I live in Marin and ride Mt. Tam and West Marin all the time (I assume you're talking about the SF Bay Area). Plenty of hilly stuff. I wrestled over this same decision for a while when I was looking at new bikes. My last bike -- the San Marino in my sig -- is a 52/42/30 triple with a 11-23 cassette. I knew I'd be going with a double for the new bike, but the question was, compact or not? My new bike came standard with a 53/39 and a 12-25 cassette. I figured I'd give it a shot first, before spending the money to swap out parts. Am I glad I did. I am so happy with the standard double setup.
I'd think a triple with a 26 tooth granny is overkill for a road bike, especially if you plan on running something like a 12-25. However, keep in mind that there is a very large difference between your current easiest gear - the 39/34, and the easiest gear on the compact setup - the 34/25. That's about a 15% change. Are you ready for that?
Try this: Do one or more of your regular rides, but don't use anything easier than your 39/30 or better yet, no easier than your 39/26. If you feel you can complete the rides no problem, you're probably ready for the switch.