Safespeed spoilsports



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"Paul Smith" <[email protected]> wrote in message
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> >What are we talking about here? The growth in German unemployment? Or are we talking about German
> >road safety measures? (Don't say they've introduced more speed limits on motorways.)

Yes -- many more.
>
> > :)
>
> Sorry! Fatal road accidents.
>
> Germany 1995-2000 -26% UK 1995-2000: -4.5%

Certainly such massive differences must be investigated and the reasons understood and applied. I
assume its because they don't have cameras, is it?

T
 
"Just zis Guy, you know?" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
>
> Now that really was a Kennedy moment. I can remember exactly where I was when I heard the news:
> driving home along the Eastern Road in Fratton, Portsmouth. I was so choked I had to stop.

I was at my Mum's -- she couldn't understand why I was crying. An amazing few months.

T
 
On Tue, 4 Mar 2003 01:35:05 -0000, "Tony W" <[email protected]> wrote:

>> It's ludicrous, even dangerous, to consider driving as anything other than continuous response.

>> It's all very well to start the clock at a certain state of pre-accident conditions and consider
>> what might happen.

>> But anyone who fails to also consider t-1 is very likely to arrive at false conclusions.

>By your contributions to this thread you have demonstrated that you do not understand the basics of
>mathematical modelling and are incapable of learning.

>Driving is a continuous process -- but an accident is not. It starts with an error. At that moment
>the initial conditions are defined (by previous actions) and the potentially grim reality will be
>played out.

>Get a grip Smith.

Few real accidents start with a single error. That's false. The general two road user accident is
one in the wrong, and the other failing to avoid. either of them could have avoided the accident.
The idea that they both got into an error at the same instant is pretty absurd.

All these imaginary accidents that get bandied about... "suddenly someone steps into the road... he
only has 100 feet to stop in ... if he had been going 5 mph slower he could have stopped" rubbish.

Chances are if you wind the clock back a bit you'll find some warning signs that were missed.
Hence t-1.

Accident situations develop. Sometimes you might find a contributory factor five seconds before the
"first error". Just open your mind to the possibility of looking more widely and learning more.
You're compartmentalising, and it isn't a safe approach to accident understanding.
--
Paul Smith Scotland, UK http://www.safespeed.org.uk please remove "XYZ" to reply by email speed
cameras cost lives
 
"Just zis Guy, you know?" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> On Mon, 3 Mar 2003 18:27:05 +0000, Michael MacClancy <[email protected]> wrote:
>
> >What are the reasons for the improvements in Germany?
>
> And more to the point, what are the reasons that their figures are so much higher than ours in the
> first place?

That plus economic stagnation.
 
On Tue, 4 Mar 2003 01:40:29 -0000, "Tony W" <[email protected]> wrote:

>> If either of us can't stop in time then a serious error has been made before the arbitrary start
>> of your experiment.

>Just how are you going to predict such a stochastic event?

A lorry shedding it's load? How long does that take? Wasn't it wobbling or leaning before the shed?

There are precious few unpredictable random events on the road, and if it was just those that caused
accidents, I think we'd all be happy.

(Until we got used to 50 deaths a year I suppose)
--
Paul Smith Scotland, UK http://www.safespeed.org.uk please remove "XYZ" to reply by email speed
cameras cost lives
 
Just zis Guy, you know? <[email protected]> wrote:
> On Mon, 3 Mar 2003 19:04:48 +0000, Michael MacClancy <[email protected]> wrote:
>
>>The Wall didn't fall until November 1989
>
> Now that really was a Kennedy moment. I can remember exactly where I was when I heard the news:
> driving home along the Eastern Road in Fratton, Portsmouth. I was so choked I had to stop.

Yeah, I remeber that too, at least seeing it on the news that evening. I also remember seeing the
wall and crossing Checkpoint Charlie in the early 70s as a kid, and hearing about all the escapees
that had been shot trying to cross the wall. I was at the time frightened by the checks under the
car with mirrors to ensure that noone was clinging on.

I couldn't help, in 1989, thinking of all the people who had died going over the wall, and the
stupidity of the system that had tried to stop them, ultimately for no purpose.

Trev.

PS: I'd like to think we've changed, but of course as a species we haven't. The world is still full
of frightened, pathetic people clinging on to power using fear and force.

And, on a more cheerful note, there's always dickheads like PS to give a bit of amusmement!
 
On Tue, 04 Mar 2003 02:12:03 +0000, Paul Smith <[email protected]> wrote:

>All these imaginary accidents that get bandied about... "suddenly someone steps into the road... he
>only has 100 feet to stop in ... if he had been going 5 mph slower he could have stopped" rubbish.

