Paris-Nice Predictions



Geoff Vadar said:
To be honest, and as much as I wish it wasnt so, I dont think we will see all that much of Cadel come July. I think top 10 but a good 8-9 minutes away from fighting for podium.

This July will be like the biggest NYE fireworks display of all time between SAXO and Astana. There is no doubt the gloves are off again and its back to mega robot explosions up hills.

Texas T-Rex is back in town and there is no room for tiny teddys this year.

As they explode up the mountains dropping Evans, The Chav, Lloydy and anyone else not on gear you should all play this in the background.

It will be surreal.


The only thing missing will be Jan.
 
I'm fairly sure ASO have told Riis and the Hog to calm it down. ie you can only have 5 of the 9 using blood doping and the rest have to stick to testosterone and early 90's styled doping. That way some of it may look believable. If we get Levi driving the peleton with his bald scone like the nosecone of a fighter jet at 65km p/h for 3 weeks then they’ll have some questions to answer. It can’t go from what it was last year to guys pushing 500+ watts for 10km straight on 12% climbs. The measure will be how well Cadel can sit on wheels.

Geoff Vadar said:
To be honest, and as much as I wish it wasnt so, I dont think we will see all that much of Cadel come July. I think top 10 but a good 8-9 minutes away from fighting for podium.

This July will be like the biggest NYE fireworks display of all time between SAXO and Astana. There is no doubt the gloves are off again and its back to mega robot explosions up hills.

Texas T-Rex is back in town and there is no room for tiny teddys this year.

As they explode up the mountains dropping Evans, The Chav, Lloydy and anyone else not on gear you should all play this in the background.

It will be surreal.

As for Evans I think the TDF has slipped beyond him. He is a complete rider and outstanding athlete but I cant see the landscape shifting for him in the next 2 years to realistically make a go of it. There would have to be a catastrophic drug scandal at this years TDF whereby its almost called off forcing some kind of submit regarding the sport.

I actually look forward to seeing him ride for someone else in a few years time because he is loyal and bloody consistent which is what a leader needs in his 2IC. You just have to slap him in the face every so often and tell him to stop crying. But everyone has their weaknesses.
 
biker jk said:
Two podium finishes at the TDF suggests he's a much better cyclist than you suggest. You and ****ing **** Cyclist are like clueless parrots.
OK Cadel's Mom, shouldn't you stick to his fansite "Suck Hard"
 
wicklow200 said:
OK Cadel's Mom, shouldn't you stick to his fansite "Suck Hard"
"Suck Hard". Isn't that the title of the film you and ****** **** Cyclist have made together?
 
Geoff Vadar said:
To be honest, and as much as I wish it wasnt so, I dont think we will see all that much of Cadel come July. I think top 10 but a good 8-9 minutes away from fighting for podium.

This July will be like the biggest NYE fireworks display of all time between SAXO and Astana. There is no doubt the gloves are off again and its back to mega robot explosions up hills.

Texas T-Rex is back in town and there is no room for tiny teddys this year.

As they explode up the mountains dropping Evans, The Chav, Lloydy and anyone else not on gear you should all play this in the background.

It will be surreal.

As for Evans I think the TDF has slipped beyond him. He is a complete rider and outstanding athlete but I cant see the landscape shifting for him in the next 2 years to realistically make a go of it. There would have to be a catastrophic drug scandal at this years TDF whereby its almost called off forcing some kind of submit regarding the sport.

I actually look forward to seeing him ride for someone else in a few years time because he is loyal and bloody consistent which is what a leader needs in his 2IC. You just have to slap him in the face every so often and tell him to stop crying. But everyone has their weaknesses.
Word. That sums up the situation nicely.

Evans might be better off using the Leipheimer approach and targeting smaller stage races. Either that or he needs to seriously upgrade his "preparation." He will get murdered in both the mountains and the time trials this year.
 
