M
Matt O'Toole
Guest
Ryan Cousineau wrote:
> Hee hee. I don't mean to suggest there's no gain. But I am curious
> about the fact that a car like the Prius is very popular, but Toyota
> has not brought out an "intermediate" car: think about a Toyota Echo
> running aluminum bodywork, their smallest engine,
> low-rolling-resistance tires, and an idle-shutoff. I suspect such a
> car would be very close in fuel economy to the Prius, but without the
> expense and weight of a substantial battery pack (it would need a
> slightly larger battery for the fast-start setup). The only really
> pricey feature would be converting from steel to aluminum, and the
> savings on that would be marginal.
Again, you're simply mistaken. Most people are. The (old) Prius looks like an
Echo, but has absolutely nothing in common. It's an entirely different
platform, engineered from the ground up. It *is* an intermediate car, in terms
of interior space. It actually does have more room inside than a Taurus or
Camry. An Echo definately does not.
> The emissions regulations in the US, whatever else they may be, are
> not anti-diesel. First, there are quite a few diesels for sale in the
> US right now.
> I can't think of a time from the OPEC crisis onwards
> during which at least one maker didn't have a diesel option for sale
> in the US. Now, these ranged from the slightly stinky early
> Mercedes-Benz diesels and the astoundingly wretched Oldsmobile
> diesels, through countless smelly Rabbits, and finally to a range of
> TDI cars today, mostly offered by Volkswagen (two of my co-workers
> own Jetta TDIs, and Canadian emissions standards essentially parallel
> the US standard, at least for states not following the California
> spec).
There are very few diesel *passenger cars* for sale in the US right now. Plenty
of trucks, but no cars. Cars and trucks have different emissions
requirements -- remember the SUV loophole? VW and Mercedes are the only ones
selling diesel passenger cars, and that's only after a several year hiatus by
Mercedes. For awhile it was just VW.
And for a long time, diesel VWs were not available in CA, or states which share
CA emissions standards. You could bring them in as used cars, but not buy them
new. CA is full of *old* Mercedes diesels. They haven't been sold there for
several years.
The California Air Resources Board is *definately* anti-diesel, and the main
obstacle to diesels being sold in the US. Anyone in the car biz will tell you
that. CA is the biggest single market, and proportionally an even bigger market
for Mercedes. Since MA and NY generally share CA emissions standards, there go
the two biggest markets, CA and the Northeast.
CARB politics in Sacramento are definately the special interest tail wagging the
dog. There are some smart scientists working at the CARB and the AQMD (air
quality management district, for southern CA). The science behind limiting
sales of diesel passenger cars is definately not there. With so many old-tech
trucks on the road, industrial equipment, oil refineries, jets flying into LAX,
diesel locomotives, etc. -- modern, clean-burning diesel cars are lost in the
noise. So the only explanation is special interests wanting to keep them out.
These scientists and engineers are constantly being overruled by legislators
loyal to other interests.
> Second, there are market reasons why diesels aren't as attractive in
> the US. Diesels are very efficient: they get better mpg on an
> absolute basis than gas engines, and diesel fuel is usually a bit
> cheaper. But in the US, gas taxes are so low that the cost of fuel is
> a smaller portion of the operating costs of a car than in any other
> "developed" nation. This means that opting for the diesel takes
> longer to pay itself off than it would in Europe. In some cases, you
> would not make up the cost difference ever, if you didn't drive very
> far and sold your car relatively early.
This is true, and has been throughout the history of diesel cars in America.
VW is breaking new ground, though. Resale prices for the TDIs are so high that
the higher initial cost *is* paying for itself. The Golf TDI vies with the
Honda Civic for lowest TCO of any new car sold in the US. And it's mostly
because of low depreciation.
> And more than Europe, diesels have had to fight a long battle against
> their reputation as smelly hard-starting vehicles. I realize that is
> no longer the reality of diesel ownership, but it's a major reason
> (along with performance) why diesels don't sell well in the US.
Well, there's definately that bias, but it's more among overly conservative
marketing people. Who knows how diesel cars would be received, since no one
(but VW) has brought out a new one in 20 years? The main resistance these days
is definately from the regulatory side.
Once we get our low-sulfur diesel, starting in 2006, there will probably be more
European diesels brought over. If these are popular, we'll probably see the
American and Japanese companies following with diesels of their own. But that's
a few years off, plenty of time for them to get ready.
