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Re: power of positive thinking

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24 June 2008
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27 June 2008
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  1. Quoted message said:

    If you had to guess, which ride(s) would you guess--

    Er, which ride(s) would you predict had 7 pounds of steel rods added
    to the top tube of a ~27 pound bicycle with a ~193 pound rider?

    Well that depends. If your 15-mile ride included a climb to the top of
    Hardscrabble Pass, I'd boldly predict that your slow times correspond
    to hauling 8 pounds of extra weight. But I know you like to cruise the
    endless flat expanses around Pueblo and thus there is no way to
    predict without knowing the wind speed and direction each day, as that
    would be the most important variable affecting your average speed.
    There's a reason that big riders struggle on the hills.

    Robert

  2. Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    If you had to guess, which ride(s) would you guess--

    Er, which ride(s) would you predict had 7 pounds of steel rods added
    to the top tube of a ~27 pound bicycle with a ~193 pound rider?

    Well that depends. If your 15-mile ride included a climb to the top of
    Hardscrabble Pass, I'd boldly predict that your slow times correspond
    to hauling 8 pounds of extra weight. But I know you like to cruise the
    endless flat expanses around Pueblo and thus there is no way to
    predict without knowing the wind speed and direction each day, as that
    would be the most important variable affecting your average speed.
    There's a reason that big riders struggle on the hills.

    Robert

    Dear Robert,

    Well, my daily ride is flat for values that include the 400-foot climb
    up the ridge west of town.

    This year, my average top speed coming back down the ridge is 39.03
    mph, varying from 48.7 mph to 32.1 mph, a sizeable variation that
    illustrates your point about wind even on downhills.

    In fact, even minor wind variation matters more than weight on the
    uphill on Hardscrabble.

    Hard to believe, but read on.

    If you mean Hardscrabble Creek from Wetmore (about 30 miles past where
    I turn around on highway 96), that's a 3.4% grade of about 16 miles:
    http://www.rmccrides.com/ClimbDB/climb_detail_page.php?climb=146

    So let's look into 16 miles up a 3.4% grade, 193-lb rider with 27 and
    34 pound bikes at 7500 feet, (bottom is 6100, top is 9085), clinchers,
    on-the-drops:, 200 watts (hey, it's a round number):
    http://bikecalculator.com/veloUS.html

    27 34
    up 93.80 96.24 heavy bike 2.44 minutes slower (2m:26.4s)

    But now make the rider climb into a gentle 5 mph headwind:

    27 34
    up 100.09 102.46 heavy bike only 2.35 minutes slower

    That modest 5 mph headwind adds about 6 minutes to the climb time for
    either bike. (The heavy bike actually closes the gap a little.)

    So a 5 mph headwind makes a bigger difference on the climb than adding
    7 pounds to the bike.

    On a still day with no headwind, the heavy bike reaches the top of
    Hardscrabble in 96.24 minutes.

    On a day with a 5 mph headwind, the light bike takes almost 4 more
    minutes to struggle to the top at 100.09.

    They're going 9~10 mph in all cases.

    Cheers,

    Carl Fogel

  3. Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    On Jun 23, 10:35 pm, [email hidden] wrote:

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    If you had to guess, which ride(s) would you guess--

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    Er, which ride(s) would you predict had 7 pounds of steel rods added
    to the top tube of a ~27 pound bicycle with a ~193 pound rider?

    Quoted message said:

    Well that depends. If your 15-mile ride included a climb to the top of
    Hardscrabble Pass, I'd boldly predict that your slow times correspond
    to hauling 8 pounds of extra weight. But I know you like to cruise the
    endless flat expanses around Pueblo and thus there is no way to
    predict without knowing the wind speed and direction each day, as that
    would be the most important variable affecting your average speed.
    There's a reason that big riders struggle on the hills.

    Quoted message said:

    Robert

    Dear Robert,

    Well, my daily ride is flat for values that include the 400-foot climb
    up the ridge west of town.

    This year, my average top speed coming back down the ridge is 39.03
    mph, varying from 48.7 mph to 32.1 mph, a sizeable variation that
    illustrates your point about wind even on downhills.

    In fact, even minor wind variation matters more than weight on the
    uphill on Hardscrabble.

    Hard to believe, but read on.

