Stage 8: Civitanova Marche - Maielletta Passo Lanciano, 171 km

[bobke]

But there's a huge difference between Danielson pacing Savoldelli to a loss of only 2' 21" and the work that Sastre was doing - which was to set a pace that was so hard that it thinnned the group from the start - including getting rid of Danielson, who was clearly suffering. He was not seen getting back on to the group as Rujano managed to do and was only seen very much later pacing Savoldelli - unsurprising as by that point he'd had about 11 kms in which to recover and Savoldelli waited rather than being caught by Danielson.

Why would Danielson choose to drop off the pace voluntarily to act as a back up for Savoldelli? That simply doesn't make any sense. Did Yates think Savoldelli was going to fail? You'd hope not. Then why hang your team leader out to dry in the Basso group and let him struggle on for another 6kms alone in that group? That doesn't make any sense either.

Discovery are obviously employing the most bizarre tactics in this race - deliberately throwing the TTT, deliberately abandoning your team leader in the first big selection on the first big climb? If the point is to make Basso quake in his boots and undermine his confidence before the tough climbs of the third week - well, it's quite clearly not working is it?

I agree, these are not tactics--they are a team getting blown apart by superior riders. Period. I mean Salvo could have had a bad day but even HE knew he was gonna lose a minute and he said as much--on a GOOD day...

I mean look, riders can have good days or "giornata non" but these guys do power tests and hillclimb tests coming into races...they already knew what Paolo could and couldnt do. They also know Lance's numbers over the past years and basically therefore they know Basso's power to weight ratio and climbing watts since those two were head to head the last tw years.

They and paolo KNEW he wasnt up to it BEFORE the race thats why Armstrong and Bruyneel were coming out in the last 2 weeks with the Giro course not for him TdF course would be better but he is Italian blah blah blah. WHat else are they gomma do?

Yes Danielson got blown out the back. That strategy is used only when you are blowing sky high and you are told to maintain as high a pace you can (think Levi Leipheimer who has used this well to be even but not stellar over the past big days in the TdF) in case the likely scenario is that your team leader is gonna go all out and HE is gonna blow up--whcih is what Salvo said happened--think Ullrich getting paced by Sevilla or Kloden on bad days. Damage control tactics only. Limiting losses only.

The pace was very high the first two hours like 50 km and the next hour was 46-47 so climbers like Danielson who are not ery energy efficient at folowing wheels etc may have been shredded.

Sastre is an animal and after lifting the pace that high gets to save as much as he can the last 4 km whatever.

Can anyone touch Basso?

 

[musette]

I am not saying Basso will for sure have a bad day on an important day, but it's always possible. See last year. DC has to continue and do the best they can under the circumstances. If Basso doesn't have a bad day on an important day, so be it.

Il Falco said today: "I'm looking forward to the time trial Thursday, to take time from the climbers if possible. Today [Stage 9], I was just quiet. Yesterday on the climb to Maielletta, I had some trouble breathing that my team doctor thinks may be due to allergies. So I hope to improve as we go along. What happened is not due to my [athletic] condition."

I hope he will improve

 

[Rob81]

This stage was short, flat and only with a final climb.

Last week (especially Wed and Sat... i'll be there, probably on Gavia..less crowded and i can storm back to Aprica to see arrive ) could be really different so dont count anyone out yet!

 

[micron]

This stage was short, flat and only with a final climb.

Last week (especially Wed and Sat... i'll be there, probably on Gavia..less crowded and i can storm back to Aprica to see arrive ) could be really different so dont count anyone out yet!

have a great time - one year I'll get to Italy during the Giro - and the Gavia is definitely a place I'd choose to be

 

[limerickman]

Having watched Stage 8 again - Basso looks really really strong.
Cunego put up a valiant effort but Basso was quite clearly stronger.

It is too early to say that this stage was definitive in the context of the overall result but I think that if Basso can remain strong the Giro is his.

Simoni, DiLuca, Rujano made no impact on stage 8.
Maybe they're keeping their powder dry but losing time to Basso won't ease the pressure.

As for Danielson - he wasn't mixing it with anyone.

 

[micron]

If last year is anything to go by, Savoldelli won't take any time out of Basso on stage 11 - Basso beat him in every single ITT they raced against each other in the Giro and Tour - except for the comedy Giro prologue.

 

[NeilMac]

But there's a huge difference between Danielson pacing Savoldelli to a loss of only 2' 21" and the work that Sastre was doing - which was to set a pace that was so hard that it thinnned the group from the start - including getting rid of Danielson, who was clearly suffering. He was not seen getting back on to the group as Rujano managed to do and was only seen very much later pacing Savoldelli - unsurprising as by that point he'd had about 11 kms in which to recover and Savoldelli waited rather than being caught by Danielson.

