Only six hours to go.

Discussion in 'UK and Europe' started by Simon Mason, Mar 6, 2004.

  1. Simon Mason

    Simon Mason Guest

    The '04 Giant OCR1 which I tried to buy on e-bay last week
    hit a snag with the paypal transfer thing. Apparently you
    have to wait until your credit card bill arrives to get a 4
    figure code to activate the thing, which came too late for
    the end date. I have put in another bid for a different
    road bike which ends at 2345 tonight and I'm still the
    highest bidder.

    Thing is, I've got to be up at 0515 tomorrow, so I won't be
    able to put in any late bids as I'll be in bed. So I won't
    know if it's mine until I log on at work in the morning.
    Fingers crossed :)

    --
    Simon Mason Anlaby East Yorkshire. 53°44'N 0°26'W
    http://www.simonmason.karoo.net
     
    Tags:


  2. Tony Raven

    Tony Raven Guest

    Simon Mason wrote:
    > The '04 Giant OCR1 which I tried to buy on e-bay last week
    > hit a snag with the paypal transfer thing. Apparently you
    > have to wait until your credit card bill arrives to get a
    > 4 figure code to activate the thing, which came too late
    > for the end date. I have put in another bid for a
    > different road bike which ends at 2345 tonight and I'm
    > still the highest bidder.
    >
    > Thing is, I've got to be up at 0515 tomorrow, so I won't
    > be able to put in any late bids as I'll be in bed. So I
    > won't know if it's mine until I log on at work in the
    > morning. Fingers crossed :)

    Can you not get someone to bid for you and set them your
    limit? My experience is that most of the bidding happens in
    the last few minutes.

    Tony
     
  3. Simon Mason wrote:

    > The '04 Giant OCR1 which I tried to buy on e-bay last week
    > hit a snag with the paypal transfer thing. Apparently you
    > have to wait until your credit card bill arrives to get a
    > 4 figure code to activate the thing, which came too late
    > for the end date. I have put in another bid for a
    > different road bike which ends at 2345 tonight and I'm
    > still the highest bidder.
    >
    > Thing is, I've got to be up at 0515 tomorrow, so I won't
    > be able to put in any late bids as I'll be in bed. So I
    > won't know if it's mine until I log on at work in the
    > morning. Fingers crossed :)

    Download Auction Sentry (free trial)
     
  4. Claire

    Claire Guest

    "Simon Mason" <[email protected]> writes:
    >The '04 Giant OCR1 which I tried to buy on e-bay last week
    >hit a snag with the paypal transfer thing. Apparently you
    >have to wait until your credit card bill arrives to get a 4
    >figure code to activate the thing, which came too late for
    >the end date. I have put in another bid for a different
    >road bike which ends at 2345 tonight and I'm still the
    >highest bidder.
    >
    >Thing is, I've got to be up at 0515 tomorrow, so I won't be
    >able to put in any late bids as I'll be in bed. So I won't
    >know if it's mine until I log on at work in the morning.
    >Fingers crossed :)

    Too late for this one, but for the future try the free
    sniper at www.vrane.com which will submit a last minute bid
    (within 20 seconds of close of auction) for you. You can't
    utterly depend on it, but as a failsafe extra bid for things
    you really want, or for things you'd quite like for that
    price but don't want to hang around for, it helps against
    those people who carefully bid you up to just past your
    limit at the end of the auction (so annoying!).

    Claire
    --
    Still prettiest by far.
     
  5. Tony Raven wrote:

    > My experience is that most of the bidding happens in the
    > last few minutes.

    Everybody's probably using the same bid-sniping software.

    --
    Keith Willoughby http://flat222.org/keith/ "I dwelt alone in
    a world of moan And my soul was a stagnant tide"
     
  6. Claire

    Claire Guest

    Keith Willoughby <[email protected]> writes:
    >Tony Raven wrote:
    >
    >> My experience is that most of the bidding happens in the
    >> last few minutes.
    >
    >Everybody's probably using the same bid-sniping software.

    Nah. That's in the last few seconds *&)

    I do bid in-person in the last few minutes for anything I'm
    particularly interested in.

