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February 4, 2003, 10:00 a.m. Stop! Don’t ditch your SUV just yet.
By Jerry Taylor
Another salvo in the war over sport-utility vehicles was fired recently when Jeffrey Runge, a doctor
who happens to head the Bush administration's National Highway Traffic Safety Administration,
declared that SUVs pose an "astounding" threat to their owners because of their proclivity to roll
over and that strict new regulations may be in the offing.
"The thing that I don't understand is people, when they choose to buy a vehicle, they might go sit
in it and say, 'Gee, I feel safe,' " said Runge. "Well, sorry, but you know gut instinct is great
for a lot of stuff, but it's not very good for buying a safe automobile."
Doctors may be great at a lot of stuff, but they're not necessarily very good at assessing
non-medical data. The public, in fact, is right and Dr. Runge is wrong.
It is true that SUVs are more dangerous to be in than most passenger vehicles if they roll over. But
only three percent of all accidents involve rollovers. If you're driving an SUV and get into an
accident, most of the time it will involve hitting (or getting hit by) something. Accordingly,
drivers are right not to worry too much about rolling over, particularly because it can be avoided
simply by avoiding NASCAR racing practices when making sharp turns.
The fact that increased safety of SUVs in two-car collisions more than offsets the risk of rollovers
was validated last October in a study published by the National Bureau of Economic Research and
written by University of Michigan economist Michelle White. White got data regarding every
automotive accident reported to the police between 1995-99.
She studied the records of cars, SUVS, pickups and minivans, large trucks and buses in three types
of crashes: those involving two vehicles, a single vehicle and a vehicle striking a pedestrian or
bicyclist. She then analyzed the information, controlling for seat belt use, urban and rural
conditions, weather, time of day, negligence, age of the drivers, road type, speed, and number of
vehicular occupants.
The result: SUVs saved between 1,023 and 1,225 lives every year. And the study found no
statistically significant evidence that you are more likely to die if your car collided with an SUV
than if it collided with another car. Interestingly enough, White found that light trucks were
responsible for an unnecessary 2,260 deaths every year. Apparently, it's the pickups and minivans -
not the SUVs - that are the problem.
What makes this study remarkable is that it's the first time that actual case-by-case crash data
were used to examine SUV safety. Earlier studies used aggregated data that prevented analysts from
controlling for all the relevant factors that might contaminate the findings. Any statistician will
tell you that the case-by-case data are much preferred for this very reason. And White is the first
analyst to put the relevant data through the paces.
A skeptic might counter that the National Research Council of the National Academy of Sciences
concluded last July that SUVs were responsible for an unnecessary 2,000 deaths a year. Doesn't the
consensus of those experts trump the findings of the economist?
The problem is that the NRC study was based on a review of the published literature and did not
include the White study, which was published three months later. The NRC simply assessed the
findings of various studies that used the less persuasive data approach.
In addition, the White study was not financed by the auto industry. It was the Institute of Civil
Justice at the RAND Corp. that supported White's study.
The anti-SUV jihad may continue to roll on, but it cannot credibly do so with an anti-safety
argument in tow. Dr. Runge should check the facts before he jumps on this rickety bandwagon.
-- Jerry Taylor is director of natural-resource studies at the Cato Institute.
Ken (NY) Chairman, Department Of Redundancy Department
____________________________________
A reminder: Why we are fighting: http://www.geocities.com/bluesguy68/AmericaAttacked.htm
email: http://www.geocities.com/bluesguy68/email.htm
There are three kinds of men. The ones that learn by reading. The few who learn by observation. The
rest of them have to pee on the electric fence. -Will Rogers
By Jerry Taylor
Another salvo in the war over sport-utility vehicles was fired recently when Jeffrey Runge, a doctor
who happens to head the Bush administration's National Highway Traffic Safety Administration,
declared that SUVs pose an "astounding" threat to their owners because of their proclivity to roll
over and that strict new regulations may be in the offing.
"The thing that I don't understand is people, when they choose to buy a vehicle, they might go sit
in it and say, 'Gee, I feel safe,' " said Runge. "Well, sorry, but you know gut instinct is great
for a lot of stuff, but it's not very good for buying a safe automobile."
Doctors may be great at a lot of stuff, but they're not necessarily very good at assessing
non-medical data. The public, in fact, is right and Dr. Runge is wrong.
It is true that SUVs are more dangerous to be in than most passenger vehicles if they roll over. But
only three percent of all accidents involve rollovers. If you're driving an SUV and get into an
accident, most of the time it will involve hitting (or getting hit by) something. Accordingly,
drivers are right not to worry too much about rolling over, particularly because it can be avoided
simply by avoiding NASCAR racing practices when making sharp turns.
The fact that increased safety of SUVs in two-car collisions more than offsets the risk of rollovers
was validated last October in a study published by the National Bureau of Economic Research and
written by University of Michigan economist Michelle White. White got data regarding every
automotive accident reported to the police between 1995-99.
She studied the records of cars, SUVS, pickups and minivans, large trucks and buses in three types
of crashes: those involving two vehicles, a single vehicle and a vehicle striking a pedestrian or
bicyclist. She then analyzed the information, controlling for seat belt use, urban and rural
conditions, weather, time of day, negligence, age of the drivers, road type, speed, and number of
vehicular occupants.
The result: SUVs saved between 1,023 and 1,225 lives every year. And the study found no
statistically significant evidence that you are more likely to die if your car collided with an SUV
than if it collided with another car. Interestingly enough, White found that light trucks were
responsible for an unnecessary 2,260 deaths every year. Apparently, it's the pickups and minivans -
not the SUVs - that are the problem.
What makes this study remarkable is that it's the first time that actual case-by-case crash data
were used to examine SUV safety. Earlier studies used aggregated data that prevented analysts from
controlling for all the relevant factors that might contaminate the findings. Any statistician will
tell you that the case-by-case data are much preferred for this very reason. And White is the first
analyst to put the relevant data through the paces.
A skeptic might counter that the National Research Council of the National Academy of Sciences
concluded last July that SUVs were responsible for an unnecessary 2,000 deaths a year. Doesn't the
consensus of those experts trump the findings of the economist?
The problem is that the NRC study was based on a review of the published literature and did not
include the White study, which was published three months later. The NRC simply assessed the
findings of various studies that used the less persuasive data approach.
In addition, the White study was not financed by the auto industry. It was the Institute of Civil
Justice at the RAND Corp. that supported White's study.
The anti-SUV jihad may continue to roll on, but it cannot credibly do so with an anti-safety
argument in tow. Dr. Runge should check the facts before he jumps on this rickety bandwagon.
-- Jerry Taylor is director of natural-resource studies at the Cato Institute.
Ken (NY) Chairman, Department Of Redundancy Department
____________________________________
A reminder: Why we are fighting: http://www.geocities.com/bluesguy68/AmericaAttacked.htm
email: http://www.geocities.com/bluesguy68/email.htm
There are three kinds of men. The ones that learn by reading. The few who learn by observation. The
rest of them have to pee on the electric fence. -Will Rogers