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Discussion in 'Recumbent bicycles' started by John Riley, Mar 31, 2003.

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  1. John Riley

    John Riley Guest

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  2. this is a No-BRAINer, the Mtb has run its design course and in the past 2 years Mtb sales have
    bottomed out in North America. Consumers have realized they can get a Mtb from Wal-Mart that is as
    good or sometimes better than the hi-priced C'dale or TREK, Kona etc. RockShox died being incapable
    of lowering their prices to get market share back from the really low cost Asian clone shocks. The
    whole industry needs an enema and the Semi-Bents are a test to see if bents will be the next big
    thing in bicycles to pick up from the Mtb. The JIT idea is fine, but you still have a huge over
    supply problem and bike prices are still going lower. The only solution is to restrict supply and
    limit supply of models in their class....and that won't happen now that Communist China and India
    are churning out bikes that a few years ago only Taiwan made.

    Bents and E-Bikes are the only way left to go IF companies want to keep their profit margins at the
    pre-2000 levels.

    I see a parellel between what happened in the PC Industry and the DF Industry, in both cases supply
    far exceeded need to the point prices crashed. Quality had to get better to set one PC apart from
    the others and they all got better...then the prices fell again. DFs are going the same way, the
    companies are rushing to add more features and quality hoping that will get more bikes sold and
    because they are ALL doing it...better bikes but the prices keep falling.

    As gasoline prices rise and remain high, E-Bikes will takeoff and once U try them, you won't go back
    to pedal only bikes (if or when) gas prices fall. China has 100s of E-Bike companies all ready to
    flood the U.S. market with low cost bikes. IT is our future and E-Bents will be a close second,,,but
    the E-Bents won't be the newest flavor till AFTER a few hundred thousand E-Bikes are in daily use.
    ---------------------------------------
    "John Riley" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:[email protected]...
    > Complaints about lack of innovation from the company that is afraid to do recumbents:
    >
    >
    http://www.bicycleretailer.com/bicycleretailer/headlines/article_display.jsp ?vnu_content_id=1852559
     
  3. Tom Sherman

    Tom Sherman Guest

    Joshua Goldberg wrote:
    >
    > this is a No-BRAINer, the Mtb has run its design course and in the past 2 years Mtb sales have
    > bottomed out in North America. Consumers have realized they can get a Mtb from Wal-Mart that is as
    > good or sometimes better than the hi-priced C'dale or TREK, Kona etc....

    I have yet to see a discount store bike that has anywhere near the quality of components or frame
    construction as those from manufacturers such as Cannondale or Trek.

    The only solution is to restrict supply and
    > limit supply of models in their class....and that won't happen now that Communist China and India
    > are churning out bikes that a few years ago only Taiwan made....

    A solution would be import tariffs based on wages, worker protection laws, and environmental
    standards in the country of origin.

    Tom Sherman - Various HPV's Quad Cities USA (Illinois side)
     
  4. R.White

    R.White Guest

    "Joshua Goldberg" <[email protected]> wrote in message
    news:<0V%[email protected]>...
    > this is a No-BRAINer, the Mtb has run its design course and in the past 2 years Mtb sales have
    > bottomed out in North America. Consumers have realized they can get a Mtb from Wal-Mart that is as
    > good or sometimes better than the hi-priced C'dale or TREK, Kona etc.

    Hmm, you must have a very different Wal-Mart from the one where I shop. While the bikes are getting
    better, they're are still closer to junk than to Cannondale or Trek, etc.
     
  5. ">
    > Hmm, you must have a very different Wal-Mart from the one where I shop. While the bikes are
    > getting better, they're are still closer to junk than to Cannondale or Trek, etc.

    Yes but try to convince your typical unwashed public of that. If it has 2 round wheels a shock or
    two and perhaps a fancy seat and costs 100 bucks. How do you justify paying $500 for a Cannondale or
    Trek? It's the old Beta VHS story again. Beta was technically superior, but cost a few dollars more.
    VHS was not quite as good, but acceptable and cost a little less. When was the last time you saw a
    BETA machine? The general public doesn't really care that much about quality, they just want
    something that does the job, at a good price. Bicycles are a commodity item now, soon they will be
    sold by the pound. Denny in Sayre, Pa "Bent but not broken" www.recumbentstuff.com
     
  6. Jim H

    Jim H Guest

    The analogy with the PC business is apt. In the early days we had a whole zoo of competing PC
    designs - Apple, Radio Shack, TI, Commodore, Amiga - you all remember, don't you? Especially frrom a
    software perspective, this made everything unnecessarily expensive. Eventually the IBM platform
    dominated the ecosystem and from that point on, PCs did indeed become a commodity. Today, not only
    are they all functionally alike, they're all better than they need to be. And a furious
    cost-reduction competition is killing off manufacturers one by one.