Geoff Vadar said:
As for Evans I think the TDF has slipped beyond him. He is a complete rider and outstanding athlete but I cant see the landscape shifting for him in the next 2 years to realistically make a go of it. There would have to be a catastrophic drug scandal at this years TDF whereby its almost called off forcing some kind of submit regarding the sport.
Absolutely agree. Aside from anything else, he just doesn't seem to believe he can win and this year's TDF will be no place for the mentally fraught! He's not had the most luck in his career and I think 2008 was his chance.
 
mrfrogger said:
Absolutely agree. Aside from anything else, he just doesn't seem to believe he can win and this year's TDF will be no place for the mentally fraught! He's not had the most luck in his career and I think 2008 was his chance.
Perhaps Contador and the Schlecks will forgot to eat (dope) at the TDF or no-one pulls out a Sastre-like unbelievable performance on the key climb. I agree it's an unlikely proposition so Cadel's "luck" may continue to be bad.
 
Honestly the most interesting thing about this years TdF is going to be the internal battles within Astana. You'll have Berty and like the one rider on the team who is loyal to him and then LA with his 6 buddies duking it out. Everyone else is going to be left in the dust. After Lances comments that he's going to do the Giro at 90% that was it, the last straw. No way in hell that he's letting the TdF slip through his fingers he's going there to kick the **** out of everyone, Contador included. Contador might win of course but then maybe the Hog accidently leaves some 'materials' lying around that get dirty berty busted so LA can take first place? Who knows.
 
Eldrack said:
then maybe the Hog accidently leaves some 'materials' lying around that get dirty berty busted so LA can take first place? Who knows.
The Hog wouldn't risk a positive. He'll just throw his blood down the sink. The Hog loves playing the pimp with his girls.
 
patch70 said:
Are you saying that you don't understand the difference between doping that is genuinely performance enhancing and that which is more accurately described as 'performance maintaining'?

The drugs I listed for the latter have very minimal performance enhancing effect. Corticosteroids help you get over an injury more quickly. Insulin helps you get your glycogen stores back up more quickly. Growth Hormone & salbutamol do not much at all.

The ability to blood dope to a haematocrit of 0.60 before a stage though helps a lot more and requires a whole lot more infrastructure and money.

cheating, is cheating, is cheating... it's like saying i'm a little bit pregnant... there is no... little bit preganant... you're are or you aren't... and you are a cheat, or you are not.

as far as i'm concerned it you are going to cheat... then just cheat.. why would any intelligent person, in their right mind take on the risk of getting caught and serving the same sanction for low efficacy gear... that's what you call a stupid cheat... guys like that should get busted just for being that stupid!

and the other thing is that everything you mentioned is performance enhancing and gives the user an unfair advantage over people not using that method or substance... cripes, we saw contador wiped out by a legal performance enhancer... food!
 
doctorSpoc said:
why would any intelligent person, in their right mind take on the risk of getting caught and serving the same sanction for low efficacy gear... that's what you call a stupid cheat...
Perhaps you'd like to tell those "stupid cheats" how to access the newest gear that is very rare and prohibitively expensive for the vast majority???

The really successful cheats don't take dope thinking "Gee, I hope I don't get caught". They, like Marion Jones, take the dope knowing that their is no possible way that they can get caught no matter how much they take as long as there is no test for the substance that they are taking.

Compare that to the athletes who take a little of this and a little of that at doses lower than will show up in tests, just to try to keep up. But they can't use the good products that they can't access. And they can't use big doses because there are tests available for the old school dope that they are using. Yes they are both cheats but I feel a lot more contempt for the cheat that is supported by the massive $.

I also get the feeling that most of the dopers don't actually think they are doing anything wrong because they "know" (rightly or wrongly) that everyone else is doing it, and that it is okay as long as you don't get caught. Take the example of Floyd Landis, who got busted for something that did nothing to enhance is performance (i.e. androgenic hormones), and didn't get busted for the things that did (i.e. the bags of blood and the amphetamines). He's still trying to argue that he is innocent because he knows that he wasn't doing anything that Lance or Basso weren't doing.
 
