Simoni: Ullrich's best teammate or worst enemy?

Discussion in 'Road Cycling' started by Tony, Jul 7, 2003.

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  1. Tony

    Tony Guest

    If Gilberto Simoni can be taken at his word and actually attacks Armstrong on the mountain stages, I
    can see a few possible scenarios playing out.

    The first- Simoni sticks in some big attacks on the high profile mountain stages that Armstrong's
    ego won't let him ignore and the continued efforts to prove himself against Simoni fatigue him,
    while Ullrich does the climbs at his own pace, knowing he can't match all the accelerations, but
    keeping time losses and time in the red zone to a minimum. One day, all this catches with Armstrong
    and Ullrich is still feeling within his limits and puts the hurt on Armstrong

    The second- Simoni's swashbuckling climbing style drags Armstrong up a notch and the two have some
    classic duels, leaving Jan to fend for himself as the best of the others, losing time each day to
    Armstrong, but solidifying his 2nd place. I think Simoni quits after he bags some stage wins.

    The third- Depending on where he is in the GC, Armstrong lets Simoni have his days in the mountains,
    containing any big time losses and just grins and bears all the ensuing Simoni and press comments
    about "world's greatest climber" with an eye towards the bigger prize.

    I wonder which way it will turn out? And by the way, in my opinion, you can forget about any Spanish
    coalition. Every year we hear the same predictions and see the same results- defensive riding. My
    guess is that the last thing the Spanish teams will want is for a rival Spanish team to profit from
    their work.
     
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  2. Keith

    Keith Guest

    >The second- Simoni's swashbuckling climbing style drags Armstrong up a notch and the two have some
    >classic duels, leaving Jan to fend for himself as the best of the others, losing time each day to
    >Armstrong, but solidifying his 2nd place. I think Simoni quits after he bags some stage wins.

    Interesting read, but Simoni ain't no Pantani or even Heras...Just look at the tiny gaps he created
    in the mountain stages of the Giro with an anemic competition lead by a guy who hadn't raced for a
    year and who nearly collapsed during the third week. Armstrong could probably shake him off his
    derailer without even noticing. The only hope I see for Armstrong to get "hurt" in the ITTs. Too
    bad the first ITT will only come after the Alpe d'Huez where Armstrong will probably already have a
    nice lead.

    As for the Spaniards, only Heras has some class and he's been "bought"...I wonder how anyone could
    think that Joseba "RatFace" Beloki will ever win the Tour...
     
  3. Nick Burns

    Nick Burns Guest

    Lance has been told to attack only within X kilometers before the finish. I am using X for the
    variable because I don't have enough detailed info on his current form.

    You are right though in that if he can be provoked from a long ways away from the finish, he could
    be worn out after it happens a few times. Witness the stage in 2000 when he bonked. That was really
    the only time he ever has shown any weakness. He will tell you until the day he dies that is was
    because he did not eat because he is trying to cover his only weakness (long attacks). Truthfully,
    if he was still going for stage wins, he is probably strong enough to attack from anywhere on any
    given stage and have a chance to win. I just don't think he can afford to do that while there are
    strong GC contenders in the race.

    "Tony" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:[email protected]...
    > If Gilberto Simoni can be taken at his word and actually attacks Armstrong on the mountain stages,
    > I can see a few possible scenarios playing out.
    >
    > The first- Simoni sticks in some big attacks on the high profile mountain stages that Armstrong's
    > ego won't let him ignore and the continued efforts to prove himself against Simoni fatigue him,
    > while Ullrich does the climbs at his own pace, knowing he can't match all the accelerations, but
    > keeping time losses and time in the red zone to a minimum. One day, all this catches with
    > Armstrong and Ullrich is still feeling within his limits and puts the hurt on Armstrong
    >
    > The second- Simoni's swashbuckling climbing style drags Armstrong up a notch and the two have some
    > classic duels, leaving Jan to fend for himself as the best of the others, losing time each day to
    > Armstrong, but solidifying his 2nd place. I think Simoni quits after he bags some stage wins.
    >
    > The third- Depending on where he is in the GC, Armstrong lets Simoni have his days in the
    > mountains, containing any big time losses and just grins and bears all the ensuing Simoni and
    > press comments about "world's greatest climber" with an eye towards the bigger prize.
    >
    > I wonder which way it will turn out? And by the way, in my opinion, you can forget about any
    > Spanish coalition. Every year we hear the same predictions and see the same results- defensive
    > riding. My guess is that the last thing the Spanish teams will want is for a rival Spanish team to
    > profit from their work.
     
