Paris-Roubaix picks

[Bret Wade]

Kenny wrote:
>>I'm going against the Quick Step trend and picking PVP. Yes, he'll be outnumbered and doesn't
>>typically show as well in Roubaix as at the Ronde, but you have to like an underdog who is also
>>the strongest right now. I don't think Museeuw is at his best (PVP used him as a springboard in
>>the Ronde) and that will upset the Quick Step plans.
>>
>>1. PVP
>>2. Servais Knaven
>>3. Frederic Guesdon
>
>
> Museeuw not at his best? You make me laugh. You should have seen Gent-Wevelgem. Everything starts
> with Museeuw, he has the strenght, the experience, the technique and the team. He also declared in
> the papers he's recovered from his sickness and that he's feeling great. I believe PVP should ride
> top10 but i don't believe in winning. Till now he was once second but that's it. He doesn't ecxel
> on the flat paves like Museeuw, Tafi, or Ballerini. Offcourse he's serious challenger (not an
> underdog!), but a step below Museeuw

I do hope Museeuw is at his best, but I don't think he is. I reread the Gent-Wevelgem live report on
cyclingnews.com. That's not the same as seeing it in person, but it'll have to do. From that
description, although he lead many of the climbs, he never caused a split, and then missed out when
the end game started. That sounds to me like he's not at his best. I could be wrong, but not
laughably wrong.

Bret

 

[Tony]

Tafi- a pick more from the heart than from the head, but also because I fear it may be the last time
he will be a favorite in this race. Forza Tafone!

In the modern era, only three men have managed to win both RVV and P-R in the same year. These are
the great Roger de Vlaeminck in 77 and Rik van Looy in 62, and also Raymond Impanis in 54. In the
last 13 years, only one man has stood on the podium in both the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix
the same year. (No prizes for guessing Johan Museeuw).

 

[Ewoud Dronkert]

On 13 Apr 2003 00:04:39 GMT, TritonRider wrote:
>2. Wesseman Like to see Wesseman take it

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/?id=2003/apr03/apr08news2 Two broken ribs ("one broken, one
fractured" WTF??) heeee's out.

 

[Oldphart]

dude wesseman is out 4-6 with a broken something or other......

TritonRider wrote:
> 1. Museeuw
> 2. Wesseman
> 3. VDB Like to see Wesseman take it, but I think the old man has one more lesson for the cubs.
> Bill C

 

[Kenny]

> I do hope Museeuw is at his best, but I don't think he is. I reread the Gent-Wevelgem live report
> on cyclingnews.com. That's not the same as seeing it in person, but it'll have to do. From that
> description, although he lead many of the climbs, he never caused a split, and then missed out
> when the end game started. That sounds to me like he's not at his best. I could be wrong, but not
> laughably wrong.

You really should not read that report on cyclingnews.com. Museeuw ordered his troups to ride as a
group and to accellerate in the windy region at the coast. It was this move that caused the major
brakeaway of 26 riders. He definitely did a serious part of the work there. He lead at the climbs
but because the last climb is at 40km from the finish it wasn't smart to get away on those climbs
with such a distance to go and a strong blowing wind. In the last 20 km he was active to get away
with a few riders but because of the team tactics and also because most of the riders were
targetting him , it was Boonen and Knaven who got away. Believe me, he's at his top.

 

[Kurgan Gringion]

"Kenny" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> > I do hope Museeuw is at his best, but I don't think he is. I reread the Gent-Wevelgem live
> > report on cyclingnews.com. That's not the same as seeing it in person, but it'll have to do.
> > From that description, although he lead many of the climbs, he never caused a split, and then
> > missed out when the end game started. That sounds to me like he's not at his best. I could be
> > wrong, but not laughably wrong.
>
> You really should not read that report on cyclingnews.com. Museeuw ordered his troups to ride as a
> group and to accellerate in the windy region at the coast. It was this move that caused the major
> brakeaway of 26 riders. He definitely did a serious part of the work there. He lead at the climbs
> but because the last climb is at 40km from the finish it wasn't smart to get away on those climbs
> with such a distance to go and a strong blowing wind. In the last 20 km he was active to get away
> with a few riders but because of the team tactics and also because most of the riders were
> targetting him , it was Boonen and Knaven who got away. Believe me, he's at his top.

