Rates cuts are coming! It's June 25, 2003



Status
Not open for further replies.
We'll see.

Hein-Verbruggen said:
Not so Cranky. Forest fires cause property damage. Evacuate or you may suffer a harsh BBQ. Heavy rains may cause floods too. Get a raft.

Ignorance and denial are unhelpful (as in doping crimes too), action and awareness may save lives.

The credit markets are in paralysis mode. Until ECB and US fed offer up more steroids, IV feeds, free money gifts and lower interest rates--real estate values will continue to tank, sales will decline to zilch, unemployment will grow, and stagnation & recession would then follow. (already happening)

Ignore the past 30-day T-Bill yield spread EKG at your own peril.

Today's news (lagging indicator) is that 1% of all USA mortgages are now in forclosure---a new historical record.

In addition, 5% of all US mortgages are presently delinquent (pmts past due), also a new hostrical record. These are NOT BULLISH economic indictors.

T-Bill yields are in a wild EKG fluctuation, revealing a gravely ill patient.

Often times---the obvious clues are a warning. recession is near the longer the central bankers dilly dally with the inescapable rate reductions. They WILL lower rates, but sooner is better than later.

ECB will LOWER rates too. All the world benefits from the mighty USA consumption, credit driven machine, blood-for-oil, and financial hedge fund black boxes of private equity capital. All world economies shadow the USA, Asia included.

Petro dollars = solient green
 
Yes we will Cranky and we are:

Today's news is:

4,000 FTE jobs lost in August (that is NOT bullish) 110,000 new jobs were expected so the negative news helped explained why the Dow Jones tanked again.

Still awaiting a September 18 fed rate cut!
 
From USA Today (9-9-07):

"Lenders are collapsing, home sales and prices in many markets are falling and lots of investors are panicking. Not Warren Buffett. He recently told a group of his real estate managers in Omaha, Neb., that he sees this as a time of opportunity."

Mmmm.....seems some minds are thinking alike. And others would prefer to lead the crowd. Now who do I feel more comfortable thinking alike? The self-appointed 24/7 Sage of Cycling Forums, or the Sage of Omaha who has accumulated investment capital in the markets that makes him the 2nd richest man in the world.
 
Warren Buffet would NOT touch an empty housing tract with a 2,000 meter pole, not even to protect his silly & struggling home furnsihing store chain RC Willey's. Don't buy Warren's bottom feeder trash talk. He got it WRONG on Microsoft. Mr Softy can buy his tired corn-fed act anytime.

Even Jean Claude Trichet is getting on board today. (no more rate INCREASES despite Lim's opinion) and is softening his 'inflation trash talk'. Jean will be LOWERING ECN rate soon---as I predicted he would as he defends Bernie's lower rates and junk bond 'open market' collateral purchaces' junk-for-free-money steroids. Greenspan's steroid policies are set in stone.

Much like the oil producers will be forced to INCREASE production--and thereby LOWER oil prices.

Look for DEFLATION in the world economy, cheap money, stiff underwriting, and for the rich to get richer off this latest Wall Street bail out plan.


Crankyfeet said:
From USA Today (9-9-07):

"Lenders are collapsing, home sales and prices in many markets are falling and lots of investors are panicking. Not Warren Buffett. He recently told a group of his real estate managers in Omaha, Neb., that he sees this as a time of opportunity."

Mmmm.....seems some minds are thinking alike. And others would prefer to lead the crowd. Now who do I feel more comfortable thinking alike? The self-appointed 24/7 Sage of Cycling Forums, or the Sage of Omaha who has accumulated investment capital in the markets that makes him the 2nd richest man in the world.
 
Hein-Verbruggen said:
Warren Buffet would NOT touch an empty housing tract with a 2,000 meter pole, not even to protect his silly & struggling home furnsihing store chain RC Willey's. Don't buy Warren's bottom feeder trash talk. He got it WRONG on Microsoft. Mr Softy can buy his tired corn-fed act anytime.

Even Jean Claude Trichet is getting on board today. (no more rate INCREASES despite Lim's opinion) and is softening his 'inflation trash talk'. Jean will be LOWERING ECN rate soon---as I predicted he would as he defends Bernie's lower rates and junk bond 'open market' collateral purchaces' junk-for-free-money steroids. Greenspan's steroid policies are set in stone.

