Stage 15: Gap - L’Alpe d’Huez, 187km.

[azdroptop]

Koldin didn't have it in the P's even with his team around and Landis, dispite not having a team looked quite strong-It will be an interesting stage especially when you throw in Rabo. A break will get away a steal the show...

 

[Eldrack]

For the break then? At least one french rider. De La Fuente, for mountain points but if he's there it might get brought back by Rabo for Rasmussen. Mind you Rasmussen is quite a way so he could be in the break. At least one Disco rider. Simoni, Cunego. A few more on top of that. It will get thinned down before L'Alpe and then blow apart in the first few kilometres.

At least thats my prediction. Could be totally wrong of course .

 

[jhuskey]

I have only been correct in my predictions this year as far as what will be attempted by some teams and riders.
Most of the outcomes have been contradictary to any of my logic.

 

[patch70]

I am interested that nobody has mentioned Evans. This is the time he has to attack if he has any chance of getting past either Menchov or FLandis.

 

[lwedge]

If Rabo and T- Mobile combine forces they could try and break Landis in the mountains and then fight it out with each other.
Landis is good and consistent,but he ain't Lance.

I think Landis will stay on Menchov and Evans's's's wheel tomorrow and not try any breaks at all. If I were Landis, I would do nothing more now than respond to these guys. I think Pereiro will fall off .

The Guardians Bill Fotheringham (superb writer, a la David Walsh) says that there is an alliance between Banesto (I can't be bothered with using their new Caisse name) and Phonak.
It's an interesting thought.

This explains the 28 minute nap the Peloton took in stage 13. We'll see if Pereiro works with Floyd.


Who's knows....The only given in this TDF is Robbie.


lw

 

[sonicman]

It´ll be between Menchov and Evans in my opinion. They know they´ll lose time to Landis on the TT and they´re already over a minute down... So they have to attack today, tomorrow and Thursday if recquired... I could see Landis being dropped tomorrow if they climb L'Alpe d'Huez at a crazy pace... And at lo Joux-Plane too... And why not at La Toussire...

The dark horse is Pereiro. Will he survive?

 

[jhuskey]

I think Landis will stay on Menchov and Evans's's's wheel tomorrow and not try any breaks at all. If I were Landis, I would do nothing more now than respond to these guys. I think Pereiro will fall off .


This explains the 28 minute nap the Peloton took in stage 13. We'll see if Pereiro works with Floyd.


Who's knows....The only given in this TDF is Robbie.


lw

Yep, Landis is not Lance and I don't believe he can withstand the attacks we have come to know from the past if they do indeed happen.
This may be the year for the smart and devisive cyclist. I am still not convinced Kloden is out of the picture.If he can bring Rogers with him for a while he might do some damage.
If he falls way short tomorrow I will be convinced he has peaked for this tour.

I rode 33 mile,2300 feet of climb through the hill yesterday with the temperaturte peaking out at 94 F before I finished.
I sweated like *****!
How many gallons do you reckon these guy will sweat out tomorrow? Hell at Alpe D Huez!

 

[e-doc]

jhuskey,

You need to climb Carvers Gap (Roan Mt), 15.1 km at 6.5 %. Head north to Johnson City and take a left. Its the big mountain in the distance(and the one the Tour DuPont went over) Was up today, hot and long. Better yet try Beach Mt, the one LA rediscovered himself; 6.1 km at 7.4% Thats a real leg buster.

 

[Bro Deal]

I think Landis will stay on Menchov and Evans's's's wheel tomorrow and not try any breaks at all. If I were Landis, I would do nothing more now than respond to these guys. I think Pereiro will fall off .

That's also the way I see it.

 

[Recidivist]

C'mon Cadel, show them a thing or two in the mountains. I think I'll have the day off on Wednesday after staying up just to shout encouragement at the TV.

 

[tcklyde]

Wild guess that even I don't really believe (but hey, you have to play to win, right?): Ivan Parra survives an early break to grab the stage.

 

[Bro Deal]

Wild guess that even I don't really believe (but hey, you have to play to win, right?): Ivan Parra survives an early break to grab the stage.

Simoni will attempt to get in an early break. He has not shown much form yet this Tour, but I would like to see him pull off a victory.

 

[longbottom]

Simoni lost 20 minutes yesterday. According to the live comments on the official website, he lost contact to the peloton already in the very beginning of the stage, even before the first Cat 3 climb. He does not seem in shape at all, and I would be surprised if he could win today's stage. But then, I guess nobody expected Leipheimer to finish second in Pla de Beret either.

