Re: bad move by Lance

Discussion in 'Road Cycling' started by Mad Dog, Jul 7, 2005.

  1. Mad Dog

    Mad Dog Guest

    Bill Lloyd says...

    >Dumbass -


    >Get perspective. He gained 7 seconds.


    Penis Breath -

    You forgot the time bonus for finishing 2nd. So make that 19 seconds.

    >He's going to lose 2 MINUTES in the last time trial.


    >The number of further finishes where he can get away in the last
    >kilometer and have a crash give him a gap due to rain is, what, 3 more?
    > So 21 seconds goes into 2 minutes almost 6 times.


    19 x 3 = 57, which goes into 2 minutes just over twice. You look like a dumbass
    when you bungle simple math.

    >Not a problem at all, especially with climbs.


    The problem is that you seem to think the 2 minute TT advantage is in the bag.
    Nothing is in the bag, which is why they actually have to ride the stages. What
    if Lance flats at a bad time? After the clip at the tire factory that mentions
    that Lance has never flatted in the TdF, I wouldn't be surprised to see it
    happen.

    Don't get me wrong - I'm not experiencing a Lance Anxiety Attack, and will not
    lose any sleep regardless of his finish. I tend to think it's his race to win,
    but am not yet ready to bet the farm on it. He certainly looks to be the
    strongest rider out there at present, but there are so many possibilities for
    little things to go wrong. Who will make the fewest mistakes? Those that
    minimize errors AND ride well will be on the podium.
     
    Tags:


  2. k.papai

    k.papai Guest

    "The problem is that you seem to think the 2 minute TT advantage is in
    the bag.
    Nothing is in the bag, which is why they actually have to ride the
    stages. What
    if Lance flats at a bad time? After the clip at the tire factory that
    mentions
    that Lance has never flatted in the TdF, I wouldn't be surprised to see
    it
    happen. "


    ....and what if Vino flats? What if? What if? What if?

    -Ken
     
  3. Tim Lines

    Tim Lines Guest

    k.papai wrote:
    > "The problem is that you seem to think the 2 minute TT advantage is in
    > the bag.
    > Nothing is in the bag, which is why they actually have to ride the
    > stages. What
    > if Lance flats at a bad time? After the clip at the tire factory that
    > mentions
    > that Lance has never flatted in the TdF, I wouldn't be surprised to see
    > it
    > happen. "
    >
    >
    > ...and what if Vino flats? What if? What if? What if?
    >


    19 seconds is exactly 19 seconds and probably not that large in the big
    scheme of things. It's been a while (16 years?) since 19 seconds would
    have decided the winner.

    On the other hand, the number of times that a legitimate challenger
    attacked and ended up gaining ground on Armstrong was small last year
    (Basso did once, I think) and was looking remote after the ITT and TTT
    this year. Armstrong is on form but it's nice to see someone else do
    well too. It opens up possibilities that seemed more remote yesterday.

    Go VINO!!!
     
  4. gwhite

    gwhite Guest

    Tim Lines wrote:
    >
    > k.papai wrote:
    > > "The problem is that you seem to think the 2 minute TT advantage is in
    > > the bag.
    > > Nothing is in the bag, which is why they actually have to ride the
    > > stages. What
    > > if Lance flats at a bad time? After the clip at the tire factory that
    > > mentions
    > > that Lance has never flatted in the TdF, I wouldn't be surprised to see
    > > it
    > > happen. "
    > >
    > >
    > > ...and what if Vino flats? What if? What if? What if?
    > >

    >
    > 19 seconds is exactly 19 seconds...


    Apparently not.

    "Time hasn't a single objective quality about it." -- D. A. Howe,
    NIST-Boulder, doc. _What Time Is_

    "There is no such thing as a singular true time derived from natural
    phenomena." -- Allan, Ashby, Hodge
    http://www.allanstime.com/Publications/DWA/Science_Timekeeping/TheScienceOfTimekeeping.pdf

    Just kidding. I know what you mean.

