Should DSC change tactics for stage 15?



J

Joe Blow

Guest
Now that T-mobile has finally figured out that you have to blow up the
Blue Train before it has a chance to leave the station, I wonder if
Bruyneel will rethink what they can do to get Lance a little help out
on the road (not that he really seems to need it).

Is there anything DSC can do to minimize the inevitable kamikaze
attacks that are sure to come tomorrow?

Perhaps putting Popovych and/or Hincapie in an early break? I seem to
remember them doing something like that in a previous tour (Heras or
Rubiera?) and the rider was able drop back and help out.
 
"Joe Blow" <[email protected]> a écrit dans le message de news:
[email protected]...
>
> Now that T-mobile has finally figured out that you have to blow up the
> Blue Train before it has a chance to leave the station, I wonder if
> Bruyneel will rethink what they can do to get Lance a little help out
> on the road (not that he really seems to need it).
>
> Is there anything DSC can do to minimize the inevitable kamikaze
> attacks that are sure to come tomorrow?
>
> Perhaps putting Popovych and/or Hincapie in an early break? I seem to
> remember them doing something like that in a previous tour (Heras or
> Rubiera?) and the rider was able drop back and help out.


Today's strategy was dictated by the topography of the stage- an HC climb
immediately followed by another hard (cat 1) climb. While it allowed a team
to put enough pressure on to drop the DSC boys without a chance to make it
back to Lance before the finish, it also is the type of stage where having a
team isn't all that critical. Lance won't get dropped on the descent, and
there wasn't any flat between the peaks.

The HC climb doesn't come until the finish tomorrow, so maybe DSC feels that
they can keep up over the cat 1 climbs before that. If not, maybe sending a
rider to be there after the Col du Menthe where there's 20 or 30 kms before
the next climb isn't such a bad idea.

I remember the 1986 TdF where Hinault and Bauer went up the road. Zimmerman
stayed with Lemond, the yellow jersey, on the Telegraph. Lemond hit the gas
on the descent and Zimmerman couldn't keep up. Greg hooked up with his
teammates and they powered away from Zimmerman on the flats all the way to
L'Alpe d'Huez Zimmerman had to chase by himself and lost not only big
minutes, but also energy that he lacked when climbing the last mountain. You
can bet Zimmerman wished he'd had a teammate waiting for him once he got off
the Telegraph.
 
Joe Blow wrote:
>
> Perhaps putting Popovych and/or Hincapie in an early break?


Not a bad idea.
 
On Sun, 17 Jul 2005 00:03:26 GMT, gwhite <[email protected]> wrote:

>
>
>Joe Blow wrote:
>>
>> Perhaps putting Popovych and/or Hincapie in an early break?

>
>Not a bad idea.



JFC, for what?

Please explain to me how that is going to do ANYTHING on a stage like
that.
 
David Ferguson wrote:
> On Sun, 17 Jul 2005 00:03:26 GMT, gwhite <[email protected]> wrote:


> >> Perhaps putting Popovych and/or Hincapie in an early break?

> >Not a bad idea.

>
> JFC, for what?
>
> Please explain to me how that is going to do ANYTHING on a stage like
> that.


When the break gets caught before the ascent of the last climb,
Armstrong has a teammate to do the pacesetting and clean up
anybody that tries to get away before the climb or on the lower
slopes. Then the teammate blows sky high, but by that point
Armstrong needs to be able to take care of the remnants himself
anyway.

Any other team could try this too. The problem is having the
GC guy who can finish it off on the last climb. It is hard to
beat the strongest guy in the race if he gets to the bottom
of the last climb fresh.

Discovery may not do this - they rarely do (though they did
in the Vuelta with Landis and Heras, on a somewhat different
stage). But it is a legitimate strategy.
 
On 16 Jul 2005 18:47:55 -0700, "[email protected]"
<[email protected]> wrote:

>David Ferguson wrote:
>> On Sun, 17 Jul 2005 00:03:26 GMT, gwhite <[email protected]> wrote:

>
>> >> Perhaps putting Popovych and/or Hincapie in an early break?
>> >Not a bad idea.

