Predictions for stage 17...



El Angliru

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Jul 18, 2010
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So what do you think is going to happen as the tour reaches its climax on the slopes of the Tourmalet? I must admit it seems the organizers have planned a great schedule this year - shaping it so that everything boils down to this final mountain stage, whilst keeping it interesting along the way (minus yesterday's dead stage).

My prediction: Schleck attacks repeatedly but can't shake Contador, probably burning himself out in the process. Sanchez and Menchov also keep his wheel. Menchov will probably surprise everyone with a major attack and win the stage, taking Contador with him.

So, at the end of the stage - 1. Contador, 2. Schleck, 3. Menchov

Oh and if Andy isn't on form in the time trial Menchov might bag second to boot.
 

gtm

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Jul 27, 2009
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Prediction:- Schleck drops Contador and gains about 1 minute & then on Saturday surprises us all with a blistering TT to take the MJ - it turns out crafty Riis has secretly had him in a wind tunnel throughout the off season & kept it on the QT.


Disclaimer:- I accept no responsibility or liability for any injury, loss or damage incurred as a result of any use or reliance of the above prediction :D
 

roadhouse

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Aug 2, 2009
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gtm said:
Prediction:- Schleck drops Contador and gains about 1 minute & then on Saturday surprises us all with a blistering TT to take the MJ -

Lance flies out of the gates, drops everyone like a bad habit, makes up over 36 minutes putting him in 1st with some time to spare and then wins the tt and wins best cyclist of our lifetime award on espn and all doping allegations are brought to a hault, Landis and Lemond both end up in federal prison for life for lying.

that's what i woudl like to see happen. :eek:

if not that then what gtm said, Schleck takes Contador.
 

gtm

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Jul 27, 2009
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roadhouse said:
Lance flies out of the gates, drops everyone like a bad habit, makes up over 36 minutes putting him in 1st with some time to spare and then wins the tt and wins best cyclist of our lifetime award on espn and all doping allegations are brought to a hault, Landis and Lemond both end up in federal prison for life for lying.

that's what i woudl like to see happen. :eek:

if not that then what gtm said, Schleck takes Contador.

Chaps with just the one testicle who attempt to take France 'by storm' generally come to a sticky end :D
 

jhuskey

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Oct 6, 2003
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I predict the pelton to be blow apart and a lot of pain will be experienced on the Tourlamet.
The sight of riders going off the back end will look like a human wood chipper.
 

roadhouse

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he's already taken France, and the world, by storm, 7.8 times to be exact.

what i would really like to see is Schleck and Armstrong bolt off the front on a breakway while Contador drops a chain and gets caught up in some wrecks, 8 of them to be exact...and then a pelican sh!ts on his head on live tv. :)
 

Andrija

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Feb 16, 2005
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Beating Contador now looks like mission impossible... Schleck will have to gain at least one and a half minutes (and that's optimistic). That's huge
In my opinion, Tourmalet may not be enough for sufficient gap before TT. Also, I'm not sure if Schleck can attack before Tourmalet and keep building up his advantage all the way to the finish line... Even with help of his team mates in eventual breakaway. But he has to try... It would be stupid and opposite to everything he speaks and we expect if he's given up.
Contador was talking about Tourmalet as the place where the race will be decided. He was preparing something for it too.
Realistic is to expect 30 seconds of difference... Maximum. Wishful thinking is 30 seconds of advantage on Schleck's side and time trial of his life.
I would like to see attack on lower slopes of Soulor. That's development which could bring lots off excitement.
 

mrfrogger

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Jul 26, 2007
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Well I'll be drinking beer in the afternoon at the pub and would laugh if Stuart O'Grady heabutted Contador in the head repeatedly, knocking him into a Pyrenean valley while Andy kicks on up the hill while dreaming of podium girls.

When I've sobered up, I'll start pontificating about questions of moral philosophy.

Whatever happens, I'm looking to seeing it (and not going to work for a change).
 

baker3

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Jul 13, 2009
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I think Schleck will get some time on AC, but I doubt he will get the 2 minutes he needs before the final time trial.
 

swampy1970

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Feb 3, 2008
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I predict a boring and predictable stage where....

Astana sit on the front to the top of the Soulor.

Saxo sit on the front from the bottom of the Soulor descent to mid way up the Tourmalet.Chris Sorenson will the be the last Saxo domestique to go pop, leaving Schleck and Contador. Schleck tries a few damp squib attacks... maybe a little more but nothing that looks epic.

The riders go to the team bus.

We hear yet another evenings worth of " *insert interviewees name here*, was Contador right in attacking Schleck when his chain fell off?" again...

Outside, it continues to rain ontop of the hills in France and somewhere a small child cries because he lost his free [email protected] that was given out at the Tour Caravan
 

steve

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Aug 12, 2001
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jhuskey said:
You left out a dog howls in the distance. Could be Cadel's dog.

