Predictions for La Mongie?
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Ullrich has said that he will attack early. He didn't say on what day, but Friday is the first killer stage where a strong GC rider can blow open a huge lead. So I'm going to believe that Jan is ready to make a run for it on Friday early on. I think Lance and the other GC contenders will try to counterattack. From there, it depends partly on the weather as to who I expect to win.
I still think LA will win La Mongie, but he is quoted after today's stage as noting.
"I think Saturday (Stage 13) suits me better. Tomorrow is better suited to a smaller more explosive climber... I don't think what happens tomorrow is any indication of what will happen on Plateau de Beille and other days."
He's only engaging in Psych-ops in case Mayo wins tomorrow. I think LA will attack tomorrow when he, Mayo and Heras are the only ones not dropped.
"I think Saturday (Stage 13) suits me better. Tomorrow is better suited to a smaller more explosive climber... I don't think what happens tomorrow is any indication of what will happen on Plateau de Beille and other days."
He's only engaging in Psych-ops in case Mayo wins tomorrow. I think LA will attack tomorrow when he, Mayo and Heras are the only ones not dropped.
After watching todays stage i'm convinced that LA is on top form. The way he was sprinting out the stage at the end with O'Grady, Zabel, Hushvod etc was very impressive.
My view is that tomorrow will be very similar the the 2002 stage which finished in La Mongie. Remember how Postal just set a hard tempo and dropped everyone off the back except for Beloki? This time Beloki will be replaced Ullrich and Heras by one of Azvedo/Beltran/Rubiera, but the outcome will be the same - LA to win by 8 secs.
I think Ulrich will try to attack, but LA will counter.
I know Mayo will also attack, but i'm sure that both he & Hamilton are both suffering too much to be effective.
I would dearly love Ullrich to win #2, but i'm starting to feel that LA is on course for #6......we shall see?
My view is that tomorrow will be very similar the the 2002 stage which finished in La Mongie. Remember how Postal just set a hard tempo and dropped everyone off the back except for Beloki? This time Beloki will be replaced Ullrich and Heras by one of Azvedo/Beltran/Rubiera, but the outcome will be the same - LA to win by 8 secs.
I think Ulrich will try to attack, but LA will counter.
I know Mayo will also attack, but i'm sure that both he & Hamilton are both suffering too much to be effective.
I would dearly love Ullrich to win #2, but i'm starting to feel that LA is on course for #6......we shall see?
LA predicts on his fan site that Mayo will attack:
"Thoughts on Mayo attacking soon: 'He’ll attack in the Pyrenees for sure. He’ll attack Friday, he’ll attack tomorrow, because La Mongie is closer to the Basque Country than Plateau de Beille and that mountain will, the trees and landscape will be green but the roads will be orange with the supporters so, he will go tomorrow. At least I hope so.'
How nasty is Saturday’s stage:
'It’s very nasty, it’s very nasty. (Joking) I think they should take it out. It’s a violation of our human rights. But I love it.'"
"Thoughts on Mayo attacking soon: 'He’ll attack in the Pyrenees for sure. He’ll attack Friday, he’ll attack tomorrow, because La Mongie is closer to the Basque Country than Plateau de Beille and that mountain will, the trees and landscape will be green but the roads will be orange with the supporters so, he will go tomorrow. At least I hope so.'
How nasty is Saturday’s stage:
'It’s very nasty, it’s very nasty. (Joking) I think they should take it out. It’s a violation of our human rights. But I love it.'"
I think LA will wait tomorrow and conserve energy for an attack on Saturday. Lance will go if Ullrich or Hamilton attacks but I only see Heras or Mayo or Basso attacking because their time is running out. Plus we are close to the Basque region which will Motivate the whole Euskatel team to attack for Mayo. Watch out for Levi too....
Kiss off Heras. There are at least 5-6 other mountain riders who stand a better chance. My guess for today - A Basque will win it. But there's a long pretty flat ride to the first climb.
My own, kill Lance strategy, would be for a coordinated, multi-team haul-ass sprint to the mountains with a couple of mountain men in tow. That would test USPS. Rabobank, Escatel, CSC and the Bakers to name a few all have 1-2 riders who could do this, if the teams are willing to make the sacrifice. If, for example, Pil, Jullich, Sastre and Voigt took off at the start, along with Rasmussen, Virenque, and some others like this, I'd get a little worried if i were USPS.
