Paris-Nice Predictions

RdBiker said:

Hmm...Contador's performance was surprising but I wouldn't say the field he was competing against was that special. If he had won against Cancellara when both were in their best form of the season, I'd be astonished. But Wiggins isn't that dominative. Come on, it was just 7'. Not that crushing. And if my eyes didn't betray me, Contador raced on drier roads. Besides Contador wasn't that bad in TTs last year (even the short ones) and if he's especially concentrated on training TTs this winter as he has said his performance isn't that out-of-this-world.
Also, it seems Alberto is in good form right now. And at a time when most riders aren't. So I won't be surprised until he beats everyone in TTs in July. IF he however does, then it'll be certain that blood bags have been emptied.

I don't, however, understand why he has such good form at this time of the year. Does he need to prove his performance to Astana?

Yeah you make good points. And I want to believe you are right but my gut tells me there is just a real sickness still in the sport that just wont go away and its like merry go round. 22yo kids dying in their sleep. Armstrong wanting back in for no apparent reason. Schumacher just making [censored] up left right and centre.

All these things are there staring you in the face on this. Contador shouldnt be in major form. For him to beat Wiggins over 9km Contador would have to be in serious serious form in the first week of March?

He is on record as stating he started his preparations for the season late due to surgery. He is trying out his gear. pure and simple. That is why he is France in March. Testing gear and testing out his network. Thats what my gut tells me. Maybe Im the loser and I need to go buy another tin foil hat.

Geoff Vadar said:

Yeah you make good points. And I want to believe you are right but my gut tells me there is just a real sickness still in the sport that just wont go away and its like merry go round. 22yo kids dying in their sleep. Armstrong wanting back in for no apparent reason. Schumacher just making [censored] up left right and centre.

All these things are there staring you in the face on this. Contador shouldnt be in major form. For him to beat Wiggins over 9km Contador would have to be in serious serious form in the first week of March?

He is on record as stating he started his preparations for the season late due to surgery. He is trying out his gear. pure and simple. That is why he is France in March. Testing gear and testing out his network. Thats what my gut tells me. Maybe Im the loser and I need to go buy another tin foil hat.

My point wasn't actually to say that Contador isn't doping. I was just saying that this ride wasn't so spectacular that it certainly proves it. But like I said IF he keeps his form going until July OR beats the [censored] out of everyone in the TdF TTs then his certainly on something good. I would love it if Contador, Cancellara, Schleck, etc. were clean but as you say it just doesn't look like it.

The only explanation/guess I can give for him being in good form this time of the year is that he has to prove he is "the man" for Astana in the Tour. If this is just his build-up for the Tour then all hell will break loose in July. He would ride away from everyone in the mountains.

But let's be optimistic. Maybe he just had a hell of a day, and Wiggins didn't have. Maybe the dry road helped him a bit too and maybe he gets an advantage on a shorter course like this because of his explosive power (born with it or acquired it by doping) combined with his speed endurance. OR then you are right and they were really trying out their new 'gear' and they didn't know it was that good so that Contador would have known to hold back a little.

EDIT: I'll take the dry roads explanation back. Just saw the pictures of Contador riding in the rain. Somehow I missed that from the french internet feed.

Geoff Vadar said:

They have to have found something new. Personally I think it goes back to CSC last year when they were having a dog of a tour and then all of a sudden cancellara started riding the peleton off his wheel up mountains. They found something new and Armstrong saw it and wanted back in. It could be a derivative of CERA. I dont have a clue about this stuff though to even know if that makes sense.

There has to be a lab somewhere that is shopping a 'pick your drug and we will customize it so it has a unique biological signature' service. Its not just about cycling. Its rife in Tennis too.

I think its [censored] up tennis in a big way. That sport used to be about incredible finesse and strategic ball placement on the court. It still is about that but it has given way to just 5 hr brutilizing of the ball into the corners. Which is parallel to 62kg climbers smashing world TT champions in cycling.