  4. Raptor

    Raptor Guest

    Nick Burns wrote:
    > Lance has been told to attack only within X kilometers before the finish. I am using X for the
    > variable because I don't have enough detailed info on his current form.
    >
    > You are right though in that if he can be provoked from a long ways away from the finish, he could
    > be worn out after it happens a few times. Witness the stage in 2000 when he bonked. That was
    > really the only time he ever has shown any weakness. He will tell you until the day he dies that
    > is was because he did not eat because he is trying to cover his only weakness (long attacks).
    > Truthfully, if he was still going for stage wins, he is probably strong enough to attack from
    > anywhere on any given stage and have a chance to win. I just don't think he can afford to do that
    > while there are strong GC contenders in the race.

    It doesn't matter who attacks where. USPS is strong enough to hoist Lance up any early climbs
    and drag him back into contact if he ever loses it. Then Lance attacks the last climb in his
    usual style. If Ullrich can't stay with him, Lance wins because Beloki and Simoni can't match
    him in the ITTs.

    --
    --
    Lynn Wallace http://www.xmission.com/~lawall "I'm not proud. We really haven't done everything we
    could to protect our customers. Our products just aren't engineered for security." --Microsoft VP in
    charge of Windows OS Development, Brian Valentine.
     
  5. Tom Kunich

    Tom Kunich Guest

    I suppose some people must dream. After all, Simoni has always been so good in the Tour and Ullrich
    is in such good practice and Lance has always been so stupid. Hey Tony, isn't embarassing to write
    something like you just did?

    Watch the Spanish - not Simoni who will have one really good mountain stage.

    "Tony" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:[email protected]...
    > If Gilberto Simoni can be taken at his word and actually attacks Armstrong on the mountain stages,
    > I can see a few possible scenarios playing out.
    >
    > The first- Simoni sticks in some big attacks on the high profile mountain stages that Armstrong's
    > ego won't let him ignore and the continued efforts to prove himself against Simoni fatigue him,
    > while Ullrich does the climbs at his own pace, knowing he can't match all the accelerations, but
    > keeping time losses and time in the red zone
    to
    > a minimum. One day, all this catches with Armstrong and Ullrich is still feeling within his limits
    > and puts the hurt on Armstrong
    >
    > The second- Simoni's swashbuckling climbing style drags Armstrong up
    a
    > notch and the two have some classic duels, leaving Jan to fend for himself as the best of the
    > others, losing time each day to
    Armstrong,
    > but solidifying his 2nd place. I think Simoni quits after he bags some stage wins.
    >
    > The third- Depending on where he is in the GC, Armstrong lets Simoni have his days in the
    > mountains, containing any big time losses and just grins and bears all the ensuing Simoni and
    > press comments about "world's greatest climber" with an eye towards the bigger prize.
    >
    > I wonder which way it will turn out? And by the way, in my opinion, you can forget about any
    > Spanish coalition. Every year we hear the same predictions and see the same results- defensive
    > riding. My
    guess
    > is that the last thing the Spanish teams will want is for a rival Spanish team to profit from
    > their work.
     
  6. Oh boy this is going to be a great tour... How about this one then?: Millar surprises all of them
    and attacks with Mayo...

    leaving the Simoni, Ulrich, Armstrong, Beloki group looking at each other...with neither team
    wishing to do all the work on the climb to pull the other two back...

    :)

    Ed "Tony" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:[email protected]...
    > If Gilberto Simoni can be taken at his word and actually attacks Armstrong on the mountain stages,
    > I can see a few possible scenarios playing out.
    >
    > The first- Simoni sticks in some big attacks on the high profile mountain stages that Armstrong's
    > ego won't let him ignore and the continued efforts to prove himself against Simoni fatigue him,
    > while Ullrich does the climbs at his own pace, knowing he can't match all the accelerations, but
    > keeping time losses and time in the red zone to a minimum. One day, all this catches with
    > Armstrong and Ullrich is still feeling within his limits and puts the hurt on Armstrong
    >
    > The second- Simoni's swashbuckling climbing style drags Armstrong up a notch and the two have some
    > classic duels, leaving Jan to fend for himself as the best of the others, losing time each day to
    > Armstrong, but solidifying his 2nd place. I think Simoni quits after he bags some stage wins.
    >
    > The third- Depending on where he is in the GC, Armstrong lets Simoni have his days in the
    > mountains, containing any big time losses and just grins and bears all the ensuing Simoni and
    > press comments about "world's greatest climber" with an eye towards the bigger prize.
    >
    > I wonder which way it will turn out? And by the way, in my opinion, you can forget about any
    > Spanish coalition. Every year we hear the same predictions and see the same results- defensive
    > riding. My guess is that the last thing the Spanish teams will want is for a rival Spanish team to
    > profit from their work.
     
