone else for that matter) 40 years to figure out another fuel substance. Don't get worked up about it.
     
  3. JTE83

    JTE83 Member

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2004
    Messages:
    1,390
    Likes Received:
    9
    There are movie stars who drive hybrids, and they clearly aren't losers. A lot of middle class people are the ones (i guess) that have the money to buy hybrids. More money left for their mortgage then.
     
  4. mtbnewbie

    mtbnewbie New Member

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2005
    Messages:
    92
    Likes Received:
    0
    Another thing to concider in all of this is that the crude oil is used to manufacture far more than just the fuels to run our machines.
    A lot of the plastics, rubbers, lubricants etc. that we use for all sorts of things including our bikes comes in part from that very same crude oil. :eek:

    All the more reason to try and conserve what we can.
     
  5. free_rideman

    free_rideman New Member

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2006
    Messages:
    254
    Likes Received:
    0
    great point! Plus cars that have some type of electrical drive, it being hydrogen, battery cell, > in the future will actually be faster and more fun to drive.

    But we still need that oil for plastics and some rubbers. So being conservative now is always a good idea.
     
  6. JTE83

    JTE83 Member

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2004
    Messages:
    1,390
    Likes Received:
    9
    Actually - our food is cheap and well varied with imports because of realitively cheap oil. If gas gets too expensive in the future our food will be expensive too and we wouldn't be able to afford imported foods that much. I already noticed the increase in imported foods at the ethnic places I shop at.

    Someone also posted this nice link in another forum that I posted this same thread. http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

    I look to the future with some dread about our energy. Do we have a lot of natural gas and coal left?
     
  7. mopar

    mopar New Member

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2006
    Messages:
    105
    Likes Received:
    0
    I told you, it's not going to take 40 years to find another source of fuel. What does this have to do with food prices?
     
  8. JTE83

    JTE83 Member

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2004
    Messages:
    1,390
    Likes Received:
    9
    All food and goods are mostly transported by trucks, and these run on "oil." Delivery costs affect the final price we pay at the supermarket.

    There's solar, geothermal, nuclear, wind, coal, natural gas, biofuels, and what else that we can rely on?

    I'd sure drive a 12 mpg car if it was a Ferrari or Lamborghini and I had the money to burn. But I'm not rich and life is gonna get more expensive in the future. I'm middle class.
     
  9. free_rideman

    free_rideman New Member

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2006
    Messages:
    254
    Likes Received:
    0
    :confused: :confused: :confused:

    what classes? classes don't matter!

    If people don't start thinking we will all be f**ked! :rolleyes:

    everything runs on oil......
     
  10. mopar

    mopar New Member

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2006
    Messages:
    105
    Likes Received:
    0
    Or a Porsche. How do you know life will get more expensive in the future when it hasn't happened yet. Are you phscycotic?
     
  11. alienator

    alienator Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2004
    Messages:
    12,596
    Likes Received:
    160
    Ignore Mopar. He's practicing to be a troll and isn't really equipped with critical thinking skills.

    Not too long ago (I can't remember how long), the Saudi's and some of the other OPEC nations did some number crunching and found that their wells would dry up in about 100 years. This fits fairly well with the Citgo estimate, especially when you consider population growth as well as the accelerating demand for oil, especially by the Chinese.

    What's telling is that it was only a little over 100 year ago that we found the wonders of crude oil. It's kind of ironic that we'll be out of it in less time than that.

    As others have mentioned, not having gas for cars is not the real problem with oil shortage. The problem comes when we can't make plastics, clothing, gore tex for tendon replacement, and so on.

    Since Mopar was kind enough to play the stooge, we should entertain his queer little notion that science will save the day.....with time to spare. First making the technological transition from oil to other energy forms will take years, probably on the order of 30 years, at least. Right now, little money is being spent on the science needed (Thanks, GW, Congress, Oil Lobbies....). In fact all research funding in the US is getting worse not better. That can't be a good sign.

    Second, it's going to take even longer for the cultural change needed to prolong the oil supply until a sustainable energy resource is found, developed, and made marketable. Gas prices are already over $3/gallon, here, yet do you see the public clamoring for new energy sources. Nope. Do you see the President or Congress pushing for new energy sources? Nope. Sure the President talks a smooth line when he talks about hydrogen fuel cells, but that is many years away from being a viable solution. Producing hydrogen in the quantities necessary to power a nation--even just for transportation--is probably 40-50 years away. Also you won't get the average idiot American driver--you know, the one who needs the hemi, the Huge Gas Hog Utility Vehicle--to suddenly want something that doesn't make a real loud noise outta the exhaust pipe(s).

    Third, emerging nations with their growing energy needs but not the money to fund research or pay for expensive energy, well, these nations will take even longer to make the transition. So their use of oil will continue to grow.

    Fourth, given the growing stature of oil as a political weapon, I don't think anyone should count on a safe supply of oil always being available. It doesn't take an idiot to realize that setting off a nuclear weapon or two in some lush oil field will render that oil field unuseable. Also, it doesn't take an idiot (well, Mopar might not get it) to realize that as the oil reserves start diminishing, conflicts to grab oil will only increase in number and intensity. So there's a damned good chance that a lot of people might die over this oil thing. Given the diplomatic ineptitude demonstrated by our figureheads, we really run the risk of having to do battle with someone over oil.

    It's a real problem, and the people that are supposed to be leading are moving at a glacial pace.
     