Much like the oil producers will be forced to INCREASE production--and thereby LOWER oil prices.

Look for DEFLATION in the world economy, cheap money, stiff underwriting, and for the rich to get richer off this latest Wall Street bail out plan.
Too much to answer here. Not even worth it. Short term interest rate moves are about the easiest things to predict. They are discounted by the street almost every time before they are announced. Surprizes are rare.

OK Heiny, here's the challenge. You name any market you want to make a trade on and I will happily go the opposite way. Heck, I don't even have to have an opinion. I have had experience trading against an egotistical know-nothing like you once before I retired and it was the easiest money I ever made. Heck, I'll even give you the high of the day for entry price if you want to go short. I won't even consider that you would already be losing a bundle on oil. Just put your hypothetical money where your mouth is, Mr. "I'm bigger than Warren Buffett". $30,000,000,000 donated to the Gates foundation says you are an envious cynical moron who longs for the day when he can be considered a "Guru", when, after 16 attempts, he predicts a big bad bear market, ala Marty Zweig (1987). And loses his shirt in it.

The only unfortunate thing is you won't have any real money exposed (anyone with your level of psychological paranoi/neurosis and cynicism IMO has no significant assets worth risking) which makes it a little easier for you to ride your losses.

Oh and da oil companies will be forced to increase production you reckon. By whom? Don't you think that already would have happened if it were possible. And the analogy of the institution providing money supply to doping is ludicrous. Or is that just another way you have found to tie-in your hobbyhorse phrase.

Oh and we're going to see a Global Meltdown with commodity and asset depreciation. It will be "brutal". But the rich will get richer. Huh??? Sounds to me like you use to work in a bank, on bank salary, and just drooled in envy at the fat bonuses the investment bankers were making on Wall Street.

You need to find a real soap box and go talk in Hyde Park. Its your best chance of feeding your appetite for public applause.
 
Crank : European Central Bank Sept 07 Monetary Committee decided to leave interest rates at the same level.
The Bank of England last week also agreed to maintain their rates at the same levels.

As I told Hein before - this "crisis" has not and will not deflect monetary policy here in Europe and Britain.
The interbank interest rate is the only interest rate which has moved in Britain and Europe- and that has moved upward.
Hein's spoofing.

The Fed on the other hand - it's in a bind.
It's damned if it leaves rates as high as it has but if it starts to drop rates then
the Fed is being seen to bail out reckless borrowers and reckless lenders.
 
limerickman said:
Crank : European Central Bank Sept 07 Monetary Committee decided to leave interest rates at the same level.
The Bank of England last week also agreed to maintain their rates at the same levels.

As I told Hein before - this "crisis" has not and will not deflect monetary policy here in Europe and Britain.
The interbank interest rate is the only interest rate which has moved in Britain and Europe- and that has moved upward.
Hein's spoofing.

The Fed on the other hand - it's in a bind.
It's damned if it leaves rates as high as it has but if it starts to drop rates then
the Fed is being seen to bail out reckless borrowers and reckless lenders.
I agree Lim. And am aware of The Hein (il)logic (see my ref. to Hein logic in post#15: Rates not going down in Europe = Rates going down in Europe).

I'm not sure the Fed bailout label is something that they are unduly worried about. The Fed has had a history of bailing industry out to protect the US economy. It reassures them that they're powerful enough (like the forgiving father) in the scheme of today's financial world.

I think the biggest threat is either them failing to protect the currency (esp if Europe maintains higher interest rates) or perhaps a rising commodity index (inflation) coincident with a deflating property market and need in the financial sector for cheap money (as I post October crude is hitting $78 a barrel). Then they're in a quandry. The LT Bond market though doesn't seem to see this as much of a risk with bond prices going up.

However this is all just speculation. For all I know, the bullish effects of lowering rates (in the US) could spark a surge in the currency.

IMO this problem is not being ignored. I think it will be mitigated and contained. Everybody is aware of it. Its not the problem that people are underestimating. Go back and look at the S&P throughout the Savings and Loan crisis in the late eighties. Something I equate this too. I presume Hein is referring to a Global Meltdown that affects stock markets. I just want him to go on the record with something measurable (in $$$). Otherwise he will pull a "Guru" trick of calling something, which when it happens in two and a half years, will be saying "I told you so". Kinda like me saying there is going to be big hurricane hit the US and then when one finally does in 2010, I say "I told you so".
 