 

[Bro Deal]

Simoni lost 20 minutes yesterday. According to the live comments on the official website, he lost contact to the peloton already in the very beginning of the stage, even before the first Cat 3 climb. He does not seem in shape at all, and I would be surprised if he could win today's stage. But then, I guess nobody expected Leipheimer to finish second in Pla de Beret either.

Doh, that's what you get when you don't watch a stage. He did come to the Tour with the express purpose of winning on Alpe d’Huez.

 

[Ricardo29]

Likelys - Leipheimer, Sastre, Rasmussen, Kloden - all hell bent on time, and therefore stage win.

FLandis, Evans, Menchov - the big 3.
will try just stick with any of the above if they attack and be as close to win as possible without doing too much, keeping one eye on tomorrow. Evans may attack, but i expect so tmoro not today.

GO CADEL

 

[whiteboytrash]

Doh, that's what you get when you don't watch a stage. He did come to the Tour with the express purpose of winning on Alpe d’Huez.

Good call.... Simeoni has one mission at this year's Tour..... d'Huez......

 

[whiteboytrash]

It going to be a mad day.... in previous years the top 3 to 4 spots on GC were decided... the rest of the rider just wanted to protect their postions on GC... ie no one wanted to risk 6th spot on GC with a mad attack to then lose 10 minutes.... however this year is different... there is 10 guys who could win the entire race and their is 10 guys who could lose with a bad day... I think we will see some serious attacking as soon as they hit the Alpe.....

 

[wicklow200]

Today could be the real start of the post Lance era.

Correct me if Im wrong, but none of the main GC contenders has ever really ridden away from a quality field on a tough mountain stage. On this tour Levi, Landis and Menchov have finished together. But they have never really done one on their main rivals. So this is the day they either redefine themselves and the history of the tour or hand the tour to Landis.

Kloden: has no such form in that respect. He hangs on as long as he can with the strongest – but I don’t see him as the type to break the field.

Levi, Menchov: are better in that respect. But have not really ever done a Lance. Menchov has some form in the Vuelta and Dauphine, Levi in Dauphine and our of Germany. But I believe their strengths aren’t significantly better than the main contenders.

Evans: He’s an unknown quantity for me. He can obviously climb. But if he takes yellow today it would be quite a stupendous change in how we view him.

So barring sickness or a crash, I have to say that Landis, based on the facts, will finish with or ahead of all his rivals. Landis to take yellow and the tour today. It won’t be spectacular. All he has to do is stay with the big guys. Which I think is well within his abilities.

For the stage, it could be one of a dozen, but Simoni would have to be a favourite.


I don’t rate Rasmussen that much especially as he should be working for Menchov. Anyone know if Boogerd is punching above his weight on this tour? Does he have previous?

 

[Bro Deal]

For the stage, it could be one of a dozen, but Simoni would have to be a favourite.

Whoever picked Cunego (lim?) above made a good choice. Cunego is now in a large break that looks like it will stay away for a while.

 

[whiteboytrash]

There are reports that Cadel and Landis have a pact... they both know when the other is going to attack... Landis speaks very highly of Evans..... evans did a truck load of work eariler on the climb what Mechov won....

ps I'm at home today watching the stage live...

Today could be the real start of the post Lance era.

Correct me if Im wrong, but none of the main GC contenders has ever really ridden away from a quality field on a tough mountain stage. On this tour Levi, Landis and Menchov have finished together. But they have never really done one on their main rivals. So this is the day they either redefine themselves and the history of the tour or hand the tour to Landis.

Kloden: has no such form in that respect. He hangs on as long as he can with the strongest – but I don’t see him as the type to break the field.

Levi, Menchov: are better in that respect. But have not really ever done a Lance. Menchov has some form in the Vuelta and Dauphine, Levi in Dauphine and our of Germany. But I believe their strengths aren’t significantly better than the main contenders.

Evans: He’s an unknown quantity for me. He can obviously climb. But if he takes yellow today it would be quite a stupendous change in how we view him.

So barring sickness or a crash, I have to say that Landis, based on the facts, will finish with or ahead of all his rivals. Landis to take yellow and the tour today. It won’t be spectacular. All he has to do is stay with the big guys. Which I think is well within his abilities.

For the stage, it could be one of a dozen, but Simoni would have to be a favourite.


I don’t rate Rasmussen that much especially as he should be working for Menchov. Anyone know if Boogerd is punching above his weight on this tour? Does he have previous?