Rumors?

Discussion in 'Road Cycling' started by Thomps, Jun 27, 2004.

  1. Thomps

    Thomps Guest

    To those of you in the know, or even those who enjoy speculating:

    Why do I keep hearing/reading about imminent price hikes on bikes and/or
    components?
    Are they true?
    I'd like to buy new, and am wondering whether to wait until this winter, or
    if I'd be wiser to act sooner.

    Thanks all,


    Thomps
     
    Tags:


  2. Tom Keats

    Tom Keats Guest

    In article <[email protected]>,
    "Thomps" <[email protected]> writes:
    > To those of you in the know, or even those who enjoy speculating:
    >
    > Why do I keep hearing/reading about imminent price hikes on bikes and/or
    > components?
    > Are they true?


    http://www.singletrackworld.com/article.php?sid=1300

    A Google search on 'bicycle price increases steel shortage'
    would turn up other info sources, including bikebiz.com.


    cheers,
    Tom

    --
    -- Powered by FreeBSD
    Above address is just a spam midden.
    I'm really at: tkeats [curlicue] vcn [point] bc [point] ca
     
  3. On Sun, 27 Jun 2004 21:16:22 -0500, "Thomps" <[email protected]> wrote
    in message <[email protected]>:

    >Why do I keep hearing/reading about imminent price hikes on bikes and/or
    >components?


    Because it's likely true? Just guessing. There is a steel shortage
    in Taiwan - they've even taken to stealing drain covers.

    As to whether to defer purchase, I reckon bikes are cheaper now than
    they have ever been. Even if they go up a bit they'll still be cheap
    in real terms.

    My tourer cost £1500 in 1985. For the same money now I could buy a
    somewhat better specified bike from Chas. Roberts, say. That's the
    same cash money, not adjusted for inflation. What car could you buy
    today for the 1985 price of a standard Ford?

    So buy when it suits your budget. But if you can, get one that's in
    stock, or you might have a long wait :)

    Guy
    --
    May contain traces of irony. Contents liable to settle after posting.
    http://www.chapmancentral.co.uk

    88% of helmet statistics are made up, 65% of them at Washington University
     
  4. "Just Zis Guy" writes:

    > My tourer cost £1500 in 1985. For the same money now I could buy a
    > somewhat better specified bike from Chas. Roberts, say. That's the
    > same cash money, not adjusted for inflation.


    My husband bought a Dawes Super Galaxy in the mid eighties for £350. His
    Claud Butler Italia with Campagnolo gears, purchased just a couple of
    years previously, was £259. We still have the receipts. A friend of the
    family had a fancy Mercian with all the trimmings. We were aghast that
    it cost him £500.

    Perhaps your old tourer was gold plated!

    N. Lenderby (Mrs)



    --
     
  5. On Mon, 28 Jun 2004 10:57:50 +0100, "Just zis Guy, you know?"
    <[email protected]> wrote:

    >On Sun, 27 Jun 2004 21:16:22 -0500, "Thomps" <[email protected]> wrote
    >in message <[email protected]>:
    >
    >>Why do I keep hearing/reading about imminent price hikes on bikes and/or
    >>components?

    >
    >Because it's likely true? Just guessing. There is a steel shortage
    >in Taiwan - they've even taken to stealing drain covers.


    I'm in the outsourcing business, and I haven't seen anyone doing that
    in Taiwan. However, in China, I did see a foundry scrap heap and guys
    were cutting up old steam heat radiators, car parts, sheet metal
    cabinets, etc., anything and everything - melting them for castings.

    Here, I put a pic I took of that scrap heap on my site so you can see
    it:

    http://www.asiancastings.com/images/scrap_heap.jpg

    Steel was going up some time ago. But recently I have not had any
    suppliers give me a raw materials cost increase.


    Michael J. Klein [email protected]
    Dasi Jen, Taoyuan Hsien, Taiwan, ROC
    Please replace mousepotato with asiancastings
    ---------------------------------------------
     
  6. Pbwalther

    Pbwalther Guest

    I rather doubt that an increase in metal prices would noticeably affect the
    price of a bicycle. Steel is sold by the ton and I checked the price for
    carbon steel and it goes at less then $300 per ton. Now that isn't cromolley
    but a bike frame weighs what? 4 lbs? So you have about $.60 in the price of
    steel in a bike. Even if the price of steel goes up 10 fold, that is only
    going to add about $6 to the price of the bike.

    If the price of bikes goes up, it will be other things that are acting then the
    price of metals.
     