Lim: The US fed is presently bailing out Wall Street bankers and their Hedge Funds, NOT retail borrowers. Not yet anyway, if ever.

By June 2008, we will be in yet another "I told you so crisis", not just in the USA, but the whole planet--including Chinese made Matle toys.

Jean Claude Trichet will LOWER ECB rates and follow the US fed and defend the dollar (Treasury sales). Look for a 25 bp rate cut on Septemeber 18, followed by 12-18 months of additional rates cuts.

Trichet has already engaged in quiet 'open market transactions' to buy junk commercial paper (CDOs) from his sick member banks. With much more to come. Nothing at all like Lim's theme of inflation fear. Just the opposite.

Hey Cranky, you have picked the wrong horse to bet against here. You are way out of your depth. I never apologize for being correct which is my legacy at CF.

You will go the same way that Jan Ulrich fans went---down the tubes in a grand flames of denial. The Ulrich doping matter parallels the ECB. A day late and a Euro short.

btw: Did you know that Italian soccer fans actually believe that soccer is clean whilst cycling is dirty? The media can fool almost anyone.
 
So what do you want to take as a position in the market today? I haven't got time for gutless "the world is coming to an end" blow-hards. Name your call in the markets and we'll see the real financial results of your shotgun prophecies. Usually its close to a 50/50 bet, but with the revelations about yourself you have provided, it will be close to 90/10 taking the opposite side to your market calls.

Put-up or shut-up windbag.


Hein-Verbruggen said:
Lim: The US fed is presently bailing out Wall Street bankers and their Hedge Funds, NOT retail borrowers. Not yet anyway, if ever.

By June 2008, we will be in yet another "I told you so crisis", not just in the USA, but the whole planet--including Chinese made Matle toys.

Jean Claude Trichet will LOWER ECB rates and follow the US fed and defend the dollar (Treasury sales). Look for a 25 bp rate cut on Septemeber 18, followed by 12-18 months of additional rates cuts.

Trichet has already engaged in quiet 'open market transactions' to buy junk commercial paper (CDOs) from his sick member banks. With much more to come. Nothing at all like Lim's theme of inflation fear. Just the opposite.

Hey Cranky, you have picked the wrong horse to bet against here. You are way out of your depth. I never apologize for being correct which is my legacy at CF.

You will go the same way that Jan Ulrich fans went---down the tubes in a grand flames of denial. The Ulrich doping matter parallels the ECB. A day late and a Euro short.

btw: Did you know that Italian soccer fans actually believe that soccer is clean whilst cycling is dirty? The media can fool almost anyone.
 
Lim: Gold at $721 (up $60 in the last few weeks), Oil at $78+, Grains going up. US Currency on the precipice. It will be interesting to see how Bernanke plays this one. The policy since 1980 has been to fight inflation at all costs. IMO European monetary policy is not even worth considering as mildly poignant in the context of Bernanke's tightrope walk at the moment. Certainly the stock market is expecting further IR cuts in the US. IYO, how does Europe see a further weakening dollar outlook against the Euro? Is it something they are concerned about?

On another note: Ireland struggled somewhat against Namibia but the first game's always hard. Next game looks tough as well with Georgia a dark-horse party-spoiler (and doing OK vs Arg. at half-time).

On yet another note: Does your username reflect that you are from County Limerick. Both my Grandfathers' ancestors came from Limerick.
 
Yawn, a typical Jan Ulrich fan---always a loser, even in unemployment.

I have been very steady with my predictions:

1) all pro cyclist use illegal drugs (it's required)
2) Nike underwrites sporting fraud and abuses Cancer for sneaker marketing
3) Fraud, Hedge Funds/Banks, lack of underwriting rules blew up the credit markets. The commercial paper market is in paralysis and must be joted into life. Financial stocks are in free fall.
4) real estate valuations are all headed downward
5) mortgage forclosures will reach a new record high soon. (already have in the USA)
6) interest rates will decline (ECB will lower rates soon)
7) OPEC oil production will be increased--so as to lower gas prices
8) Disney-ESPN can convince most fools that football is clean and safe
9) MLB uses corked bats as well as steroids
10) the NBA employs steroid circus freaks.