>>
>> JFC, for what?
>>
>> Please explain to me how that is going to do ANYTHING on a stage like
>> that.

>
>When the break gets caught before the ascent of the last climb,
>Armstrong has a teammate to do the pacesetting and clean up
>anybody that tries to get away before the climb or on the lower
>slopes. Then the teammate blows sky high, but by that point
>Armstrong needs to be able to take care of the remnants himself
>anyway.
>
>Any other team could try this too. The problem is having the
>GC guy who can finish it off on the last climb. It is hard to
>beat the strongest guy in the race if he gets to the bottom
>of the last climb fresh.
>
>Discovery may not do this - they rarely do (though they did
>in the Vuelta with Landis and Heras, on a somewhat different
>stage). But it is a legitimate strategy.



4 Cat 1s before the last climb, and anyone thinks Popo and/or George
is going to be there to "paceset and clean up"?

It's a strategy for a day like Stage 8 or Stage 10 but not like this
one.

They would be toast by the 3rd climb. In my humble opinion.

D
 
David Ferguson wrote:

> 4 Cat 1s before the last climb, and anyone thinks Popo and/or George
> is going to be there to "paceset and clean up"?
>
> It's a strategy for a day like Stage 8 or Stage 10 but not like this
> one.
>
> They would be toast by the 3rd climb. In my humble opinion.


The break would have to build a gap on the opening flatter parts
of the stage and then ride tempo on the climbs. That's usually
what happens.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2002/tour02/?id=results/stage12

http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2004/tour04/?id=results/stage13

In both stages the remnants of the early break were caught only
after the start of the last climb. (In 2003 Simoni stayed away
to win on a somewhat similar stage.) The breaks had good riders
but not absolute top rank climbers - Voigt, Rasmussen (before he
was a top climber in the Tour), Jalabert.
 
On 16 Jul 2005 19:27:39 -0700, "[email protected]"
<[email protected]> wrote:

>
>
>David Ferguson wrote:
>
>> 4 Cat 1s before the last climb, and anyone thinks Popo and/or George
>> is going to be there to "paceset and clean up"?
>>
>> It's a strategy for a day like Stage 8 or Stage 10 but not like this
>> one.
>>
>> They would be toast by the 3rd climb. In my humble opinion.

>
>The break would have to build a gap on the opening flatter parts
>of the stage and then ride tempo on the climbs. That's usually
>what happens.
>
>http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2002/tour02/?id=results/stage12
>
>http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2004/tour04/?id=results/stage13
>
>In both stages the remnants of the early break were caught only
>after the start of the last climb. (In 2003 Simoni stayed away
>to win on a somewhat similar stage.) The breaks had good riders
>but not absolute top rank climbers - Voigt, Rasmussen (before he
>was a top climber in the Tour), Jalabert.



Are you completely retarded?

What was said was that it might be a good idea - "Perhaps putting
Popovych and/or Hincapie in an early break?"

I ask "Please explain to me how that is going to do ANYTHING on a
stage like that."

Then you start talking about "When the break gets caught before the
ascent of the last climb,"

To which I reply "4 Cat 1s before the last climb, and anyone thinks
Popo and/or George is going to be there to "paceset and clean up"?'
After being in an early break? He's going to send Popp and George on
an early break and expect them to pace set and clean up at the base of
the last climb?

Then you give me two links to stages where they chased down early
breaks(were not in them mind you, but chased them down) by the bottom
of the last hill.

Those two scenarios have absofukinglultey nothing to do with sending
any Postal/DSC team members in an early break. Let alone the two
strongest supporters.

You either misunderstood the original question about putting them in
an early break or you are just trolling.

If you think they are going to send Popo and George in an early break
so they will be there at the catch and ready to "pace set and clean
up" you have never been on a bike for more than 50 miles and have
never gone up a hill bigger than one you'd sleigh ride down.