    If you mean Hardscrabble Creek from Wetmore (about 30 miles past where
    I turn around on highway 96), that's a 3.4% grade of about 16 miles:
    http://www.rmccrides.com/ClimbDB/climb_detail_page.php?climb=146

    So let's look into 16 miles up a 3.4% grade, 193-lb rider with 27 and
    34 pound bikes at 7500 feet, (bottom is 6100, top is 9085), clinchers,
    on-the-drops:, 200 watts (hey, it's a round number):
    http://bikecalculator.com/veloUS.html

    27 34
    up 93.80 96.24 heavy bike 2.44 minutes slower (2m:26.4s)

    But now make the rider climb into a gentle 5 mph headwind:

    27 34
    up 100.09 102.46 heavy bike only 2.35 minutes slower

    That modest 5 mph headwind adds about 6 minutes to the climb time for
    either bike. (The heavy bike actually closes the gap a little.)

    So a 5 mph headwind makes a bigger difference on the climb than adding
    7 pounds to the bike.

    On a still day with no headwind, the heavy bike reaches the top of
    Hardscrabble in 96.24 minutes.

    On a day with a 5 mph headwind, the light bike takes almost 4 more
    minutes to struggle to the top at 100.09.

    They're going 9~10 mph in all cases.

    Cheers,

    Carl Fogel

    Carl:

    A couple of things are missing.

    1. The whole rotating mass bit, which fuels probably the largest,
    highest $ growth part of the high end bicycle market--getting people
    to put on light, fragile wheels, and lighter pedals. But, light wheels
    are where there's more money, as they fuel the demand for light tires
    of ever changing colors.

    2. Nobody demanded you convert some of your duration metrics to
    distance when the sprint setting you posed pretty well begged for it.
    And from the outset, you obliterated differences in acceleration by
    swamping them in steady-state durations. Which, to be fair, would be
    like pointing out that a 50% cure rate for a rare disease has
    negligible impact on overall mortality. If Consumer Reports (CR) has
    delivered 0-60 and 50-65 acceleration times, CF should have cranked
    out estimates of acceleration parameters. The hyperbolic feature
    article you ridicule is, after all, about claimed sensation of
    acceleration improvements.

    (A general observation about weight and bicycles. Present a fancy
    racing-inspired bicycle to 100 civilians, something that LOOKS fast,
    and as long as it weighs under, say 22 lb and looks light, the second
    thing the civilian, man or woman, will do to judge and admire it will
    be to lift it by the saddle and marvel at how light it is. After
    looks, what else do they have to go by? Half of them can't ride, and
    98% don't. So they admire the looks, then lift it from the saddle and
    pronounce it light ....and good. And which of two is better, and must
    be faster, if they want to or wish to compare them? The one that is
    perceptibly lighter.

    Readers here, including skeptics, may approach a quality bike from the
    left, lift it by the saddle, and be disappointed that it seems heavy.
    Maybe because of junk in the trunk, heavier cog set, heavier tire.
    Whatever the cause for the surprise, it is in the direction of
    disappointment.)

    Now #1, above. I'm surprised nobody demanded to know where you assumed
    the mass was distributed on the bikes, especially in your example of
    the sprint. I doubt slightly lighter wheels are perceptibly faster,
    but that's what and why marketers are pushing seriously lighter ones.

    #2. In the case of the sprint, and assuming you modeled with all the
    weight on frame, the .4 seconds difference in finish time translates
    to 6 to 8 meters at the finish. Put the weight on the wheels and it
    would be more. That's quite a bit, and you posed that competitive race/
    place situation yourself,

    Also there may be more to acceleration perception than you have
    credited, which is why crazy light and fragile wheels MAY be
    perceptibly faster. Automotive engineers design accelerator pedals and
    linkages to maximize the perception of acceleration in response to
    foot movement on the pedal. That's independent of and having no effect
    on any part of the fuel/air feed, the transmission, or engine. Just
    the pedal and linkage.

    That said: I ride with just a few lb less patch and repair than you
    do, can't see myself riding wheels with fewer than 28 spokes, and
    wonder about people who keep riding on and complaining about bicycle
    tires that are thin and light enough to have them flatting on 5+% of
    their rides. And, if such wheels were not so robust I won't need more,
    I would worry about the supply of 2kg pairs of "Jobst's wheels" on
    the used market.

    Harry Travis

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