Stage 19 TT predictions??

[[email protected]]

>From the first long tt:
Floyd
Sastre @1:10 behind floyd
Pereiro @1:40 behind floyd

Current gc:
Pereiro
Sastre @0:12
Floyd @0:30
Stage 19 is 56km, lumpy, kinda twisty. Similar to the first long tt.
No major climbs.

We have seen gc contenders make noticable improvements in their tts on
late tts in the tdf. I would expect Sastre & Pereiro to do the same
now that its much more important to them. Plus Pereiro will have the
yellow on an extra incentive and get to go last.

Will Cunego hold off Fothen in the young rider competition? Only a 5
second lead at this point
stage 7 results:
Fothen @1:44
Cunego @ 6:23.
Looks like Cunego will have to try this time.

Will T-mobile hold off that other american team, CSC in the team
competition? Only an 8 minute lead now.

So, how many times will Floyd stop to change bikes in the last TT?

 

[Bucky]

All I know is whatever predictions are made will be totally off.

 

[psycholist]

Don't forget that Floyd had a mechanical issue early in that TT that may
have cost him several seconds.

Did you see Landis in that interview with Frankie Andreau after today's
stage. I don't think the motivation of the yellow jersey will be enough to
overcome the fire in Floyd Landis. It's gonna be incredibly close between
Landis and Sastre ... and Floyd wins by enough.

--
Bob C.

"Of course it hurts. The trick is not minding that it hurts."
T. E. Lawrence (of Arabia)
<[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> >From the first long tt:
> Floyd
> Sastre @1:10 behind floyd
> Pereiro @1:40 behind floyd
>
> Current gc:
> Pereiro
> Sastre @0:12
> Floyd @0:30
> Stage 19 is 56km, lumpy, kinda twisty. Similar to the first long tt.
> No major climbs.
>
> We have seen gc contenders make noticable improvements in their tts on
> late tts in the tdf. I would expect Sastre & Pereiro to do the same
> now that its much more important to them. Plus Pereiro will have the
> yellow on an extra incentive and get to go last.
>
> Will Cunego hold off Fothen in the young rider competition? Only a 5
> second lead at this point
> stage 7 results:
> Fothen @1:44
> Cunego @ 6:23.
> Looks like Cunego will have to try this time.
>
> Will T-mobile hold off that other american team, CSC in the team
> competition? Only an 8 minute lead now.
>
> So, how many times will Floyd stop to change bikes in the last TT?
>

 

[[email protected]]

psycholist wrote:
> Don't forget that Floyd had a mechanical issue early in that TT that may
> have cost him several seconds.
>
> Did you see Landis in that interview with Frankie Andreau after today's
> stage. I don't think the motivation of the yellow jersey will be enough to
> overcome the fire in Floyd Landis. It's gonna be incredibly close between
> Landis and Sastre ... and Floyd wins by enough.
>

Funny, but so many people have critized Landis for not being aggressive
enough, or wanting it badly enough, or whatever. I guess after 7 years
of watching Armstrong, or other top athletes in other sports, we expect
that all aggression and motivation has to be "in your face". We forget
that it's the quiet guy, the guy who doesn't brag but just goes out and
gets the job done, that you have to watch out for.

Fred

 

[Nev Shea]

"[email protected]" <[email protected]> wrote in
news:[email protected]:

> We have seen gc contenders make noticable improvements in their tts on
> late tts in the tdf. I would expect Sastre & Pereiro to do the same
> now that its much more important to them.

I wouldn't. Sastre was CSC's GC guy from the start so his motivation is the
same; Pereiro wasn't loafing either -- he finished 23rd in stage 7.

NS

 

[[email protected]]

Bucky wrote:
> All I know is whatever predictions are made will be totally off.

Quite likely.

My predictions:

A podium position will be lost due to a minor mechanical (e.g. a flat)
during the TT.

Bobby J will not crash. (sure about this one)

 

[John Forrest Tomlinson]

On 20 Jul 2006 10:19:50 -0700, "Bucky" <[email protected]> wrote:

>All I know is whatever predictions are made will be totally off.

Yeah. Floyd and these other guys' form is way to stochastic* to
predict.