Why would Danielson choose to drop off the pace voluntarily to act as a back up for Savoldelli? That simply doesn't make any sense. Did Yates think Savoldelli was going to fail? You'd hope not. Then why hang your team leader out to dry in the Basso group and let him struggle on for another 6kms alone in that group? That doesn't make any sense either.

Discovery are obviously employing the most bizarre tactics in this race - deliberately throwing the TTT, deliberately abandoning your team leader in the first big selection on the first big climb? If the point is to make Basso quake in his boots and undermine his confidence before the tough climbs of the third week - well, it's quite clearly not working is it?

That is the most sensible post I have read on this subject - bravo Micron!

 

[whiteboytrash]

Il Falco said today: "I'm looking forward to the time trial Thursday, to take time from the climbers if possible. Today [Stage 9], I was just quiet. Yesterday on the climb to Maielletta, I had some trouble breathing that my team doctor thinks may be due to allergies. So I hope to improve as we go along. What happened is not due to my [athletic] condition."

I hope he will improve

To be honest there was part in the stage when it looks like its snowing but its the pollen blowing from the tree's..... however PS should know how to manage this... ie how Beloki with asthma, Ullrich with his knee and Basso with his back.... Sean Yates was interviewed on EuroSport today and he was claiming that there were several riders impacted by the pollen (Big names like Henk Vogals ) but to be honest if you are a GC favorite you ensure that these things are taken care of... you really do.

 

[saluki]

To be honest there was part in the stage when it looks like its snowing but its the pollen blowing from the tree's..... however PS should know how to manage this... ie how Beloki with asthma, Ullrich with his knee and Basso with his back.... Sean Yates was interviewed on EuroSport today and he was claiming that there were several riders impacted by the pollen (Big names like Henk Vogals ) but to be honest if you are a GC favorite you ensure that these things are taken care of... you really do.

I don't know if pollen had any impact. But you simply can't take drugs for allergies these days. It's too risky.

 

[barnstorm]

In an interview before the start of the Giro Savoldelli explained that he was not a pure climber and that this was a Giro for pure climbers. I tend to agree with him. Look at Savoldelli climbing. He seems to be trying to wressel the bike up the mountain. Basso's form and cadence looks the same if he is on the flat or if he is climbing. In other words, I don't think there is any chance of a comeback for Savoldelli. In fact, things will probably get worse. Danielson could probably do better than Savoldelli in the mountains if the team turns him loose. But he still wouldn't be a treat to Basso.

Watching Basso in the last two TDF's it looks like his best climbs are his early climbs. In fact, I remember Floyd Landis riding Basso off his wheel in the final climb of the 2004 TDF. So it may be a little early to rule Cunego out of the race. Problem is that Cunego will have to overcome both his current gap plus whatever he will loose in the upcoming ITT. The odds are with Basso.

First, do not underestimate Salvodelli's abilities in the mountains. Watch last year's Giro. He did lose time yesterday and clearly had a bad day which he admitted. His team was absent to the point of pathetic given the roster they have. At least Danielson found him and did his job for a bit so maybe that discussion can finally go to bed. Danielson clearly can't contend and clearly is working for Salvodelli... maybe not that well, but he is working for him nonetheless.

Second, you talk about Basso doing better on early tour climbs. He did exactly the same in this regard in 2004 and 2005.... very strong in the Pyrennees and pretty strong in the Alps. Basso spoke about this too. He does much better in the steeper pyrennees than the grinding alps. Pyrennees first in 2004, he was with Lance on both, Alps first in 2005, he struggled and lost time, then did much better in pyrennees. Nothing to do with first/second, all about the different mountains.

So, what does this stage mean? Well, it is largely Basso's to lose. He will take more time from the climbers in the TT. Salvodelli, unless he has a really bad day, will TT about like Basso and take time out of the climbers too. It is definitely Basso's to lose. If he stays like this, he wins. But if he has a bad day, then what happens? Salvodelli is the next in line still if he gets his act back together... he could still win if Basso drops off. Salvodelli cannot knock Basso out of this position but could be there to pick up the pieces if Basso fails. The climbers, Simoni, and Cunego, are capable of big attacks on the nasty steep passes that could hurt Basso even if he is on an OK day. Nobody would call that likely right now, but it is possible. They could win with a big attack, Salvodelli needs Basso to fail to have a real chance.

I just hope Ullrich comes up huge on thursday. That would be very cool.

