stage 15 predictions please



claggy

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Jun 7, 2003
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this is going to be the tough one not sure what the weather is going to be like but either way it will be tough.
reckon mayo or laiseka will be going for it with their "home" support . of the big guns vino is bound to attack and armstrong should to , to gain time before the tt.

i rode both the tourmalet and luz ardiden a few years back here is my own preview :)

the tourmalet is very hard with a steep section almost straight away as it winds up through the trees with a few hairpins . the section up to la mongie (where it finished last year) gets easier but you can see the top a few kilometres up which is a bit demoralising if your legs are hurting (mine were) the last few kilometers arent too bad but they do drag on a bit especially as you can see the top getting slowly nearer.
the descent isnt too bad but very fast ,steepish at the top but not too many hairpins but the drop off to the sides is pretty scary. there is a fairly flat section before you get to Bareges where it then starts to steepen 15 % i think through the town . several hairpins towards the end but fairly big radius so not too difficult. once you get to the bottom (luz st sauvoir ?) its more or less straight up the final climb . you go through a small town where it just gets very steep and you start to feel it straight away especially after the tourmalet. there was also a headwind coming from the valley which was most welcome when i did it:mad: there arent too many hairpins early on so if the wind is blowing that way it will be extra hard.
with about 7 k to go you go round the corner and see the top up there in the distance (like on the tourmalet it can be demoralising)
when i did it the place was totally deserted but you can guarantee the basque fans will be out in force .
the last 5 ks wind their way up quite steeply through a lot of hairpins . i think with about 2k to go it flattens out a bit , i remember someone passing me and i was able to put a final spurt on to get him back............so if anyone wants to drop someone they will have to do it by then.

hope that helps to explain it a bit:D
 
my prediction: Lance Armstrong

Armstrong will try to attack tomorrow. He'll try hard, perhaps too hard. He'll attack Ullrich, and he might succeed. He will also go for the bonification seconds at the finish, he feels he needs every second. That's why I think he'll win tomorrow.
 
Armstrong has to attack tomorrow, he needs a lot of time on ulrich before the TT and this is his last chance to get it!
 
Either Lance or Mayo but I would be very happy to see Vino attack again.
 
I reckon Armstrong, Ullrich or Mayo

but I'm going for Vino cause hes the only one thats attacking everyday.
 
beautiful morning in luz ardiden . blue sky but there are clouds down in the valleys below
 
Originally posted by Sprinter_989
I reckon Armstrong, Ullrich or Mayo

but I'm going for Vino cause hes the only one thats attacking everyday.

Without someone having a go, cycling is like watching grass grow.
 
15:36 CEST 118.5 km/41 km to go
A small group moves clear of the bunch with Moreau and then Mayo and then the action starts as Ullrich crosses to them. Armstrong is traight on his wheel but he can't hold it for more than a few metres - Ullrich is going away at a rate!

He hasn't dropped him, but Ullrich sounds strong.

I'm reading eagerly.
 
Originally posted by Brizza
He hasn't dropped him, but Ullrich sounds strong.

I'm reading eagerly.


Wow, armstrong fell, but ullrich waited for him to repay the favour.. Lance just passed the leader, and is going to win the stage!
 
another fantastic stage that had a bit of everything.
amazing performance by armstrong especially after the crash and bike problems.
but is it enough ?
 
Jan will have to produce a miracle if he is to beat Lance by more than 1min07 in the TT. I reckon the Tour ended today in terms of the podium.
 
I guess you're right Vo2, if nothing strange happens, I can't imagine that Lance will have another bad day in the Time Trial.

Fact is, that Lance had two bad days in this tour. And although Ullrich acted on it, it was only enough to make it exciting. Not enough to win the Tour this year.

The only thing is, especially this year, that strange things can happen. In this Tour I've seen the expected winner fail, panic and fall (next to the usual control, attack and victory). And he has been lucky, f.i. that Beloki left the race.

So if nothing desastrous strange happens, he will win, but if the Tour keeps on having the twists and turns it has had over the last two weeks, we will not know who will win the Tour until Sunday.
 
Originally posted by TbosS
I guess you're right Vo2, if nothing strange happens, I can't imagine that Lance will have another bad day in the Time Trial.

Fact is, that Lance had two bad days in this tour. And although Ullrich acted on it, it was only enough to make it exciting. Not enough to win the Tour this year.

The only thing is, especially this year, that strange things can happen. In this Tour I've seen the expected winner fail, panic and fall (next to the usual control, attack and victory). And he has been lucky, f.i. that Beloki left the race.

So if nothing desastrous strange happens, he will win, but if the Tour keeps on having the twists and turns it has had over the last two weeks, we will not know who will win the Tour until Sunday.

Not sure if I saw Lance panic, really.. Did see him fail, and get snagged on a purse or something and hit his ass on the pavement. Kudos to Ullrich for not attacking while he was down. Im sometimes amazed by the sportsmanship displayed in professional cycling.
 
@ i2ambler: It might nog have been panic as such, but crisis it was. Armstrong referred a lot to all the things that had gone wrong, and how the bad days affected him. But he seems to be recovered. Now lets wait and see how everybody gets through the restday.
I'm wondering what will happen on wednesday. Normally this wouldnt be a day for GC riders to attack. But well, with Vino any day is a day to attack, he might try. And if Lance has a bad day, which is not likely, Ullrich will attack as well.