Nafa Nadal is a twin of Hewitt. Dead set twin with identical games. Nadal is dominating the sport because he is pumped with testosterone and epo. Hewitt has been virtually forced out of the sport. He has no comparative advantage anymore. When Hewitt goes deep into 5 sets his eyes are red and he cramps and his body is racked with pain. Nadal does not stop. Hewitt trains just as hard as Nadal. There may be a divergence in their Vo2max in favour of Nadal but not enough to explain his utter lack of fatigue. Federer knows this is happening. He knows he shouldnt be challenged by Nadal.

I wish I was making this up and I was a nutbag like Flyer but unfortunately its all in front of us to see. Its happening right in front of us. Very very sad - very very ghey.

I feel for Wiggins because he obviously gives his all and deserves many of these prologue type victories. He is a class act over 10km and hands down the best in the world. I dont believe in cancellara personally. Yes he is a great rider but I think a [censored] of who he is - is designer drugged.

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whiteboytrash said:

Right you are. When the worlds best & lightest climber beats the Olympic pursuit champion the season is over. Bruyneel's blood bags are in full swing.

+1. I now have to take back my first prediction. Cadel won't be sucking wheel, he's just gonna be flat out dropped.

Geoff Vadar said:

They have to have found something new. Personally I think it goes back to CSC last year when they were having a dog of a tour and then all of a sudden cancellara started riding the peleton off his wheel up mountains. They found something new and Armstrong saw it and wanted back in. It could be a derivative of CERA. I dont have a clue about this stuff though to even know if that makes sense.

There has to be a lab somewhere that is shopping a 'pick your drug and we will customize it so it has a unique biological signature' service. Its not just about cycling. Its rife in Tennis too.

I think its [censored] up tennis in a big way. That sport used to be about incredible finesse and strategic ball placement on the court. It still is about that but it has given way to just 5 hr brutilizing of the ball into the corners. Which is parallel to 62kg climbers smashing world TT champions in cycling.

Nafa Nadal is a twin of Hewitt. Dead set twin with identical games. Nadal is dominating the sport because he is pumped with testosterone and epo. Hewitt has been virtually forced out of the sport. He has no comparative advantage anymore. When Hewitt goes deep into 5 sets his eyes are red and he cramps and his body is racked with pain. Nadal does not stop. Hewitt trains just as hard as Nadal. There may be a divergence in their Vo2max in favour of Nadal but not enough to explain his utter lack of fatigue. Federer knows this is happening. He knows he shouldnt be challenged by Nadal.

I wish I was making this up and I was a nutbag like Flyer but unfortunately its all in front of us to see. Its happening right in front of us. Very very sad - very very ghey.

I feel for Wiggins because he obviously gives his all and deserves many of these prologue type victories. He is a class act over 10km and hands down the best in the world. I dont believe in cancellara personally. Yes he is a great rider but I think a [censored] of who he is - is designer drugged.

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Geoff - you make some good points but the tennis analogy is stretching it a bit. Because one player trains as hard as another (and who is to say he does, Nadal has been a gym rat for years) does not mean he will be as good or have the same level of fitness and stamina. I can recall countless grand slam five-setters over the decades where players slugged it out without cramping or dying on their feet - some are better athletes than others and some are simply better tennis players than others. If power helps win games then it makes sense to make yourself more powerful. Murray specifically worked on strength training for the last two winters - look at the results. He has also beat Nadal in Grand Slams by outwitting him with drop shots, lobs and passing shots - Hewitt just isn't that good.

Nadal (and Murray) are beating Federer regularly because Federer is nowhere near the player he was two years ago. His shot making is erratic and he has been plagued with minor injuries.

Does doping exist in tennis? I'm sure it does but I can't see it being the reason poor Leyton ain't as good as you'd like him to be. I would think it is more likely to be the reason certain female players can serve at 180 kmph though.

Geoff Vadar said:

They have to have found something new. Personally I think it goes back to CSC last year when they were having a dog of a tour and then all of a sudden cancellara started riding the peleton off his wheel up mountains. They found something new and Armstrong saw it and wanted back in. It could be a derivative of CERA. I dont have a clue about this stuff though to even know if that makes sense.