    > ...and probably not that large in the big
    > scheme of things. It's been a while (16 years?) since 19 seconds would
    > have decided the winner.


    Ya neva know.

    > On the other hand, the number of times that a legitimate challenger
    > attacked and ended up gaining ground on Armstrong was small last year
    > (Basso did once, I think) and was looking remote after the ITT and TTT
    > this year. Armstrong is on form but it's nice to see someone else do
    > well too. It opens up possibilities that seemed more remote yesterday.
    >
    > Go VINO!!!


    Yes. At least he doesn't lay down like a loser.
     
  5. Mad Dog wrote:
    > Bill Lloyd says...
    >
    > >Dumbass -

    >
    > >Get perspective. He gained 7 seconds.

    >
    > Penis Breath -
    >
    > You forgot the time bonus for finishing 2nd. So make that 19 seconds.




    Dumbass -

    You've got your head up your ass.

    If all LANCE's rivals attack in the last few k's of a sprinter's stage,
    it will work to his benefit in the long run. The great majority of the
    attacks won't work, the few that do won't gain a lot of time, but most
    importantly, his rivals will be using up reserves while he rests.

    One of the many reasons that LANCE has won 6 in a row is that he isn't
    indiscriminate about his energy use - he expends it when it's
    necessary.

    It's also why you won't see Basso or Ullrich doing such moves. Vino
    gets a free hand, but it's because Ullrich is the acknowledged T-Mobile
    GC man (perhaps incorrectly).

    thanks,

    K. Gringioni.
     
  6. On 7 Jul 2005 17:21:39 -0700, "Kurgan Gringioni"
    <[email protected]> wrote:

    >


    >One of the many reasons that LANCE has won 6 in a row is that he isn't
    >indiscriminate about his energy use - he expends it when it's
    >necessary.


    He can afford to play the odds.

    His 'rivals' have nothing to show for playing safe.

    >It's also why you won't see Basso or Ullrich doing such moves.


    They don't want it badly enough ?
     
  7. danko

    danko Guest

    Not one rider can win it alone. Not Vino, not Lance. Can Vino respond
    to Dicovery´s attacks day after day. And Armstrong has to follow
    team´s wheels. I´v seen Ulle in Swiss Tour. He can climb well on
    stage, but can not REPEAT it two stages in a row. Neither can Kloden.
    He´s in a really bad form. So, who is going to pull Vino uphill, day
    by day?
     
  8. Laz

    Laz Guest

    "danko" <[email protected]> wrote in message
    news:[email protected]
    Not one rider can win it alone. Not Vino, not Lance. Can Vino respond
    to Dicovery´s attacks day after day. And Armstrong has to follow
    team´s wheels. I´v seen Ulle in Swiss Tour. He can climb well on
    stage, but can not REPEAT it two stages in a row. Neither can Kloden.
    He´s in a really bad form. So, who is going to pull Vino uphill, day
    by day?


    Things change, people change. You may be right, but we will see....

    Laz
     
  9. k.papai

    k.papai Guest

    "> Good call.

    It takes a chiseling, witless, adolescent puke to trim a posting
    this way. Are you a journalist? ?"

    Ilan thinks he's a funny guy but I doubt he has EVER turned a wheel in
    anger.

    He's an excellent armchair quarterback and for him to talk shit to Bill
    Lloyd is pure lunacy on Ilan's part. Just goes to show you what kind of
    people haunt the newsgroups -- those that do (take part and copntribute
    like Bill) and those that sit back and criticize and wouldn't know
    intensity even if it bit them in the ass (Ilan).

    -Ken
     
  10. Mad Dog

    Mad Dog Guest

    gwhite says...

    >Tim Lines wrote:


    >> k.papai wrote:


    >> Go VINO!!!


    >Yes. At least he doesn't lay down like a loser.


    Makes it better than a boring blowout, no doubt. Anyone want to try to predict
    who and when the first serious attack on the yellow jersey is going to happen?
    Seeing the response will tell much.
     
  11. Mad Dog

    Mad Dog Guest

    [email protected] says...