Damn Kenny.

You da man. I'll be sure to consult if I ever call up one of those British bookies.

 

[Bret Wade]

Bret Wade wrote:
>
>
> Kenny wrote:
>
>> 1. Johan Museeuw
>> 2. Dario Pieri
>> 3. Max Van Heeswijk
>
>
> I'm going against the Quick Step trend and picking PVP. Yes, he'll be outnumbered and doesn't
> typically show as well in Roubaix as at the Ronde, but you have to like an underdog who is also
> the strongest right now. I don't think Museeuw is at his best (PVP used him as a springboard in
> the Ronde) and that will upset the Quick Step plans.
>
> 1. PVP
> 2. Servais Knaven
> 3. Frederic Guesdon
>

Please note that not only did I pick the winner and the status of Museeuw, but I also picked the
best placed quick stepper. Now if only the french were dependable*, I would have been perfect.

* - gratuitous cheap shot having nothing at all to do with my actual political views.

Bret

 

[Bret Wade]

Kurgan Gringioni wrote:
> "Kenny" <[email protected]> wrote in message
> news:[email protected]...
>
>>>I do hope Museeuw is at his best, but I don't think he is. I reread the Gent-Wevelgem live report
>>>on cyclingnews.com. That's not the same as seeing it in person, but it'll have to do. From that
>>>description, although he lead many of the climbs, he never caused a split, and then missed out
>>>when the end game started. That sounds to me like he's not at his best. I could be wrong, but not
>>>laughably wrong.
>>
>>You really should not read that report on cyclingnews.com. Museeuw ordered his troups to ride as a
>>group and to accellerate in the windy region at the coast. It was this move that caused the major
>>brakeaway of 26 riders. He definitely did a serious part of the work there. He lead at the climbs
>>but because the last climb is at 40km from the finish it wasn't smart to get away on those climbs
>>with such a distance to go and a strong blowing wind. In the last 20 km he was active to get away
>>with a few riders but because of the team tactics and also because most of the riders were
>>targetting him , it was Boonen and Knaven who got away. Believe me, he's at his top.
>
>
>
>
>
> Damn Kenny.
>
>
>
> You da man. I'll be sure to consult if I ever call up one of those British bookies.
>
>

Dude,

That was my slam to make and I had already decided to grant clemency. Kenny had a rough day. You are
a no good vigilante.

Bret

 

[Kurgan Gringion]

"Bret Wade" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:[email protected]...
>
> That was my slam to make

There are no rules here, jerky.

 

[Kenny]

> >
> >
> > Damn Kenny.
> >
> >
> >
> > You da man. I'll be sure to consult if I ever call up one of those British bookies.
> >
> >
>
> Dude,
>
> That was my slam to make and I had already decided to grant clemency. Kenny had a rough day. You
> are a no good vigilante.
>
> Bret

What do you guys mean by that?

 

[Bart]

"Bret Wade" <[email protected]> wrote in message
. From that description,
> although he lead many of the climbs, he never caused a split, and then missed out when the end
> game started.

i'm late with this but many people have a wrong idea of Wevelgem, focussing on the Kemmel. The Real
Cut is made in the 50-80 kms prior (depending on the wind angle), in the echelons. Only the first 3
or 4 echelons are still somehgow relevant then, the others often take the shortest road to Wevelgem,
not minding the Kemmel. This year too and the spectators tried to stop and boo-ed them when they
left the course

And Museeuw was not missing out in the endgame, he just covered his teammates. Actaully Boonen
wasn't good enough. Not active enough in breaking the chase on Knaven, who should have won, and then
-unsurprisingly- losing the sprint to more matured riders.

