Stage 5: Piacenza - Cremona, TTT 38 km
- Thread starter bobke
- Start date
No limitations in the Giro of this nature hence the short distance they are riding...jonjungel said:
Yeah Liberty could be very strong, not only the well known faces... young Dutchman Koen De Kort is new in the team (22 years old) and did some great ITT's last year when he was riding for Rabobank continental (U23)...limerickman said:
"But for Zabreeskee" is actually a bit misleading.limerickman said:
But for Zabreeskee, since he was the best TTist in the entire race, they would not have been best at every time check since he was taking huge pulls, but for Zabreeskee they would not have been defending the yellow jersey which always brings out even more in a team's effort.
So yeah but for DaveZ is a mixed picture.
I mean, sure, they were going for as much time as possible in the TTT for Basso's sake but I'm sure the yellow jersey didnt hurt.
So its hard to tell how much Dave's crash mattered beyond a couple of seconds, but even Lance thought CSC was gonna win.
Scott Sunderland said on cyclingnews that a weaker team could readily lose 2 minutes to teams like CSC/DC.
While the TTT is pancake flat and may be accompanied by a tail wind, some of the weaker teams will start losing cyclists and that will impair their speed as much as their not having as much practice in the discipline and their not having as good ITTists as CSC/DC.
I think DC will win, but will not get more than 30" over CSC. I think DiLuca and Gibo will lose more than 1' to the team, between DC and CSC, that wins.
I think Selle Italia could end up losing more than 2' to the team, between DC and CSC, that wins. They go first, and do not have a sense as to where other teams are coming in. They also have weak ITTists, and, since Rujano was absent from Europe (and from Selle Italia activities) until recently, they cannot have practiced that much with Rujano included.
In the Tour 05 TTT (67.5 km, not as flat as the Giro TTT, which is 38 km):
1 Discovery Channel Team 1.10.39 (57.324 km/h)
2 Team CSC 0.02
3 T-Mobile Team 0.35
4 Liberty Seguros - Würth Team 0.53
5 Phonak Hearing Systems 1.31
6 Credit Agricole 1.41
7 Gerolsteiner 2.05
8 Illes Balears-Caisse D'Epargne
9 Fassa Bortolo 2.19
10 Liquigas - Bianchi 2.26
11 Davitamon - Lotto 2.32
12 Rabobank 2.48
13 Domina Vacanze 3.04
14 Quick Step - Innergetic 3.05
15 Bouygues Telecom 3.08
16 Euskaltel - Euskadi 3.59
17 Lampre - Caffita 4.09
18 Cofidis Credit Par Telephone 4.28
19 Francaise Des Jeux 4.46
20 Saunier Duval - Prodir 5.06
21 Ag2R Prevoyance 5.23
While the TTT is pancake flat and may be accompanied by a tail wind, some of the weaker teams will start losing cyclists and that will impair their speed as much as their not having as much practice in the discipline and their not having as good ITTists as CSC/DC.
I think DC will win, but will not get more than 30" over CSC. I think DiLuca and Gibo will lose more than 1' to the team, between DC and CSC, that wins.
I think Selle Italia could end up losing more than 2' to the team, between DC and CSC, that wins. They go first, and do not have a sense as to where other teams are coming in. They also have weak ITTists, and, since Rujano was absent from Europe (and from Selle Italia activities) until recently, they cannot have practiced that much with Rujano included.
