So who's going to win Le Tour?

[Threshold]

I agree Armstrong is in very good form, that being said I don't think Armstrong could have beat Contador when Armstrong was in his best form.
Contador is do strong he doesn't need much team support. At least that is what I perceived last year.
Of course all this is theory in a three week race. Lots of things can go wrong.
Heck , sometimes I even have off days in the saddle for no apparent reason.

That is true... yesterday I was actually looking up some videos of Contador doing hill climbs and I seriously do not know how he does it. It definitely is something that is not normal.

That would definitely be an interesting thing to see... younger Armstrong vs Contador of now, but of course, we won't ever see that.

 

[jhuskey]

Basso is one that never shows all his cards. He trains quietly and but always a threat, unless he is banned.
It is just difficult to predict what he will do this time.

 

[Eldrack]

Basso is one that never shows all his cards. He trains quietly and but always a threat, unless he is banned.
It is just difficult to predict what he will do this time.

Basso's biggest issue is that he can't really attack. At the Giro he just rode people off his wheel rather than putting in a big acceleration. He'll struggle to follow Contador when Contador goes full gas and none of the climbs at this years Tour are really steep enough to be able to just ride people off. Armstrong has this issue as well, he can't accelerate like he used to. Wiggo doesn't have much of an attack in him. The Schleck brothers can accelerate hard though, they could break the race up on the climbs.

 

[jhuskey]

In my mind the more complicated question is who comes in second and third.
Looking at the list of possibles to win I would have included Kloden also.
Not that I think he will.

 

[pennstater]

That is true... yesterday I was actually looking up some videos of Contador doing hill climbs and I seriously do not know how he does it. It definitely is something that is not normal.

That would definitely be an interesting thing to see... younger Armstrong vs Contador of now, but of course, we won't ever see that.

I think I would actually take 2001 LA against Contador. I feel that 2001 was LA's strongest performance in the tour. Just my opinion.

 

[Andrija]

I think I would actually take 2001 LA against Contador. I feel that 2001 was LA's strongest performance in the tour. Just my opinion.

Armstrong's 2004. and 2005. performances were pretty much secure too, but the 2002. and 2003. (for sure) would have gone to Contador.
On the other side, Contador's 2007 Tour could have been beaten and we've seen last year.
So, Contador will have to keep his career's best longer than he may have thought. He'll have strong opposition in Schleck's keeping in mind that Frank still has four or five years to win a GT, while Andy is even younger than Contador.
Maybe Contador's generation will give us more than one Tour de France winner.

 

[Scotttri]

I think Contador will win, although I hope someone else does. I dont think Armstrong will be in the top 3 even though he has a strong team. The schlek brothers might be there, but they'd want to be a few minutes up befor the time trial as 52km is a long ITT. I think Basso and Evans are a good shot at the podium as well.

1. Contador
2. Basso
3. Evans

 

[Scott2468]

Sadly, Sky isn't sending its strongest climbers (they seem to be more focused on getting British riders than mounting a strong team), so I don't think Wiggins will have the equivalent of Vande Velde to help him this year. He'll be lucky to make the Top Ten.

Yes, nice post but I don't agree with it all.

I reckon Wiggins & Gerrans might even do the old one, two shuffle and Wiggins will do the grunt work.

Gerrans is my smokey.

He has a point to prove after last years debacle. Sure as sh|t he wont be beaten by Sastre.

 

[Eldrack]

2007 Tour de France. Contador vs Rasmussen. Every time Contador attacked, and he attack very hard many times, Rasmussen matched him.

Of course Contador is probably slightly stronger now, and you can't rely on nailing him in the time trials like you used to. But still, he's not invincible.

 

[Chavez]

2007 Tour de France. Contador vs Rasmussen. Every time Contador attacked, and he attack very hard many times, Rasmussen matched him.

Of course Contador is probably slightly stronger now, and you can't rely on nailing him in the time trials like you used to. But still, he's not invincible.

Not to mention Rasmussen was doped to the gills. That usually helps.

 

[Chavez]

Basso's biggest issue is that he can't really attack. At the Giro he just rode people off his wheel rather than putting in a big acceleration. He'll struggle to follow Contador when Contador goes full gas and none of the climbs at this years Tour are really steep enough to be able to just ride people off..

Well, Indurain was never particularly explosive either, and it worked out OK for him.

 

[slovakguy]

even though the official start list is still a few days off, i'm bucking the group think. kreuziger to the top step. leaky gas have a full quiver and hopefully a strategy like riis used to put sastre on top. mark basso and kreuziger will be gone. mark kreuziger and basso may have enough in him to go away. and the team is far stronger than what contador will have to rely upon. that said, and a. schleck's crash in mind:

kreuziger
contador
a. schleck

 

[Andrija]

I think Basso will be Liquigas' leader. Kreuziger didn't show GT winning form this year, and I think he'll get opportunity only if Basso loses every chance of winning and that might be to late.

 

[slovakguy]

fair enough. i'm just giving r.k. the nod. provided good support in the giro without breaking himself. finished respectably and with honour riding to protect basso. and like i say, i think leaky will be bringing the strongest squad to the tour. truthfully the fly in my ointment is that a. c. will be riding to advantage in the south when the tour should be well and truly on the line. sure basso may be doped to the eyeballs and wanting to complete the double, but it was a tough giro. and to that point one of the reasons i won't really have c. evans in my top five.