 

[Bart]

sorry if my typos and language are an insult to the CLASS of this newsgroup, but the time on my
hands has been shrinking or something.

 

[Bret Wade]

Kenny wrote:
>>>
>>>Damn Kenny.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>You da man. I'll be sure to consult if I ever call up one of those British bookies.
>>>
>>>
>>
>>Dude,
>>
>>That was my slam to make and I had already decided to grant clemency. Kenny had a rough day. You
>>are a no good vigilante.
>>
>>Bret
>
>
>
> What do you guys mean by that?

Kurgan believes that your talents lie elsewhere than prognostication, emphasizing this point with
his subtle form of irony. As the target of your prior inaccurate ridicule, I felt that he should
have deferred to me on this matter. Sensing that you had suffered enough at the unhappy demise of
Mr. Museeuw, I would have preferred to cut you some slack.

Bret

 

[Bret Wade]

Bart wrote:
> "Bret Wade" <[email protected]> wrote in message
> . From that description,
>
>>although he lead many of the climbs, he never caused a split, and then missed out when the end
>>game started.
>
>
> i'm late with this but many people have a wrong idea of Wevelgem, focussing on the Kemmel. The
> Real Cut is made in the 50-80 kms prior (depending on the wind angle), in the echelons. Only the
> first 3 or 4 echelons are still somehgow relevant then, the others often take the shortest road to
> Wevelgem, not minding the Kemmel. This year too and the spectators tried to stop and boo-ed them
> when they left the course
>
> And Museeuw was not missing out in the endgame, he just covered his teammates. Actaully Boonen
> wasn't good enough. Not active enough in breaking the chase on Knaven, who should have won, and
> then -unsurprisingly- losing the sprint to more matured riders.

I don't disagree with anything you've said here, it all sounds very reasonable and I admit that I
know little about the race. But the question was whether Museeuw demonstrated at Gent-Wevelgem that
he was at the top of his form. I still contend that he did not, whatever the reason. Riding as an
equal to Boonen, Knaven or anyone else is not Museeuw at his best.

I'm curious about what you think Boonen should have done to break the chase of Knaven. My
understanding is that active blocking of a chasing group is frowned upon in the european pro
peleton, unlike the US. Did you expect Boonen to attack the chase group?

Bret

 

[Ewoud Dronkert]

On Tue, 15 Apr 2003 04:33:32 GMT, Bret Wade wrote:
>I'm curious about what you think Boonen should have done to break the chase of Knaven.

Ride in second and not take over, break the train.

>My understanding is that active blocking of a chasing group is frowned upon in the european pro
>peloton, unlike the US.

Active blocking like ride 'm in a ditch, yes. Active blocking by riding near the front and not take
pulls and covering every attack, no problem.

 

[Kurgan Gringion]

"Ewoud Dronkert" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> On Tue, 15 Apr 2003 04:33:32 GMT, Bret Wade wrote:
> >I'm curious about what you think Boonen should have done to break the chase of Knaven.
>
> Ride in second and not take over, break the train.
>
> >My understanding is that active blocking of a chasing group is frowned upon in the european pro
> >peloton, unlike the US.
>
> Active blocking like ride 'm in a ditch, yes. Active blocking by riding near the front and not
> take pulls and covering every attack, no problem.

The situation we're analyzing is Boonen and Knaven in a small group, Knaven attacking.

Perhaps Bret is thinking of comments referring to a team chase, where a sprinter's team is bringing
back a breakaway, or a GC leader's team is protecting his lead. In that situation, other teams are
not to interfere with the rhythm of the chase correct?

 

[Ewoud Dronkert]

On Tue, 15 Apr 2003 07:33:49 GMT, Kurgan Gringioni wrote:
>"Ewoud Dronkert" <[email protected]> wrote:
>> Ride in second and not take over, break the train.
>
>The situation we're analyzing is Boonen and Knaven in a small group, Knaven attacking.