Cranky---you are indeed very cranky.





Crankyfeet said:
So what do you want to take as a position in the market today? I haven't got time for gutless "the world is coming to an end" blow-hards. Name your call in the markets and we'll see the real financial results of your shotgun prophecies. Usually its close to a 50/50 bet, but with the revelations about yourself you have provided, it will be close to 90/10 taking the opposite side to your market calls.

Put-up or shut-up windbag.
 
So what market do you want to trade? Put up or shut up. Most of your so-called predictions aren't predictions at all. They are presently happening. Stock Market in free-fall hey? Someone forgot to tell the market. It was up 1.3% today. Foreclosures hitting new highs - no prediction there, already happening. ST Interest rates coming down - no prediction there already happening and expected by the whole investment community. Real Estate valuations coming down - yep that's what's already happening in some states. Oil production increase - yep already announced in Vienna. The market didn't seem to care though - it was already discounted.

How are you going to make any money out of these Wall Street Journal Headlines you spout as your own opinion? Tell me which market you want to take a position in. Cause an already discounted viewpoint is valueless in the market.

Or don't you know how to trade?

And stay on point Heiny Ferbuggerin. Save the "Lance and Nike are too rich for me" drivel for another totally unrelated thread topic.


Hein-Verbruggen said:
Yawn, a typical Jan Ulrich fan---always a loser, even in unemployment.

I have been very steady with my predictions:

1) all pro cyclist use illegal drugs (it's required)
2) Nike underwrites sporting fraud and abuses Cancer for sneaker marketing
3) Fraud, Hedge Funds/Banks, lack of underwriting rules blew up the credit markets. The commercial paper market is in paralysis and must be joted into life. Financial stocks are in free fall.
4) real estate valuations are all headed downward
5) mortgage forclosures will reach a new record high soon. (already have in the USA)
6) interest rates will decline (ECB will lower rates soon)
7) OPEC oil production will be increased--so as to lower gas prices
8) Disney-ESPN can convince most fools that football is clean and safe
9) MLB uses corked bats as well as steroids
10) the NBA employs steroid circus freaks.

Cranky---you are indeed very cranky.
 
Real estate has far to fall. Nowhere near the bottom yet. Many hedge funds still to blow up too. Countrywide still needs more cash--BOA pants Angelo last week, still they must court Citi, JP-Morgan/Chase and others.

Avoid Pfizer but deal in Zoloft, Prozac, Lithium, steroids and sell them to disturbed consumers.

That is the same as owning a life raft dealership in a flood.

Many shortsighted people, such as yourself, will wait too long, others however, will deal now. And that is the market--not Jan Ulrich fans.


Crankyfeet said:
So what market do you want to trade? Put up or shut up. Most of your so-called predictions aren't predictions at all. They are presently happening. Stock Market in free-fall hey? Someone forgot to tell the market. It was up 1.3% today. Foreclosures hitting new highs - no prediction there, already happening. ST Interest rates coming down - no prediction there already happening and expected by the whole investment community. Real Estate valuations coming down - yep that's what's already happening in some states.

How are you going to make any money out of these Wall Street Journal Headlines you spout as your own opinion? Tell me which market you want to take a position in. Cause an already discounted viewpoint is valueless in the market.

Or don't you know how to trade?

And stay on point Heiny Ferbuggerin. Save the "Lance and Nike are too rich for me" drivel for another totally unrelated thread topic.
 
Put up or shut up. Tell me which commodity you want to buy or sell today on the Stock or Futures Market. You want to short oil. Just tell me so. You want to short stocks or bonds, just let me know. Countrywide's at $16.88 down from $40 in June. You want to short it from here. Its going bankrupt right? Just let me know.

Otherwise its just waffle.



Hein-Verbruggen said:
Real estate has far to fall. Nowhere near the bottom yet. Many hedge funds still to blow up too. Countrywide still needs more cash--BOA pants Angelo last week, still they must court Citi, JP-Morgan/Chase and others.