    Claire
    --
    Still prettiest by far.
     
  7. Dave Kahn

    Dave Kahn Guest

    On Sat, 6 Mar 2004 17:18:41 -0000, "Simon Mason"
    <[email protected]> wrote:

    >The '04 Giant OCR1 which I tried to buy on e-bay last week
    >hit a snag with the paypal transfer thing. Apparently you
    >have to wait until your credit card bill arrives to get a 4
    >figure code to activate the thing, which came too late for
    >the end date. I have put in another bid for a different
    >road bike which ends at 2345 tonight and I'm still the
    >highest bidder.
    >
    >Thing is, I've got to be up at 0515 tomorrow, so I won't be
    >able to put in any late bids as I'll be in bed. So I won't
    >know if it's mine until I log on at work in the morning.
    >Fingers crossed :)

    Simon, you need to find out about sniping software. Have a
    look at http://www.auction-sentry.com for example. Often the
    serious bidding on an eBay item doesn't start until the last
    minute or two. This software will bid for you in the last
    few seconds of the auction while you're fast asleep in bed
    or out for a bike ride. It'll also tell you if you've won
    without your having to log back into eBay.

    Incidentally is this the ex-display Fondriest? If so there's
    a neutral feedback against the seller from "assosman" who
    bought a frame and claims it was not as described. This
    unfortunately came in after you placed your bid. Good luck
    in any case.

    --
    Dave...

    Get a bicycle. You will not regret it. If you live. -
    Mark Twain
     
  8. Anonymous

    Anonymous Guest

    Claire posted ...

    > "Simon Mason" <[email protected]> writes:
    >> The '04 Giant OCR1 which I tried to buy on e-bay last
    >> week hit a snag with the paypal transfer thing.
    >> Apparently you have to wait until your credit card bill
    >> arrives to get a 4 figure code to activate the thing,
    >> which came too late for the end date. I have put in
    >> another bid for a different road bike which ends at 2345
    >> tonight and I'm still the highest bidder.
    >>
    >> Thing is, I've got to be up at 0515 tomorrow, so I won't
    >> be able to put in any late bids as I'll be in bed. So I
    >> won't know if it's mine until I log on at work in the
    >> morning. Fingers crossed :)
    >
    > Too late for this one, but for the future try the free
    > sniper at www.vrane.com which will submit a last minute
    > bid (within 20 seconds of close of auction) for you. You
    > can't utterly depend on it, but as a failsafe extra bid
    > for things you really want, or for things you'd quite like
    > for that price but don't want to hang around for, it helps
    > against those people who carefully bid you up to just past
    > your limit at the end of the auction (so annoying!).

    I disagree with 'sniping' software. I prefer to bid to my
    limit and that's
    it.

    I do tend to make my limit _not_ a round figure though ..
    say £101.53 .. and I've won a few things for that extra
    £1.53 .. ;) I reckon it's the extra £0.03 that _really_
    clinches it .. ;)

    --
    Paul

    (8(|) Homer rocks .. ;)
     
  9. James Annan

    James Annan Guest

    Simon Mason wrote:

    > Thing is, I've got to be up at 0515 tomorrow, so I won't
    > be able to put in any late bids as I'll be in bed. So I
    > won't know if it's mine until I log on at work in the
    > morning. Fingers crossed :)

    I've always been puzzled by the need many people apparently
    feel to bid at the last minute. That brings with it the
    possibililty that your bid just fails to be made in time
    and I do not see how it can bring any advantages, other
    than the hope that one of the competitors will be stupid
    enough to do the same.

    James
     
  10. Call Me Bob

    Call Me Bob Guest

    On Sun, 07 Mar 2004 07:37:12 +0900, James Annan
    <[email protected]> wrote:

    >I've always been puzzled by the need many people apparently
    >feel to bid at the last minute. That brings with it the
    >possibililty that your bid just fails to be made in time
    >and I do not see how it can bring any advantages, other
    >than the hope that one of the competitors will be stupid
    >enough to do the same.

    The advantages are significant. You will win more auctions,
    and importantly, at lower prices by bidding at the very end.

