So who's going to win Le Tour?

[jhuskey]

Jan Ullrich? He's a friend of yours that you keep in touch with? pretty damn cool..and i agree, superior team outside of Liquigas which i felt were very together throughout the Giro but don't be blindsided by team tactics alone this Tour, I have a feeling Big Lance will do a lot of his own work as will Contador. This time it's for real.

I like to think he is a friend but I don't talk to him often at all.I have more contact with his brother in law and former teammate.I tink Jan has ahard time understanding my hillbilly accent.
Armstrong will need to do some work on his own but his forte is using his team to destroy the peloton by riding a high tempo and controlling the front.Of course they burn their own legs up but it give Armstrong the upper hand if you can't hang once the attack comes.
I must say he is probably the best at this tactic but man to man Contador is the stongest individual in my opinion.
Kloden can usually stay with the front break about 75% of the way up a big climb and will probably be the last teammate of RS to fallback beside Lance.
Stage 14 looks to be interesting.

 

[roadhouse]

I like to think he is a friend but I don't talk to him often at all.I have more contact with his brother in law and former teammate.I tink Jan has ahard time understanding my hillbilly accent.
Armstrong will need to do some work on his own but his forte is using his team to destroy the peloton by riding a high tempo and controlling the front.Of course they burn their own legs up but it give Armstrong the upper hand if you can't hang once the attack comes.
I must say he is probably the best at this tactic but man to man Contador is the stongest individual in my opinion.
Kloden can usually stay with the front break about 75% of the way up a big climb and will probably be the last teammate of RS to fallback beside Lance.
Stage 14 looks to be interesting.

Lance has been holding back thus far, Contador is no where near as strong as him, ass whoopin' is comin', me thinks. and you touched on what i meant earlier about Lance having to singlehandedly win, if and when a teamate cracks, he himself simply can not and on every stage must be prepared to ride solo so to speak. I guess that could be said of any GC..?

i wonder, does anyone know if he has been recently training in France like he has in the past in preparation for the Tour?

 

[Andrija]

Lance has been holding back thus far, Contador is no where near as strong as him, ass whoopin' is comin', me thinks. and you touched on what i meant earlier about Lance having to singlehandedly win, if and when a teamate cracks, he himself simply can not and on every stage must be prepared to ride solo so to speak. I guess that could be said of any GC..?

i wonder, does anyone know if he has been recently training in France like he has in the past in preparation for the Tour?

That is very remote from reality. Maybe Armstrong could beat him in boxing ring, but not on the road.
You're guessing right. That's why The Shack will have to play on more than one card. To try to outnumber, isolate and tire Contador. To put him in position where he'll have to follow every attack. He managed to respond on that versus Saxo last year, but combined strengths of Shack, Saxo, Liquigas and Rabo could cause him more headaches.
Vinokourov could be Contador's way out of trouble if he stays high in GC till the Pyrenees. At least as high as Leipheimer and Kloden and if it's possible as Schleck's.

 

[roadhouse]

That is very remote from reality. Maybe Armstrong could beat him in boxing ring, but not on the road.
You're guessing right. That's why The Shack will have to play on more than one card. To try to outnumber, isolate and tire Contador. To put him in position where he'll have to follow every attack. He managed to respond on that versus Saxo last year, but combined strengths of Shack, Saxo, Liquigas and Rabo could cause him more headaches.
Vinokourov could be Contador's way out of trouble if he stays high in GC till the Pyrenees. At least as high as Leipheimer and Kloden and if it's possible as Schleck's.

in regards to your Contador being stronger than Lance on a bike i'd like to say "Wanna bet?" but that ship has sailed...

 

[Andrija]

in regards to your Contador being stronger than Lance on a bike i'd like to say "Wanna bet?" but that ship has sailed...

Yes, you were on that ship.

 

[roadhouse]

Yes, you were on that ship.

USS Commie Stomper.

 

[Andrija]

USS Commie Stomper.

 

[slovakguy]

given recent events, i'm not sure that saxo will mount a good campaign. riis seems to be a bit ticked off at the news that the schlecks have been involved with the formation of the new team from early on. fabu will more than likely be moving to another team and will be riding for his own results (nothing newsworthy there, but another fracture in "team unity"). looks like a disaster on the horizon for saxo this year. my leaky gas theory ua gaining traction.

 

[jhuskey]

There were not any good coordinated attacks with multiple teams cooperating against one or more riders last year. I doubt that it will change this year.

 

[Andrija]

given recent events, i'm not sure that saxo will mount a good campaign. riis seems to be a bit ticked off at the news that the schlecks have been involved with the formation of the new team from early on. fabu will more than likely be moving to another team and will be riding for his own results (nothing newsworthy there, but another fracture in "team unity"). looks like a disaster on the horizon for saxo this year. my leaky gas theory ua gaining traction.

I don't think Schlecks will give up on their GC ambitions. They'll be united in mountains and that's where they can endanger Contador. Cancellara is already riding for his own results, but maybe he doesn't want to ride for some one's else result who didn't contribute to his result. He won't bury himself like in previous years, he'll ride where he has interests. And that's what any team director has to know about his next contract.