Avoid Pfizer but deal in Zoloft, Prozac, Lithium, steroids and sell them to disturbed consumers.

That is the same as owning a life raft dealership in a flood.

Many shortsighted people, such as yourself, will wait too long, others however, will deal now. And that is the market--not Jan Ulrich fans.
 
Hein-Verbruggen said:
Lim: The US fed is presently bailing out Wall Street bankers and their Hedge Funds, NOT retail borrowers. Not yet anyway, if ever.

Hein - we have had two meetings of the ECB since the liquidity "crisis" : no movement in interest rates.

I told you earlier - read the August and September statements of the monetary policy committees of the ECB and the Bank of England, instead of waffling Hein.



Hein-Verbruggen said:
By June 2008, we will be in yet another "I told you so crisis", not just in the USA, but the whole planet--including Chinese made Matle toys.

Ah, the fudge.

Last month you told us that worldwide interest rates were going down.
The BoE and the ECB haven't touched interest rates in their last two monetary policy meetings.
In fact Trichet has said that the ECB will be looking to perhaps increase rates.
before Christmas 2007.

Now you say rates will go up by June 2008.
This is like your "reheats" last month when you tried to tell us about issues already in the public domain.






Hein-Verbruggen said:
Jean Claude Trichet will LOWER ECB rates
.

He hasn't and he won't.



Hein-Verbruggen said:
Hey Cranky, you have picked the wrong horse to bet against here. You are way out of your depth. I never apologize for being correct which is my legacy at CF.

You've been singularly incorrect in this present manifestation and your previous manifestations, Hein.


Hein-Verbruggen said:
btw: Did you know that Italian soccer fans actually believe that soccer is clean whilst cycling is dirty? The media can fool almost anyone.

If I want information - I'll ask you about the 49'ers.
 
Crankyfeet said:
So what market do you want to trade? Put up or shut up. Most of your so-called predictions aren't predictions at all. They are presently happening. Stock Market in free-fall hey? Someone forgot to tell the market. It was up 1.3% today. Foreclosures hitting new highs - no prediction there, already happening. ST Interest rates coming down - no prediction there already happening and expected by the whole investment community. Real Estate valuations coming down - yep that's what's already happening in some states. Oil production increase - yep already announced in Vienna. The market didn't seem to care though - it was already discounted.

Exactly.
Nothing which he has stated here is new information.


Crankyfeet said:
How are you going to make any money out of these Wall Street Journal Headlines you spout as your own opinion? Tell me which market you want to take a position in. Cause an already discounted viewpoint is valueless in the market.

Agreed.
 
Crankyfeet said:
I'm not sure the Fed bailout label is something that they are unduly worried about. The Fed has had a history of bailing industry out to protect the US economy. It reassures them that they're powerful enough (like the forgiving father) in the scheme of today's financial world.

The Fed's is faced with a different set of issues compared to the ECB and BoE, at present.

As I understand it - the Fed is in an invidious position.
The US economy is beset by an increase in mortgage foreclosures.
In addition because the US economy is also dependent on continued consumer spending, it (Fed) feels that it has to drop rates in order to stall foreclosures and to keep consumer spending up.
The Fed has concerns about possible recession, if rates are maintained at a high (relative) level.

In Europe and Britain, economic activity has been expanding over the past 18 - 24 months.
The downside to this expansion is inflation.
The ECB started moving rates up during this period because Germany and France (and the rest of Europe) show serious signs of inflationary pressure.
Ditto Britain.
Inflation is the main concern here in Europe.
 
Europe and Asia live via credit and a healthy credit system. That system died last month. I was paying attention. Europe will trend downward unless and until this crisis is treated with massive steroids (lower rates). DEFLATION and recession are Europe's chief problem as of last August. Look forward, not in a foggy rear view mirror.

Today Ben Bernanke lectured Bundesbank--Ben was reminding Lim that all central bankers must participate in rate reductions. (US dollar needs help)
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3683270/

And Lim---I said all central banks will LOWER rates over many months. (one year to two years of rate cuts) That will occure as I wrote and as Jean Claude Trichet indicated in Italy yesterday. Rate hikes are OVER.

By June 2008 rates will be much lower than today and all this a great news for steroid-based economic action. Wall Street will pay big bonuses again.