    I guess a product becomes a commodity when the design issues have been settled, and there are
    no more secrets in its manufacture, no special knowledge or tooling that a new player can't
    get ahold of.

    But 'bents aren't going to become a commodity until one design dominates the market, and that
    doesn't seem likely to happen any time soon. The 'bent market today reminds me of the PC 'zoo' of
    the 80s. I hope it stays that way forever!
     
  7. John Riley

    John Riley Guest

    Denny Voorhees wrote:
    >
    > ">
    > > Hmm, you must have a very different Wal-Mart from the one where I shop. While the bikes are
    > > getting better, they're are still closer to junk than to Cannondale or Trek, etc.
    >
    > Yes but try to convince your typical unwashed public of that. If it has 2 round wheels a shock or
    > two and perhaps a fancy seat and costs 100 bucks. How do you justify paying $500 for a Cannondale
    > or Trek?
    [...]

    All the more so, now that some of those department store bikes say "Schwinn". I see they now have
    Schwinns at Canadian Tire.

    John Riley
     
  8. But first, he said, suppliers must move their manufacturing operations to a just-in-time process.
    That requires the industry to improve its planning, tooling and a more refined system for new
    product development.

    Efficient, just-in-time manufacturing on the part of suppliers, partnered with early trend spotting
    and reporting by specialty retailers, will improve sales, increase market share and profitability
    for the industry, he said

    Of Lo's comments this is IMO most important to the retailer. My largest selling bike is a
    bike that for the last three years they have sold thru by March. I'm almost out of
    them...again. Its a bike not sold by the mass marketers...(not a recumbent) I have watched
    numerous manufacturers "shoot themselves in the foot" in the last 25 years.

    Jude....///Bacchetta AERO St. Michaels and Tilghman Island.. Maryland Wheel Doctor Cycle and Sports,
    Inc 1-800-586-6645 "John Riley" <[email protected]> wrote in message
    news:[email protected]...
    > Complaints about lack of innovation from the company that is afraid to do recumbents:
    >
    >
    http://www.bicycleretailer.com/bicycleretailer/headlines/article_display.jsp ?vnu_content_id=1852559
     
  9. Edward Wong

    Edward Wong Guest

    > I have yet to see a discount store bike that has anywhere near the quality of components or frame
    > construction as those from manufacturers such as Cannondale or Trek.

    Let's not allow this thread to degrade into a "department store bikes are junk" discussion. While
    discount store bikes are "generally not as good", they are getting better and better. Frames are
    made in the same factories in Taiwan or China as the Treks and other makes and are of acceptable
    quality. Bikes from stores such as The Sports Authority now sport component names that were found
    only in LBS bought bikes. "Rock Shox", "Ritchie", "Acera/Alivio/Deore", "SRAM 3.0/5.0", etc. My
    belief is to buy from the specialize bike dealers but then again, for many people, the "x" Mart
    special is just fine for the intended use.

    Now back to our main topic.

    Edward Wong Orlando, FL
     
  10. Mike Warner

    Mike Warner Guest

    R.White wrote:

    > "Joshua Goldberg" <[email protected]> wrote in message
    > news:<0V%[email protected]>...
    >> this is a No-BRAINer, the Mtb has run its design course and in the past 2 years Mtb sales have
    >> bottomed out in North America. Consumers have realized they can get a Mtb from Wal-Mart that is
    >> as good or sometimes better than the hi-priced C'dale or TREK, Kona etc.
    >
    > Hmm, you must have a very different Wal-Mart from the one where I shop. While the bikes are
    > getting better, they're are still closer to junk than to Cannondale or Trek, etc.

    I bought a Royce Union ATB at Fred Meyer for 180.00. It's a great street bike. Large-diameter
    aluminum frame and way-sufficient components. It's got the best brakes I've ever used on a bicycle.
    Bikes in the same line-up have gotten cheaper and better since I bought this one.

    You pay a very dear premium for a functionally small increment in usability when you go from a
    180.00 mass-market ATB to a 600.00 Cannondale. You're paying for something which is just too subtle
    for most people to appreciate.