In the Tour 05 TTT (67.5 km, not as flat as the Giro TTT, which is 38 km):
1 Discovery Channel Team 1.10.39 (57.324 km/h)
2 Team CSC 0.02
3 T-Mobile Team 0.35
4 Liberty Seguros - Würth Team 0.53
5 Phonak Hearing Systems 1.31
6 Credit Agricole 1.41
7 Gerolsteiner 2.05
8 Illes Balears-Caisse D'Epargne
9 Fassa Bortolo 2.19
10 Liquigas - Bianchi 2.26
11 Davitamon - Lotto 2.32
12 Rabobank 2.48
13 Domina Vacanze 3.04
14 Quick Step - Innergetic 3.05
15 Bouygues Telecom 3.08
16 Euskaltel - Euskadi 3.59
17 Lampre - Caffita 4.09
18 Cofidis Credit Par Telephone 4.28
19 Francaise Des Jeux 4.46
20 Saunier Duval - Prodir 5.06
21 Ag2R Prevoyance 5.23
L'Equipe interviewed A Gallopin, CSC DS. A very rough translation follows:
"Gallopin discusses whether the TTT, not in the Giro since 1989, affected CSC's choice of its Giro team. 'If Voigt is on the team, that's not because of the TTT, but because he is riding strongly. That's the case of Julich as well. Moreover, he has recovered since the Stage 1 ITT in which [he didn't do too well] -- no doubt because of pollen.' Gallopin says: 'It is always good to know other teams' times [by starting later than competitors]. But the distance of 38 km is relatively short, and that [start sequence] will come into play less.' Gallopin recognizes that the high stress in the TTT context and CSC's start time being before Savoldelli's would nonetheless be [somewhat of] a handicap."
Eurosport reports LA as saying this:
LA "was in a positive frame of mind concerning his former team's odds for the team time trial. 'The guys have a good chance to win it.' said Armstrong."
"Gallopin discusses whether the TTT, not in the Giro since 1989, affected CSC's choice of its Giro team. 'If Voigt is on the team, that's not because of the TTT, but because he is riding strongly. That's the case of Julich as well. Moreover, he has recovered since the Stage 1 ITT in which [he didn't do too well] -- no doubt because of pollen.' Gallopin says: 'It is always good to know other teams' times [by starting later than competitors]. But the distance of 38 km is relatively short, and that [start sequence] will come into play less.' Gallopin recognizes that the high stress in the TTT context and CSC's start time being before Savoldelli's would nonetheless be [somewhat of] a handicap."
Eurosport reports LA as saying this:
LA "was in a positive frame of mind concerning his former team's odds for the team time trial. 'The guys have a good chance to win it.' said Armstrong."
Riis says he doesn't care how much he wins by, but he wants to win the Giro TTT. The article reports Riis as wanting to "avenge" his TTT Tour 05 defeat. He thinks the top six teams in the TTT will finish within 30 seconds of one another. I'm not so sure.
http://sports.yahoo.com/sc/news;_yl...ug=reu-giroarmstrongdc&prov=reuters&type=lgns
http://sports.yahoo.com/sc/news;_yl...ug=reu-giroarmstrongdc&prov=reuters&type=lgns
The course is pancake flat.musette said:
There is a tailwind. (Headwind would favor bigger stronger teams)
It is a very short TTT.
These factors all play into smaller differences.
9 riders over 38 km, means each rider pulls for 4.2 km as opposed to like twice that distance in the TdF.
They will finish in around 30 minutes and that kind of effort is very different than over an hour effort.
The hour-long TT (ind. or team) efforts are very specialized to a specific developed physiology. Non-TT specialists can pull off the shorter effort better in a 38 km distance, compared to the long TTT. 30 minutes vs an hour.
Do the math. In a long TTT of 60 km, each rider, going along at 50-60 km/hr is gonna pull on the front for 1 minute 10 times, and recover for the in-between pulls for eight minutes with the recovery lessening as you apporach the front of the line. So one minute well over anaerobic threshold with recovery probably at threshold in the paceline.
In a short TTT, each rider will pull four times for one minute with recovery inbetween. The teams can afford for less endurance riders to go ALL OUT for two or three pulls and then drop off midway if the other riders can go the distance. Losing a rider is a much bigger deal in the longer efforts because they both extend the time and the quality of recovery due to wind blockage and drafting.
Anyway, I'll go with Riis. But anotherminimum twenty seconds Salvodelli gets over Simoni and Cunego is gold. I think Disco wil get over 30 on both Simoni and Cunego.
But Bobby J wants pink, but I think the number dont look that way
bobke said:
It's not the smaller time gaps that will prevent Bobby J from getting pink. It's his GC placement relative to his teammates, esp Voigt and Basso.
Bobby J won't get pink even if CSC wins. Voigt will get pink if CSC wins by a sufficient margin, because he will probably finish with the first five CSC riders. Moreover, Voigt, Basso and Sorensen are all ahead of Bobby J on GC, and the CSC team won't finish the TTT without Basso. Bottom line -- Bobby J won't get pink tomorrow.
exactlymusette said:It's not the smaller time gaps that will prevent Bobby J from getting pink. It's his GC placement relative to his teammates, esp Voigt and Basso.