  7. K. J. Papai

    K. J. Papai Guest

    "E A dos Remedios" <[email protected]> wrote in message
    news:<[email protected]>...
    > Oh boy this is going to be a great tour... How about this one then?: Millar surprises all of them
    > and attacks with Mayo...
    >
    > leaving the Simoni, Ulrich, Armstrong, Beloki group looking at each other...with neither team
    > wishing to do all the work on the climb to pull the other two back...

    Assuming that LANCE and his team are blind or deaf then yes, this could work. Millar is half the
    climber LANCE and Mayo are each.

    > "Tony" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:[email protected]...
    > > If Gilberto Simoni can be taken at his word and actually attacks Armstrong on the mountain
    > > stages, I can see a few possible scenarios playing out.
    > >
    > > The first- Simoni sticks in some big attacks on the high profile mountain stages that
    > > Armstrong's ego won't let him ignore and the continued efforts to prove himself against Simoni
    > > fatigue him, while Ullrich does the climbs at his own pace, knowing he can't match all the
    > > accelerations, but keeping time losses and time in the red zone to a minimum. One day, all this
    > > catches with Armstrong and Ullrich is still feeling within his limits and puts the hurt on
    > > Armstrong
    > >
    > > The second- Simoni's swashbuckling climbing style drags Armstrong up a notch and the two have
    > > some classic duels, leaving Jan to fend for himself as the best of the others, losing time
    > > each day to Armstrong, but solidifying his 2nd place. I think Simoni quits after he bags some
    > > stage wins.
    > >
    > > The third- Depending on where he is in the GC, Armstrong lets Simoni have his days in the
    > > mountains, containing any big time losses and just grins and bears all the ensuing Simoni and
    > > press comments about "world's greatest climber" with an eye towards the bigger prize.
     
  8. K. J. Papai

    K. J. Papai Guest

    Keith <[email protected]> wrote in message news:<[email protected]>...
    > >The second- Simoni's swashbuckling climbing style drags Armstrong up a notch and the two have
    > >some classic duels, leaving Jan to fend for himself as the best of the others, losing time
    > >each day to Armstrong, but solidifying his 2nd place. I think Simoni quits after he bags some
    > >stage wins.
    >
    > Interesting read, but Simoni ain't no Pantani or even Heras...Just look at the tiny gaps he
    > created in the mountain stages of the Giro with an anemic competition lead by a guy who hadn't
    > raced for a year and who nearly collapsed during the third week. Armstrong could probably shake
    > him off his derailer without even noticing. The only hope I see for Armstrong to get "hurt" in the
    > ITTs. Too bad the first ITT will only come after the Alpe d'Huez where Armstrong will probably
    > already have a nice lead.

    Heras will jump on Simoni if Simoni even thinks he can attack LANCE. That will take all the wind out
    of Simoni. Of course Gilberto cannot attack LANCE since he's not in the same league as LANCE and has
    to measure his advances along with LANCE and perhaps attack with 2km to go only.

    Obviously, with this Saturday and Sunday and the first ITT, LANCE ought to have a nice lead should
    the TTT play out nicely tomorrow (July 9).

    > As for the Spaniards, only Heras has some class and he's been "bought"...I wonder how anyone could
    > think that Joseba "RatFace" Beloki will ever win the Tour...

    And Keith (chicken face anonymous) is one mean rat bastard without any class.

    -Ken
     
  9. Exactly !! ;-) Ed

    "K. J. Papai" <[email protected]> wrote in message
    news:[email protected]...
    > "E A dos Remedios" <[email protected]> wrote in message
    news:<[email protected]>...
    > > Oh boy this is going to be a great tour... How about this one then?: Millar surprises all of
    > > them and attacks with Mayo...
    > >
    > > leaving the Simoni, Ulrich, Armstrong, Beloki group looking at each other...with neither team
    > > wishing to do all the work on the climb to
    pull
    > > the other two back...
    >
    > Assuming that LANCE and his team are blind or deaf then yes, this could work. Millar is half the
    > climber LANCE and Mayo are each.
    >
    > > "Tony" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:[email protected]...
    > > > If Gilberto Simoni can be taken at his word and actually attacks Armstrong on the mountain
    > > > stages, I can see a few possible scenarios playing out.
    > > >
    > > > The first- Simoni sticks in some big attacks on the high profile mountain stages that
    > > > Armstrong's ego won't let him ignore and the continued efforts to prove himself against Simoni
    > > > fatigue him, while Ullrich does the climbs at his own pace, knowing he can't match all the
    > > > accelerations, but keeping time losses and time in the red zone to a minimum. One day, all
    > > > this catches with Armstrong and Ullrich is still feeling within his limits and puts the hurt
    > > > on Armstrong
    > > >
    > > > The second- Simoni's swashbuckling climbing style drags Armstrong up a notch and the two have
    > > > some classic duels, leaving Jan to fend for himself as the best of the others, losing time
    > > > each day to Armstrong, but solidifying his 2nd place. I think Simoni quits after he bags some
    > > > stage wins.
    > > >
    > > > The third- Depending on where he is in the GC, Armstrong lets Simoni have his days in the
    > > > mountains, containing any big time losses and just grins and bears all the ensuing Simoni and
    > > > press comments about "world's greatest climber" with an eye towards the bigger prize.
     
