Stage 11: Tarbes-Val d'Aran/Pla-de-Beret (Spain), 208 km

It`s a big day today. Yesterday we`ve already seen that Cuengo, Simoni, Leipheimer, Gonchar and few other riders are not a thread for a good GC place. Today we`re gonna see who is. Can`t wait for it.

 

I think it's going to be brutal tomorrow. I say there will only be 5 (at most) GC contenders left fighting on the slopes of the Pla-de-beret - Landis, Kloden, Evans, Menchov, and Karpets. I think Simoni will be there too, but I can't say he's a threat for the overall right now. Oops Moreau will be there for sure. Rasmussen will go for the early points. Can't wait to see how it all unfolds.

 

I think Simoni was suffering yesterday. He was always at the back of the peloton and he was moving with his shoulders, which he usualy doesn`t.

 

OK, all I saw of him was his flat at the base of the Marie-Blanque, but he appeared to get back on quickly.

 

I saw him before and after the puncture too and he doesn`t look so good. Maybe I`m wrong. We`ll see but I dobut about his shape.

 

Maybe I'm being naive but I'm hopeful we'll see Hincapie making some serious noise tomorrow. In Stage 10 he looked calm and collected at the front of the pack up the Col de Marie Blanque, he seems to be feeling good.

 

Allez Dessel!!!
...

 

It looks as if the big boys are all watching each other and if they are not careful someones going to run off with the prize. All the tours in the past 7 years have been contolled by USPS/DC and I don't think anybody has the team strength to control the tour through to Paris. The Maillot Jaune could change hands a few more times in the next 1.5 weeks. Either tomorrow or day 1 in Alps there will be an attack that places someone on the summit of the podium in 10 days. The big question is WHEN and while everybody watches each other, I would not be surprised to see the unexpected winner surge off the front of the peleton when least expected

 

I strongly diasgree with you because Vuelta has finished in 2003 at Pla-De_Beret and GC top5 in Madrid reached the summit together and the stage was almost identical with Tourmalet added before Aspin. I think GC group will be consist of 20 riders and there will be some breakway as well.

 

The truth is that Pla de Beret is not steep, which means that more riders will be able to come to the finish with best climbers. You mentioned Vuelta 2003. It was strange and somehow interesting one because GC favourites came together to the top of almost every mountain top finish. It happened the same as on Pla de Beret on e.g. Col de Envalira and Sierra de la Pandera as well. That`s why I think that it wasn`t just Pla de Beret why plenty of riders came together but it was mainly because of 03 Vuelta`s competition. It was interesting to see 10 best climbers sprinting on top of the climb. I don`t exclude a chance that it will be the same on this TdF.

 

I am thinking that we may see several groups of 2-3 riders coming in a 15-20 seconds intervals. I believe we will have constant attacks on the final climb because
A) with it being several major climbs, the climbing legs of several competitors won't be quite up to par.
b) Everyone thinks they have a shot at the podium and/or the win, so they will want to gets seconds whenever they can.

I believe the one under the most pressure with be Landis. Eventhough T-Mobile will in share responsibility of controlling the race with Phonak, I htink every contender will try to get rid of Landis because he seems to be far superior in the Time-Trials then the rest of the contender. With another 50km Time Trial left, and all the major contenders trailing about a minute or more already, they know that they will need to be at least a minute ahead of Floyd going into that TT.

Ill pick the stage winner to be Evans, because I dont think the gradient is steep enough for Rasmussen to pull away.

 

This stage could be, and probably will be, absolute chaos. Although TM is strong I don't think it has quite the climbing firepower that USPS/DC have had in the past couple of years. In those years any breakaway would have had its time gap limited, been caught on the last climb and shot out the back with Armstrong going on to win the stage, most likely. This year will be different.

My prediction (probably won't happen):
I predict a breakaway win for starters, as they will be allowed a large time gap to form as T-Mobile won't be able to control the peloton the required extent. Towards the end of the stage (penultimate climb, last climb), other teams will start helping and the gap will come down considerably as teams try to isolate GC contenders. Mostly it will only be GC contenders on the last climb with a few having team mates to support except DC and TM who should have about 3 people each (possibly 4 for DC who will have sheltering all day). I expect TM and DC to place at least one person in the breakaway each. Landis will be isolated as most of his team can't climb, Leipheimer (based on yesterday) will have already gone out the back. Lots of people will attack on the last climb but won't gain too much time as it isn't that steep but enough to put some people right out of contention if they aren't having a good day. Lets face it, by that last climb they are going to be totally knackered.

Rasmussen could well be in the breakaway to gain KoM points then on the last climb, if the break is going to be caught slow down to help Menchov.

 

First hour (mainly flat) covered at 45.9 kph. Thats pretty fast. Guys are going to be really hurting today but if the speed stays that high on the flats and descents then I suspect the pure climbers may be out of luck today, they'll have dead legs before they even hit the climbs.

 

IT appears Mayos legs are already dead, getting dropped in the first few kms of the climb, I am thinking he will not make it into Spain at the moment.

 

Live reports are suggesting he is ready to bail. Seems strange considering the form he was on in the Dauphine. It appears he is having problems with one of his knee's.

 

Shame for Mayo. He`s complaining about cameraman all the time. I`m so curious what`s wrong with him. Sore throat because hotel air condition yesterday. knee problem today...smells about poor excuses.

 

I would really like to see more teammates around Landis. His team looks pretty weak.

 

Uh, oh. Savoldelli getting shelled. The wheels continue to fall off Disco.

 

That isn't good, but with the long descent, I think he will get back on the peleton, Discovery got to hope that he is just going through a bad patch.