 

[Andrija]

There were not any good coordinated attacks with multiple teams cooperating against one or more riders last year. I doubt that it will change this year.

Yes. They'll probably wait for each other to pull the moves.
They definitely have to try Contador in the Alps, just to be sure how strong he is. It would be ideal if he'd enter the Alps with deficit on all other GC contenders. In that way he'll be forced to follow every attack and to make up some time. Stage three looks like opportunity for cooperation. Teams with ambitions in that stage and GC teams could unite in common interest. Saxo has interest on both sides, but I'm not sure how Schlecks will respond to cobbles.

 

[jhuskey]

I am looking forward to watching all the stages, although RH already has Lance swapping slobber with a hot podium girl in Paris, I think I will watch anyway to see what happens.

 

[slovakguy]

I don't think Schlecks will give up on their GC ambitions. They'll be united in mountains and that's where they can endanger Contador. Cancellara is already riding for his own results, but maybe he doesn't want to ride for some one's else result who didn't contribute to his result. He won't bury himself like in previous years, he'll ride where he has interests. And that's what any team director has to know about his next contract.

never said that the schlecks would give up on their gc chase. pointing out that their path has just become much more difficult. you have to figure that the other six riders (figuring that canc has already brokered a deal with bmc) will need to burnish their images to secure places for next year. so much for saxo's team unity.

 

[Andrija]

never said that the schlecks would give up on their gc chase. pointing out that their path has just become much more difficult. you have to figure that the other six riders (figuring that canc has already brokered a deal with bmc) will need to burnish their images to secure places for next year. so much for saxo's team unity.

I didn't say you've said that about Schlecks, just that their ambitions will provide good campaign for Saxo. Moreover with uncertainty surrounding other team members.
What's the story with Cancellara and BMC? I haven't heard it.

 

[Eldrack]

Check this out:

Police Carry Out Doping Raids In Italy | Cyclingnews.com

Classic timing, just before the tour. Which italy based cyclists are going to get pulled from Le Tour because of this???

 

[slovakguy]

What's the story with Cancellara and BMC? I haven't heard it.

all rumour at the moment, but given the circumstances...

“First I [cancellara] want to talk to the team [saxo]. I can wait,” he told the Swiss site Blick.ch. He has been most consistently linked with signing for the US-based BMC Racing Team, sponsored by the Swiss bike manufacturer.

"We want Cancellara – but we can wait,” said BMC team owner Andy Rihs.

Problems Pile Up For Riis | Cyclingnews.com

 

[Andrija]

all rumour at the moment, but given the circumstances...

“First I [cancellara] want to talk to the team [saxo]. I can wait,” he told the Swiss site Blick.ch. He has been most consistently linked with signing for the US-based BMC Racing Team, sponsored by the Swiss bike manufacturer.

"We want Cancellara – but we can wait,” said BMC team owner Andy Rihs.

Problems Pile Up For Riis | Cyclingnews.com

That's everything I've seen too, about the topic.

 

[Vitessa]

never said that the schlecks would give up on their gc chase. pointing out that their path has just become much more difficult. you have to figure that the other six riders (figuring that canc has already brokered a deal with bmc) will need to burnish their images to secure places for next year. so much for saxo's team unity.

given recent events, i'm not sure that saxo will mount a good campaign. riis seems to be a bit ticked off at the news that the schlecks have been involved with the formation of the new team from early on. fabu will more than likely be moving to another team and will be riding for his own results (nothing newsworthy there, but another fracture in "team unity"). looks like a disaster on the horizon for saxo this year. my leaky gas theory ua gaining traction.

Cancellara has been rumored for BMC since the team was formed last year (along with the Schlecks being rumored for RadioShack, fwiw).

No one is talking about him, but Jakob Fuglsang was right there with Andy all through California, and then took third in the Tour du Suisse. If Riis can get the backing, Fuglsang could lead the next incarnation of Riis' team - whatever it's called. But Fuglsang has to make a good showing at the Tour - and that means showing he can work for the team, not just himself.

Saxo lost a bunch of riders and staff to Sky last year, and still showed up for the Classics and won the Tour du Suisse. They've known this was on the horizon for months, even if it's only getting into the press now. I can't think it will really affect the team - but, hey, anything that gets the talk away from Lance v Contador is fine with me!! I think Saxo is planning to go out with a bang.

 

[Chavez]

Hi All,
I understand how the winner of a sprint stage gets points towards the green jersey, but how do the intermediate sprints work, if, for instance, Cavendish is not in a breakaway? Wouldn't the breakaway riders always get the points for first across the line for the intermediate sprints/KOM climbs etc?

Yep, that's exactly how it would work - as a matter of fact, that's how Hushovd won the points jersey last year - instead of taking on Cav and his leadout train, he went out on a breakaway and piled up points.

 

[joe9t8]

Wiggins for me. Team Sky have spent so much time on fitness and technology that he's sure to beat his third place finish of last year. He's put on a bit more muscle and I think he's ready for it. I just posted a cracking interview with him, and he seems confident - prepared but not cocky - bit.ly/d3PiUE - Can't see Armstrong rivaling his past best