Or perhaps some stray sheep crossing the road, it could happen :confused:
 

jhuskey

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Oct 6, 2003
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Ok, Schleck has to get whats left of his team organized and get ready to give it all.
 

swampy1970

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Feb 3, 2008
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So Fuglsang was the last guy and Sorensen was the next to last...

... not too far of what I thought would happen.

Time to wake up, that left me somewhat snoozy. At least next week I won't have to watch several hours of TV each night and hope for something to happen - it'll be back to a more interesting life.

Someone dig up Anquetil and stick his bones on a bike, unicycle racing down Alpe DHuez, clowns juggling on a tandem while riding through the tunnels descending the Laurtret or have people riding bikes with slick tires on a big huge water covered plastic merry-go-round trying to collect plastic balls, just like It's A Knockout years ago. I wonder what Stuart Hall is upto these days?

8 seconds aint a big lead, expect Saxo to try something en-masse during the stage to Bordeaux. It wouldn't take too much to believe that the Saxo train lead by Cancellara could put a world of hurt on the rest of the Tour teams, especially in the coastal areas around Bordeaux. Cross winds and a US Postal team time trial off the front back in 1999 is a perfect example of what they are going to have to try. Sure, they'd have to fight off not only Astana but also the sprinters teams of Lampre and HTC. Cervelo (especially Thor) wouldn't mind if Saxo took nearly all the points at the finish so they aint gonna chase.

Stranger things have happened than people puncturing in time trials... So it aint over yet.
 

slovakguy

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Mar 17, 2006
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that would make for some interesting action in the next stage. but will canc really put his chances at grabbing the tt victory in the bin for saxo?
 

jhuskey

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I am told that Cancellara has a cold. I expect he is wanting a stage in the TT. That's gonna make it harder on him and especially if he doesn't take it easy tomorrow.
 

swampy1970

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Feb 3, 2008
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slovakguy said:
that would make for some interesting action in the next stage. but will canc really put his chances at grabbing the tt victory in the bin for saxo?

It's not like Saxo doesn't have a stack of TT wins from Cancellara already... but that's not relevant.

A Tour win for the team trumps a stage win by a country mile (which is a little more than 1.602km for you metric folk :p ) Cancellara hasn't jumped ship yet to Schleckumburger team, so maybe this could be the last time he rides for a team that has a real chance for a rider to get the overall GC.
 

Andrija

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jhuskey said:
I am told that Cancellara has a cold. I expect he is wanting a stage in the TT. That's gonna make it harder on him and especially if he doesn't take it easy tomorrow.
Cancellara's results in long time trials at the end of the Tour aren't that briliant. Three weeks of racing seem to be taking a lot out of him.
This time trial is really one for specialists... Grabsch may do very well if he has something left in his legs.
I think Contador will want to prove he's worth of overall victory, but it doesn't look like his cup of tea.
It's going to be very interesting.
 

mrfrogger

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Jul 26, 2007
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slovakguy said:
that would make for some interesting action in the next stage. but will canc really put his chances at grabbing the tt victory in the bin for saxo?

Maybe, I could see it happening. Fabian seems to me to be pretty tight with the Schlecks. It won't work though. However, after seeing Spartacus' back to back wins on the cobbles and the way he's calmly destroyed every TT I've seen him ride this year, how can you bet against him for that TT?
 

slovakguy

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swampy1970 said:
It's not like Saxo doesn't have a stack of TT wins from Cancellara already... but that's not relevant.

A Tour win for the team trumps a stage win by a country mile (which is a little more than 1.602km for you metric folk :p ) Cancellara hasn't jumped ship yet to Schleckumburger team, so maybe this could be the last time he rides for a team that has a real chance for a rider to get the overall GC.

still don't see it shaking out this way. perhaps the remainder of saxo go forward for a.s., but i still think that canc will limit his effort in anticipation of the tt. additionally, if he doesn't work for a.s. (and i don't think he's been linked to the luxemburger team to come), he really won't be burning any bridges since he'd probably go to a team with a legitimate g.c. candidate (bmc-sorry, footon) should he leave saxo (and i've already forgotten their new primary sponsor's name). as for the greater glory in having a rider win the yellow, they already have sastre's. as for whether there is any glory in an individual stage win to be had by canc, i'd hazard a bet that f.c. would really like to have everything available for his individual glories in time trialling since he's probably never likely to vie for the g.c. himself.

besides, all a.c. really would need to do is suck wheel again and now you've lost the yellow and any chance f.c. would have had at the tt.

if saxo and riis are really serious about the yellow, then they will need to take the gloves off, throw all protocol to the wind and attack all the way to paris.