RdBiker said:
Please point to the post where I imply that Contador is the only one doping and the rest are clean. I haven't noticed anyone saying that either. All that people are saying is that a small, light rider winning a flat time trial is suspicous. Those kinds of courses favour the stronger built-riders and on the flats the W/kg number is useless so the guys who can produce the most watts usually win. In order for a guy with little muscle mass to produce more power than a guy with 10s of percents more mass means that his muscle fibers have to be much more efficient and there has to be more of them in the same mass. That is one of the points: how can Contador's muscles be so much more efficient than everybody else's. That brings doping into question. Usually when riders dope they use pretty much the same PEDs so that the field is in a way "level". When some one uses a PED that brings him to a totally new level that takes interest out of the races (in the viewers POV). SO my answer to your question "is it ok to use PEDs unless you are succesfull" is yes. If someone is dominant and the performance can be seen to come from cheating the races aren't as fun to watch.

1)please point to a post where i say... that everyone is saying that Contador is the only one doping?

i'm saying that everyone knows that everyone is doping, so why do they care so much about Contador doping? my point is not that... it's like blaming the crips for everything that went bad in compton when the bloods are shooting up the place just as much.. i'm saying that the whole arguement is stupid because... as i was saying who are you protecting from contador's exploits.. all the other cheat?!? c'mon it's just stupid!

2) you should leave exercise alone before you hurt yourself... LOL!!
it's not more watts and bigger muscles that produce fast riders on the flats... you are right that W/kg is not as accurate a predictor of performance potential on the flat as it is on climbs.. but not for the reasons you give.

on the flats it's mostly about W/CdA... firstly, the little guy has a smaller frontal area than the big guy (i.e. doesn't need to push as much air out of the way and doesn't leave as much of a turbulent low pressure area behind him) so doesn't need to produce as much power as the bigger guy does... so the W/kg thing kinda does go with the trend but over estimates the speed of the little guy...

also the more flexible guy who can get in a better tuck, or the guy with no hump in his back, or the guy with smaller shoulders etc... etc... as well doesn't need to produce as much power... the Cd part of the equation...

the issue is that frontal area is going up by the square but weigh goes up by the cube... not good for the big guy on hills but good relative to his smaller counter parts on the flat.

imagine for simplicity that two riders are cubes... with fictitious numbers just to demonstrate what's happening...

small rider is 1x1x1, weight is 1, frontal area is 1, power is 100... W/kg = 100, W/A = 100
large rider is 2x2x2, weight is 8, frontal area is 4, power is 200... W/kg = 25, W/A = 50

so you can see that large rider's W/kg is 1/4 that of small rider but large rider's W/A is only 1/2 of small rider's... the numbers have a large differences to clearly show the trend... with more realistic numbers you can see that the W/kg is a much larger advantage for smaller guys relative to bigger guys than W/A is for larger size riders is relative to smaller size on the flat... little guys bumps power up a little and he's even with the big guys... big guys don't stand a chance in the hills though. but you can see that on the flat where W/A is the most dominant factor this would be relatively more favourable for larger riders (i.e. not absolutely) and that larger riders absolutely need to produce more power to just stay even with smaller riders... but you can also see that with a sufficiently higher power for the smaller rider he can ride faster than the larger rider even on the flat...

then there's the Cd part where riders can improve their speed with better position and better body type and equipment...

there is also anaerobic capacity which is a factor in these short TTs (why we see guys like Thor Hushovd winning prologues)...

as for muscle efficiency.. i'd guess that Contador, as a three time GT winner very damn likely has muscle efficiency greater than Wiggins'

the bigger guys doing better on the flat is only a trend... you can't bring that trend to the individual level..

another factor that a lot don't consider is the time of the year... some riders are good at this time of the year and some, not so much... Contador loves Paris-Nice and has always been up and prepared for it even as early as it is in the season...

remember i'm not saying he's clean... i'm just saying that among the dirty there is nothing that astounding or unusual about him winning that prologue...
 
patch70 said:
Perhaps you'd like to tell those "stupid cheats" how to access the newest gear that is very rare and prohibitively expensive for the vast majority???

The really successful cheats don't take dope thinking "Gee, I hope I don't get caught". They, like Marion Jones, take the dope knowing that their is no possible way that they can get caught no matter how much they take as long as there is no test for the substance that they are taking.