  7. > To those of you in the know, or even those who enjoy speculating:
    >
    > Why do I keep hearing/reading about imminent price hikes on bikes and/or
    > components?
    > Are they true?
    > I'd like to buy new, and am wondering whether to wait until this winter,

    or
    > if I'd be wiser to act sooner.
    >
    > Thanks all,


    The bicycle industry is desperately *trying* to increase prices, since most
    of it's awash in red ink. That's nothing new, and prices have been held
    down by an oversupply situation. However, wholesale prices from OEMs have,
    for the first time, been ticking upward significantly. Most of this is due
    to increased demands from China, which is beginning to make itself known as
    a very large (and rapidly-growing) consumer of raw materials. Some feel
    that the demand from China will have far-reaching inflationary effects
    throughout most industries. However, much of the increased costs from China
    will be offset as production is still far cheaper there than elsewhere, so
    as more of it moves from higher-priced locales to China, prices are kept
    down (despite the fact that Chinese-manufactured goods are going up).

    But none of this is all that relevant to someone wanting a new bike. If you
    have a need for one now, you'll get to make use of it for several months of
    great summer riding. That adds significant value to the don't-wait side of
    the equation!

    --Mike-- Chain Reaction Bicycles
    www.ChainReactionBicycles.com
     
  8. bfd

    bfd Guest

    "Mike Jacoubowsky" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:<[email protected]>...
    > > To those of you in the know, or even those who enjoy speculating:
    > >
    > > Why do I keep hearing/reading about imminent price hikes on bikes and/or
    > > components?
    > > Are they true?
    > > I'd like to buy new, and am wondering whether to wait until this winter,

    > or
    > > if I'd be wiser to act sooner.
    > >
    > > Thanks all,

    >
    > The bicycle industry is desperately *trying* to increase prices, since most
    > of it's awash in red ink. That's nothing new, and prices have been held
    > down by an oversupply situation. However, wholesale prices from OEMs have,
    > for the first time, been ticking upward significantly. Most of this is due
    > to increased demands from China, which is beginning to make itself known as
    > a very large (and rapidly-growing) consumer of raw materials. Some feel
    > that the demand from China will have far-reaching inflationary effects
    > throughout most industries. However, much of the increased costs from China
    > will be offset as production is still far cheaper there than elsewhere, so
    > as more of it moves from higher-priced locales to China, prices are kept
    > down (despite the fact that Chinese-manufactured goods are going up).
    >
    > But none of this is all that relevant to someone wanting a new bike. If you
    > have a need for one now, you'll get to make use of it for several months of
    > great summer riding. That adds significant value to the don't-wait side of
    > the equation!
    >

    Mike
    Thanks for the insight. I agree that if you want a new bike NOW, get
    it, don't wait! However, if the Chinese are increasing their costs,
    how soon will it be before these same mfrs will move their production
    facilities over to other "lower-cost" countries like maybe the
    Philippines or Vietnam or even Cambodia....
     
  9. On 29 Jun 2004 09:57:33 -0700, [email protected] (bfd) wrote:

    >Thanks for the insight. I agree that if you want a new bike NOW, get
    >it, don't wait! However, if the Chinese are increasing their costs,
    >how soon will it be before these same mfrs will move their production
    >facilities over to other "lower-cost" countries like maybe the
    >Philippines or Vietnam or even Cambodia....


    What's increasing is raw materials costs, particularly steel, and from
    what I gather, that seems to be more or less global as Chinese
    consumption rises.

    Labor costs in China are still fairly low; don't let the propaganda
    fool you--the interior of the country is still largely undeveloped,
    and the flood of peasants migrating into the coastal cities makes for
    a buyers' market in laborers.

    Of course, as a Filipino, I'd love to see more action move into the
    ASEAN area and particularly into the Philippines. I'd be interested
    to see how costs stack up; I suspect the Chinese have other
    advantages other than their low labor costs that make manufacturing
    cheaper there--at least for metalbashing industries.

    -Luigi

    www.livejournal.com/users/ouij
    photos, rants, raves
     
  10. David Kerber

    David Kerber Guest

    In article <[email protected]>, luigi12081
    @cox.net says...
    > On 29 Jun 2004 09:57:33 -0700, [email protected] (bfd) wrote:
    >
    > >Thanks for the insight. I agree that if you want a new bike NOW, get
    > >it, don't wait! However, if the Chinese are increasing their costs,
    > >how soon will it be before these same mfrs will move their production
    > >facilities over to other "lower-cost" countries like maybe the
    > >Philippines or Vietnam or even Cambodia....