Matt O.
> Hee hee. I don't mean to suggest there's no gain. But I am curious
> about the fact that a car like the Prius is very popular, but Toyota
> has not brought out an "intermediate" car: think about a Toyota Echo
> running aluminum bodywork, their smallest engine,
> low-rolling-resistance tires, and an idle-shutoff. I suspect such a
> car would be very close in fuel economy to the Prius, but without the
> expense and weight of a substantial battery pack (it would need a
> slightly larger battery for the fast-start setup). The only really
> pricey feature would be converting from steel to aluminum, and the
> savings on that would be marginal.
Again, you're simply mistaken. Most people are. The (old) Prius looks like an
Echo, but has absolutely nothing in common. It's an entirely different
platform, engineered from the ground up. It *is* an intermediate car, in terms
of interior space. It actually does have more room inside than a Taurus or
Camry. An Echo definately does not.
> The emissions regulations in the US, whatever else they may be, are
> not anti-diesel. First, there are quite a few diesels for sale in the
> US right now.
> I can't think of a time from the OPEC crisis onwards
> during which at least one maker didn't have a diesel option for sale
> in the US. Now, these ranged from the slightly stinky early
> Mercedes-Benz diesels and the astoundingly wretched Oldsmobile
> diesels, through countless smelly Rabbits, and finally to a range of
> TDI cars today, mostly offered by Volkswagen (two of my co-workers
> own Jetta TDIs, and Canadian emissions standards essentially parallel
> the US standard, at least for states not following the California
> spec).
There are very few diesel *passenger cars* for sale in the US right now. Plenty
of trucks, but no cars. Cars and trucks have different emissions
requirements -- remember the SUV loophole? VW and Mercedes are the only ones
selling diesel passenger cars, and that's only after a several year hiatus by
Mercedes. For awhile it was just VW.
And for a long time, diesel VWs were not available in CA, or states which share
CA emissions standards. You could bring them in as used cars, but not buy them
new. CA is full of *old* Mercedes diesels. They haven't been sold there for
several years.
The California Air Resources Board is *definately* anti-diesel, and the main
obstacle to diesels being sold in the US. Anyone in the car biz will tell you
that. CA is the biggest single market, and proportionally an even bigger market
for Mercedes. Since MA and NY generally share CA emissions standards, there go
the two biggest markets, CA and the Northeast.
CARB politics in Sacramento are definately the special interest tail wagging the
dog. There are some smart scientists working at the CARB and the AQMD (air
quality management district, for southern CA). The science behind limiting
sales of diesel passenger cars is definately not there. With so many old-tech
trucks on the road, industrial equipment, oil refineries, jets flying into LAX,
diesel locomotives, etc. -- modern, clean-burning diesel cars are lost in the
noise. So the only explanation is special interests wanting to keep them out.
These scientists and engineers are constantly being overruled by legislators
loyal to other interests.
> Second, there are market reasons why diesels aren't as attractive in
> the US. Diesels are very efficient: they get better mpg on an
> absolute basis than gas engines, and diesel fuel is usually a bit
> cheaper. But in the US, gas taxes are so low that the cost of fuel is
> a smaller portion of the operating costs of a car than in any other
> "developed" nation. This means that opting for the diesel takes
> longer to pay itself off than it would in Europe. In some cases, you
> would not make up the cost difference ever, if you didn't drive very
> far and sold your car relatively early.
This is true, and has been throughout the history of diesel cars in America.
VW is breaking new ground, though. Resale prices for the TDIs are so high that
the higher initial cost *is* paying for itself. The Golf TDI vies with the
Honda Civic for lowest TCO of any new car sold in the US. And it's mostly
because of low depreciation.
> And more than Europe, diesels have had to fight a long battle against
> their reputation as smelly hard-starting vehicles. I realize that is
> no longer the reality of diesel ownership, but it's a major reason
> (along with performance) why diesels don't sell well in the US.
Well, there's definately that bias, but it's more among overly conservative
marketing people. Who knows how diesel cars would be received, since no one
(but VW) has brought out a new one in 20 years? The main resistance these days
is definately from the regulatory side.
Once we get our low-sulfur diesel, starting in 2006, there will probably be more
European diesels brought over. If these are popular, we'll probably see the
American and Japanese companies following with diesels of their own. But that's
a few years off, plenty of time for them to get ready.
Matt O.