    >>It's also why you won't see Basso or Ullrich doing such moves.


    >They don't want it badly enough ?


    It's too early for them to play their hands. And they probably intend on trying
    more straightforward attacks - if they have the power to pull it off. Those
    kinds of things are easy to plan in advance in the dreaming stages, but reality
    can be a tough customer. If Lance's condition is really as good relative to the
    competition as the prologue TT and TTT made it look, it's gonna be tough for
    anyone to put big hurt on him.
     
  12. Funny how the commentators spend so much time saying that DSC will
    want to turn the yellow jersey over to someone else. Then they talk
    about how he wishes he had more of a lead.

    So we want to give the jersey over to someone who is absolutely no
    threat but we also want to gain some time on other GC contenders, or
    at least not lose any time to them.

    Meanwhile, you have 4 teams with tough sprinters who are determined to
    bring back the breaks by the end.

    Other than the little risky Vino incident I think you pretty much got
    what you're going to get. The opening TT and the TTT are where the
    time came from, was going to come from, would come from if we started
    over.

    How much better shape could Armstrong even be in? He's not god. If he
    wanted more time then he should have made a fking break for it. Did he
    think he should have gotten more time on the GC rivals in the TT? No.
    Does he think he should have gotten more time on them in the TTT? No.
    Does he think they should have cracked on these flat stages? No.

    It is exactly what it is. Minus the Vino incident there is nothing
    that could be different barring misfortune.

    Saying Armstrong wishes he had more of a lead is like saying I wish I
    made 10 million dollars a year....... no shit! But it's not gonna
    happen.

    D
     
  13. Mad Dog wrote:
    > Turdgan Gringioni says...
    >
    > >You've got your head up your ass.

    >
    > Turdgan: You're the only colon-sniffer on this group. You may think we all
    > reek, but that's because your nostrils are fecal-impacted pooptubes.
    >
    > >If all LANCE's rivals attack in the last few k's of a sprinter's stage,
    > >it will work to his benefit in the long run. The great majority of the
    > >attacks won't work, the few that do won't gain a lot of time, but most
    > >importantly, his rivals will be using up reserves while he rests.

    >
    > I'm not talking about ALL of Lance's rivals. It only take one or two to make a
    > difference.




    Dumbass -

    If one or two of LANCE's rivals consistently attack during field
    sprints, those one or two guys won't be rivals for long.

    It's not a good use of energy. The other GC contenders rest and most of
    the time field momentum (from sprinters' teams trying to position their
    man) brings them back.

    thanks,

    K. Gringioni.
     
  14. Jet

    Jet Guest

    On Fri, 08 Jul 2005 16:51:55 -0400, David Ferguson
    <[email protected]> wrote:

    >How much better shape could Armstrong even be in? He's not god. If he
    >wanted more time then he should have made a fking break for it. Did he


    Huh? You're sounding a bit naive; I'm surprised. LA is an expert at
    parceling out the energy exactly when it's needed, as you well know.

    >think he should have gotten more time on the GC rivals in the TT? No.


    You -do- realize that he got virtually the same time as Z, but with -no-
    tailwind. That he was more than a minute ahead of -everyone- should tell
    you something. OK, part of it may have been the bike, part may have been
    the 'strawberry' he caught, lol. He rode the first part of the ITT at 92%
    HRMax. To me that says he is a cycling 'god'.

    >Does he think he should have gotten more time on them in the TTT? No.
    >Does he think they should have cracked on these flat stages? No.


    Huh? What? Who cracked? Nobody cracks on flat stages anymore except maybe
    the Lanterne rouge. ;-)

    >It is exactly what it is. Minus the Vino incident there is nothing
    >that could be different barring misfortune.


    Sure it could. LA and Co. are just much smarter than that.

    >Saying Armstrong wishes he had more of a lead is like saying I wish I
    >made 10 million dollars a year....... no shit! But it's not gonna
    >happen.