    The "just bid the most you are prepared to pay and leave it
    alone" method is akin to leaving your hand face up on the
    table when playing poker. Everyone else interested in the
    item can see exactly what you are holding and you have
    nowhere else to go.

    There's oodles of crap for sale on ebay, and much of the
    good stuff is way overpriced, but, their are occasional
    gems. If you want to buy them at the best possible price
    you should aim to bid in the last few seconds of the
    auction. This isn't always going to be practical of course
    because we have lives to get on with, but then sniping
    software is the answer.

    Best tactics are to place one bid, of the most you would be
    willing to pay, and time it so it lands with about 10
    seconds to go. This is easy enough now with broadband
    connections, I've only ever missed one auction because I was
    a few seconds too late. Also essential (and blindingly
    obvious) is rounding up your bid. Don't go in at £30, use
    £30.23 or whatever.

    This method simply cuts right back on the opportunity other
    people have to knock you off the high bidder spot. Those
    interested parties sitting watching the auction at the end
    just have no time to react to your final bid.
    --

    "Bob"

    'The people have spoken, the bastards'

    Email address is spam trapped.
    To reply directly remove the beverage.
     
  11. Dave Kahn

    Dave Kahn Guest

    On Sun, 07 Mar 2004 07:37:12 +0900, James Annan
    <[email protected]> wrote:

    >Simon Mason wrote:
    >
    >> Thing is, I've got to be up at 0515 tomorrow, so I won't
    >> be able to put in any late bids as I'll be in bed. So I
    >> won't know if it's mine until I log on at work in the
    >> morning. Fingers crossed :)
    >
    >I've always been puzzled by the need many people apparently
    >feel to bid at the last minute. That brings with it the
    >possibililty that your bid just fails to be made in time
    >and I do not see how it can bring any advantages, other
    >than the hope that one of the competitors will be stupid
    >enough to do the same.

    If everybody bid rationally you would be correct. However,
    not everyone is as rational as you are.

    --
    Dave...

    Get a bicycle. You will not regret it. If you live. -
    Mark Twain
     
  12. Andymorris

    Andymorris Guest

    Claire wrote:
    >
    > I do bid in-person in the last few minutes for anything
    > I'm particularly interested in.
    >

    Why not just put in your maximum bid?

    Ebay will 'automatically' bid up to that for you.

    --
    Andy Morris

    AndyAtJinkasDotFreeserve.Co.UK

    Love this:
    Put an end to Outlook Express's messy quotes
    http://home.in.tum.de/~jain/software/oe-quotefix/
     
  13. Martinm

    Martinm Guest

    Dave Kahn <[email protected]> wrote in message news:<[email protected]>...
    > On Sat, 6 Mar 2004 17:18:41 -0000, "Simon Mason"
    > <[email protected]> wrote:
    >
    > >The '04 Giant OCR1 which I tried to buy on e-bay last
    > >week hit a snag with the paypal transfer thing.
    > >Apparently you have to wait until your credit card bill
    > >arrives to get a 4 figure code to activate the thing,
    > >which came too late for the end date. I have put in
    > >another bid for a different road bike which ends at 2345
    > >tonight and I'm still the highest bidder.
    > >
    > >Thing is, I've got to be up at 0515 tomorrow, so I won't
    > >be able to put in any late bids as I'll be in bed. So I
    > >won't know if it's mine until I log on at work in the
    > >morning. Fingers crossed :)
    >
    > Simon, you need to find out about sniping software. Have a
    > look at http://www.auction-sentry.com for example. Often
    > the serious bidding on an eBay item doesn't start until
    > the last minute or two. This software will bid for you in
    > the last few seconds of the auction while you're fast
    > asleep in bed or out for a bike ride. It'll also tell you
    > if you've won without your having to log back into eBay.
    >
    > Incidentally is this the ex-display Fondriest? If so
    > there's a neutral feedback against the seller from
    > "assosman" who bought a frame and claims it was not as
    > described. This unfortunately came in after you placed
    > your bid. Good luck in any case.

