Rasmussen a GC Chance?



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The Double Zero

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Does anyone rate Rasmussen as a genuine GC chance?, There is only 109km of ITT in total, with a lot of mountains still to come. Could he ride everyone off his wheels again getting big mins and hold on?..
 

Pas Souci

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The Double Zero said:
Does anyone rate Rasmussen as a genuine GC chance?, There is only 109km of ITT in total, with a lot of mountains still to come. Could he ride everyone off his wheels again getting big mins and hold on?
Yeah, no doubt. He has three minutes basically one everyone, and i reckon he can hold 4mins in the TTs, just. I think it's all about the Pyrennes for him. The past three years he has attacked in the Alps and won, but no doubt he can climb. He said he wanted yellow, now hes got, and yesterday he, " i'd be stupid not to defend it ". Honestly, if he holds this lead tommorow, he may be the first since Pantani. Also, he has the team.
 

ad9898

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I doubt it to be honest, he will be carefully watched from now on, unless he's very strong. On the other hand if he is strong enough, after yesterdays' pitiful exploits by the so called "favourites" who knows.

I mean look at Evans, to mention him and favourites in the same sentence after yesterday is laughable.

All i can say is doping must have had a huge impact on the tour in previous years when you have the likes of Moreau "attacking", when in previous years he was "average" in the mountains and to think he's 36 now.
 

Frihed89

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Rasmussen says he will "defend" the yellow jersey. If he does that in the typical manner, the answer is: no, he stands very little chance of winning the GC. To win the Tour, he must destroy his mountain-riding competition by attacking them hard enough and often enough so that they have no legs and will left to attack him and, in the process, build up an unsurmountable and demoralizing lead for the TTs ahead.

Can one man do this alone? Any man? Dope or no dope? Without a team? Will any other team help?

Frank Schelck can win the tour if Rasmssen can not.

Both are my outside shots.
 

Powerful Pete

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He has a shot at it if he can continue to attack and put time between himself and the other 'hopefuls' in the remaining mountain stages. I do not think he can do it if he simply rides with the boys (given his, ehm... TT skills).
 

Cobblestones

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With 109km time trial to come, I guess he would need an 11 min advantage from mountain stages over Kloden, possibly Evans, Piti, and Menchov and somewhat less over other contenders. I think his chances are marginal at present.
 

Wayne666

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ad9898 said:
All i can say is doping must have had a huge impact on the tour in previous years when you have the likes of Moreau "attacking", when in previous years he was "average" in the mountains and to think he's 36 now.
What seems inexplicable is how come, assuming Moreau is clean and his resurgence the last couple of years is due to a cleaner peloton, is how come he TTs relatively poorly now and climbs well?

There was a time when he was almost on par with Ullrich and Armstrong in the TTs.
 

Tubbs

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Rasmussen will neet to put more time in tomorrow if he wants to win the overall. He knows damn well he doesn’t TT as well as the likes of Vino and Kloden. Moreau has a decent TT if he really puts himself into it. Menchov and possibly even Sastre can TT better. But there is a heck of a lot more climbing left in this tour.



Rabobank may have a double threat on their hands. The favourites will most certainly have to attack Rasmussen and in doing so, they will drag Menchov with them who will most certainly pounce if Rasmussen should falter. The danger man in the whole bunch is Contador. If Bruyneel is smart, he wil unleash him because Leipheimer is running out time. If he wants to win this Tour, Levi has to stamp his authority and do it soon. I don’t think he has the horsepower to do it.
 

SaintAndrew

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while i certainly think the chick COULD win, i don't see him as having a very big shot without a big eff up by the peloton, and they would have to royally eff up to give him a chance. but it's really hard for us to know his true climbing ability, since he's usually been about a bog day or two in the mounatins to grab the KOTM jersey in previous tours. a pure climber can win the Tour though, no doubt.
 

Trev_S

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Nah, I don't think so.
He can hold Yellow up until Stage 13's TT.