There has to be a lab somewhere that is shopping a 'pick your drug and we will customize it so it has a unique biological signature' service. Its not just about cycling. Its rife in Tennis too.

I think its [censored] up tennis in a big way. That sport used to be about incredible finesse and strategic ball placement on the court. It still is about that but it has given way to just 5 hr brutilizing of the ball into the corners. Which is parallel to 62kg climbers smashing world TT champions in cycling.

Nafa Nadal is a twin of Hewitt. Dead set twin with identical games. Nadal is dominating the sport because he is pumped with testosterone and epo. Hewitt has been virtually forced out of the sport. He has no comparative advantage anymore. When Hewitt goes deep into 5 sets his eyes are red and he cramps and his body is racked with pain. Nadal does not stop. Hewitt trains just as hard as Nadal. There may be a divergence in their Vo2max in favour of Nadal but not enough to explain his utter lack of fatigue. Federer knows this is happening. He knows he shouldnt be challenged by Nadal.

I wish I was making this up and I was a nutbag like Flyer but unfortunately its all in front of us to see. Its happening right in front of us. Very very sad - very very ghey.

I feel for Wiggins because he obviously gives his all and deserves many of these prologue type victories. He is a class act over 10km and hands down the best in the world. I dont believe in cancellara personally. Yes he is a great rider but I think a [censored] of who he is - is designer drugged.

hhgffd

No matter how good Kid's supplementation is, he's pushing himself very hard from the beginning of this season. Bruyneel and Armstrong managed to put pressure on him in sense that he's approaching to every race with idea to prove he's the man who should be supported in the Tour. This attitude could lead to burnout.

Geoff Vadar said:

They have to have found something new. Personally I think it goes back to CSC last year when they were having a dog of a tour and then all of a sudden cancellara started riding the peleton off his wheel up mountains. They found something new and Armstrong saw it and wanted back in. It could be a derivative of CERA. I dont have a clue about this stuff though to even know if that makes sense.

There has to be a lab somewhere that is shopping a 'pick your drug and we will customize it so it has a unique biological signature' service. Its not just about cycling. Its rife in Tennis too.

I think its [censored] up tennis in a big way. That sport used to be about incredible finesse and strategic ball placement on the court. It still is about that but it has given way to just 5 hr brutilizing of the ball into the corners. Which is parallel to 62kg climbers smashing world TT champions in cycling.

Nafa Nadal is a twin of Hewitt. Dead set twin with identical games. Nadal is dominating the sport because he is pumped with testosterone and epo. Hewitt has been virtually forced out of the sport. He has no comparative advantage anymore. When Hewitt goes deep into 5 sets his eyes are red and he cramps and his body is racked with pain. Nadal does not stop. Hewitt trains just as hard as Nadal. There may be a divergence in their Vo2max in favour of Nadal but not enough to explain his utter lack of fatigue. Federer knows this is happening. He knows he shouldnt be challenged by Nadal.

I wish I was making this up and I was a nutbag like Flyer but unfortunately its all in front of us to see. Its happening right in front of us. Very very sad - very very ghey.

I feel for Wiggins because he obviously gives his all and deserves many of these prologue type victories. He is a class act over 10km and hands down the best in the world. I dont believe in cancellara personally. Yes he is a great rider but I think a [censored] of who he is - is designer drugged.

dfffg

Andrija said:

No matter how good Kid's supplementation is, he's pushing himself very hard from the beginning of this season. Bruyneel and Armstrong managed to put pressure on him in sense that he's approaching to every race with idea to prove he's the man who should be supported in the Tour. This attitude could lead to burnout.

And it is/would be very bad tactics from Bruyneel since it's clear that barring a crash or an unpredictable incident Contador will/would win the 09 TdF and probably the Dauphiné and Vuelta as well. Though I'd think that Bruyneel can use his head and sees that it would need a "miracle" for Lance to win the Tour de France this season.