Bobby J won't get pink even if CSC wins. Voigt will get pink if CSC wins by a sufficient margin, because he will probably finish with the first five CSC riders. Moreover, Voigt, Basso and Sorensen are all ahead of Bobby J on GC, and the CSC team won't finish the TTT without Basso. Bottom line -- Bobby J won't get pink tomorrow.
But neither will S Honchar, in my mind. M Rogers dreams on the TM website:
"If all goes well tomorrow, we have a chance of putting Serhiy Honchar into the maglia rosa. It's a big ask, but it is our goal. However, the competition is really stiff; Discovery, Gerolsteiner and CSC all have well-drilled time trial squads."
That's a huge ask, which will not be fulfilled! Honchar is 18 seconds behind Il Falco in GC now.
"If all goes well tomorrow, we have a chance of putting Serhiy Honchar into the maglia rosa. It's a big ask, but it is our goal. However, the competition is really stiff; Discovery, Gerolsteiner and CSC all have well-drilled time trial squads."
That's a huge ask, which will not be fulfilled!
Honchar is 18 seconds behind Il Falco in GC now.
I think the time gaps will be small for reasons mentioned by bobke (relatively short TTT, tailwind, flat course).
I think DSC, CSC, & TMO will all finish within a 15 seconds of each other.
My pick is DSC which is bad news for them as I always tip incorrectly.
I also don't think Selle Italia care about the TTT or the overall but will go only for stage victories later.
I think DSC, CSC, & TMO will all finish within a 15 seconds of each other.
My pick is DSC which is bad news for them as I always tip incorrectly.
I also don't think Selle Italia care about the TTT or the overall but will go only for stage victories later.
Csc was not going to win by 10 seconds..... DC was only 2 seconds off the pace at the last checkpoint and was knocking seconds off each checkpoint. DC had the faster time in the last half of the race by a good margin. If CSC could have recomposed themselves after the last checkpoint and not crashed, they would have won barely by a few seconds. But they didn't. They crashed. They were in disarray with the bald guy as a DS.limerickman said:
wolfix said:
CSC were ahead at every checkpoint at the 2004 TTT at the TDF : even if DC were going faster in the second half of the TTT course, DC were still not the fastest at team at each checkpoint throughout the course which renders the point immaterial.
The Zabriskie crash cost CSC that TTT.
That is beyond dispute.
And if CSC were in disarray - it was because the rider crashed.
That's not the fault of the bald guy - as you put it.
As an aside.
I had assumed that you were not part of this xenophobic trunck populated by the likes of Bobke, leBleutrain and mussette.
I'm now beginning to wonder.
Your calling him Xenophobic because he likes Discoverylimerickman said:
. Or maybe because of the bald guy comment? Last time I checked that wasn't Xenophobia. Wolfix is no were near like musette and bobke. He likes DC as a team, thats cool because he's not obsessed by it. He puts up arguements supporting them to counter yours and WBT endless tirade of "we hate DC" no matter what they do. I can understand this is a reaction against musette and bobke and their unending DC obsession but your becoming just as bad, just on the opposite side of the spectrum.Back on thread:
It will be interesting to see how Lampre/Saunier do compared to each other. See who wins in the Simoni/Cunego rivalry. And also where Liguigas place. But I reckon all the main contenders teams will place in the top ten, probably making up the top seven with TM and LSW, except for Rujano and the Sella Italia boys who could be way down.
Eldrack said:Your calling him Xenophobic because he likes Discovery
neither.
Just a couple of recent comments in a number of threads, makes me wonder.
Eldrack said:
Agreed. Wolf usually posts some pretty insightful stuff unlike the other two.
that's why I was suprised at his CSC comments.
Eldrack said:
Nothing wrong with anyone supporting DC :
Eldrack said:
Nothing against American riders - I'm on record as stating that LeMond/Hampsten are among my favourite riders.
Cards on the table, I have no time for Armstrong or his lies.
Lim: Not wanting to open the entire debate again and I don't ride (now) but out of interest is it coincided within cycling circles that Armstrong was a PED user ?limerickman said:
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