D
 
David Ferguson wrote:

>
> Those two scenarios have absofukinglultey nothing to do with sending
> any Postal/DSC team members in an early break. Let alone the two
> strongest supporters.
>
> If you think they are going to send Popo and George in an early break
> so they will be there at the catch and ready to "pace set and clean
> up" you have never been on a bike for more than 50 miles and have
> never gone up a hill bigger than one you'd sleigh ride down.
>
> D


I totally agree. *If* they miraculously made it to the bottom of the
final climb without being caught, they'd be wasted. Look how "fresh"
Totschnig was on the last climb today.

No, the Train will be in full force tomorrow... it's the day they've
been saving themselves for.
 
David Ferguson wrote:
> On 16 Jul 2005 19:27:39 -0700, "[email protected]"


> >http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2002/tour02/?id=results/stage12
> >
> >http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2004/tour04/?id=results/stage13


> ...Then you start talking about "When the break gets caught before the
> ascent of the last climb,"
>
> To which I reply "4 Cat 1s before the last climb, and anyone thinks
> Popo and/or George is going to be there to "paceset and clean up"?'
> After being in an early break? He's going to send Popp and George on
> an early break and expect them to pace set and clean up at the base of
> the last climb?
>
> Then you give me two links to stages where they chased down early
> breaks(were not in them mind you, but chased them down) by the bottom
> of the last hill.
>
> Those two scenarios have absofukinglultey nothing to do with sending
> any Postal/DSC team members in an early break. Let alone the two
> strongest supporters.


Dumbass,

I didn't pick those stages randomly. Maybe I should have given
you links to the profiles to spell it out. Those were two stages
in previous Tours that go over some of the same climbs as
tomorrow's stage. Both were 200km, tomorrow's is 206km. The
point was that an early break of good but not GC contender riders
could stay away until the final climb. I'd guess that Hincapie
or Popovych (or Savoldelli, or Rubiera or Azevedo in previous years,
though they seem a little tired now) are at that level - if one
of them got into an escape with a few good riders, they could make
it over the next to last climb before getting caught. That still
leaves enough Discoverers to ride tempo and control the peleton.

I don't think they _will_ do this. It isn't Johan's style, and
it's probably not necessary because there is no flat in between
the final climbs (where you might want an extra worker even
though he pops when the hill starts). But they are physically
capable of it.

> You either misunderstood the original question about putting them in
> an early break or you are just trolling.
>
> If you think they are going to send Popo and George in an early break
> so they will be there at the catch and ready to "pace set and clean
> up" you have never been on a bike for more than 50 miles and have
> never gone up a hill bigger than one you'd sleigh ride down.


I have never ridden up a hill I could sleigh ride down,
because my rear wheel loses traction in the snow when I
pedal hard enough to tow a sled. You're wrong anyway,
but it doesn't matter what I can do, it matters what the
peleton can do. I suck, of course, but my lack of talent has
nothing to do with July; leave settling arguments by appeals
to riding ability to Kunich and Pappy.
 
On Sat, 16 Jul 2005 22:55:41 -0400, David Ferguson wrote:
> If you think they are going to send Popo and George in an early break


You summarized the discussion, but you never said *why* you don't think it
will happen. Do you think Popovich and Hincapie are worse climbers than
the ones Ben mentioned, or do you think the pelOton would never let them
go, or do you think the profile is not suited for a long breakaway, or is
there some other reason?

I think it could happen, but I don't see much benefit. Most of the usual
suspects will probably stay together until the bottom of the last climb,
and if they do, both Popovich and Hincapie could very well be there too
and have been of help to Armstrong on the way. Not that they're really
needed there either, that's the beauty of riding in the mountains with the
strongest rider in your team, but it's playing safe.

That's why Bruyneel is deemed a master tactician: he a) has the strongest
rider and b) always plays it safe.