 

[Dimos]

Savoldelli told after the race clearly that he went "fuori giri", that he went out of his rpm. And that beacuse the pace that Sastre put on. The fact that Sastre later on lost control at all has to do with recuperation and saving of energy. We're in the beginning of the second week still, we've got a long road to go.

 

[saluki]

Why would Danielson choose to drop off the pace voluntarily to act as a back up for Savoldelli? That simply doesn't make any sense. Did Yates think Savoldelli was going to fail? You'd hope not. Then why hang your team leader out to dry in the Basso group and let him struggle on for another 6kms alone in that group? That doesn't make any sense either.

Discovery are obviously employing the most bizarre tactics in this race - deliberately throwing the TTT

Sorry micron, you are not going to convince me that Danielson couldn't hang on to that group - even if it was for only the first third of the climb. I think that he picked a pace that he felt he could maintain all the way to the top and let the lead group go. There was certainly no need for him to try to do what Sastre did, because we all know that Savoldelli is not going to outclimb everybody. It looks like they just hoped that Savoldelli could hang in the group or with some people in the group on the way up. Anyone's wheel is as good as anyone else's (Ask Robbie) as long as you are not being attacked by the guy in front of you.

That said, it appears that Danielson is woefully underagressive. I have seen that in him before. And that may also be why he decided to let the front group go without even making an effort.

I agree that Savoldelli will not be able to take time out of Basso in the ITT, but he may well be able to take time out of the other climbers. Even if he does, he will loose it again in the later climbs.

Having failed to sign Basso, Bruneel needs to sign on of the following.

Alberto Contador
Cadel Evans
Denis Menchov

 

[musette]

I think Bruyneel will find Cadel too old for his grooming process. And Cantador's personal working ties with Saiz, and Saiz's support during Cantador's heart/health problems, will make Cantador difficult to dislodge. Bruyneel will also see Cantador as not being sufficiently strong a ITT, unless he improves. I don't see Dennis M as being an improvement over Popo.

Since DC only needs one leader in the long-run at the Tour, unless that cyclist is clearly better than Popo and is a young cyclist (e.g., Valverde, although his ITT leaves a lot to be desired), I think Bruyneel will stick with trying to develop Popo.

 

[saluki]

Salvodelli needs Basso to fail to have a real chance.

I can't agree with you barnstorm. Even if Basso fails, someone else will take the Giro. I think that Savoldelli will have a rough time making the top 3 this year.

 

[saluki]

I think Bruyneel will find Cadel too old for his grooming process. And Cantador's personal working ties with Saiz, and Saiz's support during Cantador's heart/health problems, will make Cantador difficult to dislodge. Bruyneel will also see Cantador as not being sufficiently strong a ITT, unless he improves. I don't see Dennis M as being an improvement over Popo.

Since DC only needs one leader in the long-run at the Tour, unless that cyclist is clearly better than Popo and is a young cyclist (e.g., Valverde, although his ITT leaves a lot to be desired), I think Bruyneel will stick with trying to develop Popo.

You have some points Musette, but I have yet to see any sign of great potential from Popovich. Concerning Valverde, Contador beat him in both the major climb and in the TT in the Tour of Romandie. I would also agree that Contador's loyalty might be tough to break, but if it comes to having to support Vinakurov instead of racing for himself, what will Contador do? Will he be willing to wait.

And concerning Menchov, I have never seen Popovich climb or TT as well as Menchov did in last years Vuleta.

 

[patch70]

I don't know if pollen had any impact. But you simply can't take drugs for allergies these days. It's too risky.

Actually that is one way that they can take drugs!
Get a doctor's certificate for a real or pretend allergy and then you can take corticosteroids and don't have to worry about testing positive for them eg. Lance in 1999 - although his medical certificate was post-dated. Gaumont talked a lot about this: pretending to have a rash by scratching your nuts and then getting an exemption for corticosteroids.

 

[mitosis]

I am not saying Basso will for sure have a bad day on an important day, but it's always possible. See last year. DC has to continue and do the best they can under the circumstances. If Basso doesn't have a bad day on an important day, so be it.

Il Falco said today: "I'm looking forward to the time trial Thursday, to take time from the climbers if possible. Today [Stage 9], I was just quiet. Yesterday on the climb to Maielletta, I had some trouble breathing that my team doctor thinks may be due to allergies. So I hope to improve as we go along. What happened is not due to my [athletic] condition."

I hope he will improve

So there's only two teams in it in your expert analysis (good to see you've recovered from your writer's block you suffered during the TTT)?

DC and whoever they are chasing.

I think you will find that the other teams would like to think they have a chance. That is what is making the Giro a contest again this year.