 

[alienator]

And there we are: another stupid, brainless doping comment/allegation. Petty, small people. Perhaps the doping turds should also jump in with more classless inuendo about Kirchner's problems being the result of doping. Oh, wait: classless turds have already done that.

 

[tambourlain]

Well, Contador has 43% of the vote - and that is probably a good refelection of his chance of winning. Basso seems to be a little under appreciated in the voting. I think he will have a good performance and he will have a chance to win it. Menchov doesn't seem to be getting any love either. I think that this is the Tour where Menchov shows up with blood bags, like he did for the Giro and the Vuelta, and he will look better than most people expect.

No offence to the Brits. I wouldn't mind seeing a Brit win some some day. But Wiggins will not make the podium.

Armstrong is getting a lot of votes and I suppose that he has a chance. His problem is that he has been unable to get his ITT back since his return to cycling, and it is going to be hard to beat Contador without a good ITT. I think that it will be hard for Contador to ride away from people in the mountains this year. I think his acceleration will give him clearance, but his pace won't keep him clear. I can actually see Lance loosing very little to Contador in the mountains this year. I don't think that Basso will loose much if anything to Contador in the mountains either. Problem is that Contador has a very solid ITT, so a contender has to be able to do better than just match him in the mountains. The biggest chance for anyone beating Contador will come if he can be made to work when he doesn't want to. If he is allowed to follow his team or someone else to 3km from the top of the climbs, at which point he will attack, then forget it; might as well mail him the jersey. He has to be made to work before the final climb. He has to be forced to chase dangerous breaks. The climbs have to be high paced all the way from the bottom of the mountain. Even the climbs before the final climb have to be done at a high pace. Then Contador can be beaten.

 

[tambourlain]

2007 Tour de France. Contador vs Rasmussen. Every time Contador attacked, and he attack very hard many times, Rasmussen matched him.

That has actually happened many times. Unless you are Ricco or DiLuca or Pelizotti, when Contador attacks he is going to get clearance. But Contador's pace can be matched. And a consistent effort by a guy with great pace, like Basso, can bring Contador back. Problem is that bringing him back isn't enough. You have to actually beat him in the mountains, because his ITT is very good. People actually beating Contador in a mountain stage and getting meaningful clearance is now a rare happening. I saw it once this year when Igor Anton rode away from him. But I expect that Contador will be in much better condition for the Tour than he was then.

 

[Andrija]

fair enough. i'm just giving r.k. the nod. provided good support in the giro without breaking himself. finished respectably and with honour riding to protect basso. and like i say, i think leaky will be bringing the strongest squad to the tour. truthfully the fly in my ointment is that a. c. will be riding to advantage in the south when the tour should be well and truly on the line. sure basso may be doped to the eyeballs and wanting to complete the double, but it was a tough giro. and to that point one of the reasons i won't really have c. evans in my top five.

Kreuziger didn't ride Giro. That was Nibali who finished respectably, but he won't ride the Tour.

 

[steve]

Not to mention Rasmussen was doped to the gills. That usually helps.

He didn't fail a test.

 

[Andrija]

Well, Contador has 43% of the vote - and that is probably a good refelection of his chance of winning. Basso seems to be a little under appreciated in the voting. I think he will have a good performance and he will have a chance to win it. Menchov doesn't seem to be getting any love either. I think that this is the Tour where Menchov shows up with blood bags, like he did for the Giro and the Vuelta, and he will look better than most people expect.

No offence to the Brits. I wouldn't mind seeing a Brit win some some day. But Wiggins will not make the podium.

Armstrong is getting a lot of votes and I suppose that he has a chance. His problem is that he has been unable to get his ITT back since his return to cycling, and it is going to be hard to beat Contador without a good ITT. I think that it will be hard for Contador to ride away from people in the mountains this year. I think his acceleration will give him clearance, but his pace won't keep him clear. I can actually see Lance loosing very little to Contador in the mountains this year. I don't think that Basso will loose much if anything to Contador in the mountains either. Problem is that Contador has a very solid ITT, so a contender has to be able to do better than just match him in the mountains. The biggest chance for anyone beating Contador will come if he can be made to work when he doesn't want to. If he is allowed to follow his team or someone else to 3km from the top of the climbs, at which point he will attack, then forget it; might as well mail him the jersey. He has to be made to work before the final climb. He has to be forced to chase dangerous breaks. The climbs have to be high paced all the way from the bottom of the mountain. Even the climbs before the final climb have to be done at a high pace. Then Contador can be beaten.

Menchov could have strong Tour if he stays on his bike. He wasn't the luckiest one in past couple of years.
Good observation about Contadors climbing ability. If they want to beat him they'll have to outnumber him early on the climbs and attack successfully. Saxo can do that, Shack has several options, Rabo... maybe Liquigas.
I think Contador will manage to gain time on Armstrong in mountains (maybe already in the Alps), but I'm not sure if he'll shake off A. Schleck and Basso.
These last two, Menchov and Contador could have problems on cobbles and that's maybe the opportunity for Armstrong to gain some time and force Contador to pull first move in mountains.