Those would be the imaginary accidents which account for the 9,000 pedestrians KSI.

>Accident situations develop. Sometimes you might find a contributory factor five seconds before the
>"first error". Just open your mind to the possibility of looking more widely and learning more.
>You're compartmentalising, and it isn't a safe approach to accident understanding.

Accident situations develop slower at slower speeds, and the consequences are less severe. Sometimes
you might find a the extra few seconds are enough to turn the "first error" into a near miss instead
of a crash. Just open your mind to the possibility of looking more widely and learning more. You're
compartmentalising, and it isn't a safe approach to accident understanding.

I suggest that rather than modelling your approach on Germany, whose roads are 60% more deadly than
ours, you look at the only country in Europe whose roads are safer, and where they have set an
ambitious target of eliminating serious injury accidents. Sweden's approach includes reducing limits
in built-up areas to 30km/h - they've calculated that journey times might be up to 2 3/4 minutes
longer, a good trade for casualty reductions of 70% or more.
 
On Tue, 04 Mar 2003 00:58:09 +0000, Paul Smith <[email protected]> wrote:

>I don't know of any "proper" national figure that puts Sweden ahead of the UK.

TSGB. The Usual Suspects.

>You might have looked at "injury accidents" but as far as I know, there are such big variations in
>definitions and reporting that the figures are not comparable from country to country.

No figures are - even the definition of fatal differs, and the thoroughness of data collection is
not uniform.
 
On Tue, 04 Mar 2003 01:00:06 +0000, Paul Smith <[email protected]> wrote:

>>with 30% less KE to start with, the chances of the crash actually happening in the first place
>>are dramatically reduced. Assuming the drive can dump enough KE to slow from 80 to an impact
>>speed of below 39mph, if he'd been doing 70 he would have stopped short of the other vehicle, all
>>other things being equal (the difference in KE between 80mph and 39mph being the same as that
>>between 70 and 0).

>>Seems simple enough - I don't think anybody else missed it.

>I didn't miss it. I consider it simplistic and misleading.

ROTFLMAO! Physics is simplistic and misleading, while misapplying a rule of thumb out of context to
speeds below it's useful cutoff point is "illuminating!" You really are priceless!

>I can't imaging why you want to concentrate on a small contributor to average crash energy.

I was actually focussing on a major contributor to crash energy - the fact that a car exceeding the
motorway limit by as little as 10mph has 30% more KE to shed in order to avoid a crash in the first
place, making it correspondingly less likely that they will succeed.
 
On Tue, 04 Mar 2003 01:03:18 +0000, Paul Smith <[email protected]> wrote:

>Suppose we use threats to slow everyone down to exactly the speed
>limit. Everyone drives with one eye on the speedo in case some invisible police robot catches them.
> Do you REALLY think that's going to make the roads safer?

It is widely believed that even the most inexperienced drivers in the country should be able to
demonstrate the ability to drive both safely and within the speed limit. This is, after all, part of
the driving test.
 
On Tue, 04 Mar 2003 01:27:47 +0000, Paul Smith <[email protected]> wrote:

>>Interesting choice of words. I am a driver too. I drive within the speed limit, as advocated by Mr
>>Ripley, and that has resulted in a less stressful driving experience for me, and far less
>>aggressive driving. So yes, my responses have altered - I am now much more aware and alert to
>>danger, as well as having more time to react and less energy to dissipate should it prove
>>necessary. What was your point again?

>>Strange to relate, it is widely believed that even the most experienced drivers are capable of
>>driving safely without exceeding the speed limit - indeed they are required to demonstrate this
>>ability as part of the driving test.

>None of these statements are true of the population at large. Care to try again, talking about
>average UK drivers?

I see - so the average driver hasn't passed a driving test and can't stop quicker at lower speeds.
That would certainly explain a lot. The average driver, of course, doesn't exceed the speed limit
all, or even most, of the time.

>How are YOU going to slow all of us down without risking altering our responses?

I don't have to - you are the one making bizarre and unsupportable claims, you are the one who has
repeatedly failed to convincingly argue your case, and yu are the one who is denying that a car at
70mph is more likely to avoid a crash than one driving at 80mph.

>You suggested that a slower vehicle was inherently safer. I asked you "how slow do you
>want to go?".

I'm quite happy to start with the speed limit and see how we get on from there.

>I was hoping to point out that we have to make a speed / safety compromise in the interests of
>transport utility.

That compromise has already been made, in that speed limits are mandatory and legally enforceable.

>The only speed safety compromise I can wholeheartedly believe in is the "safe speed" one.

Whereas I join Mr Ripley in the "safe and legal" camp.