--
Firefox Browser - Rediscover the web - http://getffox.com/
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On Sun, 17 Jul 2005 12:46:16 +0200, Ewoud Dronkert
<[email protected]> wrote:

>On Sat, 16 Jul 2005 22:55:41 -0400, David Ferguson wrote:
>> If you think they are going to send Popo and George in an early break

>
>You summarized the discussion, but you never said *why* you don't think it
>will happen. Do you think Popovich and Hincapie are worse climbers than
>the ones Ben mentioned, or do you think the pelOton would never let them
>go, or do you think the profile is not suited for a long breakaway, or is
>there some other reason?
>
>I think it could happen, but I don't see much benefit. Most of the usual
>suspects will probably stay together until the bottom of the last climb,
>and if they do, both Popovich and Hincapie could very well be there too
>and have been of help to Armstrong on the way. Not that they're really
>needed there either, that's the beauty of riding in the mountains with the
>strongest rider in your team, but it's playing safe.
>
>That's why Bruyneel is deemed a master tactician: he a) has the strongest
>rider and b) always plays it safe.



It's not that it can't happen. And if they do it could be part of some
magic tactic.

But as you said, I can't see it being any great benefit unless a GC
contender is in there too.

My point is that doing it with the expectations of pace setting and
cleaning up is not realistic. Not impossible, but not realistic.

I hope they do so we can see.

D
 
On Sat, 16 Jul 2005 14:59:51 -0500, Joe Blow wrote:
> Perhaps putting Popovych and/or Hincapie in an early break?


Well, you nailed it, Hincapie in the break.

--
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On 07/16/2005 08:55 PM, in article
[email protected], "David Ferguson"
<[email protected]> wrote:

> If you think they are going to send Popo and George in an early break
> so they will be there at the catch and ready to "pace set and clean
> up" you have never been on a bike for more than 50 miles and have
> never gone up a hill bigger than one you'd sleigh ride down.



So why is George in the early break today?



--
Steven L. Sheffield
stevens at veloworks dot com
bellum pax est libertas servitus est ignoratio vis est
ess ay ell tea ell ay kay ee sea eye tee why you ti ay aitch
aitch tee tea pea colon [for word] slash [four ward] slash double-you
double-yew double-ewe dot veloworks dot com [foreword] slash
 
On Sun, 17 Jul 2005 12:04:32 GMT, "Steven L. Sheffield"
<[email protected]> wrote:

>On 07/16/2005 08:55 PM, in article
>[email protected], "David Ferguson"
><[email protected]> wrote:
>
>> If you think they are going to send Popo and George in an early break
>> so they will be there at the catch and ready to "pace set and clean
>> up" you have never been on a bike for more than 50 miles and have
>> never gone up a hill bigger than one you'd sleigh ride down.

>
>
>So why is George in the early break today?


That's exactly my question. What is that really going to do?

I guess we'll find out.

If it's "pace set and clean up" on the last hill, as has been
surmised, I will concede to the all knowing.

D
 
"David Ferguson" <[email protected]> a écrit dans le message de
news: [email protected]...
> On Sun, 17 Jul 2005 12:04:32 GMT, "Steven L. Sheffield"
> <[email protected]> wrote:
>
>>On 07/16/2005 08:55 PM, in article
>>[email protected], "David Ferguson"
>><[email protected]> wrote:
>>
>>> If you think they are going to send Popo and George in an early break
>>> so they will be there at the catch and ready to "pace set and clean
>>> up" you have never been on a bike for more than 50 miles and have
>>> never gone up a hill bigger than one you'd sleigh ride down.

>>
>>
>>So why is George in the early break today?

>
> That's exactly my question. What is that really going to do?
>
> I guess we'll find out.
>
> If it's "pace set and clean up" on the last hill, as has been
> surmised, I will concede to the all knowing.
>
> D

Stage win, Enter in the top 5. Already, the presence of Pereiro and Hincapie
in the break means that it's CSC leading the peloton at 60kph to protect
Basso's GC position.
 