Compare that to the athletes who take a little of this and a little of that at doses lower than will show up in tests, just to try to keep up. But they can't use the good products that they can't access. And they can't use big doses because there are tests available for the old school dope that they are using. Yes they are both cheats but I feel a lot more contempt for the cheat that is supported by the massive $.

I also get the feeling that most of the dopers don't actually think they are doing anything wrong because they "know" (rightly or wrongly) that everyone else is doing it, and that it is okay as long as you don't get caught. Take the example of Floyd Landis, who got busted for something that did nothing to enhance is performance (i.e. androgenic hormones), and didn't get busted for the things that did (i.e. the bags of blood and the amphetamines). He's still trying to argue that he is innocent because he knows that he wasn't doing anything that Lance or Basso weren't doing.

so the other riders in the top ten don't have money or access to the stuff Astana does... sorry... don't believe it.
 
doctorSpoc said:
1)please point to a post where i say... that everyone is saying that Contador is the only one doping?

i'm saying that everyone knows that everyone is doping, so why do they care so much about Contador doping? my point is not that... it's like blaming the crips for everything that went bad in compton when the bloods are shooting up the place just as much.. i'm saying that the whole arguement is stupid because... as i was saying who are you protecting from contador's exploits.. all the other cheat?!? c'mon it's just stupid!

2) you should leave exercise alone before you hurt yourself... LOL!!
it's not more watts and bigger muscles that produce fast riders on the flats... you are right that W/kg is not as accurate a predictor of performance potential on the flat as it is on climbs.. but not for the reasons you give.

on the flats it's mostly about W/CdA... firstly, the little guy has a smaller frontal area than the big guy (i.e. doesn't need to push as much air out of the way and doesn't leave as much of a turbulent low pressure area behind him) so doesn't need to produce as much power as the bigger guy does... so the W/kg thing kinda does go with the trend but over estimates the speed of the little guy...

also the more flexible guy who can get in a better tuck, or the guy with no hump in his back, or the guy with smaller shoulders etc... etc... as well doesn't need to produce as much power... the Cd part of the equation...

the issue is that frontal area is going up by the square but weigh goes up by the cube... not good for the big guy on hills but good relative to his smaller counter parts on the flat.

imagine for simplicity that two riders are cubes... with fictitious numbers just to demonstrate what's happening...

small rider is 1x1x1, weight is 1, frontal area is 1, power is 100... W/kg = 100, W/A = 100
large rider is 2x2x2, weight is 8, frontal area is 4, power is 200... W/kg = 25, W/A = 50

so you can see that large rider's W/kg is 1/4 that of small rider but large rider's W/A is only 1/2 of small rider's... the numbers have a large differences to clearly show the trend... with more realistic numbers you can see that the W/kg is a much larger advantage for smaller guys relative to bigger guys than W/A is for larger size riders is relative to smaller size on the flat... little guys bumps power up a little and he's even with the big guys... big guys don't stand a chance in the hills though. but you can see that on the flat where W/A is the most dominant factor this would be relatively more favourable for larger riders (i.e. not absolutely) and that larger riders absolutely need to produce more power to just stay even with smaller riders... but you can also see that with a sufficiently higher power for the smaller rider he can ride faster than the larger rider even on the flat...

then there's the Cd part where riders can improve their speed with better position and better body type and equipment...

there is also anaerobic capacity which is a factor in these short TTs (why we see guys like Thor Hushovd winning prologues)...

as for muscle efficiency.. i'd guess that Contador, as a three time GT winner very damn likely has muscle efficiency greater than Wiggins'

the bigger guys doing better on the flat is only a trend... you can't bring that trend to the individual level..

another factor that a lot don't consider is the time of the year... some riders are good at this time of the year and some, not so much... Contador loves Paris-Nice and has always been up and prepared for it even as early as it is in the season...

remember i'm not saying he's clean... i'm just saying that among the dirty there is nothing that astounding or unusual about him winning that prologue...
errrr
 

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