So who's going to win Le Tour?



Andrija said:
Kreuziger didn't ride Giro. That was Nibali who finished respectably, but he won't ride the Tour.

yeah, my bad. i even picked nibali. cerebral meltdown. humble apologies.
 
so, any one care to take on friendly international so legal internet wager of oh, let's say $100 US dollars on who will win?
 
roadhouse said:
so, any one care to take on friendly international so legal internet wager of oh, let's say $100 US dollars on who will win?
O.K.
Tell us who's your pick. The same one from the poll?
 
roadhouse said:
but of course, Lance Armstrong. you?
For now, I just can say that Armstrong isn't my pick.
More than one opponent will be in front of him in Paris.
I don't want to pick Contador neither... It would be in conformity with majority.
 
Andrija said:
For now, I just can say that Armstrong isn't my pick.
More than one opponent will be in front of him in Paris.
I don't want to pick Contador neither... It would be in conformity with majority.


okay, we don't have a bet until you choose a rider, is that it? i'm not sure how this is actually supposed to work . if your loser wins then you receive $100 from me and when Lance dominates you give me your $100? sound about right?
 
roadhouse said:
okay, we don't have a bet until you choose a rider, is that it? i'm not sure how this is actually supposed to work . if your loser wins then you receive $100 from me and when Lance dominates you give me your $100? sound about right?
Since you insist on money, I'll bet on Contador.
Sounds right.
 
Andrija said:
Since you insist on money, I'll bet on Contador.
Sounds right.

What if neither Contador or LA win the Tour? You guys should make it highest place between the two of them.
 
Andrija said:
Since you insist on money, I'll bet on Contador.
Sounds right.


okay. and just to cover all bases, if neither one of them win first podium does that make our bet null and void? i'm guessing that would be about right if the each of us is betting only and precisely on only whom will take first podium and neither makes it, not that that actually has a chance of happening, but..
 
Andrija said:
These last two, Menchov and Contador could have problems on cobbles and that's maybe the opportunity for Armstrong to gain some time and force Contador to pull first move in mountains.

My thought is that the cobbles are being overrated as a seperator. First of all, I don't think the cobbles care how much experience you have when they flat your tire. I think the shock of how rough they are can catch a newby by surprise and slow him down. But I expect that Contador has done enough testing that he will not be shocked. Bike handling response is a little slower when the wheel is bouncing around and your hands are bouncing around. So the riders have to allow for that. That's one element where experience probably helps. But still I wouldn't count on the cobbles being a huge disadvantage for Contador and Menchov. I think that the cobbles will increase the frequency of flats and accidents. But Armstrong could be on the wrong end of that kind of thing almost as easily as Contador.

My thinking is that Armstrong's engine is not as big as it used to be. But his gas tank is as big as ever. He will need to play to what he's got. So the perfect mountain stage for him will be one where all the preliminary climbs are hard and fast, where the downhills are hard and fast, where the pace in the flats is high, and where the pace on the final climb is high right from the beginning. In other words, Armstrong needs the kind of stages where all of the energy is wrung out of every rider, right from the start. In that kind of stage he has a chance to beat Contador. On a stage where things are easy going until the final half of the final climb, he has no chance. In a way, Armstrong's riding characteristics now look very much like Basso's.
 
roadhouse said:
okay. and just to cover all bases, if neither one of them win first podium does that make our bet null and void? i'm guessing that would be about right if the each of us is betting only and precisely on only whom will take first podium and neither makes it, not that that actually has a chance of happening, but..
We can bet on their duel too, but it started with: "who will win it".
Lets wait and see if someone else jumps in this bet, if not - we can redefine our bet as a duel.
 
You would need to setup a paypal account or at least have someone hold your $ now before TDF starts.

Otherwise this is just a cute online chat as usual, with no reality.
 
