I just stumbled across something very intersting I never saw before:
"We frequently hear figures regarding how many watts the best riders can maintain for a 30 or 60 minute period. But how much power do they actually generate on Category 1 and HC climbs, especially those that come late in the race after about 4 hours or more of riding? And how much of a difference is there between the power level of a top rider going up the climbs that occur before the last climb of the day and a summit finish? For example, this Sunday, how much more power will the top GC riders put out on the climb to Tignes than on the preceding climb up the Montee D'Hautville?"
Jim
"To answer your question, let's take a look at the 6 mountain stages from last year's Tour and see what Floyd did as a reference. I've attached
a table that shows each categorized climb on stage 10,11,14,15,16, and 17. Since he was a team leader, who primarily rode with other team leaders, we'll just assume that we can generalize to other team leaders from his single data set.
Long story short, for the big climbs in the Alps and Pyrenees the average length is 12.3 ± 8.1 km at 6.2 ± 1.3% grade. For these climbs the average length is 32:36 ± 20:31 min:sec, completed at an average power output of 359 ± 38 watts or 5.2 ± 0.6 watts per kg.
Over each of these 6 stages, all had at least 3 climbs, 4 stages had 4 climbs, and 2 stages had a total of 5 climbs. So if we compare the metrics across these sequential climbs, here's what we get:
Average for First Climbs (n=6)
16.9 ± 13.7 km at 5.8 ± 1.4% grade, for 42:34 ± 32:02 min:sec, at 364 ± 40 watts or 5.3 ± 0.06 watts per kg.
Average for Second Climbs (n=6)
12.2 ± 6.3 km at 5.9 ± 1.3%, for 32:54 ± 20:06 min:sec, at 341 ± 41 watts or 4.9 ± 0.6 watts per kg.
Average for Third Climbs (n=6)
9.9 ± 2.7 km at 6.7 ± 1.1%, for 27:09 ± 7:12 min:sec, at 359 ± 40 watts or 5.2 ± 0.6 watts per kg.
Average for Fourth Climbs (n=4)
9.3 ± 6.4 km at 5.9 ± 1.4%, for 25:12 ± 20:19 min:sec, at 369 ± 42 watts or 5.4 ± 0.6 watts per kg.
Average for Firth Climbs (n=2)
12.4 ± 0.8 km at 6.9 ± 2.0%, for 32:56 ± 6:33 min:sec, at 377 ± 6 watts or 5.5 ± 0.0 watts per kg.
Though I haven't run the statistics to see if there is any significant difference (likely very little), the general tendency that I see is that higher power outputs were put out on the final climbs. This makes sense, as the riders are all trying to conserve on the initial climbs and wait for the final climbs to unleash. When I talk to the guys about the big mountain days and the multiple climbs, they always tell me that everyone in the pack has the power to make it over or chase back after the first climb, only about 60% can get over the second climb, 30% can get over the third climb, and only about 10 to 15 riders have the strength to get over the fourth or fifth climb.
Of real interest, take a look at the profiles from stage 15, 16, and 17. You can see a nice steady progression on Stage 15, with a strong finish of 5.9 watts per kg on L'Alpe d'Huez. In contrast, you can see consistent climbing on stage 16, with a detonation on the final climb up La Toussuire. What's interesting about that day was the leaders finished that climb at an average of about 5.5 watts per kg. Finally, on Stage 17 we see very consistent climbing, with a fall towards the end compared to the first climb of the day at the same length.
So if things go well for the team leaders in the upcoming stages, they'll be putting out more power on the final climbs or hill top finishes compared to the initial climbs, while the domestiques will likely have reversed profiles.
Hope this answers your question."
Allen Lim