On Sun, 17 Jul 2005 14:40:48 +0200, "trg"
<[email protected]> wrote:

>"David Ferguson" <[email protected]> a écrit dans le message de
>news: [email protected]...
>> On Sun, 17 Jul 2005 12:04:32 GMT, "Steven L. Sheffield"
>> <[email protected]> wrote:
>>
>>>On 07/16/2005 08:55 PM, in article
>>>[email protected], "David Ferguson"
>>><[email protected]> wrote:
>>>
>>>> If you think they are going to send Popo and George in an early break
>>>> so they will be there at the catch and ready to "pace set and clean
>>>> up" you have never been on a bike for more than 50 miles and have
>>>> never gone up a hill bigger than one you'd sleigh ride down.
>>>
>>>
>>>So why is George in the early break today?

>>
>> That's exactly my question. What is that really going to do?
>>
>> I guess we'll find out.
>>
>> If it's "pace set and clean up" on the last hill, as has been
>> surmised, I will concede to the all knowing.
>>
>> D

>Stage win, Enter in the top 5. Already, the presence of Pereiro and Hincapie
>in the break means that it's CSC leading the peloton at 60kph to protect
>Basso's GC position.
>



11:55 - Discovery Channel Leads The Peloton
The peloton is being led by the Discovery Channel team. This squad has
one representative in the 14-man escape group (Hincapie) which is
about to contest the first intermediate sprint (at the 37km mark).
 
On 07/17/2005 06:45 AM, in article
[email protected], "David Ferguson"
<[email protected]> wrote:

> On Sun, 17 Jul 2005 14:40:48 +0200, "trg"
> <[email protected]> wrote:
>
>> "David Ferguson" <[email protected]> a écrit dans le message de
>> news: [email protected]...
>>> On Sun, 17 Jul 2005 12:04:32 GMT, "Steven L. Sheffield"
>>> <[email protected]> wrote:
>>>
>>>> On 07/16/2005 08:55 PM, in article
>>>> [email protected], "David Ferguson"
>>>> <[email protected]> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> If you think they are going to send Popo and George in an early break
>>>>> so they will be there at the catch and ready to "pace set and clean
>>>>> up" you have never been on a bike for more than 50 miles and have
>>>>> never gone up a hill bigger than one you'd sleigh ride down.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> So why is George in the early break today?
>>>
>>> That's exactly my question. What is that really going to do?
>>>
>>> I guess we'll find out.
>>>
>>> If it's "pace set and clean up" on the last hill, as has been
>>> surmised, I will concede to the all knowing.
>>>
>>> D

>> Stage win, Enter in the top 5. Already, the presence of Pereiro and Hincapie
>> in the break means that it's CSC leading the peloton at 60kph to protect
>> Basso's GC position.
>>

>
>
> 11:55 - Discovery Channel Leads The Peloton
> The peloton is being led by the Discovery Channel team. This squad has
> one representative in the 14-man escape group (Hincapie) which is
> about to contest the first intermediate sprint (at the 37km mark).




That was 2 hours and 50 minutes prior to your post.

At the time you posted:

14:39 - CSC Riders Back At Front Of Peloton
There are two CSC riders now setting the pace for the peloton. They are
Nicki Sorensen and Bobby Julich. The last time check had the bunch 17¹50"
behind the 14 escapees.

14:49 - Sorensen & Sastre Now Leading Peloton
The CSC team has sent Nicki Sorensen and Carlos Sastre to the front of the
peloton. The pace they¹re setting is too much for many of riders in the
peloton. A ¹grupetto¹ is forming at the back. The latest rider to be dropped
by the bunch is Stefano Garzelli.


--
Steven L. Sheffield
stevens at veloworks dot com
bellum pax est libertas servitus est ignoratio vis est
ess ay ell tea ell ay kay ee sea eye tee why you ti ay aitch
aitch tee tea pea colon [for word] slash [four ward] slash double-you
double-yew double-ewe dot veloworks dot com [foreword] slash