tambourlain said:
My thought is that the cobbles are being overrated as a seperator. First of all, I don't think the cobbles care how much experience you have when they flat your tire. I think the shock of how rough they are can catch a newby by surprise and slow him down. But I expect that Contador has done enough testing that he will not be shocked. Bike handling response is a little slower when the wheel is bouncing around and your hands are bouncing around. So the riders have to allow for that. That's one element where experience probably helps. But still I wouldn't count on the cobbles being a huge disadvantage for Contador and Menchov. I think that the cobbles will increase the frequency of flats and accidents. But Armstrong could be on the wrong end of that kind of thing almost as easily as Contador.
I think that cobbles will make some GC selection.
In 2004. last cobbled sector was further from the finish than it is this year and it still ended some GC ambitions.
I believe too that Contador has done enough testing, but that was out of race. Racing situation can bring unexpected development.
Bad luck can hit every rider, that's unquestionable, but the riders who I've mentioned could suffer some losses because of their own (lack of) ability.
Basso is known as a rider who prefers to stay on asphalt and isn't the best bike handler around. Menchov has fallen in two previous editions of the race (which had serious effect on his performance) and might be little edgy with additional pressure of targeting just Tour this year. Andy Schleck is tall, feather weight rider who, by definition, has problem on cobbles and his latest training crash won't do any good to his state of mind. Contador is similar to Schleck regarding dispositions and experience, but what's more dangerous is his and Vinokourov's attitude towards it. He was there, tested, but alone, without other riders fighting for positions on full gas.If Vinokourov takes responsibility of leading Contador through cobbles, than it could be rough. He has no experience and he's arrogant enough to do something stupid, like choosing the path through which he can pass, but Contador can't.
 
gman0482 said:
You would need to setup a paypal account or at least have someone hold your $ now before TDF starts.

Otherwise this is just a cute online chat as usual, with no reality.
Yeah... It's really cute.
Why should we have to hold to reality all the time?

Do you want to jump in with your bet?

We don't have to make account... Roadhouse will come to my "third world" country and bring me the money, I believe him. He can stay here for a while, just to see what we can do with Franklin and how slow we are.
 
Andrija said:
Yeah... It's really cute.
Why should we have to hold to reality all the time?

Do you want to jump in with your bet?

We don't have to make account... Roadhouse will come to my "third world" country and bring me the money, I believe him. He can stay here for a while, just to see what we can do with Franklin and how slow we are.


if there were a connection of roads all the way to your angry and tired, negligible and dirty little third world independent land exasperation i'd ride my bike all the way there and hand you the money. :)

sorry about earlier, it slips sometimes, didn't mean it with 'hurt' intent. move on.

i'd send you the money but i'm not sure we have a bet and rapidly losing interest. yes or no?
 
roadhouse said:
if there were a connection of roads all the way to your angry and tired, negligible and dirty little third world independent land exasperation i'd ride my bike all the way there and hand you the money. :)
What a colorful description and noble proposition.
Sorry, but you'll have to come flying or sailing. You are overseas.

roadhouse said:
sorry about earlier, it slips sometimes, didn't mean it with 'hurt' intent. move on.
No hard feelings, but your view of the world is funny.

roadhouse said:
i'd send you the money but i'm not sure we have a bet and rapidly losing interest. yes or no?
We have to define some conditions first.
The bet is on only if both riders finish the race.
 
Andrija said:
1.)What a colorful description and noble proposition.
Sorry, but you'll have to come flying or sailing. You are overseas.


2.)No hard feelings, but your view of the world is funny.


3.)We have to define some conditions first.
The bet is on only if both riders finish the race.

1.) i'm not the one overseas, seriously. :)
2.) it's their view of the world that is funny.
3.) they would have to finish the race to win the race, quite obviously, but no, if contador dies while giving birth to child in the middle of the Tour and Lance wins, you owe me $100.
 
roadhouse said:
1.) i'm not the one overseas, seriously. :)
2.) it's their view of the world that is funny.
3.) they would have to finish the race to win the race, quite obviously, but no, if contador dies while giving birth to child in the middle of the Tour and Lance wins, you owe me $100.
You are overseas. You're cowboy, right?

@2)
True. They'll have to finish the race. I was already thinking of duel.
So, we are betting on winner?
 
Andrija said:
You are overseas. You're cowboy, right?

@2)
True. They'll have to finish the race. I was already thinking of duel.
So, we are betting on winner?


yes, winner. if your lady friend wins first podium, i will send you $100. when Lance is done destroying, shattering, jailing all of everyone else's tiny hopes of ever thinking they could match him on a bike or in life for that matter because of him and his life on a bike one last time, you send me $100. i will use your money for prostitute or bicycle tires, i haven't decided yet. :(
 
roadhouse said:
yes, winner. if your lady friend wins first podium, i will send you $100. when Lance is done destroying, shattering, jailing all of everyone else's tiny hopes of ever thinking they could match him on a bike or in life for that matter because of him and his life on a bike one last time, you send me $100. i will use your money for prostitute or bicycle tires, i haven't decided yet. :(
O.K., winner.
Is this bet open for other members?

You've decided to spend money on rubber, if you win.
 

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