>Why not make that one, instead of bleating on about a few mph less, a few mph less, which would
>inevitably sometimes apply when it wasn't needed, and equally sometimes fail to apply when it
>was needed?

Hello, Mr Straw! Back again? Nice to see you.

>Looks like I got the wrong figure for Sweden, I had 7.9 in my spreadsheet and checked it against
>IRTAD. 7.9 is there in the next column. Sorry about that.

De nada. Anyone can make an honest mistake.
 
"Michael MacClancy" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
>
> So I don't understand your argument at all. The only way to alter pre-crash energy is to decrease
> the mass of the vehicle or reduce its velocity. What are you getting at?

Keep up Michael. Obviously, if only a small proportion of the pre-crash energy is actually
dissipated in the crash -- say, for the sake of argument, 2% -- then doubling the pre-crash energy,
but improving the driver's response in negative time before the initial conditions are defined and
factoring in the Advanced Driver coefficient and allowing rho alpha by the driver's age of the
energy to leak through a worm-hole it is obvious that, by driving faster you have more time to react
and can therefore reduce the crash energy to a vanishing small percentage.

This analysis works perfectly in the rift in the space time continuum that is P*ul Sm*th.

Have a nice day.

T
 
Paul Smith <[email protected]> writes:
> On 03 Mar 2003 21:26:37 +0000, Alan Braggins <[email protected]> wrote:
> >> How are YOU going to slow US down without risking altering our responses?
>
> >If you aren't capable of slowing yourself down, by jailing you for driving while disquailified,
> >ultimately.
>
> Suppose we use threats to slow everyone down to exactly the speed
> limit. Everyone drives with one eye on the speedo in case some invisible police robot catches
> them.

Then they will ultimately be disqualified for driving without due care and attention, not for
speeding. Most of us are capable of keeping a roughly constant speed without more than an occasional
glance at the speedo. If it's necessary to meet your strawman condition that the speed never exceeds
the limit by even a tiny bit, you can simply make the average a fraction below the limit instead of
sticking religiously exactly to it. "A limit, not a target", remember?
 
"Paul Smith" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
>
> Accident situations develop. Sometimes you might find a contributory factor five seconds before
> the "first error". Just open your mind to the possibility of looking more widely and learning
> more. You're compartmentalising, and it isn't a safe approach to accident understanding.

You clearly have no understanding of modelling techniques.

T
 
On Tue, 04 Mar 2003 09:12:34 +0000, "Just zis Guy, you know?" <[email protected]> wrote:

>>All these imaginary accidents that get bandied about... "suddenly someone steps into the road...
>>he only has 100 feet to stop in ... if he had been going 5 mph slower he could have stopped"
>>rubbish.

>Those would be the imaginary accidents which account for the 9,000 pedestrians KSI.

No. I was talking about hypothetical accidents. As you very well know.

>>Accident situations develop. Sometimes you might find a contributory factor five seconds before
>>the "first error". Just open your mind to the possibility of looking more widely and learning
>>more. You're compartmentalising, and it isn't a safe approach to accident understanding.

>Accident situations develop slower at slower speeds, and the consequences are less severe.
>Sometimes you might find a the extra few seconds are enough to turn the "first error" into a near
>miss instead of a crash. Just open your mind to the possibility of looking more widely and learning
>more. You're compartmentalising, and it isn't a safe approach to accident understanding.

You're just being stupid.

>I suggest that rather than modelling your approach on Germany, whose roads are 60% more deadly than
>ours, you look at the only country in Europe whose roads are safer, and where they have set an
>ambitious target of eliminating serious injury accidents. Sweden's approach includes reducing
>limits in built-up areas to 30km/h - they've calculated that journey times might be up to 2 3/4
>minutes longer, a good trade for casualty reductions of 70% or more.

Oh, Sweden. Right. Their fatals are rising. Good plan.

And their road are NOT safer than ours.
--
Paul Smith Scotland, UK http://www.safespeed.org.uk please remove "XYZ" to reply by email speed
cameras cost lives
 
On Tue, 04 Mar 2003 09:16:03 +0000, "Just zis Guy, you know?" <[email protected]> wrote:

>>I don't know of any "proper" national figure that puts Sweden ahead of the UK.

>TSGB. The Usual Suspects.

I don't know of anything in TSGB that puts Sweden ahead. What table?

>>You might have looked at "injury accidents" but as far as I know, there are such big variations in
>>definitions and reporting that the figures are not comparable from country to country.

>No figures are - even the definition of fatal differs, and the thoroughness of data collection is
>not uniform.

Really? Try TSGB table 8.7.
--
Paul Smith Scotland, UK http://www.safespeed.org.uk please remove "XYZ" to reply by email speed
cameras cost lives
 
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