  10. [email protected] (K. J. Papai) wrote in message
    news:<[email protected]>...

    > Heras will jump on Simoni if Simoni even thinks he can attack LANCE. That will take all the wind
    > out of Simoni. Of course Gilberto cannot attack LANCE since he's not in the same league as LANCE
    > and has to measure his advances along with LANCE and perhaps attack with 2km to go only.
    >
    > Obviously, with this Saturday and Sunday and the first ITT, LANCE ought to have a nice lead should
    > the TTT play out nicely tomorrow (July 9).

    Why do you spell Lance in all caps?
     
  11. "Christian Davenport" <[email protected]> wrote in message
    news:[email protected]...
    > [email protected] (K. J. Papai) wrote in message
    news:<[email protected]>...
    >
    > > Heras will jump on Simoni if Simoni even thinks he can attack LANCE. That will take all the wind
    > > out of Simoni. Of course Gilberto cannot attack LANCE since he's not in the same league as LANCE
    > > and has to measure his advances along with LANCE and perhaps attack with 2km to go only.
    > >
    > > Obviously, with this Saturday and Sunday and the first ITT, LANCE ought to have a nice lead
    > > should the TTT play out nicely tomorrow (July 9).
    >
    > Why do you spell Lance in all caps?

    It is an orgasmic aid.
     
  12. [email protected] (K. J. Papai) wrote in message
    news:<[email protected]>...
    > Keith <[email protected]> wrote in message news:<[email protected]>...
    > > >The second- Simoni's swashbuckling climbing style drags Armstrong up a notch and the two have
    > > >some classic duels, leaving Jan to fend for himself as the best of the others, losing time each
    > > >day to Armstrong, but solidifying his 2nd place. I think Simoni quits after he bags some stage
    > > >wins.
    > >
    > > Interesting read, but Simoni ain't no Pantani or even Heras...Just look at the tiny gaps he
    > > created in the mountain stages of the Giro with an anemic competition lead by a guy who hadn't
    > > raced for a year and who nearly collapsed during the third week. Armstrong could probably shake
    > > him off his derailer without even noticing. The only hope I see for Armstrong to get "hurt" in
    > > the ITTs. Too bad the first ITT will only come after the Alpe d'Huez where Armstrong will
    > > probably already have a nice lead.
    >
    > Heras will jump on Simoni if Simoni even thinks he can attack LANCE. That will take all the wind
    > out of Simoni. Of course Gilberto cannot attack LANCE since he's not in the same league as LANCE
    > and has to measure his advances along with LANCE and perhaps attack with 2km to go only.
    >
    > Obviously, with this Saturday and Sunday and the first ITT, LANCE ought to have a nice lead should
    > the TTT play out nicely tomorrow (July 9).

    My guess is that Ullrich will probably not be a threat to Armstrong in the col's. Armstrong's team
    is probably strong enough to fend off any attacks that Simoni can launch. Hera's & Beltran are both
    former Vuelta De Espan'a winners and they can keep Lance safe. On the otherhand one cannot discount
    the possibility of a alliance between Simoni, Ullrich and Garzelli. This is probably the only
    possiblity of defeating Lance.
    >
    > > As for the Spaniards, only Heras has some class and he's been "bought"...I wonder how anyone
    > > could think that Joseba "RatFace" Beloki will ever win the Tour...
    >
    > And Keith (chicken face anonymous) is one mean rat bastard without any class.
    >
    > -Ken
     
  13. Raptor

    Raptor Guest

    Nick Burns wrote:
    > I've been trying to figure that ever since he founded the LANCE fan club. Ken is the founding
    > member and long time cycling fan. His support of LANCE goes back almost as far as LANCE's Tour
    > winning streak.

    I have a Motorola/Subaru team cap thrown by Lance from the podium (2nd tier) back in (here I go
    forgetting again) 1993 or 1995 in Salt Lake City. Bleah.

    --
    --
    Lynn Wallace http://www.xmission.com/~lawall "I'm not proud. We really haven't done everything we
    could to protect our customers. Our products just aren't engineered for security." --Microsoft VP in
    charge of Windows OS Development, Brian Valentine.
     
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