He could try and gain time tonight (stage 9) but with 40km's of descending he'd have to have a very big lead at the summit of the Galibier. Unlikely given his efforts on stage 7. He won't be as fresh as some.

Stage 9 won't really suit Rasmussan so maybe it would be best for him to just mark the others, conserve & recover. Ride a max all out effort in the TT to limit his loss there, loose the GC lead, then go on the attack again in the pyranees hill top finishes, stage 14 & 16. The catch for him would be could whether he could do that successfully as he is going to need anything between 6 & 8 mins lead before the final TT to have a chance.

I can't see him winning.
 

Klodifan

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Trev_S said:
Nah, I don't think so.
He can hold Yellow up until Stage 13's TT.

He could try and gain time tonight (stage 9) but with 40km's of descending he'd have to have a very big lead at the summit of the Galibier. Unlikely given his efforts on stage 7. He won't be as fresh as some.

Stage 9 won't really suit Rasmussan so maybe it would be best for him to just mark the others, conserve & recover. Ride a max all out effort in the TT to limit his loss there, loose the GC lead, then go on the attack again in the pyranees hill top finishes, stage 14 & 16. The catch for him would be could whether he could do that successfully as he is going to need anything between 6 & 8 mins lead before the final TT to have a chance.

I can't see him winning.
and I don't want to see him winning.
 

Gregers

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He needs another 3 to 4 minutes at least from the mountain stages and he's going to be sat on. He could gain most of this time with one super exploit like Sunday, or he could slip away to gain odd minutes at the end of climbs in the style of Armstrong/Big Mig and Mayo on Sunday. However, this all pre-supposes that he is super strong and ignores the fact that in his previous Tours he never managed to ride consistently well on every mountain stage. This might have been due to the fact that he never really had designs on the big prize, preferring instead to go for spectacular, strength sapping, stage wins that garnered him lots of polka dot points. If he measures his efforts more astutely this time he might just do it despite the limited number of mountain top finishes still available. There has been no evidence of super climbing strength from his main rivals to suggest that any one individual might be capable of neutralising him every day.
 

Tubbs

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he put a solid defence of the yellow jersey today. He does have half decent helpers afterall. (Boogerd and Dekker) I still think he needs to take more time in the mountains. Maybe he won't lose as much time on saturday's TT as one might think. At about the 38km mark there is a Cat 4 climb. Everyone is expecting him to lose gobs of time on saturday, which very well may happen, but if he can limit those losses, he will be tough to beat.
 

IH8LANCE

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Tubbs said:
he put a solid defence of the yellow jersey today. He does have half decent helpers afterall. (Boogerd and Dekker) I still think he needs to take more time in the mountains. Maybe he won't lose as much time on saturday's TT as one might think. At about the 38km mark there is a Cat 4 climb. Everyone is expecting him to lose gobs of time on saturday, which very well may happen, but if he can limit those losses, he will be tough to beat.
He needs more time. A lot more time. It's not that Rasmussen doesn't excel on the TTs --- he's flat out horrible. He finished 9 minutes behind the winner in last year's stage 19 ITT, and 6 minutes behind in the first ITT. In this year's prologue, a mere 8K, he lost over a minute, finishing in 166th place. In other words, he's likely to lose at least 3-6 minutes, in my estimation, to those who challenge him for the GC -- in each ITT. He needs six minutes minimum cushion to even have a chance, and they're not going to let him go again like they did on Sunday. He'll have to ride them off his wheel more than once, and I just don't see that happening.
 

Flyer

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Frihed89 said:
Rasmussen says he will "defend" the yellow jersey. If he does that in the typical manner, the answer is: no, he stands very little chance of winning the GC. To win the Tour, he must destroy his mountain-riding competition by attacking them hard enough and often enough so that they have no legs and will left to attack him and, in the process, build up an unsurmountable and demoralizing lead for the TTs ahead.

Can one man do this alone? Any man? Dope or no dope? Without a team? Will any other team help?

Frank Schelck can win the tour if Rasmssen can not.

Both are my outside shots.
eww
 
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