I know, I saw it happen on tv. The commentators were already talking about it then, and again
during P-R, how Boonen was not being a good teammate for Knaven by just keeping at the back of the
small group.

>In that situation, other teams are not to interfere with the rhythm of the chase correct?

Well, what is interfering? If there already is an organized chase happening the decision has
apparently been made to chase no matter who's in the wheels. So stay there or you will be "frowned
upon". The larger the group, the more this scenario is likely to happen. On the other hand in (very)
small groups, or if the organization is not there yet, or if you're a bit of a pusher and >60kg and
trying to be the best teammate there is and don't mind a little "frowning upon", OR indeed if the
final has begun and there's an important victory at the line; you place yourself in between the
chasers and interfere with the rythm. It's about return on investment: if you're being the biggest
asshole around and still your team doesn't win, there wasn't much point to it *and* you haven't made
any new friends. If you get "frowned upon" in a major way, but the team wins, then who cares?!

 

[Kenny]

> I'm curious about what you think Boonen should have done to break the chase of Knaven. My
> understanding is that active blocking of a chasing group is frowned upon in the european pro
> peleton, unlike the US.

I don't think that's true what you say about euro-frowning upon active blocking.

> Did you expect Boonen to attack the chase group?

I expected Boonen to attack at the moment Knaven was caught back. I think he should have got much
more chance than trying to outsprint Vogels. But I guess, as he admitted later, he didn't have the
strength no more to do that.

 

[Kenny]

> Kurgan believes that your talents lie elsewhere than prognostication, emphasizing this point with
> his subtle form of irony. As the target of your prior inaccurate ridicule, I felt that he should
> have deferred to me on this matter. Sensing that you had suffered enough at the unhappy demise of
> Mr. Museeuw, I would have preferred to cut you some slack.
>

I don't get it. What was ridiculous about the things I said? I just said what i saw during the live
coverage of Gent-Wevelgem. If Museeuw was indeed bad that day you should hear me saying he was good.
But I saw the race so i think i can say i was pretty well placed to give my opinion about that. Bart
even backed me up about the Kemmelberg and the heavy wind at the coast. I really don't get what
Kurgan's point is.

 

[Bart]

Bret Wade <[email protected]> wrote in message
> I don't disagree with anything you've said here, it all sounds very reasonable and I admit that I
> know little about the race. But the question was whether Museeuw demonstrated at Gent-Wevelgem
> that he was at the top of his form.

No, but the race offers less opportunity for it than the Ronde or Roubaix. getting an echelon going
100 km into the race is no indication for Museeuw being top. On the Kemmel passages Klier and
Museeuw seemed to be the strongest and set the pace that knocked the sprinters back. I agree that is
still no indication of a top Museeuw. I mean, being a player in the Ronde after 220 kms and 15 hills
(when the real final begins) , or 220 kms onto Roubaix, goes beyond all that.

But in Wevelgem Klier and Museeuw looked the strongest in the race, and afterwards Klier declared
Museeuw favorite for Roubaix, admitting not (yet) being competitive in the biggest races himself.
And he might be the best witness.

The final 40 kms of Wevelgem are flat an typically pure tactics among the 20 or so leftover riders.

>
> I'm curious about what you think Boonen should have done to break the chase of Knaven. My
> understanding is that active blocking of a chasing group is frowned upon in the european pro
> peleton, unlike the US.

Active blocking is generally not done when there is an organised oiled-machine chase going on at the
front of the pack.

in G-W of course it would still have been disliked when Boonen would come to the front , but it
would have been feasible in this situation: tactical situation with 3 riders chasing for their own
chances close to the finish, and not giving everything, and hesitating now and then. I'm no apostel
of THE LOOK, but just hanging at the back was also
psychologically underexploitating the situation: riding next to the others once in a while ,
"checking" them and showing one's fresh and ready should mean something too. But from the sprint
results after Boonen's free ride, it seems he didn't have enough in him that day.