I am quite correct about the credit crisis we are in. It is historic and ECB cannpt dance out of this mess w/o drastic action, sooner or later.

btw: the Dow up today on little volume. Countrywide fell below the BOA option price of $18 down to $16. The DOW is headed lower until ECB cuts rates.

Just you watch.

ps: I won't give financial advice to people living in a media bubble.
 
Hein-Verbruggen said:
Today Ben Bernanke lectured Bundesbank--Ben was reminding Lim that all central bankers must participate in rate reductions. (US dollar needs help)
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3683270/
.

Bernie can lecture whomever he wishes to - fact is the ECB maintained rates at the August and Sept meetings.
As did the BoE.

Bernie's lowered his country's rates : he had no choice.



Hein-Verbruggen said:
And Lim---I said all central banks will LOWER rates over many months. (one year to two years of rate cuts)

A few weeks ago you said all rates would be dropping NOW.
They haven't.
BoE and ECB have keep rates at the same level 6 weeks after this "crisis" story broke.

Keep fudging.

Hein-Verbruggen said:
I am quite correct about the credit crisis we are in. It is historic.

You're not.


Hein-Verbruggen said:
btw: the Dow up today on little volume. Countrywide fell below the BOA option price of $18 down to $16. The DOW is headed lower until ECB cuts rates.

Big deal.
 
Hein-Verbruggen said:
Europe and Asia live via credit and a healthy credit system. That system died last month. I was paying attention. Europe will trend downward unless and until this crisis is treated with massive steroids (lower rates). DEFLATION and recession are Europe's chief problem as of last August. Look forward, not in a foggy rear view mirror.

Wrong and wrong again.

Read what Trichet actually said - instead of waffling.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...ED29A-0E2E-4955-911E-ACE31D4F37EF}&siteid=rss


LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The European Central Bank, on a day in which it injected $57 billion (42 billion euros) into the banking system, held interest rates steady Thursday, opting to wait for markets to settle down before a further rate tightening.

The ECB, which sets interest rates in the 13 countries that use the euro as their currency, kept rates at 4%, as economists had increasingly expected following a rocky August in debt and equities markets. The decision was unanimous.

Jean-Claude Trichet, the ECB's president, said the central bank needs to gather more data before making any decisions, even though there are indications that the fundamentals of the European economy are "strong."
"We have a high level of uncertainty," the central banker said at a press conference.

The European Central Bank had never before held interest rates in the month after Trichet had declared that the ECB was watching monetary developments with "strong vigilance."

The ECB has been gradually raising rates from the level of 2% since December 2005.

But Trichet has always insisted that the central bank never "pre-committed" on interest rates.
And he still maintained a somewhat hawkish posture on Thursday, saying how important it was to anchor inflationary expectations and that rate policy was still "accommodative."
"The dis-anchoring of inflationary expectations would be the worst thing to do in the current situation," he said.


But Trichet didn't repeat the phrase "strong vigilance" as he did in August.
"Not to mention 'strong vigilance' was a bit of a surprise, but as we have learned over the past four weeks, the power of those code words has weakened," said Rainer Guntermann, an economist at Dresdner Kleinwort.

In response to spiking overnight and three-month rates that banks lend to each other, the ECB has been pouring billions of euros into the banking system, including Thursday's one-day tender operation. Trichet also announced that it would undertake another longer-duration tender.

Trichet said he was "very proud" of those actions and made pains to differentiate between the money markets in the short term and monetary policy for the longer term.

"The market has to function at whatever rate," Trichet said.
Overnight euro rates at least on Thursday did come down in response to the ECB's actions, though three-month rates weren't moved, according to data from the British Bankers Association.
Dresdner's Guntermann pointed out that whatever Trichet insisted, there clearly was a link between the actions - or else rates would have been hiked on Thursday.

Though he still thinks the ECB will try to raise rates to 4.25% by the end of the year, Guntermann said the "window of opportunity is narrowing" for it to raise rates this year.
At Citigroup, Jose Alzola said with underlying inflation under control and the possibility that market problems persist, the ECB might not have much to do on interest rates.
"The ECB probably will end up keeping official rates at 4% for a prolonged period of time," the economist said
 
Status
Not open for further replies.