    The situation is analogous to road groups. A long time ago I had to have Campagnolo Record, Super
    Record, Dura-Ace--all that stuff. Then one day I woke up and realized that, from the standpoint of
    MY performance, all this stuff was just JEWELRY. After that, I went for a good frame and cheaper, no
    less sufficent, components.

    mc
    --
    Replace "crap" with "warnerm" in my email addr
     
  11. Edward Wong

    Edward Wong Guest

    > I bought a Royce Union ATB at Fred Meyer for 180.00. It's a great street bike. Large-diameter
    > aluminum frame and way-sufficient components. It's got the best brakes I've ever used on a
    > bicycle. Bikes in the same line-up have gotten cheaper and better since I bought this one.
    >
    > You pay a very dear premium for a functionally small increment in usability when you go from a
    > 180.00 mass-market ATB to a 600.00 Cannondale. You're paying for something which is just too
    > subtle for most people to appreciate.
    >
    > The situation is analogous to road groups. A long time ago I had to have Campagnolo Record, Super
    > Record, Dura-Ace--all that stuff. Then one day I woke up and realized that, from the standpoint of
    > MY performance, all this stuff was just JEWELRY. After that, I went for a good frame and cheaper,
    > no less sufficent, components.
    >
    > mc

    Agreed on all points. My Lightning T-Bolt's component list reads like they came off a $109.00
    WalMart MTB but yet they've remained very reliable even after 7500 miles. Even the chain is still
    the original one. No complaints here:)

    Edward Wong Orlando, FL
     
  12. Tom Sherman

    Tom Sherman Guest

    Mike Warner wrote:
    > ... I bought a Royce Union ATB at Fred Meyer for 180.00. It's a great street bike. Large-diameter
    > aluminum frame and way-sufficient components. It's got the best brakes I've ever used on a
    > bicycle. Bikes in the same line-up have gotten cheaper and better since I bought this one.
    >
    > You pay a very dear premium for a functionally small increment in usability when you go from a
    > 180.00 mass-market ATB to a 600.00 Cannondale. You're paying for something which is just too
    > subtle for most people to appreciate.

    Ride both a $180 bike from a discount store and a $600 MTB from a LBS off-road and see which one
    holds up better.

    Of course, part of the cost savings of the discount store bikes is that the workers manufacturing
    them in mainland China typically make the equivalent of $0.20-0.50/hour (US) while in Taiwan the
    workers in bicycle factories typically make $10.00-15.00/hour (US).

    Taiwan is also a democracy, while mainland China is a hybrid between command economy (Leninism)
    and fascism.

    For these reasons, I prefer to purchase bicycles made in CE, the US, Japan, or Taiwan, but
    not China.

    Tom Sherman - Various HPV's Quad Cities USA (Illinois side)
     
  13. Skip

    Skip Guest

    "Edward Wong" <[email protected]> wrote in message
    news:[email protected]... <snip>
    > My belief is to buy from the specialize bike dealers but then again, for
    > many people, the "x" Mart special is just fine for the intended use.
    >
    My son worked a an "X" Mart and put bikes together for them. Neither my son or his co-workers had
    any experience or real training in putting a bike together the way it should be if it is to be sold
    to the general public.

    Keep that in mind when you are buying one of these bikes for your kid to save a hundred bucks or so.

    skip
     
  14. Edward Wong

    Edward Wong Guest

    Tom Sherman <[email protected]> wrote in message news:<[email protected]>...
    > Mike Warner wrote:
    > > ... I bought a Royce Union ATB at Fred Meyer for 180.00. It's a great street bike.
    > > Large-diameter aluminum frame and way-sufficient components. It's got the best brakes I've
    > > ever used on a bicycle. Bikes in the same line-up have gotten cheaper and better since I
    > > bought this one.
    > >
    > > You pay a very dear premium for a functionally small increment in usability when you go from a
    > > 180.00 mass-market ATB to a 600.00 Cannondale. You're paying for something which is just too
    > > subtle for most people to appreciate.
    >
    > Ride both a $180 bike from a discount store and a $600 MTB from a LBS off-road and see which one
    > holds up better.
    >
    > Of course, part of the cost savings of the discount store bikes is that the workers manufacturing
    > them in mainland China typically make the equivalent of $0.20-0.50/hour (US) while in Taiwan the
    > workers in bicycle factories typically make $10.00-15.00/hour (US).
    >
    > Taiwan is also a democracy, while mainland China is a hybrid between command economy (Leninism)
    > and fascism.
    >
    > For these reasons, I prefer to purchase bicycles made in CE, the US, Japan, or Taiwan, but
    > not China.
    >
    > Tom Sherman - Various HPV's Quad Cities USA (Illinois side)

    If both bikes are ridden in the same conditions and care for the exact same way, then the $600 bike
    has a chance of holding up better. If ridden like most ATB's are, namely on the pavement to ride
    recreationally, to the corner store, to school, etc. then I doubt you'll notice much difference.
    I've seen cheap bikes that look like hell and you can tell it's old, ridden around by some of the
    homeless in my area and they seem to work well. By the same token, I've seen high end bikes that
    sound like the chain is about to fall off or the deraillers need some serious TLC. Lesson learned
    here is that how you treat your equipment is what really matters.

    On the mainland China, I'd cut them some slack. They are changing and coming around. Fifty years or
    so from now when they become the world's pre-eminent super power, we're going to wish they had
    stayed as that backwards, communist country:)

    Edward Wong Orlando, FL
     
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