Flyer said:

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RdBiker said:

And it is/would be very bad tactics from Bruyneel since it's clear that barring a crash or an unpredictable incident Contador will/would win the 09 TdF and probably the Dauphiné and Vuelta as well. Though I'd think that Bruyneel can use his head and sees that it would need a "miracle" for Lance to win the Tour de France this season.

Well it's obvious that Contador should be the leader, but how can Bruyneel explain that to Armstrong? Their connection is to complicated. So, they have to create conditions where they'll have excuse not to support Contador.

Mtventoux said:

I'm sorry...I'm confused. Who is Contraban? I follow pretty closely and I have never heard of any rider by that name! What team does he ride for?

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Denia said:

Geoff - you make some good points but the tennis analogy is stretching it a bit. Because one player trains as hard as another (and who is to say he does, Nadal has been a gym rat for years) does not mean he will be as good or have the same level of fitness and stamina. I can recall countless grand slam five-setters over the decades where players slugged it out without cramping or dying on their feet - some are better athletes than others and some are simply better tennis players than others. If power helps win games then it makes sense to make yourself more powerful. Murray specifically worked on strength training for the last two winters - look at the results. He has also beat Nadal in Grand Slams by outwitting him with drop shots, lobs and passing shots - Hewitt just isn't that good.

Nadal (and Murray) are beating Federer regularly because Federer is nowhere near the player he was two years ago. His shot making is erratic and he has been plagued with minor injuries.

Does doping exist in tennis? I'm sure it does but I can't see it being the reason poor Leyton ain't as good as you'd like him to be. I would think it is more likely to be the reason certain female players can serve at 180 kmph though.

cyclingweekly.co.ukThe Big Interview Paul Kimmage article 150260.htmlOpen ↗

From Wiggins Camp on the prologue:

Quoted post said:

(Wiggins) he was devastated after losing to Alberto Contador. Bradley has not brought reproach to himself...He had seen the course before, he was very focused, he gave 100% and the road was equally wet for everybody. He rode over 60 km/h on the straight sections. With a difference of seven seconds, the winner was clearly the strongest today.

From Cadel Evans directly:

Quoted post said:

A flat, windy and wet opening to ‘The Race to the Sun’, a stage which I was sure it would suit a larger prologue specialist.

Wiggins seemed to be the overriding favourite, but a slight little Spanish guy proved us all wrong. Alberto Contador rode at almost 50 km/h average to gap the entire field by 07 seconds, considering the time gaps between the others in the first ten were all 1-3 seconds apart, it was a sizeable margin.

For me, just a calm start to my time trialling this season, 30 sec’s down on Contador is a quite some gap though.

IMO both Wiggins and Evans are calling out Contador for cheating. I feel for Wiggins because he has obviously set his sights on this prologue.

If alarm bells arent going off in France right now I'd be very surprised. Personally I'd pull Astana again. They arent the only [censored] going around but they are the biggest [censored]. Contador, Bruneel, Armstrong - absolutely taking the [censored] out of the sport. All they are doing is encouraging other teams to jump on the old bandwagon.

Have a look at the farken gutless song and dance Schumacher is putting on. He clearly thinks its back to the good ole days.

I want to see some of the guys who deserve to wins things - actually win!

I see this Contador's performance as a chance for anti-doping authorities in France. They should study his sample from today and, if they find something (which they should), wait until July and catch complete Astana gang along with all other [censored] you're mentioning (and we're thinking of).

Flyer said:

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Andrija said:

I see this Contador's performance as a chance for anti-doping authorities in France. They should study his sample from today and, if they find something (which they should), wait until July and catch complete Astana gang along with all other [censored] you're mentioning (and we're thinking of).

From what I understand, the AFLD is in charge of testing in all ASO races in France. And if they're worth their salt, Contador is now a targeted rider.

Judging from last year's TdF, I'm hopeful that they'll find something if there is something to find.

Andrija said:

I see this Contador's performance as a chance for anti-doping authorities in France. They should study his sample from today and, if they find something (which they should), wait until July and catch complete Astana gang along with all other [censored] you're mentioning (and we're thinking of).

They will be using their own blood and stuff that is currently undetectable.