  12. bikeguy

    bikeguy New Member

    Joined:
    May 31, 2004
    Messages:
    655
    Likes Received:
    1
    I pretty much agree with everything you said. Yes, Bush, etc. aren't doing anything to make a change to other fuel sources. I disagree about the hydrogen thing, it's too difficult to handle (remember the shuttle explosion, and that was with the "best and brightest" supposed to be monitoring constantly for possible problems) and the infrastructure to use it would cost way too much to set up, not to mention needing a complete redesign of all vehicles that use it. The only real alternative is nuclear power and solar power. There's a whole lot of deserts out there that receive a lot of watts/sq meter and it's going unused. Of conventional fuels, I suppose natural gas power plants could provide power for a bit more time.

    I have a strong suspicion the oil peak has just passed. From now on, oil will become scarcer and more expensive, so I agree that there will be increasing conflict over the remaining oil.

    Worst of all, western culture has promoted and cultivated a culture of profligate consumption that is unsustainable and I'm not just talking about oil. (perhaps, if there fewer of us). Now china and india among others want to join in. I wonder how crazy it's going to get when people realise they can't afford to drive the car 5 blocks to the grocery store, or that the price of that plastic comb just quadrupled. A new world order indeed.

    -Bikeguy
     
  13. Chance3290

    Chance3290 New Member

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2004
    Messages:
    621
    Likes Received:
    0
    I was in complete agreement with you until you said this. These the same movie stars that fly a private jet from NY to LA to attend a movie premiere, then chastise the average joe for wasting fuel in an SUV and not plucking down $20,000+ for a hybrid.
    Let's work on the fuel problem because its the right thing to do, not because some multi-millionaire (who probably owns stock in the hybrid company) tells us to do it.
    If they sound really sincere when they talk about the fuel problem, remember, they're actors.
     
  14. alienator

    alienator Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2004
    Messages:
    12,596
    Likes Received:
    160
    Actually liquid hydrogen isn't difficult to deal with and is pretty darned safe for use in cars. Remember, Challenger was lost because a bad seal on a solid rocket booster allowed exhaust to burn through the main fuel tank (where there was already mechanical damage from a support structure.). The problem w/ hydrogen is mass production. I'm all for it, but it will take a lot of time to setup the infrastructure, not to mention develop an efficient way of producing hydrogen. Right now, most hydrogen production is done in way that ain't so clean.

    Fuel cells are a good option to consider, but other options are needed too. There is an auto manufacturer (US) that has a somewhat (used to be anyway) secret facility where they conducted their fuel cell research. Said facility is stacked to the ceilings with thousands of fuel cells. I know this because that maker was consulted for a defense project I was involved in at some defense contractor. The auto manufacturer had so many cells, they wanted to just give us fuel cells for our project.
     
  15. JTE83

    JTE83 Member

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2004
    Messages:
    1,390
    Likes Received:
    9
    I just had a thought that after oil runs out we can rely on the horse and carriage for transportation. Like don't horses feed off of grass? But not everyone can have a horse.

    And off course us bikers wouldn't mind the biking for transportation.

    But we would still have energy problems. I worry about how the world will be when I retire.
     
  16. RickF

    RickF New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2005
    Messages:
    646
    Likes Received:
    0
    Now that is really coming full circle. When the internal combustion engine was invented and Henry Ford found a way to get the automobile into the hands of the masses, the automobile was viewed as a means of ending pollution. As cities were growing, they ran out of places to dispose of all of the horse (and mule) manure.

    I agree that alternative energy sources are needed, and there is not one solution that will replace all uses of oil. Vegetible oils are also part of the solution. The Germans invented the Diesel engine to run on vegetible oil when they lost control of North Africa and the Middle East during World War II. The Diesel engine will still run on vegetible oil, but so far, petroleum based oil is less expensive. That is changing rapidly.
     
  17. Madd Dogg

    Madd Dogg New Member

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2005
    Messages:
    19
    Likes Received:
    0
    I had Mexican food for lunch and I tell you there is WAY more than 40 years of gas left!
     
  18. azdroptop

    azdroptop New Member

    Joined:
    May 25, 2005
    Messages:
    872
    Likes Received:
    0
    Maybe 40 years on hand, but there is a LOT more oil in the ground than enviro types will have us believe. Add hardly any oil left to the same category as Global warming is human caused. Completely bogus!
     
  19. missionaryman

    missionaryman New Member

    Joined:
    Mar 3, 2006
    Messages:
    22
    Likes Received:
    0
    it's quite possible that crude oil is not running out at all:

    http://www.answersingenesis.org/creation/v27/i3/focus.asp

    second last article

    so relax and don't worry about it, if it were running out I'm sure that governments worldwide would stop sanctioning battery research as heavily as they are said to be doing.
     
  20. Treky

    Treky New Member

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2003
    Messages:
    73
    Likes Received:
    0
    Well you should say 40 years of oil left at around current prices. We will never run out of crude oil because as the supplies divindle the price will go higher so much so most people will not be able to afford it anymore. So the consumption will fall. In the mean time other forms of oil sources, low grade oil (i.e non-liquid form such as the kind found in Canada) will become more and more profitible and prolong the use of fossil fuels. But eventually the priviliged few will be able to take out their vintage automobile for a spin unless they retrofit it to run on pepsi or banana skins or whatever.
     
Loading...
Loading...