    I am an ebay newbie, having bid for one item and won it
    first time. I just set my limit at £5 above the current bid
    and went out on a ride. When I came back I had been outbid
    twice and ebay had automatically riased my bid; the other
    bidder gave up at 2.50 more than the original as he did not
    know what I would go up to. OK it was for a forkless frame
    so maybe limited appeal but ebay did exactly what I wanted
    it to do without extra software.
     
  14. Graeme

    Graeme Guest

    news:[email protected]:

    > I do tend to make my limit _not_ a round figure though ..
    > say œ101.53 .. and I've won a few things for that extra
    > œ1.53 .. ;) I reckon it's the extra œ0.03 that _really_
    > clinches it .. ;)

    That's how I got my last flat in Edinburgh a few years back.
    I stuck 127 pounds on to the end of the sum and won by 27
    pounds, so it's always worth doing.

    Graeme
     
  15. Pete Biggs

    Pete Biggs Guest

    AndyMorris wrote:
    > Claire wrote:
    >>
    >> I do bid in-person in the last few minutes for anything
    >> I'm particularly interested in.
    >
    > Why not just put in your maximum bid?
    >
    > Ebay will 'automatically' bid up to that for you.

    We had a debate about this a while ago. I now agree that
    it's often better to bid at the last minute to minimise the
    final price. You can get an edge over bidders who don't use
    proxy bidding properly. Others are effectively encouraged to
    outbid you otherwise. On the other hand, a high current
    price can be offputting - so placing an early "medium" bid,
    at least, serves some purpose.

    ~PB
     
  16. James Annan

    James Annan Guest

    Call me Bob wrote:
    > On Sun, 07 Mar 2004 07:37:12 +0900, James Annan
    > <[email protected]> wrote:
    >
    >
    >
    >>I've always been puzzled by the need many people
    >>apparently feel to bid at the last minute. That brings
    >>with it the possibililty that your bid just fails to be
    >>made in time and I do not see how it can bring any
    >>advantages, other than the hope that one of the
    >>competitors will be stupid enough to do the same.
    >
    >
    > The advantages are significant. You will win more
    > auctions, and importantly, at lower prices by bidding at
    > the very end.
    >
    > The "just bid the most you are prepared to pay and leave
    > it alone" method is akin to leaving your hand face up on
    > the table when playing poker. Everyone else interested in
    > the item can see exactly what you are holding and you have
    > nowhere else to go.

    No, they can only see the _current_ top bid, and they will
    only find out your limit by exceeding it. Assuming your
    bid really was your limit, once they have gone past it,
    you don't care. There's a possibility of you gaining by
    bidding late, but you can only achieve this gain at the
    expense of another late-bidder, and unless the other
    bidders are more stupid than you, it's just as likely that
    you will be the loser (losing in this case means seeing
    the product sold to someone else for a lower price than
    you were prepared to bid).

    James
     
  17. Tony Raven

    Tony Raven Guest

    Pete Biggs wrote:
    >
    > We had a debate about this a while ago. I now agree that
    > it's often better to bid at the last minute to minimise
    > the final price. You can get an edge over bidders who
    > don't use proxy bidding properly. Others are effectively
    > encouraged to outbid you otherwise. On the other hand, a
    > high current price can be offputting - so placing an early
    > "medium" bid, at least, serves some purpose.
    >

    Must be someone somewhere writing a PhD thesis on Game
    Theory and EBay bidding ;-)

    Tony
     
  18. James Annan

    James Annan Guest

    Tony Raven wrote:

    >
    > Must be someone somewhere writing a PhD thesis on Game
    > Theory and EBay bidding ;-)

    But the problem is too easy. The only interesting "win" is
    to buy a product at a price lower than some other bidder was
    wiling to pay (but did not bid), and the only interesting
    "loss" is to see a product sold to someone else at a price
    below what you were willing to pay. A sniping bidder can
    only "win" when another sniping bidders "loses", and an
    early bidder will never lose but can still win if another
    sniper doesn't get their bid in on time. The only possible
    penalty of being an early bidder is that it could reduce the
    probability of a win, but (since every win is matched to a
    loss) changing from an early to a sniping strategy means
    that the slightly greater chance of a win is matched by the
    chance of a loss.