    >
    > What's increasing is raw materials costs, particularly steel, and from
    > what I gather, that seems to be more or less global as Chinese
    > consumption rises.
    >
    > Labor costs in China are still fairly low; don't let the propaganda
    > fool you--the interior of the country is still largely undeveloped,
    > and the flood of peasants migrating into the coastal cities makes for
    > a buyers' market in laborers.
    >
    > Of course, as a Filipino, I'd love to see more action move into the
    > ASEAN area and particularly into the Philippines. I'd be interested
    > to see how costs stack up; I suspect the Chinese have other
    > advantages other than their low labor costs that make manufacturing
    > cheaper there--at least for metalbashing industries.


    Ease of transportation of raw materials (coal, iron ore, etc) from the
    mines to the factories probably being a major one. The terrorist
    activities in certain parts of the Philippines doesn't help their
    prospects either, I'm sure.


    --
    Remove the ns_ from if replying by e-mail (but keep posts in the
    newsgroups if possible).
     
  11. > Thanks for the insight. I agree that if you want a new bike NOW, get
    > it, don't wait! However, if the Chinese are increasing their costs,
    > how soon will it be before these same mfrs will move their production
    > facilities over to other "lower-cost" countries like maybe the
    > Philippines or Vietnam or even Cambodia....


    It's inevitable that production will continue to shift towards emerging
    3rd-world countries as a means to save money. However, the Philippines
    might not be as likely as many others, since they've become relatively
    stagnant in their "emergence." One would have thought that the Philippines
    would have evolved into a major manufacturing center long ago, given their
    relative proximity to countries that have long felt the effects of improving
    (and expensive) living standards. Probably just shows my ignorance of the
    Asian economic situation.

    Perhaps the appeal of China is that it's SO vast that it would appear to
    offer almost limitless potential as a manufacturing center. Further, if you
    can work with the present government, the thought might be that things can
    only get better down the road (or at least not a situation where you're
    concerned that a sudden revolution might come about, leaving your investment
    worthless as the government takes it over).

    --Mike Jacoubowsky
    Chain Reaction Bicycles
    www.ChainReaction.com
    IMBA, BikesBelong, NBDA member

    "bfd" <[email protected]> wrote in message
    news:[email protected]
    > "Mike Jacoubowsky" <[email protected]> wrote in message

    news:<[email protected]>...
    > > > To those of you in the know, or even those who enjoy speculating:
    > > >
    > > > Why do I keep hearing/reading about imminent price hikes on bikes

    and/or
    > > > components?
    > > > Are they true?
    > > > I'd like to buy new, and am wondering whether to wait until this

    winter,
    > > or
    > > > if I'd be wiser to act sooner.
    > > >
    > > > Thanks all,

    > >
    > > The bicycle industry is desperately *trying* to increase prices, since

    most
    > > of it's awash in red ink. That's nothing new, and prices have been held
    > > down by an oversupply situation. However, wholesale prices from OEMs

    have,
    > > for the first time, been ticking upward significantly. Most of this is

    due
    > > to increased demands from China, which is beginning to make itself known

    as
    > > a very large (and rapidly-growing) consumer of raw materials. Some feel
    > > that the demand from China will have far-reaching inflationary effects
    > > throughout most industries. However, much of the increased costs from

    China
    > > will be offset as production is still far cheaper there than elsewhere,

    so
    > > as more of it moves from higher-priced locales to China, prices are kept
    > > down (despite the fact that Chinese-manufactured goods are going up).
    > >
    > > But none of this is all that relevant to someone wanting a new bike. If

    you
    > > have a need for one now, you'll get to make use of it for several months

    of
    > > great summer riding. That adds significant value to the don't-wait side

    of
    > > the equation!
    > >

    > Mike
    > Thanks for the insight. I agree that if you want a new bike NOW, get
    > it, don't wait! However, if the Chinese are increasing their costs,
    > how soon will it be before these same mfrs will move their production
    > facilities over to other "lower-cost" countries like maybe the
    > Philippines or Vietnam or even Cambodia....
     
  12. On Thu, 01 Jul 2004 06:51:37 GMT, "Mike Jacoubowsky/Chain Reaction
    Bicycles" <[email protected]> wrote:

    >> Thanks for the insight. I agree that if you want a new bike NOW, get
    >> it, don't wait! However, if the Chinese are increasing their costs,
    >> how soon will it be before these same mfrs will move their production
    >> facilities over to other "lower-cost" countries like maybe the
    >> Philippines or Vietnam or even Cambodia....

    >
    >It's inevitable that production will continue to shift towards emerging
    >3rd-world countries as a means to save money. However, the Philippines
    >might not be as likely as many others, since they've become relatively
    >stagnant in their "emergence." One would have thought that the Philippines
    >would have evolved into a major manufacturing center long ago, given their
    >relative proximity to countries that have long felt the effects of improving
    >(and expensive) living standards. Probably just shows my ignorance of the
    >Asian economic situation.


