tcklyde said:
Zabel doesn't have any lead out men. And even if he did, it still wouldn't matter. Ullrich has plenty of men for the mountains, and plenty for the flats. Yes, it would be an issue if T-Mobile wasted energy chasing down attacks on flat stages in order to set Zabel up, but how often have we seen that in the last couple of years? And as for the whole wasted energy theory, I don't see anyone knocking CSC for sending Sastre out on breaks.
As for TT, Zabel is at least as good as Padrnos. So again, what's the detraction?
Zabel is not as strong as Padrnos on TTT; give me a break.
-- From 2004 USPS official bio, 2003 TdF role: "It was more of the same at the Tour de France, with Padrnos playing a key role in the team time trial victory..."
http://www.uspsprocycling.com/teamfile/04profile_padrnos.htm
-- From 2005 DC official bio, 2004 TdF role: "At the Tour de France, Padrnos did an excellent job in the first week, riding alongside Lance Armstrong through the rainy first week and turning in a solid effort in the team's victory in the team time trial."
http://team.discovery.com/bios/padrnos.html
Second, it is not clear that Padrnos would be on the DC TdF squad, which I think will be the following:
LA
Ace
Chechu
Triki
Noval
Eki
Hincapie
Popo
Either Salvodelli or Padrnos (Padrnos only if Paolo is too tired after the Giro; this is hinted at by Paolo's indication in a cyclingnews interview that Padrnos will be helping Paolo in the Giro and that Paolo himself may ride the TdF if he is not too fatigued. That Paolo is preferable is also reinforced by the continuing cap on TTT gains, depending on placement position and not actual time gained. One of Padrnos' main reasons for being on the TdF team was for the TTT)
Separately, the comparison is not whether Zabel is as strong as any person on DC, but whether there is another person on TM who could better help JU on TTT. For example, Zabel may or may not be stronger in TTT than Manuel Beltran (although it must be said Beltran has improved in TTT since joining USPS/DC). But that doesn't say anything about whether Beltran is more valuable to LA than Zabel is to JU, obviously.
Finally on this point, Padrnos is a helper on the flats. Zabel is not doing the work as much of a flats domestique; he is trying for points for the green jersey and is not flats domestique in the way that Padrnos is. Also, Padrnos is better in the mountains than Zabel, although neither is good.
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That JU has some climbers to assist doesn't mean he couldn't use more; or take on a stronger flats domestique.
Sastre goes out on breaks because he and Basso are both trying to place high in GC. They are the CSC GC hopefuls. So Sastre tries to go out on breaks so he can gain time on his GC rivals, and also to try and win a stage. CSC knows that it doesn't have too much hope for overall GC win (even with Basso, unless his ITT improves considerably), and therefore has to "hedge" more with stage wins. Sastre IS the GC hopeful on CSC, together with Basso. So it's normal for the GC hopeful to try and gain time on his rivals. Especially when the person (like Sastre) is not a master at ITT (not that Sastre is poor in that discipline; he's just not particularly good relative to the key GC combatants).
Obviously, Sastre is typically permitted to go on those long breakways after he has lost a lot of time to LA and company. At that point, even if Sastre were trying to help Basso, it is sometimes useful on mountain stages to have a teammate as a matter of strategy, so that they could drop back to help as needed or so that the second person on the road for the team could join the leading teammate and both could gain more time on people from other team who are behind in the stage. So having Sastre in front has many potential benefits.
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When people help Zabel, though, that is wasted energy for the GC. Zabel will obviously never have a chance on GC.
Zabel would be on the TdF team for one or more of the following reasons:
1) Team wants to "hedge" with Zabel trying for stage wins and the green jersey. The team is worried that JU is not going to win the GC, so has to try and hedge with other "wins".
2) Team feels Zabel has done a lot for the team, especially when JU was at Coast/Bianchi. Therefore, nobody (except Kloden) is willing to indicate that Zabel shouldn't be on the TdF team.
3) Zabel is a very popular cyclist in Germany. The team doesn't want to incur fan wrath by excluding Zabel.
And thank goodness Zabel doesn't have any leadout men in the TdF, or else JU would be even worse off, with two spots occupied.
It is evident that Zabel is a deadweight to JU in the TdF; a hurtful influence. For JU to have max chances of winning the GC, Zabel should be excluded from the TdF team.