    It's like playing on the stock market. There are those who
    claim they can "beat the market", but since it is a zero-sum
    game, half of them are wrong and are in fact making losses
    to match (exceed, taking account of dealing costs) the
    claimed gains.

    James
     
  19. Anonymous

    Anonymous Guest

    Tony Raven posted ...

    > Pete Biggs wrote:
    >>
    >> We had a debate about this a while ago. I now agree that
    >> it's often better to bid at the last minute to minimise
    >> the final price. You can get an edge over bidders who
    >> don't use proxy bidding properly. Others are effectively
    >> encouraged to outbid you otherwise. On the other hand, a
    >> high current price can be offputting - so placing an
    >> early "medium" bid, at least, serves some purpose.
    >>
    >
    > Must be someone somewhere writing a PhD thesis on Game
    > Theory and EBay bidding ;-)

    Wouldn't that be akin ti chaos theory .. at least where
    Ebay's concerned. ;)

    --
    Paul

    (8(|) Homer rocks .. ;)
     
  20. Call Me Bob

    Call Me Bob Guest

    On Sun, 07 Mar 2004 16:28:59 +0900, James Annan
    <[email protected]> wrote:

    >No, they can only see the _current_ top bid, and they will
    >only find out your limit by exceeding it. Assuming your
    >bid really was your limit, once they have gone past it,
    >you don't care. There's a possibility of you gaining by
    >bidding late, but you can only achieve this gain at the
    >expense of another late-bidder, and unless the other
    >bidders are more stupid than you, it's just as likely that
    >you will be the loser (losing in this case means seeing
    >the product sold to someone else for a lower price than
    >you were prepared to bid).

    If you can't see the benefit of sniping then it's not me
    who's the stupid one.

    Your logic here is badly flawed, it assumes everyone else
    bidding against you has got their head screwed on, but of
    course the truth is the world's full of halfwits.

    Sniping costs me nothing. I don't spend any longer placing
    my single bid than you do. It is as simple and
    straightforward as your method. It does not disadvantage me
    in any way.

    You've mentioned a couple of times the risks of missing out
    by being a fraction too late but this risk really is very
    small. Pay attention and there's no reason why you can't
    place a final bid within 20 seconds of auction end virtually
    everytime. Either personally if you happen to be at home or
    by using sniping software.

    So, I lose nothing by sniping but there are myriad
    circumstances in which I will benefit over your method.
    Consider one example:

    You're browsing ebay and spot a SuperWidget which is just
    what you've been after. It's worth 30 quid to you so you
    place your early maximum bid straight away, this leaves you
    in the high bidder position at, say, 10 pounds. You then
    leave the auction to its own devices for the final few days.
    What if there is only one other serious bidder for this
    SuperWidget, Fred, and he is prepared to pay 25 pounds for
    it? Along he comes, and places a bid of 12 quid, no, ebay
    tells him that's not enough, so he bumps it up to 15
    quid.... nope, still not enough and so he bids again. He
    keeps doing this until he reaches the £25 he's prepared to
    pay and finds it's not enough to dislodge you from the high
    bidder spot. He's now had enough and off he wanders.

    Auction end rolls around and you win the item for £26.

    Now consider the sniping method in the same auction:

    I see the SuperWidget when browsing and add it to my Ebay
    watch list. A few days later along comes Fred and finds the
    auction, he places his bid of £10 pounds which, as I
    haven't placed an offer yet, is enough to secure him high
    bidder spot. He's happy at that so off he toddles, planning
    on checking back to see how things are going. Auction end
    rolls around and Fred is still in the hot seat, but, with
    20 seconds to go my bid of £30.76 is placed. I take high
    bidder spot at a price of 11 quid and Fred, even if he's
    sitting at his pc watching, has bugger all time left to do
    anything about it.

    I win the item for £11.

    Granted, this example is over simplified, but I'm just
    trying to illustrate the point. Sniping will win you
    auctions, or save you money, in auctions where your bidding
    rivals do not use (or understand) the ebay proxy system.

    --

    "Bob"

    'The people have spoken, the bastards'

    Email address is spam trapped.
    To reply directly remove the beverage.
     
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