JT

*I learned that word here on RBR! Still not sure if I'm using it
correctly.

****************************
Remove "remove" to reply
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[MyPostingID]

John Forrest Tomlinson wrote:
> On 20 Jul 2006 10:19:50 -0700, "Bucky" <[email protected]> wrote:
>
> >All I know is whatever predictions are made will be totally off.
>
> Yeah. Floyd and these other guys' form is way to stochastic* to
> predict.
>
> JT
>
> *I learned that word here on RBR! Still not sure if I'm using it
> correctly.
>
> ****************************
> Remove "remove" to reply
> Visit http://www.jt10000.com
> ****************************
I took a course in probability and statistics in college, and the ONLY
thing I learned in it, since I flunked out completely, was a stochastic
distribution is completely random, no pattern. So, yeah, I think you
are using it correctly.

 

[Richard Adams]

[email protected] wrote:
> >From the first long tt:
> Floyd
> Sastre @1:10 behind floyd
> Pereiro @1:40 behind floyd
>
> Current gc:
> Pereiro
> Sastre @0:12
> Floyd @0:30
> Stage 19 is 56km, lumpy, kinda twisty. Similar to the first long tt.
> No major climbs.
>

Landis to finish in the top 3 of the ITT, enough of a margin to take
the overall lead.

The question is, what will teams be doing on Stage 18? There's a
sprint at the bottom of the descent. Will Landis attack on the
descent, strong descender that he is, to grab a few more seconds?
There's a Cat. 2 climb with 60 Km to go, which I expect someone to do
an attack as the top three are close together - it's a perfect setting.

 

[trg]

"Richard Adams" <[email protected]> a écrit dans le message de news:
[email protected]...
|
| [email protected] wrote:
| > >From the first long tt:
| > Floyd
| > Sastre @1:10 behind floyd
| > Pereiro @1:40 behind floyd
| >
| > Current gc:
| > Pereiro
| > Sastre @0:12
| > Floyd @0:30
| > Stage 19 is 56km, lumpy, kinda twisty. Similar to the first long tt.
| > No major climbs.
| >
|
| Landis to finish in the top 3 of the ITT, enough of a margin to take
| the overall lead.
|
| The question is, what will teams be doing on Stage 18? There's a
| sprint at the bottom of the descent. Will Landis attack on the
| descent, strong descender that he is, to grab a few more seconds?
| There's a Cat. 2 climb with 60 Km to go, which I expect someone to do
| an attack as the top three are close together - it's a perfect setting.
|

I don't think so. Assuming there's no break that takes the points, he'd have
to use up quite a bit of energy to take six seconds, when he needs to
recover for tomorrow, where six seconds probably won't make the difference.

The second hill is 60km to go, and the road is flat up to it, and on the
other side of it as well. The peloton with the favorites will get there
together, and even if a favorite gets a lead on the other side, he can't
hope to hold it all the way to the finish.

 

[sonarrat]

[email protected] wrote:
>>From the first long tt:
> Floyd
> Sastre @1:10 behind floyd
> Pereiro @1:40 behind floyd
>
> Current gc:
> Pereiro
> Sastre @0:12
> Floyd @0:30
> Stage 19 is 56km, lumpy, kinda twisty. Similar to the first long tt.
> No major climbs.
>
> We have seen gc contenders make noticable improvements in their tts on
> late tts in the tdf. I would expect Sastre & Pereiro to do the same
> now that its much more important to them. Plus Pereiro will have the
> yellow on an extra incentive and get to go last.
>
> Will Cunego hold off Fothen in the young rider competition? Only a 5
> second lead at this point
> stage 7 results:
> Fothen @1:44
> Cunego @ 6:23.
> Looks like Cunego will have to try this time.
>
> Will T-mobile hold off that other american team, CSC in the team
> competition? Only an 8 minute lead now.
>
> So, how many times will Floyd stop to change bikes in the last TT?

The last ITT in a GT is always different from the first one. You see a
lot fewer specialists and a lot more GC contenders at the sharp end,
just because they're better attuned for a three-week race and have
superior recovery. This IS a pretty damn long test, though.