At any rate i look for a killer pace up to the first climb to stop just this. But i think if you want to beat Armstrong you have to do it a wild and crazy, coordinated way, because Lance and USPS are awesom, but conservative.
My own, kill Lance strategy, would be for a coordinated, multi-team haul-ass sprint to the mountains with a couple of mountain men in tow. That would test USPS. Rabobank, Escatel, CSC and the Bakers to name a few all have 1-2 riders who could do this, if the teams are willing to make the sacrifice. If, for example, Pil, Jullich, Sastre and Voigt took off at the start, along with Rasmussen, Virenque, and some others like this, I'd get a little worried if i were USPS.
At any rate i look for a killer pace up to the first climb to stop just this. But i think if you want to beat Armstrong you have to do it a wild and crazy, coordinated way, because Lance and USPS are awesom, but conservative.
Mayo is quoted by cyclingnews: "'I know that all the Basques will be in the mountains. I think that the difference will happen on Saturday. I'm not here to let the other people win. I'd rather win a stage than be fifth in the Tour.'" I think Mayo is gunning for Plateau de Beille, at least (possibly also for La Mongie), but it sounds like Plateau de Beille is appealing to him.
Mayo is gonna be hard to beat on the climb to La Mongie IMO. For those not lucky enough to get live coverage on TV, http://live.cyclingnews.com/ and http://www.eurosport.com are probably your best bet for 'as it happens commentary'.musette said:
This is sad for JU (who finishes with two of LA's domestiques) and Heras (who are below them) and Hamilton (losing almost 3'30"). Azevedo is showing how useful he can be.
Did you guys see how Hincapie pulled AFTER Beltran/Noval?! Wow. And Landis did a good job too. At one point in the mountains, LA has Noval, Beltran, Hincapie, Landis, Azevedo and Chechu. That's his whole team apart from Eki and Padrnos (who wouldn't be expected to be around at such times anyhow).
20 Jan Ullrich (Ger) T-Mobile Team 2.30
21 Jose Azevedo (Por) US Postal p/b Berry Floor
22 Michael Rogers (Aus) Quick Step-Davitamon
23 Jose Luis Rubiera (Spa) US Postal p/b Berry Floor
24 Igor Gonzalez de Galdeano (Spa) Liberty Seguros
25 Oscar Sevilla (Spa) Phonak Hearing Systems
26 Laurent Brochard (Fra) AG2R Prévoyance 2.37
27 José Enrique Gutierrez (Spa) Phonak Hearing Systems 2.41
28 Jérôme Pineau (Fra) Brioches La Boulangère 2.43
29 Roberto Heras Hernandez (Spa) Liberty Seguros 2.57
30 Juan Miguel Mercado (Spa) Quick Step-Davitamon
31 Michael Rasmussen (Den) Rabobank 3.02
32 Jakob Piil (Den) Team CSC 3.09
33 Santiago Perez (Spa) Phonak Hearing Systems 3.27
34 Tyler Hamilton (USA) Phonak Hearing Systems
Did you guys see how Hincapie pulled AFTER Beltran/Noval?! Wow. And Landis did a good job too. At one point in the mountains, LA has Noval, Beltran, Hincapie, Landis, Azevedo and Chechu. That's his whole team apart from Eki and Padrnos (who wouldn't be expected to be around at such times anyhow).
20 Jan Ullrich (Ger) T-Mobile Team 2.30
21 Jose Azevedo (Por) US Postal p/b Berry Floor
22 Michael Rogers (Aus) Quick Step-Davitamon
23 Jose Luis Rubiera (Spa) US Postal p/b Berry Floor
24 Igor Gonzalez de Galdeano (Spa) Liberty Seguros
25 Oscar Sevilla (Spa) Phonak Hearing Systems
26 Laurent Brochard (Fra) AG2R Prévoyance 2.37
27 José Enrique Gutierrez (Spa) Phonak Hearing Systems 2.41
28 Jérôme Pineau (Fra) Brioches La Boulangère 2.43
29 Roberto Heras Hernandez (Spa) Liberty Seguros 2.57
30 Juan Miguel Mercado (Spa) Quick Step-Davitamon
31 Michael Rasmussen (Den) Rabobank 3.02
32 Jakob Piil (Den) Team CSC 3.09
33 Santiago Perez (Spa) Phonak Hearing Systems 3.27
34 Tyler Hamilton (USA) Phonak Hearing Systems
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