    No, but it's just talk. He's said that every year - i.e. wanting to have at
    least two minutes on Ullrich. It's an 'I'd like to...' vs 'I desperately
    -need- to'.

    jj

    >
    >D
     
  15. On Fri, 08 Jul 2005 18:01:37 -0400, Jet<[email protected]> wrote:

    >On Fri, 08 Jul 2005 16:51:55 -0400, David Ferguson
    ><[email protected]> wrote:
    >
    >>How much better shape could Armstrong even be in? He's not god. If he
    >>wanted more time then he should have made a fking break for it. Did he

    >
    >Huh? You're sounding a bit naive; I'm surprised. LA is an expert at
    >parceling out the energy exactly when it's needed, as you well know.


    Exactly my point. Things are exactly where they should be. He's not
    going to waste his time trying to gain time during these flat stages.
    Therefore there is no more time to be had than what he got from the TT
    and the TTT. And they did pretty damn good on that.

    >
    >>think he should have gotten more time on the GC rivals in the TT? No.

    >
    >You -do- realize that he got virtually the same time as Z, but with -no-
    >tailwind. That he was more than a minute ahead of -everyone- should tell
    >you something. OK, part of it may have been the bike, part may have been
    >the 'strawberry' he caught, lol. He rode the first part of the ITT at 92%
    >HRMax. To me that says he is a cycling 'god'.


    Tailwind, depending on who you ask. He might be A god, but he's not
    THE god. Which is about what it would take to have more time on his
    rivals than what he does.


    >
    >>Does he think he should have gotten more time on them in the TTT? No.
    >>Does he think they should have cracked on these flat stages? No.

    >
    >Huh? What? Who cracked? Nobody cracks on flat stages anymore except maybe
    >the Lanterne rouge. ;-)


    Precisely, so there is no more time to be gained than what he
    currently has. Only time to be defended, which they let Vino get, for
    any number of various reasons. Most likely because they weren't
    watching for it and weren't in a position to react during such a high
    risk moment.

    >
    >>It is exactly what it is. Minus the Vino incident there is nothing
    >>that could be different barring misfortune.

    >
    >Sure it could. LA and Co. are just much smarter than that.


    Ok, "could", but again, what's he gonna do? Attack these flats? No.
    The time is exactly where it should be and he couldn't hope for much
    more.

    >
    >>Saying Armstrong wishes he had more of a lead is like saying I wish I
    >>made 10 million dollars a year....... no shit! But it's not gonna
    >>happen.

    >
    >No, but it's just talk. He's said that every year - i.e. wanting to have at
    >least two minutes on Ullrich. It's an 'I'd like to...' vs 'I desperately
    >-need- to'.
    >


    "Just talk" is right. Lots of talk about fantasies when you're in
    about the best possible position is a waste of time, in my opinion.

    If we're just going to wish for stuff that's not possible then he
    should say that he wishes it was over and he won.

    D
     
  16. Mad Dog

    Mad Dog Guest

    Kurgan Gringioni says...

    >If one or two of LANCE's rivals consistently attack during field
    >sprints, those one or two guys won't be rivals for long.


    Turdgun, Dumbass -

    Then why is Vino still in the hunt? And why was Lance pissed off that he got
    away?

    >It's not a good use of energy. The other GC contenders rest and most of
    >the time field momentum (from sprinters' teams trying to position their
    >man) brings them back.


    It's a risk, plain and simple. If you had the ability to quantitate energy
    expendature (and you don't), you may find that Vino's little sprint was easily
    worth the 19 seconds it netted. If you want to blow your ass about energy
    expendature, then talk about the long, very hard pulls Lance took in the TTT.
    What did those net, like 1.5 seconds? The thing is, you don't have that data,
    but we do know that Vino's sprint got: 19. But the odds of him crashing might
    be more important than energy loss if you're talking "consistent attacks".
     
  17. danko <[email protected]> wrote:
    > So, who is going to pull Vino uphill, day by day?


    G.Gurini :)

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  18. On Tue, 12 Jul 2005 23:54:45 +0200, Morten Reippuert Knudsen wrote:
    > G.Gurini


    Guiseppe Guerini.

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