    At the risk of going far, far off-topic here:

    Proximity or exposure to higher standards of living has little to do
    with the underlying structural problems in the country. This would be
    akin to arguing that Watts' proximity to Hollywood should have made it
    a very affluent district by now.

    The Philippines lags behind other ASEAN economies because of, among
    other things:

    1) Bad governance: Doing business there is notoriously difficult for
    overseas firms; they are in particular hamepered by constitutional
    provisions against the foreign ownership of land.

    2) An entrenched landed elite. The landed elite class also happens to
    control most of domestic industrial activity; they're rolling in so
    much money from their rents that there is basically zero incentive for
    them to compete globally.

    As regards this, my father always likes to tell the story of San
    Miguel Beer--once the premier beer in Asia, shipped and available
    everywhere, especially where U.S. forces went. In Hong Kong in the
    seventies, said Dad, everybody drank "Sanee Mig" as they said in the
    local pidgin. Now, San Miguel has lost regional market share to
    other players: Tiger, Singha, Tsingtao--and to global ones, like
    Carlsberg. The corporation, publically-listed but closely-held by the
    Cojuanco family, didn't and doesnt' do much about the situation, since
    they seem to be satisfied only with domestic Philippine consumption.

    3) Poor political stability, at least when compared to its other ASEAN
    member-states. Unconsolidated democracy, in this respect, is far more
    of a liability to an emerging economy than autocratic
    developmental-statism. It's very difficult to argue with Singapore
    and Malaysia's parallel success over the past 40 years, despite or
    even because of strong authoritarian rule. A simmering insurgency in
    Mindanao and a sporadically-active armed Communist movement discourage
    foreign investors--never mind that the worst of the fighting is
    concentrated in few districts.

    In sum, the Philippines is twenty to thirty years behind Singapore,
    Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. In the 1960s, the Philippine
    economy was by far the most developed and most productive of the
    original ASEAN members. Twenty years of abusive and corrupt rule
    under Ferdinand Marcos drained the public treasury and bankrupted the
    economy. For the Filipino and the historian, there's a bitter irony
    in this: Marcos had first come to power pledging to break the power
    of the traditional politicians (the sons of that same landed elite
    that had, in their turn, collaborated with Spain, America, and Japan),
    and mobilize the country for development as part of a "New Society."
    The difference was that, unlike Lee Kwan-Yew's enlightened and largely
    benign developmental statism in Singapore, Marcos' kleptocracy
    actually set the country back.

    I'd love to see things change for the better in my lifetime, and the
    lifteime of my cousins. But for many of us, the only option is really
    emigration.

    -Luigi
     
  13. Tom Keats

    Tom Keats Guest

    In article <[email protected]>,
    [email protected] (Pbwalther) writes:
    > I rather doubt that an increase in metal prices would noticeably affect the
    > price of a bicycle.


    Same here. But I consider the possibility that shortages of
    raw materials can lead to shortages of finished product --
    effectively increasing demand over supply, thereby driving up
    prices. But I might be wrong, or overly simplistic. I'm
    certainly no economist. I prefer to leave such figuring up to
    the academia nuts :)


    cheers,
    Tom



    --
    -- Powered by FreeBSD
    Above address is just a spam midden.
    I'm really at: tkeats [curlicue] vcn [point] bc [point] ca
     
  14. On Thu, 01 Jul 2004 06:51:37 GMT, "Mike Jacoubowsky/Chain Reaction
    Bicycles" <[email protected]> wrote:

    >> Thanks for the insight. I agree that if you want a new bike NOW, get
    >> it, don't wait! However, if the Chinese are increasing their costs,
    >> how soon will it be before these same mfrs will move their production
    >> facilities over to other "lower-cost" countries like maybe the
    >> Philippines or Vietnam or even Cambodia....

    >
    >It's inevitable that production will continue to shift towards emerging
    >3rd-world countries as a means to save money. However, the Philippines
    >might not be as likely as many others, since they've become relatively
    >stagnant in their "emergence." One would have thought that the Philippines
    >would have evolved into a major manufacturing center long ago, given their
    >relative proximity to countries that have long felt the effects of improving
    >(and expensive) living standards. Probably just shows my ignorance of the
    >Asian economic situation.


    <snip>

    Is because that the Philippines looks to the US as an example. Due to
    the political affiliation with the US, its very much like a poor US
    state in some regards, not like the rest of Asia.
    Michael J. Klein [email protected]
    Dasi Jen, Taoyuan Hsien, Taiwan, ROC
    Please replace mousepotato with asiancastings
    ---------------------------------------------
     
Loading...
Loading...